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The Pirates of the Caribbean:AWE|Prediction|Tracking Thread

Author	Message
Sandy Full Fledged Member Joined: Tue Jul 11, 2006 6:30 pm Posts: 59	You can see more previews on comingsoon.net - really great stuff from AWE.
Fri May 11, 2007 6:35 pm

enrico Full Fledged Member Joined: Wed Jul 19, 2006 8:25 pm Posts: 60	53 OD 129 3 day 165 4 day 365 total
Fri May 11, 2007 7:16 pm

Squee Squee Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 10:01 pm Posts: 13270 Location: Yuppieville	Magnus wrote: Despite what many think, POTC2 was not very well-liked. People liked it, but many were dissapointed with it. If AWE doesn't really raise the bar from DMC, I think people are going to be even more dissapointed. And the legs were pretty good with Dead Man's Chest. I think Pirates 3 will make the most of the big 3 with around 430. Which looks bad considering its going to make 193 3-day! _________________ *Setting most people on fire is wrong.* Proud Founder of the "Community of Squee."
Fri May 11, 2007 7:53 pm

Biggestgeekever I heet the canadian! Joined: Mon Jan 23, 2006 12:58 am Posts: 5192 Location: The Great _______	Magnus wrote: Squee wrote: And the legs were pretty good with Dead Man's Chest. I think Pirates 3 will make the most of the big 3 with around 430. Which looks bad considering its going to make 193 3-day! I feel though that POTC2 legs were good mianly because it was the last blockbuster of the summer(aka lack of competition), plus it had summer weekdays. I mean, it had solid WOM but I feel that many were dissapointed in it. It was solid enough I feel for people to be encourage to see DMC, but it wasn't good enough I feel to get everyone excited about AWE. It faces a good amount of competition this time around. Knocked Up/Brooks/Gracie will combine for 45m+ I think, maybe 50m+. POTC2 faced 43m worth of competition on its 2nd wekeend, but keep in mind that POTC3 opens on Memorial Day weekend which will make its 2nd weekend drop big no matter what. The three films opening June 8th will combine for 85m+(despite what some say, those three films are going to do well on OW). POTC2 faced 60m+ competition on its 3rd weekend. And then on June 15th, F42/Nancy Drew/I can Never be your woman should combine for 80m+. POTC2 faced about 50m of competition on its 4th weekend. With Memorial Day weekend + tougher competition, I think POTC3 won't be getting good legs. I've said it before and I'll say it again, June 8th openers are not going to be huge by any stretch of the imagination. I can see maybe 70 mil coming from them if they do the best they can do, but 85mil+? There's no logic that can justify that.
Fri May 11, 2007 8:11 pm

Biggestgeekever I heet the canadian! Joined: Mon Jan 23, 2006 12:58 am Posts: 5192 Location: The Great _______	Magnus wrote: O13 = 41m Surfs Up = 28m Hostel = 17m 41m + 28m + 17m = 86m. 86m > 85m. Thus, 85m+. Once again, there's no logic that justifies the numbers for either Ocean's 13 and Hostel 2. Hell, I could easily see both doing half of those figures (Hostel 2 is almost certain to do so). Surf's Up is a wildcard, but I don't believe the trailers are getting a good enough reaction for it to open that highly.
Fri May 11, 2007 8:16 pm

Biggestgeekever I heet the canadian! Joined: Mon Jan 23, 2006 12:58 am Posts: 5192 Location: The Great _______	Magnus wrote: Biggestgeekever wrote: Once again, there's no logic that justifies the numbers for either Ocean's 13 and Hostel 2. Hell, I could easily see both doing half of those figures (Hostel 2 is almost certain to do so). Surf's Up is a wildcard, but I don't believe the trailers are getting a good enough reaction for it to open that highly. False. Surfs Up marketing has been great and kids/families will love it. 28m OW. Ocean's 13 has been great and the return to Vegas will gain interest. Plus with a summer release it'll be more frontloaded than O12 which opened in December, thus I expect a slightly higher OW with A LOT lower legs though(even with good WOM). 41m OW. Hostel Part II has been getting some buzz and a lack of a big horror film in a while I think will help this get 17m OW. Hostel 2 and Ocean's 13 both suffer from the biggest box-office poison for sequels: poor word-of-mouth for their predecessor's. That's proven time and time again to lead to much weaker openings. Hostel 2 isn't going to get a big increase due to the lack of big horror films. If that was the case, 28 Weeks Later would be making 40 mil this weekend. And I haven't seen anything indicating that Surf's Up is being marketing well. And let's face it, the penguins in this film are pretty ugly looking, kid lovable they aren't.
Fri May 11, 2007 8:45 pm

