superman returns predictons
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Jonathan
Begging Naked
Joined: Mon Oct 25, 2004 12:07 pm Posts: 14737 Location: The Present (Duh)
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excel wrote: ight, you don trust richard roper in knowing box office? how buot one of the guys who runs boxofficeprophets.com.
BOP just might be the single worst Box Office website out there. They've made many, many inane comments before, like thinking Ice Age 2 would drop only 10% over Easter weekend, not noticing the downward trends Kids movies have on Easter.
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Fri Jun 02, 2006 4:32 pm |
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Joker's Thug #3
Extraordinary
Joined: Sun Oct 24, 2004 2:36 am Posts: 11130 Location: Waiting for the Dark Knight to kick my ass
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SR has plenty of awarness in my book, the problem to me is that nobody really cares about it. Getting closer to realease positive buzz should pick up hopefully some good reviews come in, some nice wom and at the end of it's run ends up being a moderate hit.
_________________ "People always want to tear you down when you're on top, like Napoleon back in the Roman Empire" - Dirk Diggler
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Fri Jun 02, 2006 4:37 pm |
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insomniacdude
I just lost the game
Joined: Wed Oct 13, 2004 7:00 pm Posts: 5868
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excel wrote: maybe you should tell people to stop saying this film has no awareness then.
Wait, was that directed at me? Get your facts straight. I haven't said anything remotely close to insinuating that SR has no awareness. In fact, I'm probably on the higher end of predictions here on the forums (250). I said the trailer was shitty (which it is) and other trailers have gotten better reception at the theater. That's not low awareness at all. What I'm saying is that you are grasping for straws. It's not like Superman is the firts film ever to have advertisements like these. Plenty of other movies have. Some had wild unbelievable success. Some other movies...well, not so much.
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Fri Jun 02, 2006 4:38 pm |
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Excel
Superfreak
Joined: Sat Aug 20, 2005 12:54 am Posts: 22204 Location: Places
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the pics werent directed at you. .
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Fri Jun 02, 2006 4:46 pm |
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insomniacdude
I just lost the game
Joined: Wed Oct 13, 2004 7:00 pm Posts: 5868
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excel wrote: the pics werent directed at you. .
Obviously the pics weren't, but this certainly was, which is what I was commenting on in my last post.
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Fri Jun 02, 2006 4:48 pm |
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neo_wolf
Extraordinary
Joined: Sun Oct 17, 2004 10:19 pm Posts: 11032
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Interesting article(bkb will love this).
http://www.latimes.com/entertainment/ne ... 1483.story
Do you think it can hurt the B.O?
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Fri Jun 02, 2006 5:15 pm |
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El Maskado
Arrrrrrrrrrgggghhhhhhhhhh!
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 8:17 pm Posts: 21572
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Oddly enough I made that Superman joke 6 months ago to jb007 about it being the next movie most of the gay population would flock to after BBM
Last edited by El Maskado on Fri Jun 02, 2006 5:18 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Fri Jun 02, 2006 5:18 pm |
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Joker's Thug #3
Extraordinary
Joined: Sun Oct 24, 2004 2:36 am Posts: 11130 Location: Waiting for the Dark Knight to kick my ass
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Superman is kinda like Tom Cruise. You might think because of how much in love he looks to be with a woman and now that he has a kid that theres no possible way he can be gay, but deep down inside he's craving for man ass.
_________________ "People always want to tear you down when you're on top, like Napoleon back in the Roman Empire" - Dirk Diggler
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Fri Jun 02, 2006 5:18 pm |
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neo_wolf
Extraordinary
Joined: Sun Oct 17, 2004 10:19 pm Posts: 11032
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Killuminati510 wrote: Superman is kinda like Tom Cruise. You might think because of how much in love he looks to be with a woman and now that he has a kid that theres no possible way he can be gay, but deep down inside he's craving for man ass.
lol!
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Fri Jun 02, 2006 5:20 pm |
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DP07
The Thirteenth Floor
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 2:26 am Posts: 15565 Location: Everywhere
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Magnus101 wrote: Bret Ratner is the best wrote: Difference is BJ doesnt shove his predictions down everyones throat and overpredicting is his gimmick You still havent gotten a response back from what I said three movie columnist think that SR will flop or disappoint when you were quoting on how Roeper thinks that Superman will be number 1 Except BJ optimism has spread, and many are predicting 450m+ for POTC2. I think POTC2 will be big, but I doubt it can get in the 450m range or near it. Yet no one protests to BJ or anyone predicting 450m+ for POTC2 even when they have no evidence to support them aside from Shrek 2.
