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 The Pirates of the Caribbean:AWE|Prediction|Tracking Thread 
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Thursday: 20.5m
Friday: 46.7m
Saturday: 50.9m +9.0%
Sunday: 45.2m -11.2%
Monday: 37.9m -18%

OW: 142.8m
4-Day: 180.7m

Tuseday - 10.42m -72.5%
Wednesday - 8.7m - 16.5%
Thurday - 8.24m -5.3%

Friday: 17.22m +109%
Saturday: 25.15m +46%
Sunday: 18.23m -27.5%

Second weekend: 60.6m -57.5%

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Last edited by DIB2 on Tue May 22, 2007 8:10 pm, edited 1 time in total.



Tue May 22, 2007 8:04 am
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Opening 4-day (thu-sun): $150m
Total: $380m

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Tue May 22, 2007 8:26 am
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$397.5 on HSX. This will likley pass the SM3 ADJUSTED price after it opened....

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Tue May 22, 2007 12:27 pm
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With Disney counting all shows between 8pm-4am as Thursday's gross, Thurs gross will be even higher than I first anticipated. It has the usual midnight 9-14 million already in the bank, plus the more mainstream audiance can catch the earlier 8pm shows as well, I think this could easily get above 20 mil and even come close to 25-30 mil for Thursday. But that means the Friday will be about 10-15 lower b/c the midnights won't be counted. (I wonder if BOM will count the midnights as OD?).

Thursday- 25 mil
Friday- 50 mil
Sat - 54 mil
Sun - 47
Monday - 36 mil

5 day gross - 212 mil :ohmy: :ohmy:

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Tue May 22, 2007 12:41 pm
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KC wrote:
With Disney counting all shows between 8pm-4am as Thursday's gross, Thurs gross will be even higher than I first anticipated. It has the usual midnight 9-14 million already in the bank, plus the more mainstream audiance can catch the earlier 8pm shows as well, I think this could easily get above 20 mil and even come close to 25-30 mil for Thursday. But that means the Friday will be about 10-15 lower b/c the midnights won't be counted. (I wonder if BOM will count the midnights as OD?).

Thursday- 25 mil
Friday- 50 mil
Sat - 54 mil
Sun - 47
Monday - 36 mil

5 day gross - 212 mil :ohmy: :ohmy:


Actually, that's 4 days + 4hrs. :tongue: :happy:

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“Gods are great ... but the heart is greater. For it is from our hearts they come, and to our hearts they shall return.”
“We were like gods at the dawning of the world, & our joy was so bright we could see nothing else but the other.”
“There are three things all wise men fear: the sea in storm, a night with no moon, and the anger of a gentle man.”
“You have to pretend you get an endgame. You have to carry on like you will; otherwise, you can't carry on at all.”
"Paper is dead without words / Ink idle without a poem / All the world dead without stories."


Tue May 22, 2007 12:46 pm
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226 4-day! 193 3-day!! (Im including thursday "sneaks" in the 3-day)

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Tue May 22, 2007 12:49 pm
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Zingaling wrote:
Yeah, I'm beginning to think I lowballed the Thursday figure. Big time.


you did :tongue:

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Tue May 22, 2007 1:27 pm
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I don't think I've ever seen more commercials for a movie in my life.

They're feeding the public!!! AND WE'RE EATING IT UP!!!

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Tue May 22, 2007 1:28 pm
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399M on HSX hehe. Will pass SM3 easy.

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Japan Box Office

“Gods are great ... but the heart is greater. For it is from our hearts they come, and to our hearts they shall return.”
“We were like gods at the dawning of the world, & our joy was so bright we could see nothing else but the other.”
“There are three things all wise men fear: the sea in storm, a night with no moon, and the anger of a gentle man.”
“You have to pretend you get an endgame. You have to carry on like you will; otherwise, you can't carry on at all.”
"Paper is dead without words / Ink idle without a poem / All the world dead without stories."


Tue May 22, 2007 2:20 pm
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Pirates to set new record for Digital Releases

At World's End" will be the first feature to be released on more than 1,000 digital cinema screens domestically and will be the first movie to bow on more than 400 screens internationally, Buena Vista Pictures domestic distribution president Chuck Viane said.

As of Monday, "Pirates" was set to open on 1,064 digital cinema screens domestically and an additional 410 internationally. Viane said the number could rise before this weekend's release.

Reuters Pictures

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"It went up 20-something (screens) in the last few hours," he said.




No idea what this means exactly, but there you go.

