This thread will be to test the theory that in the new era there will be more moderate hits like Anyone But You and the Beekeeper to make up for less blockbusters
50-99 million movies
January 2023: 2 (A Man Called Otto, M3gan) January 2024: 2 (Mean Girls, The Beekeeper)
100-149 million: 0 for January in 2023/2024
February 2023 had Cocaine Bear and Jesus Revolution do 50-99 and March 2023 had 1 100-149 (Scream IV) and 2 50-99s (Shazam, Dungeons and Dragons) however the months after that were pretty barren for mid level hits so it's possible 2024 will separate itself then.
2023 A Man Called Otto M3gan Cocaine Bear Jesus Revolution
2024 Mean Girls The Beekeeper Bob Marley: One Love (projected)
Argylle and Madame Web miss, both good opportunities like how 2023 missed on Knock at the Cabin and 80 for Brady
So far my theory looks a bit meh but the schedule punted on half the weeks this year.
March 2023:
50-99: Shazam, Dungeons and Dragons 100-150: Scream IV
65 was biggest missed opportunity and Creed III made too much.
2024 candidates: Imaginary, Kung Fu Panda 4, sleeper: Arthur the King. Neeson has another dark past dad movie (In the Land of Saints and Sinners), I guess after Beekeeper never say never? 100-150 candidates: Godzilla x Kong, Ghostbusters, (KFP4)
CW is getting absolute raves out of SXSW. One review I saw called it a masterpiece. I realize it seems at these fests everything does so hard to see what translates box office wise but it seems like it has the potential to be a zeitgeist type film. On RT, currently at 7/8 positive reviews.
Seems like it will be very divisive but it seems it will have enough attention on it that it could reach at least mid level. If it really dominates the conversation it's got the room since April is light overall. POTC rode controversy to big box office very quickly so definitely not at that scale but will be interesting to see how it does.
2023 A Man Called Otto M3gan Cocaine Bear Jesus Revolution
2024 Mean Girls The Beekeeper Bob Marley: One Love (projected)
Argylle and Madame Web miss, both good opportunities like how 2023 missed on Knock at the Cabin and 80 for Brady
So far my theory looks a bit meh but the schedule punted on half the weeks this year.
March 2023:
50-99: Shazam, Dungeons and Dragons 100-150: Scream IV
65 was biggest missed opportunity and Creed III made too much.
2024 candidates: Imaginary, Kung Fu Panda 4, sleeper: Arthur the King. Neeson has another dark past dad movie (In the Land of Saints and Sinners), I guess after Beekeeper never say never? 100-150 candidates: Godzilla x Kong, Ghostbusters, (KFP4)
Looks like.2023 may grow its 50-99s lead with Panda being too big to count, Imaginary and Arthur too small, although Ghostbusters seems like it could match Shazam as a movie that only made 50-99 range cause it flopped. I guess the mid level hits of December was not a permanent trend quite yet and possibly relied on holiday season, kind of like how country music dominated billboard in the middle of last year but then receded somewhat. On the other hand if Ghostbusters does poorly, it continues to show the 2010s-y franchise reboot model is tired, which is part of what opened the door for a mid level films comeback in late 2023.
Fly Me To The Moon looks like it has serious potential to be in the higher tier of mid level hit. Maybe $150M. Starpower, space, great release date mid July, broad appeal across demos, and could be a big comedy hit.
Mon Apr 08, 2024 11:15 am
Shack
Devil's Advocate
Joined: Sun Jul 31, 2005 2:30 am Posts: 38240
Re: Mid Level hits tracker 2024 vs 2023
stuffp originally suggested it for our draft replacement before I talked him into the Wild Robot. Not sure I hate the decision so far as it looks a little caught between genres and might need to be Best Picture nominee quality to do something. I think Berlanti possibly should've gone TV series.
It was super brilliant of them to launch the trailer today. I saw the trailer all across eclipse TV coverage so a lot of eyeballs saw it and made complete sense with the space theme. Equivalent to a superbowl ad probably pushing it out today. Joker will dominate tomorrow though.