Corpse Don't Dream It, Be It Joined: Wed Aug 02, 2006 12:45 pm Posts: 37162 Location: The Graveyard	Surf's Up wont do well because of Shrek 3. Oceans 13 will be lucky to hit 30M. Hostel will do low teens at best. 65-70 from them. If people were disappointed in DMC, DVD sales didnt show it. It beat GOF's first week sales, and it's total sales. _________________ Japan Box Office *“Gods are great ... but the heart is greater. For it is from our hearts they come, and to our hearts they shall return.”* *“We were like gods at the dawning of the world, & our joy was so bright we could see nothing else but the other.”* *“There are three things all wise men fear: the sea in storm, a night with no moon, and the anger of a gentle man.”* *“You have to pretend you get an endgame. You have to carry on like you will; otherwise, you can't carry on at all.”* *"Paper is dead without words / Ink idle without a poem / All the world dead without stories."*
Fri May 11, 2007 9:54 pm

Excel Superfreak Joined: Sat Aug 20, 2005 12:54 am Posts: 22190 Location: Places	hahaha...ocens will do north of 40 million. huge starts it has. and surfs up will do 30's. _________________ Ari Emmanuel wrote: I'd rather marry lindsay Lohan than represent Mel Gibson.
Fri May 11, 2007 10:13 pm

Corpse Don't Dream It, Be It Joined: Wed Aug 02, 2006 12:45 pm Posts: 37162 Location: The Graveyard	Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End Symbol: PIRT3 Status: Active Genre: Action/Adventure Phase: Release Price: H$363.51 Change: +1 1/4 Volume: 4,111,484 Buy 1000Buy 25000Sell 1000Sell 25000QuickTraderShort 1000Short 25000Cover 1000Cover 25000 Gross: $0 Release Date: 05/25/2007 It just keeps increasing. _________________ Japan Box Office *“Gods are great ... but the heart is greater. For it is from our hearts they come, and to our hearts they shall return.”* *“We were like gods at the dawning of the world, & our joy was so bright we could see nothing else but the other.”* *“There are three things all wise men fear: the sea in storm, a night with no moon, and the anger of a gentle man.”* *“You have to pretend you get an endgame. You have to carry on like you will; otherwise, you can't carry on at all.”* *"Paper is dead without words / Ink idle without a poem / All the world dead without stories."*
Fri May 11, 2007 10:41 pm

