Personally, I have a feeling this is going to do a lot better then some people are thinking. It's consistently been on nearly every reviewers top ten list, and has been winning quite a handful of critic's circle awards. Charlie Kaufman winning the oscar for Best Original Screenplay seems like the closest thing there is to a lock right now, and if it won that, I don't see why it couldn't get a handful of other nods. Million Dollar Baby, The Aviator and Sideways are the only locks right now for that Best Picture oscar, as many would be contenders have quickly fallen off the chart, such as Closer, The Life Aquatic, Alexander, and Spanglish. Frankly I doubt that the Oscars will shut out Focus, and the only other two films that seem to have really good shots at a BP nom are Finding Neverland and Hotel Rwanda, unless I'm missing something (very possible, as it's nearly 4:00 AM for me). Miramax is already going to get a nod for The Aviator, and frankly, Finding Neverland was incredibly bland. I haven't seen Johnny Depp looking so bored in years. If that gets a nomination, I'm still not sure about Hotel Rwanda. It's a good subject but I don't know if it's been making enough noise, and it's being released by MGM, so I wouldn't be surprised at all if ESOTSM unseated it. Kate Winslet is also pretty much a lock for a Best Actress nomination, especially with that category being so shockingly weak this year. I suppose we'll see though...

I wish.


You are right, being an actual WINNER of Best Origional Screenplay would make it a big Best Picture contendor, but unfortunately, The Aviator, the potential winner is in this category and is likely to win Best Picture, making it's shot at the Best Origional Screenplay award that much more viable.

Remember, Screenplay nominees are determined by a guild process and the winners (and BP nominees/winners) are chosen by everyone, this is why there is so disconnect.


Outside of this website, World of KJ, Ray is a huge contender for a nomination not only because it has the potential Best Actor winner it also has the (highlighted and enlarged so people will see it):

Highest box office total of any of the potential top 8 or so nominees going into the season of nominations.*

* http://www.thehotbutton.com/


I agree.

I just don't think the Academy will see it. :?

I HOPE they'll at least nominate Eternal Sunshine for Best Picture, I'm pretty sure it won't win if it does though. It would be a pleasant surprise if it wins though.

It won't. Just not gonna happen.

The best actress category is not weak, it's just that some of the year's best performances (Kidman in Dogville, Thurman in Kill Bill, Dern in We Don't Live Here Anymore, Delpy in Sunset, and (maybe) Sandino-Moreno in Maria Full of Grace, for example) are unlikely to get recognition.


I wonder if I'm just giving in to all the people saying it can't happen sometimes, since for so long I had it in my predictions. And if you think about it, it does have a lot of the things required for best picture, strong campaign from studio, stellar reviews, good enough box office, strong fanbase (possibly not wide enough, but strong), AFI, Golden Globe nomination, Broadcast Film Critics, academy favorites attached to it (Kate Winslet, Kauffman...even if never for best picture). Numerous other awards.

I think with all the buzz Sideways is getting from critics, people are overlooking it, even though support from critics (even overwhelming support) doesn't necessarily translate to a best picture nomination. (Would Far From Heaven have gotten 6 golden globe nominations had it been a comedy, including best picture? ).

I think at the least there's a slighttttttttttttt chance for it still making it.


Of course the most overlooked film this year remains Fahrenheit 9/11. I think it has a great chance at best picture.

Add Julia Roberts to that list.

Now The Phantom of the Opera on the other hand... :wink:

Did I make a thread saying that it'll get a nom?

Well for one, this isn't a thread JUST saying it'll get a Best Picture nom, I think it could score in some other categories as well like Cinematography. And two, I might not have signed on until recently, but don't pretend to hide the past about your loyalty to the Phantom. :wink:

That was BEFORE it was snubbed and not too well-reviewed. I don't let myself get biased usually. Right now, The Phantom of the Opera has about the same chance for a Best Pic nom as Eternal Sunshine.

That is namely zero.

Actually, I would give Eternal Sunshine a 5% chance.

I would give Phantom of the Opera a -323424987194% chance of being nominated.

I agree. I don't think Eternal Sunshine and Phantom are even close to the same level. With reports so far, Eternal Sunshine is much, much better received then Phantom ever will be. Eternal Sunshine I think has a chance as it is is sort of the middle ground type film between a big film like The Aviator and all the lovely small films competing for the small film "slots". I know it's not this clear cut, but I think it has a chance in a way in this respect, plus the amazing reception it got, and still is getting now with critics lists and awards.

