I really think Ice Age is being overpredicted. The first two had the benefit of being released against no competition that this film doesn't... and I think the Scrat gimmick, cute as it is, won't pay off as well this time around (it was the entire focus of the campaigns for IA2 and IA3). I really think it might only do 45-50m for the 3-day, and not because I want TF2 to win the weekend (I really don't), but because IA3 has a lot going against it that the others didn't. Wednesday release, huge holdovers, summer films generally doing less on weekends and more on weekdays... I don't see how some of you are expecting this to have a 3-day that nearly matches IA2's. And again, with MVA and Up, it's not like audiences are dying for an animated flick.

A crime drama as competition? You're on crack.

yeah except i was referring to TF2's 50m second weekend. nice try, though.

Now an action film as competition against a family flick. You simply do not have an idea how counter-programming works.

do you not realize that kids are one of the main demographics of the TF franchise? And that Ice Age appeals mostly to families, followed by teens, which are both a major part of TF's audience? Yes, TF2 isn't a families-only animated film, but that doesn't mean they don't eat into each other's box office.

Counter-programming is having two movies with very different appeal, like Wanted and Wall-E, open against each other. This is not counter-programming... this is Fox hoping that Ice Age manages to claw its way above TF2 during a busy weekend.

I mean, if you actually think that a 50m weekend from TF2 is going to help IA3, I really don't know what to say.

I'm not saying it will help, but you just overestimate the way two unrelated films affect each other in July, which is the ultimate movie-going month of the year! We've seen many films of similar demograph do well in the summer. I need not to mention July 2007. Heck, we just witnessed two family flicks released extremely close to each other and both doing well.

That probably will mean very healthy profits for Paramount, which spent just under $200 million to produce the sequel and is investing $150 million to $175 million to market and distribute the film globally. The studio paid $155 million to produce the original "Transformers."

Aside from Bay, no other talent is participating in the movie's profit pool. The film's star, Shia LaBeouf, earned a flat fee of around $5 million. He received about $500,000 on the first movie.

http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/enterta ... l-bay.html

Hmmm, I expected a bigger budget...

Me too. I remember Megan Fox saying last year that T2 had a 300 million budget.

Megan Fox is also an idiot. Refer to every quote she has ever given....

Will be close. All things considered, Transformers 2 will likely be in a $50-55 million range next weekend. I think Ice Age 3 will be able to beat that during the 3-day weekend, though.

Look like Transformers 2 will win the weekend.

And it's still close

That's what I call a "Chip Sandwich"

That was when I was an Avatar hater. But other than that and the blatant WB lying, I was right.

Interestingly, Avatar taking No.1 for 2009 also ensures that no decade has been topped by a sequel now that The Dark Knight has been beaten.

It looks like this record will go to Potter.

what

perhaps, ya neva know

Oh, I think Potter has the year pretty locked up. Twilight's not in 3D, and nothing else is likely to go much past 250m.

Muppets - $400M

Believe and it will happen.

Yeah, It's Potter's feat. Made even more "remarkable" by the fact that its opening weekend was the all-time record.

Yeah no way anything passes Potter from here.

Even though I did say Avatar had no chance on the first page of this thread

Tintin will outgross Avatar.

I don't see any major surprise from here on this year, but you never know. I think Potter will do it.