Oh man I have a lot of evidence.
I'll make that thread soon. 
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Fri Jun 02, 2006 5:52 pm |
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zingy
College Boy Z
Joined: Mon Oct 11, 2004 8:40 pm Posts: 36662
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excel, no offense, but I have more confidence in Roeper than BOP. That site is filled with some of the most idiotic predictors I've ever seen, and I'd hardly take them seriously either.
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Fri Jun 02, 2006 6:14 pm |
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Shack
Devil's Advocate
Joined: Sun Jul 31, 2005 2:30 am Posts: 40560
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I don't really see how Superman's fanbase can rush out to 41-49 mil in the first two days, when Batman only got 24. That's, like, double. It'll probably do a little better, but twice as much?
Whatever you want to believe. 
_________________Shack’s top 50 tv shows - viewtopic.php?f=8&t=90227
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Fri Jun 02, 2006 6:44 pm |
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Excel
Superfreak
Joined: Sat Aug 20, 2005 12:54 am Posts: 22204 Location: Places
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shack im sure people besides the die hards will go see it opening weeekend. that n nobody knew batman came out on a wednesday, let alone had midtnights n 10 pms, which will play a large in supermans opening as theyve already been highly publicized.
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Fri Jun 02, 2006 6:49 pm |
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Shack
Devil's Advocate
Joined: Sun Jul 31, 2005 2:30 am Posts: 40560
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I don't think I need a reply to that statement, that pretty much speaks for itself.

_________________Shack’s top 50 tv shows - viewtopic.php?f=8&t=90227
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Fri Jun 02, 2006 6:56 pm |
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Eventine
Too Brilliant for Introductions
Joined: Sat Nov 05, 2005 12:45 am Posts: 3073
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Huh, excel? People have yet to find out SR opens on June 28th. TV spots had it at June 30th.
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Fri Jun 02, 2006 7:02 pm |
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El Maskado
Arrrrrrrrrrgggghhhhhhhhhh!
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 8:17 pm Posts: 21572
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Eventine wrote: Huh, excel? People have yet to find out SR opens on June 28th. TV spots had it at June 30th.
Maybe WB will hire the painter to paint over the 30 with a "28" on the large billboard hanging up near the freeway, maybe theater owners will cross out the 30 on the SR posters at their lobby and replace it with "28"
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Fri Jun 02, 2006 7:06 pm |
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zingy
College Boy Z
Joined: Mon Oct 11, 2004 8:40 pm Posts: 36662
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Today's News: Fighting continues in Iraq, more American soldiers are dead, and Superman Returns has been moved to Wednesday, June 28th, 2006.
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Fri Jun 02, 2006 7:10 pm |
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Eventine
Too Brilliant for Introductions
Joined: Sat Nov 05, 2005 12:45 am Posts: 3073
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I don't doubt they'll do that, but that won't be enough to have SR collect $40 million+ on its first 2 days. It'll have a bigger Friday than Wednesday for sure.
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Fri Jun 02, 2006 7:11 pm |
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Excel
Superfreak
Joined: Sat Aug 20, 2005 12:54 am Posts: 22204 Location: Places
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dude ive seen several reports saying "make that the 27th" for superman talking bout it openign at 10pm on tuesday the 27th.
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Fri Jun 02, 2006 7:21 pm |
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insomniacdude
I just lost the game
Joined: Wed Oct 13, 2004 7:00 pm Posts: 5868
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Magnus101 wrote: Excel, Zing is right. BOP has zero credibitily. It is by far one of the worst BO sites on the net. They get lucky every now and then, but that's about it. They are usually WAY off.
The biggest area of conflict for SR is whether people think people are intrested or not. I think the fanboys and a good portion of the general population is intrested in it. I think the porblem is that the genearal population is not liek DYING to see it. Its a film that is like, "yeah, looks intresting and cool." POTC2 right now is the film the general population is dying to see.
I felt the same way about WOTW last year, and like last year, I think SR will benefit majorly from the holiday boost. The holidays is great because it gives an extra incentive for the "intrested" to go see it. A lot of times, you have films that people are intrested in, but they don't have that one extra reason to see it(which I think happend with MI3). Holidays to me provide that as seen with the films benefiting from holiday boosts in history.