BJ Killing With Kindness Joined: Mon Oct 11, 2004 8:57 pm Posts: 25035 Location: Anchorage,Alaska	Updated ................. Release Date: May 25, 2007 Distributor: Buena Vista Pictures (Disney) Production Company(s): Jerry Bruckheimer Films Director: Gore Verbinski Producer(s): Jerry Bruckheimer Executive/Associate Producer(s): Bruce Hendricks, Peter Kohn, Eric McLeod, Chad Oman, Pat Sandston, Mike Stenson Screen Writter(s)/ Writting Credits: Ted Elliot, Terry Rossio, Stuart Beattie, Jay Wolpert Music/Composer: Hans Zimmer Genre: Adventure, Action, Comedy, Fantasy, Others MPAA Rating: PG-13, for intense sequences of action/adventure violence and some frightening images. Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End Cast: Johnny Depp , Jack Sparrow Keira Knightley , Elizabeth Swann Orlando Bloom , Will Turner Geoffrey Rush , Barbossa Bill Kighy , Davy Jones Tom Hollander , Lord Cutler Beckett Jack Davenport , Admiral James Norrington Jonathan Pryce , Governor Weatherby Swann Stellan SkarsgÃƒÂ¥rd , 'Bootstrap' Bill Turner Kevin McNally , Joshamee Gibbs Chow Yun-Fat , Captain Sao Feng Others Offical Wesite: Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End Official Website Plot Outline: After Elizabeth (Keira Knightly), Will (Orlando Bloom), and Captain Barbossa (Geoffrey Rush) rescue Captain Jack Sparrow (Johnny Depp) from the clutches of the Kraken, they must face their foes, Davey Jones (Bill Nighy) and Lord Cutler Beckett (Tom Hollander). Beckett, now with control of Jones' heart, forms a dark alliance with him in order to rule the seas and wipe out the last of the Pirates. Now, Jack, Barbossa, Will, Elizabeth, Tia Delma, and crew must call the Pirate Lords from the four corners of the globe, including the infamous Sao Feng (Chow-Yun Fat), to a gathering that will make their final stand against Beckett, Jones, Norrington, the Flying Dutchman, and the entire East India Trading Company. Tagline: At the End of the World, the Adventure Begins. Movie Poster(s): Trailer(s): http://www.themoviebox.net/movies/2007/ ... railer.php T.V. Appearances from the cast: - BJs Prediction: Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End Opening Day: 60.99m 2nd Day: 54.89m -10% Opening Wknd: 165.97m - Fri: 60.99m / Sat: 54.89m -10% / Sun: 50.09m -8% 4-Day-Wknd: 206.03m - Mon: 40.06m -20% 5-Day: 218.84m - Tue: 12.81m -68% 6-Day: 229.73m - Wed: 10.89m -14% Opening Wk: 240.68m - Thur: 10.95m +.5% 2nd Wknd: 80.00m -51.5% - Fri: 21.95m +100% / Sat: 36.25m +65% / Sun: 21.80m -40% 11-Day: 327.63m - Mon: 6.94m -68% 12-Day: 334.44m - Tue: 6.81m -2% 13-Day: 340.08m - Wed: 5.64m -16% 2nd Wk: 346.08m - Thur: 6.00m +5% 3rd Wknd: 40.00m -50% - Fri: 12.00m +100% / Sat: 16.95m +45% / Sun: 11.05m -34% Wk-1: 240.68m - Wknd: 165.97m - 4-Day-Wknd: 206.03m \| Total: 240.68m Wk-2: 105.40m - Wknd: 80.00m \| Total: 346.08m Wk-3: 54.00m - Wknd: 40.00m \| Total: 400.08m Wk-4: 29.95m - Wknd: 21.45m \| Total: 430.03m Wk-5: 20.96m - Wknd: 14.29m \| Total: 450.99m Wk-6: 18.20m - Wknd: 10.64m \| Total: 469.19m Wk-7: 12.19m - Wknd: 8.01m \| Total: 481.38m Wk-8: 6.17m - Wknd: 4.00m \| Total: 487.55m Wk-9: 4.05m - Wknd: 2.60m \| Total: 491.60m Wk-10: 2.97m - Wknd: 2.00m \| Total: 494.57m Wk-11: 2.18m - Wknd: 1.40m \| Total: 496.75m Wk-12: 1.57m - Wknd: 1.00m \| Total: 498.32m Wk-13: 1.20m - Wknd: .80m \| Total: 