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 Alfie - Potential Bomb 
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Hot Fuss

Joined: Sat Oct 16, 2004 10:46 am
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lovemerox wrote:
26/105

Oh yeah


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Mon Oct 25, 2004 5:45 pm
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It has done decently over here, but I think its future in the USA looks rather bad. The reviews are mostly mediocre, the only attraction this movie has to offer is Law and he isn't really a draw...

I say - $6.2m/$15.8m

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Wed Oct 27, 2004 11:30 pm
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It doesn't look good going against The Incredibles and given the track record of Jude Law as a box office draw.


Thu Oct 28, 2004 12:21 am
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from Jeffrey Wells, http://www.hollywood-elsewhere.com :

Quote:
It's no secret that I really like Charles Shyer's Alfie. I don't think it plays well; I know it does. It may not have the jolt or punch that the original Michael Caine version had in `66, but it's a believably acted, exquisitely edited, richly scored character piece. It's not quite Rules of the Game, but it's a long way from a burn.

I especially liked that Alfie has the character and intelligence not to go all mushy at the end and deliver a conventionally happy turnaround ending. This despite the fact that one of Paramount's Alfie trailers seems to suggest that Jude Law's lead character, a hard-core hound who casually hurts women's feelings through the film, hooks up with costar Marisa Tomei at the end and makes like a father to her young son, etc.

The problem is this: I was told earlier this week that Alfie is "not tracking." This means it isn't showing up in moviegoer surveys as something that a good-sized percentage of the audience wants to see. Apparently Law's name isn't enough of a draw on this score. He's seen as more of an "industry star" than a public one.

The standard way to raise awareness and create want-to-see with an upcoming film is to show nationwide "sneaks" the weekend before it opens so people will see it, like it and spread the word. The only reason you don't do this is if distribution execs are concerned that the word of mouth may not be so hot, which could result in the opening weekend tally coming in lower.

Paramount is apparently not planning any Afie sneaks this weekend, so draw your own conclusions. I understand why, and at the same time I don't. This movie sells itself and doesn't screw anyone over. Law gives his most movie-star-ish performance ever. He really leaves that character-actor attitude in the dust.

I think distribution should be like parenting. Your love should always be absolute and bountiful. Especially when it's time for your child to meet the world and fend for himself. You shouldn't raise, bathe, feed, nurture and teach your little boy only to push him out the front door on his very first day of school and say, "Okay, buddy...the bus is down the street....see ya later!" You have to stand by your child, hold his hand, show support and keep showing it.

It's not just that deceptive trailer. The Alfie one-sheet is also a bit lame. By emphasizing only the fact that Jude Law is good looking and not indicating there are all kinds of layers to this film (which there are), they make it look like lightweight fluff.

Alfie isn't that. It's a far better film than what Paramount marketers are trying to suggest, and I just can't imagine average filmgoers seeing this en masse and going "eh."


Thu Oct 28, 2004 1:17 am
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Well, at seems like many reviewers at RT as well as people on IMDB beg to differ with him.

However he got it right with the fact that the movie doesn't have much going for it in order to attract masses.

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Thu Oct 28, 2004 12:00 pm
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This looks like a bomb to me. I predict a mediocre $11.0 million opening but only $25 million overall.

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Thu Oct 28, 2004 1:04 pm
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As the weekend comes closer here is a BUMP for the predictions thread for this movie.

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Mon Nov 01, 2004 6:48 pm
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Well it was a hit here in the Uk, and i liked the movie.

I rekon $10m/$30M


Mon Nov 01, 2004 7:12 pm
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Alfie:

Opening weekend: $14 Million

Total: $44 Million

:D

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Mon Nov 01, 2004 7:59 pm
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12/37


Tue Nov 02, 2004 7:49 am
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BJs Prediction of Wisdom

Opening Wknd: 18m

Domestic total: 75m

BJ is hoping for great legs with a multiplyer a little over a 4.0 8)

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Tue Nov 02, 2004 1:25 pm
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BJ wrote:
BJs Prediction of Wisdom

Opening Wknd: 18m

Domestic total: 75m

BJ is hoping for great legs with a multiplyer a little over a 4.0 8)


Just because it worked with Ray, doesn't mean it will with Alfie. :P :wink:


Tue Nov 02, 2004 4:51 pm
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I, too, smell a bomb here.

Opening: $5.0
Total: $13.7


Tue Nov 02, 2004 6:32 pm
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going low end here...Have had the poster up at my theatre, stuck it next to Shall we dance (same type of viewers) on purpose and listen as people walk in, everyone basically says "what is this ?"...no one has heard of it nor does anyone give a crap...

hello Surviving Xmas...

4.3 million


Tue Nov 02, 2004 10:03 pm
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The marketing is better then I expected, so I'll increase my prediction to 7.2m/18m


Thu Nov 04, 2004 9:58 pm
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