My Full Weekend Analysis and Total Gross ProjectionsComing off the anemic post-Labor Day weekend the box-office recovered very well this week with four new releases hitting over 10,000 screens combined. While not all of the new releases posted good numbers they helped for Top 12 to go up
30.6% to $84.8 million. The business was still down
2.9% from the same weekend in 2010 when all four new releases (The Town, Easy A, Devil and Alpha and Omega) got out of the gate pretty well with The Town topping the charts.
In what turned out to be one of the bigger box-office surprises this year, Disney’s 3D re-release of their successful classic
The Lion King topped the box-office despite being the new release with the smallest theatre count. The animated feature took in a whopping $29.3 million from 2,330 theatres for a terrific per-theatre-average of $12,575. This opening is truly remarkable in various respects. It is the 2nd-biggest opening weekend ever for a movie’s reissue with the top spot still being held by Star Wars: Special Edition which made $35.9 million in its opening back in January 1997. No movie since then could come even close to that number – until The Lion King. Back in 2009, in anticipation of Toy Story 3 Disney has re-released Toy Story and Toy Story 2 in 3D as a double feature. The combo opened to $12.5 million from 600 theatres less and went on to gross $30.7 million. That re-release was of course hindered by its long combined running time allowing for fewer showtimes. The last major tradition non-CGI animated re-release was The Little Mermaid back in 1997, but that also went to open to $9.8 million and finished with $27.2 million. Except Star Wars nothing has set the precedent for such a gigantic opening. It definitely helps that The Lion King is an all-time classic and immensely beloved by children and adults alike. However, just being a beloved classic apparently doesn’t cut it. When E. T. was re-released as a 20th Anniversary Special Edition back in 2002, it opened to just over $14 million despite having been given a big marketing push and over 3,000 theatres. Another remarkable aspect of this opening is that it became the largest opening weekend for a movie since Rise of the Planet of the Apes at the beginning of August and the first movie to top the box-office while playing in less than 2,500 theatres since I Can Do Bad All By Myself in September 2009. The cumulated gross for The Lion King (including its original run in 1994) stands at $357.8 million. After this weekend it has jumped five spots on the all-time domestic chart, now at #17 just ahead of Jurassic Park. It looks very likely that it will eventually become
the 12th $400+ million grosser and re-enter the all-time Top 10.
So why did The Lion King surpass even the most outrageous predictions and opened to such terrific numbers? And where is it heading from now on? To answer the first question: there are two main reasons why The Lion King broke out. First would be that, as I said above, it’s an all-around beloved classic. Let’s not forget that until Finding Nemo came along in 2003, it has held the title as the highest-grossing animated film of all-time for nine years and nothing else even came close. The film is a major classic and two DTV sequels kept the franchise going on home video. Also, in the times of VHS is became the most-sold movie ever with sales numbers that no movie on DVD could ever top to date (over 30 million tapes have been sold, 4.5 million of those on the first day of release alone). Furthermore, Julie Taymor’s The Lion King musical became a huge success on Broadway and worldwide. However, as I have mentioned above, E.T.’s re-release has shown that popularity of the film alone doesn’t guarantee a hugely successful re-release. A more important reason, in my opinion, is the utter lack of family-oriented competition. The marketplace hasn’t seen a single family-oriented release since Spy Kids: All the Time in the World which opened four weeks ago and bombed, looking to finish under $40 million. The only other family release in August was The Smurfs which is now in its 8th week. No family-oriented movie has made more than $1.6 million this weekend. In other words:
The Lion King was the perfect re-release under the perfect circumstances and the 3D boost certainly helped the grosses as well.
As far as the future prospects go, I don’t see the terrific legs that are usually reserved for well-received family-oriented movies released in September. If you look at major re-releases only very few of them ended up with good or even solid legs. Last year, the Toy Story combo didn’t even manage a multiplier of over 2.5. The Little Mermaid’s reissue in 1997 got a multiplier of just around 2.77 which is pretty bad for 1997 when frontloading wasn’t much of an issue. E.T.’s re-release in 2002 ended up having a multiplier of just around 2.48 while the reissue of Grease in 1998 barely managed a multiplier above 2.2. The only major exception is The Exorcist: Director’s Cut which got an opening-to-total multiplier of almost 5. I see The Lion King going more the way of the others, though. It should do a bit better than E.T. and Toy Story/Toy Story 2 as its large PTA should see it having theatres added next week. Moreover, there’s no animated competition until November and no big upcoming family films except for Dolphin Tale next weekend. However, I definitely see some sort of frontloading here considering its Saturday increase wasn’t nearly as huge as some expected. Other animated September hits like Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs and Open Season increased over 60% ion their first Saturday whereas The Lion King went up just around 35%. Taking all that into consideration, I expect the film to end up with
$75-85 million which is great for a re-release in our day and age.
Showcasing good word-of-mouth among its target audiences (despite the CinemaScore of B-),
Contagion lost only
34.8% of its audiences sliding down to the 2nd spot of the box-office with a $14.5 million weekend take. That put its 10-days total at $44.2 million. As far as adult-oriented September thrillers go, Contagion’s drop is almost identical to The Town’s 34.5% decrease last year. It’s a remarkable hold considering this weekend has seen four new releases and speaks for a good future at the box-office for this film. I am sure that strong media coverage over the week has helped the film, but also the fact that it looks like the main film to see for adult audiences. The film’s high-pedigree with its all-star cast and an Oscar-winning director make the film seem appealing to a wide range of audiences. Also, unlike The Town, it is rated PG-13, making itself accessible. On top of that playing in IMAX theatres will help its holds in the long run as well as there are no other movies opening on IMAX screens until Real Steel on October 7th. With Moneyball being a big adult-oriented release next weekend, Contagion might be hurt a bit, but it will still remain the only thriller with this kind of appeal in theatres for a while. I expect it to finish its run with a formidable
$80-85 million.