Mon Apr 08, 2024 4:21 pm
MadGez
Dont Mess with the Gez
Joined: Sun Oct 24, 2004 9:54 am Posts: 22733 Location: Melbourne Australia
Re: Mid Level hits tracker 2024 vs 2023
hmm Fly me to the Moon would have been a decent pick. Better than Wolfs and Red One Algren/Rev? Not sure.
Fly Me To The Moon looks like it has serious potential to be in the higher tier of mid level hit. Maybe $150M. Starpower, space, great release date mid July, broad appeal across demos, and could be a big comedy hit. ]
Yeah, i liked the premise, but no way I see 150m based on the trailer...ScarJo and Tatum aren't stars that can get a big gross by themselves, it doesn't look that funny, and I'm not sure how the 60s space angle has appeal. The release date is great though, but I expect something closer to a 50m gross for it.
Tue Apr 09, 2024 12:32 pm
Shack
Devil's Advocate
Joined: Sun Jul 31, 2005 2:30 am Posts: 38240
Re: Mid Level hits tracker 2024 vs 2023
Well after a slow start for mid level films they are making a comeback lately with Civil War, Challengers and Fall Guy looking like they will all be in the 50-99 range
After April
50-99
2023 (8): A Man Called Otto, M3gan, Cocaine Bear, Jesus Revolution, Shazam 2, Dungeons and Dragons, Air, Evil Dead rise 2024 (5 - 1 projected): Mean Girls, The Beekeeper, Bob Marley, Civil War, Challengers
100-149
2023 (1): Scream IV 2024 (1): Ghostbusters Afterlife
150-199:
2023 (2): Creed III, John Wick: Chapter IV 2024 (1 projected): Kung Fu Panda 4
May 2023 had no 51-99s, 1 100-149 (Fast X) and no 151-199.
May was a MID-xplosion with 3 50-99 grossers in The Fall Guy, Furiosa and Garfield compared to 0 in 2023, 1 predicted 100-149 in IF and 1 159-199 in Planet of the Apes, therefore closing the gap on 2023 after trailing all year.
50-99
2023 (8): A Man Called Otto, M3gan, Cocaine Bear, Jesus Revolution, Shazam 2, Dungeons and Dragons, Air, Evil Dead Rise 2024 (projected 8): Mean Girls, The Beekeeper, Bob Marley, Civil War, Challengers, The Fall Guy, Furiosa, Garfield
100-149
2023 (2): Scream IV, Fast X 2024 (projected 2): Ghostbusters Afterlife, IF
150-199:
2023 (2): Creed III, John Wick: Chapter IV 2024 (projected 2): Kung Fu Panda 4, Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes
June 2023 had 1 50-99 (No Hard Feelings), 1 100-149 (The Flash) and 2 150-199 (Transformers and Elemental)
_________________ I believe in God as I believe that the sun has risen: not only because I see it, but because by it I see everything else.
I was blind, but now I see.
Mon Jun 03, 2024 10:09 pm
O
Extraordinary
Joined: Sun Jul 10, 2005 1:53 pm Posts: 11608
Re: Mid Level hits tracker 2024 vs 2023
After Venom 3 makes $$$ they should just bring Hardy back (doubt Theron would ever come back unless she had no scenes with Hardy) and they might still have a chance to steer the Mad Max series forward. Maybe there's still a chance, save the franchise Tom!
Tue Jun 04, 2024 1:49 am
MadGez
Dont Mess with the Gez
Joined: Sun Oct 24, 2004 9:54 am Posts: 22733 Location: Melbourne Australia
Re: Mid Level hits tracker 2024 vs 2023
They should have made the Wasteland sequel before Furiosa. Looks like they will never make it now.
Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 41 guests
You cannot post new topics in this forum You cannot reply to topics in this forum You cannot edit your posts in this forum You cannot delete your posts in this forum You cannot post attachments in this forum