499.52m Wk-14: .86m - Wknd: .65m \| Total: 500.38m Wk-15: 1.80m - Wknd: 1.20m - 4-Day-Wknd: 1.60m \| Total: 502.18m Wk-16: 1.00m - Wknd: .69m \| Total: 503.18m Wk-17: .85m - Wknd: .65m \| Total: 504.03m Wk-18: .59m - Wknd: .46m \| Total: 504.62m Wk-19: .38m - Wknd: .29m \| Total: 505.00m Wk-20: .26m - Wknd: .21m \| Total: 505.26m Wk-21: .20m - Wknd: .16m \| Total: 505.46m Money Made After Wk-20: ~.5m Estimated Wks in theaters: 29 Days to 50m: 1-Days - 60.99m Days to 100m: 2-Days - 115.88m Days to 150m: 3-Days - 165.97m Days to 200m: 4-Days - 206.03m Days to 250m: 8-Days - 262.63m Days to 300m: 10-Days - 320.68m Days to 350m: 15-Days - 358.08m Days to 400m: 21-Days - 400.08m Days to 450m: 35-Days - 450.99m Days to 500m: 94-Days - 500.17m Domestic Total: 506m International Total: 694m World Wide Total: 1,200b Multiplyer: 3.04 Posted Predictions: May Update #1 Predictions for Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End Opening Wknd: Matatonio - 99.9m Excel - 110m O - 112m The Dark Shape - 123m Zingaling - 123m Insomniacdude - 125m Trixster - 125m Nazgul 9 - 125m Riggs27 - 127m Biggestgeekever - 127m Magnus - 127m Misutaa Supaakora - 128m 2001 - 129m Flava'd - 131m MovieDude - 132m Positive Jon - 132.9m Shack - 133m Choubacha - 133m Webslinger - 138m Dr Lecter - 138.3m Enrico - 140m TonightÃ¢â‚¬Â¦Me - 140m Revolutions - 140m Dreamline - 140m DIB2 - 140.5m DP07 - 142m Amer - 143m Corspe - 145m Speevy - 155m BJ - 165.9m Average Opening Wknd Prediction: 132.35m 4-Day-Opening: Excel - 135m Insomniacdude - 150m Misutaa Supaakora - 154m Trixster - 155m Biggestgeekever - 157.5m Magnus - 158m Positive Jon - 158.5m Flava'd - 160m MovieDude - 165m Choubacha - 165m Dreamline - 165m Webslinger - 165m Corpse - 170m DIB2 - 174.5m BJ - 206.3m Average 4-Day-Wknd Prediction: 162.59m Domestic Total: Excel - 295m / multiplyer - 2.95 Zingaling - 344m / multiplyer - 2.80 Magnus - 348m / multiplyer - 2.74 Matatonio - 350m / multiplyer - 3.50 Madgez - 360m / multiplyer - Ã¢â‚¬Â¦ Nazgul9 - 365m / multiplyer - 2.92 Shack - 365m / multiplyer - 2.74 2001 - 366m / multiplyer - 2.84 Webslinger - 370m / multiplyer - 2.68 Trixster - 375m / multiplyer - 3.00 Misutaa Supaakora - 377m / multiplyer - 2.95 Jawhawk - 377m / multiplyer - Ã¢â‚¬Â¦ Positive Jon - 388.4m / multiplyer - 2.92 Dr. Lecter - 389m / multiplyer - 2.81 Dreamline - 390m / multiplyer - 2.79 Flava'd - 390m / multiplyer - 2.98 Insomniacdude - 390m / multiplyer - 3.12 The Dark Shape - 390m / multiplyer - 3.17 Choubacha - 393m / multiplyer - 2.95 Biggestgeekever - 400m / multiplyer - 3.15 MovieDude - 405m / multiplyer - 3.07 DP07 - 410m / multiplyer - 2.89 Riggs27 - 412m / multiplyer - 3.24 Revolutions - 420m / multiplyer - 3.00 O - 422m / multiplyer - 3.77 Speevy - 430m / multiplyer - 2.77 Corpse - 440m / multiplyer - 3.03 DIB2 - 440m / multiplyer - 3.13 TonightÃ¢â‚¬Â¦Me - 445m / multiplyer - 3.18 Enrico - 450-500m / multiplyer - 3.21-3.57 Amer - 501m / multiplyer - 3.50 BJ - 506m / multiplyer - 3.05 Average Domestic Total Prediction: 396.98m Average Multiplyer: 3.019 Other News: - Competition: Spider Man 3. Shrek the Third, and various June releases. ________________ Pics: _________________ For your predicting pleasure. BJs Prediction: 165m-180m \| 500m-560m 4-day: 200m+ ............ _________________ The Force Awakens
Sun May 13, 2007 3:53 pm

