Great article. I am not really worried about Episode Three. It all comes down to quality. If it is half decent this time, it will still make big bucks. Hell, it will make big bucks anway! I still think it is as much of a lock for 300m as anything out there. I expect big hits from Madagascar and The Longest Yard, yes, but not too bad.

If it has a 90 million dollar opening, I see this happening:

2nd weekend:
55-70m Madagascar
40-50m SW3
30-40m Longest Yard

Not a terrible drop, really. Like I said, if it's good, it will do just fine. If it sucks ass, it will pull a Matrix II.

What I am worried about is July 4th. Looking at the production status of both films, I think WotW might move. It would could own most of July and August as the action flick. Let the competetion from TF4 die out, and put it in at mid-to-late July. That's my bet. Or do the same for TF4 (but it won't hold up nearly as well, especially against Doom, which might be the AvP of this year)....

I think a sub-$300m total for SW3 would be terrible; whatever the excuse was for EP 2's $302m (non-IMAX), there is no excuse if it happens a second time.


Anyways, the fans will go watch it no matter what, but it's the non-fans that make the difference. Remember how HP3 opened with $93m+ and failed to cross $250m? All the fans rushed to see it, but Shrek 2 had already taken the general audiences.

I just dont see Star Wars ROTS doing less than AOTC. I think it will follow the same pattern as the first films - ie. ROTJ made more than ESB.

Lets face it - this is the Star Wars film everyone was waiting for.

Yes, but who is waiting for it? And why can't they wait until the DVD comes out a few months post-theatre release? I have the patience to wait months for a film to arrive on DVD, who's to say millions won't do the same for SW?

There's only that much that many are willing to spend on movie tickets; the more crowded a market, the more likely for more films to be eating into each others' possible audiences.

By the way,

One of the most interesting things that the article suggested was that the weekend before the first weekend of May might become a hot commodity as well.


I think we will definitely see that happening because

1) Mean Girls showed you can have a great opening in that slot; it's not a dead period like September at all. Plus, keep in mind that college students starts getting off during that time (late April/early May).

2) Too much competition. There really is no way that so many big films will be able to compete year in year out. Fatique will set in sooner or later, and more likely sooner rather than later.

3) It makes for good counter-programming. Consider 2007, with Spider-Man 3 opening the summer first weekend of May, and Shrek 3 coming 2 weeks after that. Two of the three May weekends will be taken, and no studio is stupid enough to put any film up against those giants. But what they cando is to have a romantic comedy or some other kind of counter-programming open before the two big films open, so as to help WOM spread and maybe make some extra bucks before Spidey takes it away. It's a pretty effective strategy, if you think about it.

Edit: I'd move Kingdom of Heaven to the weekend before it is currently scheduled. It didn't hurt The Scorpion King to open in April, why should it hurt Kingdom?

Madagascar and SW3 can co-exist.

They are aimed at totally different audiences.

SW3 is a 250 lock, with the rest depending totally on reviews. It will need rave reviews to hit 400.

I can't imagine Revenge of the Sith grossing over $400 million. It would have to be better than the old Star Wars movies and have a huge opening to do that. I think this one will top out at around $350 million.

thx Box great article :rock:



i'm not don't underestimate the power of 'DARTH VADER.' even though he won't be in it much. lol
it will easily top aotc opening week and also it's 2nd weekend. call me fanboy :razz: but it'll draw more of the regular movie goers then aotc did. $310 million will be struck down by Vaders mighty saber.

i'll start worrying when batman moves his date to May. :wink:

Ohhhhhhhhh, I wouldn't worry about that one. I think SW3 would win that battle. It's just that slew of films one weekend after another that will really push the market's capacity to contain all films.


2004 had its share of losers too...Riddick? [-X

If you're reading this, and your name is Miruvor: Relax! It's in good fun.


Psychiatrists Treating Phantom of the Opera Viewers







HOLLYWOOD—Psychiatrists in select cities nationwide have reported a surge in Post-Melodramatic Stress Disorder cases following the Dec. 22 release of Andrew Lloyd Webber's The Phantom Of The Opera.

"We're seeing a barrage of psychological consequences in those who have been exposed to the violently overblown acting and protracted, heightened emotions in The Phantom Of The Opera," said Bill Lambert, a psychology professor at the University of Chicago. "After such intense abuse of their artistic sensibilities, melodrama victims are finding themselves plagued by extreme sentimentality, flashbacks to especially torturous scenes, and canned-emotional detachment."

According to Lambert, a good portion of PMSD sufferers are experiencing distress so great that it is interfering with their jobs as overweight receptionists, struggling fashion designers, and community-theater actors.

"PMSD sufferers walk through their days with the specter of an unnecessary musical number hanging over them like a mask," Lambert said. "The prelude is constantly playing in their unconscious minds, threatening to crescendo into exaggerated, choreographed action at any moment. Anything can set them off: a chandelier, a strain of saccharine music, a gaudy outfit."

According to Lambert, PMSD victims are vulnerable to further emotional manipulation.

