You have to keep in Spidey was a non-sequel and Pirates was a sequel to a broad-appealing, very leggy film. I think both franchises have stretched it out as far as they can go.

And Pirates is totally going to drop more than 55% it second weekend.

Three pictures doing (around) $400m all opening in the same month? NO WAY!

Well, you'd lose. You can't just look at history without analyzing the circumstances. SM3 won't have a multiplier of 3, opening on a friday and huge competition on its 3rd and 4th weekend will make sure of that.

Indeed.

In terms of grosses:
SM3 < SM1
POTC3 < POTC2
S3 < S2

I said IF Spiderman 3 breaks the opening weekend record mind you. You can't honestly tell me that you can simply ignore history. That's both naive and shortminded. All record breakers have had competition in their 3rd and 4th weekends yet they have all gotten a 3.0 multiplier.

In this case i can. It happening in the past means squat. It's like saying no movie in february ever passed $300m as an argument against Passion of the Christ.

I am speaking from L.A., but the El Capitan theater in Hollywood has sold out its midnight show for AWE. I am attending the POTC marathon on May 24th which is showing all 3 movies of the trilogy and tickets have been selling fast at $100. IMO the anticipation for AWE is not any less than that for DMC.

I wonder how many tickets they've sold for the Disneyland premiere... I hope they sell 'em all.

And, I'm not sure which thread to post this in, so I'll do it here, as any new footage of a movie can make or break people's predictions....

http://www.themoviebox.net/movies/2007/ ... railer.php

Scroll down to the very bottom; the Featurette #2 "Captain Jack Sparrow" is new with some new awesome shots.

Joy

That's a very poor argument. Fact is that is that all record breakers have had a 3.0 multiplier. There is a long line of movies that have opened records all of which had have a 3.0. We had one just last year open up to 135 million and still get a 3.0 multiplier.

You can say that you do not believe SM3 will get a 3.0 but to just discount the long history all together is very naive.

Well this history of record breakers having 3.0 multipliers is not relevant; only starting with Harry Potter does it become relevant. When Jurassic Park 2 broke the record, it was not difficult to have a 3.0 multiplier at all. And since HP, there have been only 3 movies that beat the opening weekend; that' not a very big history.

Pirates 2 had pretty much no competition after it opened, that's why it's multiplier is so big. Spidey 3 is gonna have two $300 million+ films directly after it, that's going to kill its legs. You can't just take history as the rule, you have to take modern context into account.

Naive is thinking just because previous movies did it that this somehow speaks for SM3 also ending with a 3.0 miltiplier if it breaks the OW record. Those movies could have just as easily failed to reach such multipliers but the circumstances turned out favorable enough. As for "long history", movies even a few years old are not really demonstrative as back then legs were better.

I think you're having a lot of trouble seperating causation from correlation. Yes, there is a correlation between breaking the record and having a 3 multiplier, but that by no means that causation is involved. It's pretty ludicrous to think Spidey is going to get a 3 multiplier when taking all factors into account, especially when considering that, as already stated, only three movies have actually broken the record so far this decade. It's like when a while back no movie had ever opened to over 40M and failed to reach 100M, but you would have been a fool to have bet on Scary Movie making it because the two ideas are utterly unrelated.

Don't worry I am taking a Statistics class right now so correlation does not equal causation has been pounded into my head a million times already. I'm just stating that IF SM3 breaks the record history would suggest it will get a 3.0. That is all I am saying.

But history also says that sequels have worse multipliers than predecessors. What was Spider-Man 2's multiplier?

But that's exactly the thing. History doesn't SUGGEST that it will get a 3.0, because that would imply causation. The whole idea of correlation without causation is that the x-variable in no way suggests what the y-variable will be. There is simply too much information that is unknown and could confound the relation to draw any kind of conclusion. The variable defined by being a record-breaker is merely one amongst dozens surrounding the film, and it is much wiser to examine variables that have a statistically proven connection in predicting the final multiplier.

But that's exactly the thing. History doesn't SUGGEST that it will get a 3.0, because that would imply causation. The whole idea of correlation without causation is that the x-variable in no way suggests what the y-variable will be. There is simply too much information that is unknown and could confound the relation to draw any kind of conclusion. The variable defined by being a record-breaker is merely one amongst dozens surrounding the film, and it is much wiser to examine variables that have a statistically proven connection in predicting the final multiplier.

The only way for Spider-Man 3 to pull a 3x is to open to the 140-150 some are predicting, and to not fall flat on it's second weekend. Assuming it got 140-150, a second weekend under 55-60 would mean it's not going to get a 3x multiplier because it's going to see big drops for the rest of it's run due to Shrek and Pirates, then all the June mini-blockbusters (TC stealers). But I dont think it's going to open that big (140-150). 120-130 is my guess, and really, if it opened to 120, that might actually help it's total out more than opening to 150 in the end.

I'd say a $120-125M weekend followed by a 2.9-3.1 multiplier is more likely than a $140-150M weekend followed by a 2.5 multiplier.

Good god. I just had a brain destroying Statistics finals. Seeing that post made me want to scream.

LOL, I know what you mean . . .

BUUUUUT, I'm right

Would that be because it completely tore apart your argument?

110 ow-135-4-day
295 total

This is clearing 375+ Million for sure.