Squee Squee Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 10:01 pm Posts: 13270 Location: Yuppieville	hey hey, put mine in. 193 3-day _________________ *Setting most people on fire is wrong.* Proud Founder of the "Community of Squee."
Sun May 13, 2007 3:55 pm

BJ Killing With Kindness Joined: Mon Oct 11, 2004 8:57 pm Posts: 25035 Location: Anchorage,Alaska	Squee wrote: hey hey, put mine in. 193 3-day I need the whole prediction 3-day, 4-day, top out. _________________ The Force Awakens
Sun May 13, 2007 3:57 pm

Squee Squee Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 10:01 pm Posts: 13270 Location: Yuppieville	BJ wrote: Squee wrote: hey hey, put mine in. 193 3-day I need the whole prediction 3-day, 4-day, top out. FINE! 4-day 226 final: 460 _________________ *Setting most people on fire is wrong.* Proud Founder of the "Community of Squee."
Sun May 13, 2007 3:58 pm

Biggestgeekever I heet the canadian! Joined: Mon Jan 23, 2006 12:58 am Posts: 5192 Location: The Great _______	Biggestgeekever wrote: Hmm, my multi looks way too big. I'm raising my 3-day and 4-day to 135/168, total remains the same. Argh BJ.
Sun May 13, 2007 4:00 pm

BJ Killing With Kindness Joined: Mon Oct 11, 2004 8:57 pm Posts: 25035 Location: Anchorage,Alaska	Biggestgeekever wrote: Biggestgeekever wrote: Hmm, my multi looks way too big. I'm raising my 3-day and 4-day to 135/168, total remains the same. Argh BJ. patients _________________ The Force Awakens
Sun May 13, 2007 4:05 pm

Timayd The 5th B-Sharp Joined: Sun Mar 19, 2006 8:48 am Posts: 1506	139/152/377
Sun May 13, 2007 4:09 pm

Biggestgeekever I heet the canadian! Joined: Mon Jan 23, 2006 12:58 am Posts: 5192 Location: The Great _______	BJ wrote: Biggestgeekever wrote: Biggestgeekever wrote: Hmm, my multi looks way too big. I'm raising my 3-day and 4-day to 135/168, total remains the same. Argh BJ. patients Argh, very well. The front page of this thread kicks ass enough for me to wait.
Sun May 13, 2007 4:11 pm

BJ Killing With Kindness Joined: Mon Oct 11, 2004 8:57 pm Posts: 25035 Location: Anchorage,Alaska	Timayd wrote: 139/152/377 Im not going to accept that 4-day prediction its beyond stupid. _________________ The Force Awakens
Sun May 13, 2007 4:11 pm

BJ Killing With Kindness Joined: Mon Oct 11, 2004 8:57 pm Posts: 25035 Location: Anchorage,Alaska	Biggestgeekever wrote: BJ wrote: Biggestgeekever wrote: Biggestgeekever wrote: Hmm, my multi looks way too big. I'm raising my 3-day and 4-day to 135/168, total remains the same. Argh BJ. patients Argh, very well. The front page of this thread kicks ass enough for me to wait. :bows: thankyou, thankyou _________________ The Force Awakens
Sun May 13, 2007 4:14 pm

Box Extraordinary Joined: Sat Oct 16, 2004 12:52 am Posts: 25990	Yeah BJ, that's a kick-ass first post! _________________ In order of preference: Christian, Argos MadGez wrote: Briefs. Am used to them and boxers can get me in trouble it seems. Too much room and maybe the silkiness have created more than one awkward situation. My Box-Office Blog: http://boxofficetracker.blogspot.com/
Sun May 13, 2007 4:15 pm

BJ Killing With Kindness Joined: Mon Oct 11, 2004 8:57 pm Posts: 25035 Location: Anchorage,Alaska	Magnus wrote: Accept this bitch OW: 135m OW(4-day): 165m Total: 370m much better _________________ The Force Awakens
Sun May 13, 2007 4:17 pm

BJ Killing With Kindness Joined: Mon Oct 11, 2004 8:57 pm Posts: 25035 Location: Anchorage,Alaska	Box wrote: Yeah BJ, that's a kick-ass first post! _________________ The Force Awakens
Sun May 13, 2007 4:18 pm

Timayd The 5th B-Sharp Joined: Sun Mar 19, 2006 8:48 am Posts: 1506	BJ wrote: Timayd wrote: 139/152/377 Im not going to accept that 4-day prediction its beyond stupid. 162 sorry.
Sun May 13, 2007 4:22 pm

Timayd The 5th B-Sharp Joined: Sun Mar 19, 2006 8:48 am Posts: 1506	Timayd wrote: BJ wrote: Timayd wrote: 139/152/377 Im not going to accept that 4-day prediction its beyond stupid. 162 sorry. and thinking about it that's too low 167!
Sun May 13, 2007 4:24 pm

MARVEL_ROCKS Forum General Joined: Sun Mar 11, 2007 6:11 pm Posts: 8202	$166 million in 4 days domestically.
Sun May 13, 2007 4:39 pm
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The Pirates of the Caribbean:AWE|Prediction|Tracking Thread

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