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Japan Box Office

“Gods are great ... but the heart is greater. For it is from our hearts they come, and to our hearts they shall return.”
“We were like gods at the dawning of the world, & our joy was so bright we could see nothing else but the other.”
“There are three things all wise men fear: the sea in storm, a night with no moon, and the anger of a gentle man.”
“You have to pretend you get an endgame. You have to carry on like you will; otherwise, you can't carry on at all.”
"Paper is dead without words / Ink idle without a poem / All the world dead without stories."


Tue May 22, 2007 3:58 pm
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FYI, according to comingsoon.net, the reason why we have not seen any reviews thus far is not because it hasn't been screened for critics.. it was in fact screened for all critics today and yesterday. However, Disney put an embargo on when they can post their reviews, and that is not until opening day (I am not sure if that means Thursday or Friday)

There are obviously two reasons for this; the first being they don't want reviews to spoil the ending, and the second more likely one is that they are afraid they are going to get some pretty shotty reviews...

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Tue May 22, 2007 5:08 pm
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negative hype kicks in fast and did so forDVC. I think DVC would have opened even higher really.

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Tue May 22, 2007 5:10 pm
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Mannyisthebest wrote:
negative hype kicks in fast and did so forDVC. I think DVC would have opened even higher really.


Well... negative hype didn't seem to effect Dead Man's Chest. I don't see At World's End being effected much, either.

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Tue May 22, 2007 5:11 pm
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Mannyisthebest wrote:
negative hype kicks in fast and did so forDVC. I think DVC would have opened even higher really.


No way wouldn't have seen anything close to a 3 multiplier, I think all the reviews I've read have it better than DMC.


Tue May 22, 2007 5:13 pm
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i dislike reviews when it comes to blockbuster films.


they always go talking about something else but not comment on whether the action was good or not or was it funny or not.

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Tue May 22, 2007 5:22 pm
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well, Variety sorta liked it;

http://www.variety.com/review/VE1117933 ... id=31&cs=1

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Tue May 22, 2007 5:30 pm
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Timayd wrote:
Mannyisthebest wrote:
negative hype kicks in fast and did so forDVC. I think DVC would have opened even higher really.


No way wouldn't have seen anything close to a 3 multiplier, I think all the reviews I've read have it better than DMC.


BS

RT

DVC-25%
DMC-54%

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Last edited by mdana on Tue May 22, 2007 6:28 pm, edited 1 time in total.



Tue May 22, 2007 5:36 pm
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The people who say the plot is too confusing or convoluted didn't pay attention to the details....maybe it's a fanboy/fangirl obsession, but these POTC films do well despite the bad reviews....DMC was critically savaged and look at how it did.


Tue May 22, 2007 5:36 pm
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Critics want quality mixed in with entertainment, but its very hard to do, really.

People just want entertainment.

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Tue May 22, 2007 5:38 pm
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tina_als_girl wrote:

BTW... Can a score get an Oscar nomination even if it's for a sequel? I don't know how that all works. Is there some kind of "must contain something-% new music" qualification? If so, I'm betting this score would be eligible.


There is a precedent for this. LotR FotR was nominated. The next year, the Academy was thinking about disqualifying LotR TTT because it had similar music as FotR. But the New Line studio countered that TTT was 87% new music. The Academy finally decided to treat each movie on a case-by-case basis. So, they looked at the case of TTT, and decided that it was new enough to be elidgible to nominate. However, by the time the Academy decided all this the nomination deadline had passed, so in the end TTT wasn't nominated. :( Not that it would have mattered. No way would it have won. The Academy and the rest of the movie world was waiting for RotK, and everybody knew it.

So, the answer is, there is no hard and fast rule. We'll have to wait until Oscar season.

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Tue May 22, 2007 6:19 pm
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So why is disney counting 8pm-4am as Thursday. Shows starting at 10am should be counted as Friday.

I bet BOM will do it the right way, unlike Disney. :biggrin:

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Tue May 22, 2007 7:55 pm
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choubachou wrote:
So why is disney counting 8pm-4am as Thursday. Shows starting at 10am should be counted as Friday.

I bet BOM will do it the right way, unlike Disney. :biggrin:



How exactly?
BOM is only going to have the figures that Disney provides, and there is no way of them figuring out what portion of Thursday's gross was made after midnight that night

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Tue May 22, 2007 8:00 pm
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Disney should just tell everyone that it made $40 mil from 8pm-4am on Thursday...

And then release the real figures in 10 years

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Tue May 22, 2007 8:02 pm
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Doesn't BOM do its own estimates through various contacts etc?

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Tue May 22, 2007 8:02 pm
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Squee wrote:
Doesn't BOM do its own estimates through various contacts etc?


Yes, but they are not going to go through every ticket and figure out what was made before 12, and what was made after, especially since Disney is not requiring them to do so

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