what a surprise.

The closer this comes, the more I think it will be the lowest out of the May films. It just is in the worst possible situation: It's coming off of just decent WOM while SM and Shrek are coming off of great WOM, its the last May film, it's marketing is not as good as either Shrek or Spider-man, and its going to be 2hr 45min(I think many aren't going ot like it cause of its length).

OW: 127m
OW(4-day): 158m

Total: 348m

I think theres a good chance POTC3 will fall under 350m. Disney will regret releasing this on Memorial Day. They should have staked out a July spot much earlier when they had the chance.

The closer this comes, the more I think it will be the lowest out of the May films. It just is in the worst possible situation: It's coming off of just decent WOM while SM and Shrek are coming off of great WOM, its the last May film, it's marketing is not as good as either Shrek or Spider-man, and its going to be 2hr 45min(I think many aren't going ot like it cause of its length).

OW: 127m
OW(4-day): 158m

Total: 348m

I think theres a good chance POTC3 will fall under 350m. Disney will regret releasing this on Memorial Day. They should have staked out a July spot much earlier when they had the chance.

Personally, yes I know more people who liked POTC2 better than Shrek 2 but Shrek 2 had great WOM with families/kids.

And what I don't think is good for POTC3 is that its so close to POTC2. People I feel aren't really ready to be excited about another Pirates compared to SM or Shrek, which were three years ago. It hasn't even been a full year since POTC2 came out. Even with its WOM, I feel if POTC3 was released it a year or two later, people would be more excited to see it. Now, some may bring LOTR as an example but the reasons why those films increased from each other is that the quality of film went up from each one. POTC2 quality was significnalt lower than POTC1, and people noticed that. I know many people who aren't planning on seeing POTC3 in theaters because of their dissapointment with POTC2.

3day-103
4-day-127
total-290

The film is going to be massivley frontloaded. It's the third film in a franchise and its being released on Memorial Day. I don't expect a 4-day multiplier to be higher than 2.25.

And it faces a wide-range of competition, which will hurt it. On its 2nd weekend, it faces Knocked Up/Mr. Brooks, which will take away its older demographs. The problem though is that teens will have rusehd out on OW to see it, and families will rather go see Shrek over Pirates. Plus, many families rush out on OW as well to see it. Plus, even if it didn't face any competition on this weekend, it would still drop like crazy cause its post-Memorial Day. On its third weekend, it faces three movies that combined spread over a wide demographs. Hostel/O13 combined take away teens/adults, and Surfs Up takes away families. The three movies combined will make over 75m+ of direct competition. It faces F42 on fourth weekend, which takes basically all of its demograph.

Plus, I really don't expect WOM to be that good on this one. It may be better than POTC2, but most people want this to be near POTC1 quality, and it doesn't look like that. ITs long run-time also isn't a good sign. It's never good to be over 2hrs and 45m

The runntime I think won't necceasily "scare" people away but could be a sign that people may not like the movie just because its so long. Yes, people are that impatient. Many don't like movies, espically blockbusters, that are over 2hrs and 45min.

And while we all nitpick over POTC3, keep in mind that I think the film will probably do around 350m, and could have a shot at 375m if it actually gets great WOM(though I don't think it will). The film is still going to be uber-huge. Just won't be the biggest out of the big three.

Everything in that statement is false.

Spider-Man 3 is obviously the most hyped, and Shrek nor Pirates will get the level of hypness (hehe) that Spider-Man 3 has recieved. But I don't think it's a bad thing for Shrek or Pirates though. We have seen a hell of a lot of Spider-Man 3 already unfortunatly. Even Venom! They shouldn't have shown him yet >.<. It's quite possible it has gotten too much marketing, and the hype will fall flat after it's opening weekend.

Ok, then I say everything in your statement is false, wow you are good at debate, teach me your ways please!

Meanwhile I think I am going to stikc by polls that state AWE is the most anticipated film. Is using stats a bad way to argue, I just want to ask the greatest debater alive if using polls is a good thing? Or should I make claims without any data to support me? Like you? Because we all know how great you are, you can just claim somthing is flase, and wow sure enough you are right.