PEACE, Mike

I just came from the Phantom not 20 minutes ago.
I was a huge fan, though too young to remember much when I actually saw the stage version. I just loved all the songs.
While I thought it was okay and I will be giving it a borderline B/B-, it is nowhere near what I would have expected for an Oscar calliber movie.
Expect the ONLY thing from this movie, if even that, cinematography and original song maybe.... well then there is art direction and costume... but there is a chance it will be completely snubbed in my opinion!


and in regards to Eternal Sunshine, of the best of the year IMO, I have 3 words....

GIVE IT UP!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Why is Hotel Rwanda a competator and Eternal Sunshine is not?

Eternal Sunshine has more Golden Globe nods, it has more acclaim, it has more critic awards, and it is appearing on more end of the year lists. It is also from a studio that is heavy into the Oscar game in recent years.

1. It missed NBR top 10, so it didn't start on a good note.
2. Eternal Sushine is a quirky film, while Hotel Rwanda is an important film, and we know which one academy is likely to embrace.
3. Eternal Sunshine's calling card is Kaufman's script, while Hotel Rwanda's calling card is Don Cheadle's acting. Again, advantage Hotel Rwanda.

Oh I seriously believe Eternal Sunshine will get a nomination for Best Picture.

I agree. Also Hotel Rwanda is lagging right now, 25th in terms of critics lists, and no film outside the top 20 has ever been nominated (it could change, but after two updates it's still doing poor).

Hotel Rwanda is also another "small" film mushed together and competing with the rest of the small films vying for a spot. Eternal Sunshine has the edge in almost every category: bigger film, better received, more Golden Globes. Also, despite Hotel Rwanda being an actors film like xiayun pointed out, I would argue Eternal Sunshine is as well, seeing as how Kate Winslet got raves for her performance in that film, and both Kate and Jim got nominated at the Globes.

PEACE, Mike

Someone really, really, really needs to give this girl her Oscar already.

Is there anyone else out there who is as overdue as she is? I know she's still pretty young, and eventually, she will get it, but she is already such an accomplished actress. And the performance in the film itself is certainly Oscar-worthy, from what I've heard (I'm watching the film today or tomorrow)

I still think she was robbed in 1998. I mean, Helen Hunt? As Good as it Gets was a good movie, objectively speaking a very good movie, but Helen Hunt? Come on... . Leo was not the only one who carried Titanic, Kate had a lot to do with it, and for them to ignore that...urgh.

Hehe, anyways, best of luck to this film. If it was released in November, this would have been a lock for sure. Too bad short attention spans are such a problem in Hollywood.

If at the very least Kate Winslet isn't nominated for her performance..




Would all the people saying to give it up explain why? It's one thing to think it will probably miss out, which I guess I can agree with, but why do you guys think it's not even a contender? Yes, it missed out on NBR, at least it got an honorable mention of sorts though, and it has done really well both on critics lists and important awards ever since.So...Why not?

Because I think emotionally, we don't want to get crushed. When people love a film but understand its chance of nomination is small, we would rather be surprised than devastated coming nomination morning. It has a chance, but the fact still is that the movie is more for us geeks than the middle-age academy voters. That's why I wish the critics could've pushed it harder and make it more visible, but somehow it seems that it's always just below Sideways in all the votings, and nobody except us pays attention to runner-ups.

It does have a chance, but a very small one I would say. I really really want it to be nominated, but I don't think it will. Screenplay is a lock for at least a nod, and Kate is not a lock, but a sure bet. Other than that, I don't see anything, unfortunately.

While I still believe it'll miss out (and man, I wish it got the nom as I like Kaufman and Carrey is my favorite actor), I think that Kate Winslet will get a Best Actress nom.

Maybe it's just me, but I am fully prepared to see Eternal Sunshine on the list of Pics, and I'd be more surprised t NOT see it on there.

Honestly, I've been more and more good stuff about Eternal Sunshine. As people are saying, Hotel Rwanda really isn't doing that great on critics lists, and honestly, the main thing that seems to be praised is Cheadle's performance, with some saying the film gets a bit too sappy or melodramtic (ie The New York Times). The Aviator, Sideways and Million Dollar Baby are all locks, yes, but really, I don't think anything else is any more of a lock then Eternal Sunshine. add-rock made some good points about Ray, but I just don't think that we'll have more then three biopics get BP nominations, so I can't both that and Finding Neverland getting one of the slots in the top five. And really, I'm still not convinced that The Aviator will beat Sunshine for Best Original Screenplay. It'd be a bit hard to picture the winner of that not getting nominated for either Best Picture or Actor.