For those of you interested...Visions Fantastic is supposed to have live coverage from the red carpet in less than an hour.
http://www.visionsfantastic.com/main.php?page=premiere


Also, the lines to get into Disneyland this morning:
http://darkbeer.smugmug.com/gallery/2871600#154127976
People were trying to get a spot along the red carpet.

Part of the red carpet this morning...
http://darkbeer.smugmug.com/gallery/2871600#154129352

More pics:
http://visionsfantastic.com/main.php?page=piratephotos


Even more pics:
http://micechat.com/forums/showpost.php ... tcount=172

I want to be at the premiere.....


372M on HSX btw.

New Prediction:

OD: 57m
Sat: 49.0m (-14%)
Sun: 39.2m (-20%)
Mon: 29.4m (-25%)

3-day OW: 145.2m
4-day: 174.6m

Domestic TotaL: 384.8m (2.65 muLtipLier)
Overseas: 600m
WorLdwide: 984.8m

the premiere is tonight?

Yes, at Disneyland.

Nice jump on HSX.

$379M

I believe this is the second highest price ever, behind Spider-Man 3's $414M. But we know how Spider-Man 3 turned out, so...

Positive review

4 out of 5 from sunday mirror

i hope this means a good start

:-D Keeps going up.

HSX: $382M

wowhowow

you mean wawaweewa!

I mean awesome.

I doubt it means much.

Mark Adams/Daily Mirror

AWE

WHAT'S BAD? The last movie might well have been a worldwide box-office success, but for many critics and cinema-goers it was never completely satisfying. There are even more storylines here that need resolving and Verbinski is in no hurry to wrap things up speedily. With a running time of just over two hours and 48 minutes, make sure you time your toilet breaks.

HOW LONG IS IT? An epic 168 mins.

FINAL VERDICT: Raise the skull-and-crossbones... Captain Jack is back! This is a real old-fashioned epic pirate adventure. It's a piratical hit.

DMC

BAD? Yes the film is terrific fun, but there's no getting away from the fact that at well over two hours it comes pretty close to overstaying its welcome.

The meandering story is all well and good but there are times when interest lags and it is only the arrival of yet another wonderfully choreographed action scene that you find yourself back on course. However, things are set up nicely for Pirates of the Caribbean 3, due to be released next May.

HOW LONG IS IT? An epically entertaining 150 mins.

FINAL VERDICT It shivered my, timbers! A superb swashbuckling romp.

It's basically the same review.

What would make a difference is critics who previously panned or liked DMC, changing their opinions. Then we could tell if the critical mass was better or worse than DMC. This is just more of the same.

Yo Ho Yo Ho -- Don't get between a Pirate and His Opening Weekend BO. A look at the numbers says ...
-- shipwreckedcrew, May 20, 21:32
If a mixed-reviewed SPID3 and a poor-reviewed SHRK3 can do the numbers they did, it doesn't matter what the reviews are for PIRT3 -- not that they were ever relevant to opening weekend prospects -- BO records are going to fall.

SPID3 just did a PTA of $35,400. Breaking it down by day:

Fri -- $14,000
Sat -- $12,000
Sun -- $ 9,400

PIRT2 did a PTA of $32,800 last summer. Breaking it down by day:

Fri -- $13,400
Sat -- $10,800
Sun -- $ 8,600

SPID3 and SHRK3 strongly suggest that this is going to be a huge summer.

But, PIRT3 coming out Memorial Day Weekend, less than a year after PIRT2 was a huge hit, portends a gigundous weekend. I can't see how it fails to do SPID3 numbers. I'm going to put it in the same number of theaters -- 4250 -- for purposes of the math. And I'm going to give it a 4% edge on SPID3 simply because Disney brings in more kiddies and women than a comic book character.

That gives me a Friday PTA of $14,550.

Now, using the % decline of PIRT2 from Fri to Sat, and Sat to Sun:

Fri -- $14,550
Sat -- $11,735 (-19.4%)
Sun -- $ 9,340 (-20.4%)

3 Day Tot: $35,625 x 4250 = $151.4

But, here's the kicker in the adjust math -- the Monday holiday.

Looking back at openers over the last 5-6 years, its pretty consistent for the Sun-to-Mem.Mon decline. For the ok openers (X3, Longest Yard, Day After Tomm, Bruce Almighty, Pearl Harbor), the decline Sun-to-Mem.Mon is right around 20%. Madagascar was only 11%. SHRK2 in its second weekend in 2004 only had only a 5% falloff from Sun-to-Mem.Mon).

Splitting the difference in there, I'm going to put the Sun-to-Mem.Mon falloff for PIRT3at 15%.

Mon -- $7,940.

That's another $33.7 million, making the 4 day total BO $184.8 million.

And the adjust would be $443.50.

This one isn't evey a close call.



**The call he/she is refering to, is the call on HSX for PIRATE 3's 4-day of $160M.

Unfortunately he didn't take Thursday preview into account, which won't get multiplied by 2.4. Every dime Pirates earns on Thursday between 8pm to 4am will hurt the overall adjust on Monday.

its 4 day will be round 140-145 million but its total at monday will be more like 160-170.

Maybe they are expecting the 8PM-12AM shows to be nearly as big as a weekend day. All those shows are going to be sold out, a vast majority at least, so it will clearly be a huge number. If Sith got 16M from Midnights alone (nearly all sold out), what could it have done with an extra 4hrs of sell outs?

Well, since even Disney is counting Thursday sneaks as its own day...

Thursday - $13 million
Friday - $47 million
Saturday - $48 million (+2%)
Sunday - $38 million (-20%)
Monday - $30 million (-20%)

3-Day - $133 million (Total - $146 million)
4-Day - $163 million (Total - $176 million)

The Sunday Mirror is just a tabloid. It's not quite as bad as The Sun or The Daily Star, but it's still one of the papers it's easy to get an enthusiastic poster blurb from. In this case, I imagine we Brits will be seeing the quote-friendly (if somewhat nonsensical) "It's a piratical hit!" on buses and TV spots for a while.

Regarding the movie's actual quality, this review means very little.

A Paul Ross quote is a guarantee.

ha, I was expecting an increase now as well

PIrates is tracking super high amazing jumbo numbers.....


MTC:
175 PIRATES (4 Day)
5 BUG (4 day)

RS:
170 PIRATES (4 Day)
5 BUG (4 Day)

http://talk.hsx.com/films/post.htm?0521120152.notfabio

That would mean near 200 million in 6 days!!

bwhahahahaha!!!!!! time to continue the trend of crushing the tracking.

Pirates will crash, kill and destroy this weekend

my god the 4-10 day grosses are going to be massive if it gets 170-175 million in the 4-day.


You could see near 195-200 million in 6 days.
210 million in 7 days
and about 265-270 million atleast by the end of its 2nd weekend or its 10th day.

however after that i don't see it grossing any faster the DMC or Rots..