The widest new opener of the weekend, the Cannes Best Director winner
Drive, made $11 million from 2,886 venues for a PTA of $3,818. That was enough for the third spot this weekend. FilmDistrict’s third release (after the hugely successful Insidious and the rather disappointing Don’t Be Afraid of the Dark) scored a terrible C- grade at the CinemaScore poll which indicates bad things to come for its legs. The movie, mostly marketed as a high-tension action flick is probably to artsy for mainstream moviegoers. Either way, its opening is really solid, considering the film’s $15 million budget and even though legs will likely be very lacking (especially with direct competition from Killer Elite and Abduction coming up) it should turn in nice profit for FilmDistrict. It should end up with
$28-30 million in the bank, making it the second success for Ryan Gosling this year (after Crazy, Stupid, Love).
Dropping two spots to #4, the long-burning hit
The Help dipped just
27.9% (the second-best hold in the Top 12) for a $6.4 million weekend and a $147.4 million running total. The legs this $26 million opener has displayed so far are simply amazing and there is still a lot more to come. The Southern-set drama passed X-Men: First Class and Rio this weekend to become the 12th-biggest 2011 release with the Top 10 in visible reach. What’s really impressive is that the film has once again added theatres (in its 6th weekend, no less!) to finally top a theatre count of 3,000 (3,014 theatres in total). Right now the film is still on course towards a
$170-175 million, though the exact final total is difficult to pinpoint as it’ll depend on how long it will stay in theatres for during the awards season which should give it another boost.
The remake of the classic Peckinpah thriller,
Straw Dogs, opened not just to lukewarm reviews, but also to terrible box-office numbers. The James Marsden-starrer occupied the fifth spot of the box-office this weekend and made $5 million from 2,408 locations for an average of $2,076. The general frontloadness of films like this and the terrible CinemaScore of C- suggest that the film will disappear from theatres pretty fast, collecting no more than
$13 million in the process.
While Straw Dogs’ opening certainly was terrible, the title of the weekend’s most pitiful performer was taken by
I Don’t Know How She Does It. The #6 of this weekend made $4.5 million over the three-day frame for an average of $1,818 from 2,476 theatres. I Don’t Know How She Does It is yet another box-office flop for Sarah Jessica Parker outside of the Sex and the City franchise. Did You Hear About the Morgans opened to $6.6 million from 2,718 in December 2009, while Smart People made just $9.5 million in 2008. One would have to go back to 2006 to find another hit for Parker (Failure to Launch). While the film’s CinemaScore is solid (B) and there isn’t much competition coming up, I still expect mediocre legs at best since it will not be able to hold on to its theatres for long. I see it leaving the theatres with
$12 million in its pockets. It is certainly one of the worst box-office performances of the year so far.
With its adult audiences taken by Straw Dogs and Drive,
The Debt still managed a decent hold as it made $2.9 million (down
38.3%) over the weekend and slipped to the 7th slot of the box-office. Its current total is at a solid $26.5 million. While the film has displayed decent legs so far, I expect it to be affected by upcoming competition like Killer Elite, Moneyball and The Ides of March. It’ll wind up with
$33 million when all is said and done.
Down to #8, the well-reviewed
Warrior unfortunately doesn’t get a chance to display good legs despite it’s CinemaScore of an A. The film took in $2.8 million for a running total of $9.9 million as it decreased
47.2%. It should start losing theatres at a rapid pace and will never get a chance to develop decent legs. Warrior will find its way to
$15 million and will hopefully find wider audience in the home video market.
Faring much better,
Rise of the Planet of the Apes continues to impress as it dips
32.5% for a $2.6 million weekend and a $171.6 million cume. The film has already surpassed all expectations and became a sizable profit for Fox with its impressive $93 million budget. The action blockbuster will end up with
$178 million in the bank.
Colombiana is another film that looks to end up with much better legs than expected. Rounding off the Top 10, the Luc Besson-produced action flick added $2.3 million to its total (down
41.7%) bringing its gross to $33.3 million after four weeks. The film proves that Zoe Saladana has some drawing power in the right role. With Killer Elite and Abduction aiming for action-interested audiences next weekend, it should be demolished then, though. Still, ending up with a
$37 million total is impressive for an action flick that opened to just over $10 million.
Shark Night 3D dropped out of the Top 10 to #11 this weekend. The horror flick collected $1.8 million over the weekend, dropping
46.6% in the process and bringing its running total to $17.3 million. It will soon disappear from theatres, though, making around
$20 million in total.
At last, withstanding all the competition,
Stupid, Crazy, Love spent another weekend in the Top 12. Managing the best hold in the Top 12 for the third weekend in a row, it dropped
26.2% making $1.6 million and bringing its total to $80.8 million. It’s a very solid success for everyone involved as the film has showcased some of the best legs this summer. It’ll go on to finish with
$85 million.