"Those who have witnessed Phantom often tend to leave themselves open to additional emotional battery, whether in the form of another vapid musical or a book of heartwarming anecdotes," Lambert said. "Programs that appear contrived to healthy people appear heartbreakingly sad to PMSD sufferers. They sometimes sit and stare at the Hallmark Channel for hours on end."

Lambert urged loved ones to watch possible PMSD sufferers closely and seek professional help if necessary.

"It's impossible to know what your friends and loved ones are going through if you haven't witnessed the rapidly vacillating extremes of Phantom," said Dr. Harris Jones, a prominent New York psychiatrist who specializes in entertainment-related disorders. "Offer your support, but do not claim to understand the levels of treacle a PMSD sufferer has survived."
Melodramatized moviegoers exit a theater in Chicago.

Post-melodramatic stress disorder was first identified in 1949, following the debut of the World War II-themed South Pacific. Though anecdotal evidence of PMSD mounted for the next four decades, the affliction was not studied at length until researchers at Cornell performed a systematic analysis of theatergoers returning from the 1989 opening of the Vietnam-era musical Miss Saigon.

In recent years, researchers have found that PMSD can result from any number of near-tragic dramas, be they live musical theater or televised soap opera. They found PMSD especially dangerous among individuals already suffering from disbelief suspension, aesthetic vacuity, or general mental insufficiency.

While PMSD isn't a new phenomenon, the magnitude of the current outbreak is unprecedented.

"This outbreak rivals the Broadway Phantom epidemic of 1988," said Dr. David Sussman, a psychiatrist at Beth Israel Medical Center in New York. "Many victims choose to relive the horrifying play season after season."

"And even if they don't see the play several times, the unfortunate fact is that those who have seen Phantom never forget their first time," Sussman added.

Boston resident Leo Wilson was forced by his girlfriend to see a preview of the film version of Phantom.

"I was led down a dark hallway. I found myself in a large room filled with rows of chairs all facing in the same direction," Wilson said. "I sat down, and I was subjected to a series of horrendously overwrought images. I was powerless to stop them. I cried out, but I was silenced by those around me and forced to watch for what seemed like hours."

After several days spent with the song "Think Of Me" playing over and over again in his head, Wilson sought psychiatric treatment.

"I don't blame any one aspect of the melodrama—the shallow characters, the unbelievable swings in emotion, the repellent score," Wilson said. "But I can't help regretting that there was no absolutely redeeming value to this atrocity. We all suffered for nothing. It's hard to come to terms with the fact that a human being would perpetrate three such unconscionable acts upon another human."


http://www.theonion.com/news/index.php?issue=4051&n=1


Is that what you want Andrew? [-X =;





Note: The film was also reported to have made Baby Jesus cry:




Even God disapproves [-X

2003's Contribution to Spring 2004



I am not going to count 2004's filsm towards 2005, since my intention is to keep track of 2005 and its films specifically. However, there is no denying that holdovers contribute greatly to the box office of any given year, especially if one of the December releases is a blockbuster, as was the case 2001-2003 with LOTR. 2004 has MTF, which is keeping up very well with those films.

All in all, 19.79% of the totals for 2003 films that were holdovers came from 2004. It's a much greater percentage for films that expanded due to the Awards season.


Rank. Film Title Gross (2004) (2003 Gross/Total Gross UNTIL Thursday before Van Helsing's Opening)