The fanbase will rush out on the first two days, giving SR a total around 41m-49m. Then, the holiday boost starts to work in come June 30th, and the general population push its total pass 100m, and I think it'll have a total past 150m right before POTC2 opens.
Oh, and someone argued that July 4th holiday won't help it. Let's just look at The Patriot, which opened the same date as SR on July 4th. Its first sunday drop was 18%, and then its monday drop was 2%. And it dropped 14.5% on July 4th. Now, obviously SR will be more frontloaded so it won't have drops like that, but it still will have great drops on days where blockbusters like SR usually experinece bigger drops. To say that July 4th will help it minimal is just ridiclous I think.
I agree with everything 98%. I think Shack is right, that the fanbase alone will churn out closer to $40 million than $50 million. Otherwise, good analysis.
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Fri Jun 02, 2006 7:30 pm |
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insomniacdude
I just lost the game
Joined: Wed Oct 13, 2004 7:00 pm Posts: 5868
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excel wrote: dude ive seen several reports saying "make that the 27th" for superman talking bout it openign at 10pm on tuesday the 27th. I think Roid refuted that best: Bret Ratner is the best wrote: Maybe WB will hire the painter to paint over the 30 with a "28" on the large billboard hanging up near the freeway, maybe theater owners will cross out the 30 on the SR posters at their lobby and replace it with "28"
C'mon excel, first you said all of the ads were creating tons of awareness and are very effective, but than you turn around and say that all of the awareness it's created so far will be easily shifted aside in the next three and a half weeks? Are you seriously that blind? As Roid pointed out, there are already many things with the date attached to it, and that can't so easily be remedied as all of the"reports" you've been seeing, especially since it's only been anounced for, what, two days now?
The same move happened to Shrek 2. The moved from Friday to Wednesday about three weeks before release. Now, Superman and Shrek are different monsters to be sure. The latter has the fanboy factor, plus schools are out. But Shrek 2's Wed/Thurs gross was, like, 15% of it's five day total. Factor in the loss of school and the fanboys (and midnight showings), plus a lower three day (SR won't make $110 million, we both can agree on that). And I can see $9 million on midnights as part of a $25 million opening Wednesday, and a pretty hefty drop to $14 million on Thursday. With a three day take of $75 million, that mean the W/T is about 33% of the five day weekend. War of the Worlds had 35%, Spiderman 2 had 42%, T3 had 39%, and MIB2 had 40%. Notice how all of those were July 4 Wednesday openers and, with the exception of WOTW and, to a degree, MIB2, fanboy films. I think those numbers are pretty solid, especially considering they just anounced the move to Wednesday.
EDIT: BTW, if anyone wants to double chek those numbers, please. I did all of them with some rough math off the top of ym head. I think they're fairly accurate, but I'm not positive.
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Last edited by insomniacdude on Fri Jun 02, 2006 8:03 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Fri Jun 02, 2006 7:48 pm |
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El Maskado
Arrrrrrrrrrgggghhhhhhhhhh!
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 8:17 pm Posts: 21572
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Hehe Sommie. I think Krem making everyone having the same avatar caused you to respond to the wrong poster like what Kilumanti did by impersonating BKB
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Fri Jun 02, 2006 7:51 pm |
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insomniacdude
I just lost the game
Joined: Wed Oct 13, 2004 7:00 pm Posts: 5868
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Bret Ratner is the best wrote: Hehe Sommie. I think Krem making everyone having the same avatar caused you to respond to the wrong poster like what Kilumanti did by impersonating BKB
Na, I just didn't clarify in ym psot. Fixed.
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Fri Jun 02, 2006 8:04 pm |
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Rev
Romosexual!
Joined: Tue Oct 19, 2004 3:06 am Posts: 32621 Location: the last free city
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_________________ Is it 2028 yet?
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Fri Jun 02, 2006 10:06 pm |
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STEVE ROGERS
The Greatest Avenger EVER
Joined: Fri Oct 29, 2004 4:02 am Posts: 18501
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Magnus101 wrote: Batman has the biggest internet fanboys by far, mainly because Batman Begins is the best comic-book film of all time and it created that huge internet fanbase. If Spider-man was on that list, Batman would still beat him.
Too bad the box office for BATMAN is fodder compared to SPIDERMAN which is clearly proven to be the more popular comic property, hence the repeat viewing factor it garnered to propel it to where it's at.. BATMAN BEGINS stalled out at what?? 214 Million?? I think SPIDERMAN achieved that number in it's first 5 days didn't it??
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Sat Jun 03, 2006 2:22 am |
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