Nah thats just the mind control by the fake northern lights telling you to think that. Wake up sheeple!

Harris follows an insane rally in PA with an excellent interview with. Charlamagne. Trump embarrasses himself at the town hall and then craters with the Chicago Economists club.

Polling trends for Harris had exploded post debate and have now come back to Earth, but we'll see what happens.

There is some insider talk that polls might behave like they did in 2022 in which case Harris might win in a landslide. I tend to think Trump has a slight edge right now because the low info voter tends to heavily favor Trump these days and they only show up for the big national presidential elections

It is impossible to know, but one thing that 100% clear is Trump's voters are very active in polls. There is not much of a hidden MAGA vote in 2024. It is extremely out in the open.

There can’t be that many people who like Trump but not Lake, I’d say her finishing 2-3 points behind him is more likely.

Today was the first day of early voting here in Georgia.
Took me about 10-15 minutes from the time I parked my car and came back. Everyone should vote early.

I think there is enough early vote data that a Harris landslide won’t happen. It looks like she’s going to win Virginia by less than Biden which presumably wouldn’t happen in landslide.

My current gut prediction is that Democrats and the media are highlighting right polls so as to scare voters away from third party or an apathy non-vote so as not to repeat 2016. I am starting to think Harris win this after last week thinking Trump would win. Still a very close race

Trump just has to do 1.5% better nationally to win than in 2020. It will be close.

Pretty good position for Trump to be in.

If it wasn’t for 2022 he’d be a shoe in.

Really depends how they compensated for the over polling of Republican voters since then.

The polls are always so damn off how could anyone trust them?

The undecideds and "both sides" crowds ought to be reminded that last time they sat out an election it directly resulted in the loss of Roe v Wade (and made America look like a circus run by backwoods hicks on a daily basis.)

Z, didn't you say the reason you voted Trump last time was because you thought Biden was more likely to put us in lockdown again? But he didn't. Trump was the only one who ever put us in lockdown. And handed out trillions of free money to people. Sounds like a socialist to me.

Donald Trump mispronouncing Arizonans (he called them azure asians) and repeating crazy things he reads on facebook make me wonder if DP07 is more fit to hold office than him. At least the whole "I've transitioned into an alien" thing is original.

So yeah, he's probably gonna win. Starting in three months, our struggling economy will suddenly become the greatest economy of all time and all the Trumpers will be explaining how inflation is actually a good thing. Can't wait!

I agree with him, despite the crazy events on paper this is probably my least favorite election cycle of the ones I have strong memory of (08 to now), whether it's because it's Trump's third/a decade of woke vs MAGA, or the international wars taking away some people's focus.

With that said it may be for the best and the more the juice is taken out of American politics, the healthier things get, it took over a lot of things this decade and maybe it's for the best if it took a back seat to stuff like arts in the next generation.

An assassination attempt of a president of the United States happened in the last three months but going by the media it feels like it either never happened or happened decades ago. Surely not what Trump would want.

They buried it within a few weeks mainly cause the media is more like 80/20 left leaning/pro Democrats and they knew it would help Trump to talk about it too much or try a little bit harder to break the mystery box that is the shooter.

Sounds like the early vote has left Democrats in a poor pre-sales/needs strong walk ups position.

Trump is doing it again. I'm not sure what it is, whether it is winning or just making it a contest but he's bloody well doing it. I wonder how much Musk's incentives will help him in the key swing states. Probably not a lot, but who knows. I reckon it's because no matter how forward-leaning and progressive the US claims to be, will they ever truly appoint a woman as president? I hope they can. But if it turns out again that a poor candidate (Trump, both times) has beaten the female Democrat presidential candidate then I think it's clear. Even the fact that it's a close race makes me already think that.

It's like a contest between a turd and a woman, and it's going to be a photo finish. lol

I know you tend to surround yourself in news that tells you what you want to hear, because I have heard this is a good sign for Democrats

I liked this description starting at around 3:00. She says Trump is a great salesman and he "understands what someone's weak spot is" when negotiating with a potential client. Before 2016 the Republicans were doing a poor job listening to real conservatives on issues like trade and immigration so Trump was able to sell himself to them on that. 2020 was supposed to be the "we've been successful for 4 years let's renew the deal" moment but covid messed it up.

What I’ve read is that early voting is significantly down from 2020, and the early voting that there is is a bit closed between party affiliations.

Not really Enough info to glean anything from.

I trust the number nerds I follow

The McTrump thing is a perfec encapsulation of his whole political run. Does this completely fake stunt to show hes a man of the people, his audience will see it and immediately have it reenforce their unshakable beliefs, then when its pointed out the stunt they'll dismiss it "no no no, the media is just being unfair."

Yet it works because he's aiming for the low hanging fruit and there's always more out there to pick. Kamala is out here wasting time trying to show people how she'll make their lives better. Loser attitude.

Early vote trends will be tough to read given more R's have embraced it vs. 2020 but more R's are voting D than vice versa.

According to wiki

2016 - 9% of Democrats vote Republican, 7% of Republicans vote Democrat
2020 - 6% of Democrats vote Republican, 6% of Republican vote Democrat

Don't see a reason to predict Harris will get more this time unless you already think she's going to win.

Harris is banking on the "Republicans are more into early vote/Democrats are more into election day vote because they're less scared of covid" factor changing the race leading her to compete with Trump in election day votes. If I understand the numbers correctly there is no current lead for registered Democrats votes over registered Republicans in Arizona, North Carolina or Nevada, 1/3 of the votes are independent which Biden won by a lot in 2020 but Trump won in 2016. So it's possible she needs to straight up win election day in those states or close to it, despite how in 2020 and 2022 the trend was the Democrats built up a cushion of early votes and then held on as the Republicans cut into it with election day. But one issue with the "Republicans get more into early vote" theory is the early in person vote is where they're doing the damage, not the early mail in vote. So Harris needs the Republicans to have just got into voting early in person this year not just got into mail in voting. Or, she needs Trump for some reason to just be a lot stronger in the southern states than rust belt this year, as I think the latter don't have as much early vote info so far.