1 The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King $114,485,745 ( $262,230,583 / $376,716,328 )
2 Cheaper by the Dozen $74,565,136 ( $63,975,558 / $138,540,694 )
3 Cold Mountain $63,216,509 ( $32,157,475 / $95,373,984 )
4 Big Fish $60,864,993 ( $5,909,758 / $66,774,751 )
5 Something's Gotta Give $55,222,185 ( $69,506,553 / $124,728,738 )
6 Mystic River $36,159,707 ( $53,890,707 / $90,050,414 )
7 Monster $34,206,236 ( $225,206 / $34,431,442 )
8 Calendar Girls $28,525,647 ( $2,516,112 / $31,041,759 )
9 The Last Samurai $28,483,645 ( $82,643,618 / $111,127,263 )
10 Paycheck $24,983,312 ( $28,807,139 / $53,790,451 )
11 Peter Pan $23,079,410 ( $25,360,480 / $48,439,890 )
12 Mona Lisa Smile $22,154,970 ( $41,705,972 / $63,860,942 )
13 Lost in Translation $13,498,751 ( $31,086,702 / $44,585,453 )
14 Master and Commander: The Far Side of the World $12,038,122 ( $81,888,264 / $93,926,386 )
15 In America $11,436,120 ( $4,076,446 / $15,512,566 )
16 Girl with a Pearl Earring $11,016,079 ( $654,892 / $11,670,971 )
17 21 Grams $10,359,183 ( $5,931,293 / $16,290,476 )
18 House of Sand and Fog $9,444,918 ( $3,595,370 / $13,040,288 )
19 Le Grande Seduction $9,129,006 ( / )
20 The Haunted Mansion $7,930,766 ( $67,916,500 / $75,847,266 )
21 The Cooler $6,795,350 ( $1,496,222 / $8,291,572 )
22 Pulse: A Stomp Odyssey (IMAX) $6,415,852 ( / )
23 Bad Santa $6,088,469 ( $53,971,859 / $60,060,328 )
24 The Triplets of Belleville $6,040,159 ( $814,817 / $6,854,976 )
25 Stuck on You $5,913,755 ( $27,918,986 / $33,832,741 )
26 Elf $4,864,441 ( $168,534,077 / $173,398,518 )
27 The Young Black Stallion (IMAX) $4,728,256 ( $1,594,595 / $6,322,851 )
28 The Fog of War $3,981,016 ( $195,000 / $4,176,016 )
29 Space Station 3-D (IMAX) $3,836,082 ( $46,265,446 / $50,101,528 )
30 Love Don't Cost a Thing $3,648,416 ( $18,256,851 / $21,905,267 )
31 Bugs! (IMAX) $3,354,944 ( $4,348,201 / $7,703,145 )
32 Love Actually $2,775,118 ( $56,697,160 / $59,472,278 )
33 City of God $2,724,638 ( $4,786,472 / $7,511,110 )
34 The Barbarian Invasions $2,717,244 ( $666,908 / $3,384,152 )
35 The Cat in the Hat $2,696,459 ( $98,395,200 / $101,091,659 )
36 Brother Bear $2,568,038 ( $82,768,239 / $85,336,277 )
37 Honey $2,527,909 ( $27,744,345 / $30,272,254 )
38 Monsieur Ibrahim $2,353,695 ( / )
39 My Architect $2,108,775 ( $337,055 / $2,445,830 )
40 The Company $2,057,711 ( $223,874 / $2,281,585 )
41 Gothika $1,775,396 ( $57,848,673 / $59,624,069 )
42 School of Rock $1,293,753 ( $79,967,424 / $81,261,177 )
43 The Station Agent $1,239,027 ( $4,500,349 / $5,739,376 )
44 The Matrix Revolutions $1,162,624 ( $138,108,286 / $139,270,910 )
45 T-Rex: Back to the Cretaceous (IMAX) $1,119,922 ( $46,838,366 / $47,958,288 )
46 The Missing $1,005,666 ( $26,005,514 / $27,011,180 )
47 The Gospel of John $982,092 ( $3,086,998 / $4,069,090 )
48 Radio $720,308 ( $51,613,430 / $52,333,738 )
49 The Legend of Johnny Lingo $716,818 ( $973,949 / $1,690,767 )
50 Ghosts of the Abyss (IMAX & 35mm) $680,954 ( $15,265,717 / $15,946,671 )
51 Scary Movie 3 $597,818 ( $109,405,399 / $110,003,217 )
52 Japanese Story $587,803 ( $8,737 / $596,540 )
53 Alexandra's Project $560,279 ( $191,869 / $752,148 )
54 Looney Tunes: Back in Action $535,950 ( $20,455,414 / $20,991,364 )
55 The Statement $507,942 ( $257,695 / $765,637 )
56 Blue Gate Crossing $501,312 ( $3,288 / $504,600 )
57 Runaway Jury $490,037 ( $48,953,591 / $49,443,628 )
58 Haunted Castle (IMAX) $475,725 ( $7,959,685 / $8,435,410 )
59 Nez Rouge $473,304 ( $1,531,510 / $2,004,814 )
60 Kill Bill Vol. 1 $466,507 ( $69,614,896 / $70,081,403 )
61 Timeline $402,861 ( $19,079,082 / $19,481,943 )
62 Under the Tuscan Sun $399,342 ( $43,211,381 / $43,610,723 )
63 Galapagos (IMAX) $365,945 ( $14,256,558 / $14,622,503 )
64 The Texas Chainsaw Massacre $328,448 ( $80,243,207 / $80,571,655 )
65 To Be and to Have $227,413 ( $533,628 / $761,041 )
66 Pride and Prejudice $217,687 ( $144,584 / $362,271 )
67 Santa vs. the Snowman - Season 2 (IMAX) $214,152 ( $2,830,880 / $3,045,032 )
68 Tibet: Cry of the Snow Lion $178,755 ( $367,525 / $546,280 )
69 Underworld $158,016 ( $51,812,674 / $51,970,690 )
70 Pieces of April $152,512 ( $2,376,152 / $2,528,664 )
71 The Gatekeeper $143,036 ( $166,901 / $309,937 )
72 Shattered Glass $141,209 ( $2,078,799 / $2,220,008 )
73 Annie Brocoli dans les fonds marin $132,120 ( $242,240 / $374,360 )
74 AKA $130,104 ( $16,573 / $146,677 )
75 Spy Kids 3D: Game Over $115,631 ( $111,646,351 / $111,761,982 )
76 Postmen in the Mountains $110,117 ( $13,841 / $123,958 )
77 Freaky Friday $107,585 ( $110,122,747 / $110,230,332 )
78 Secret Things $105,090 ( $0 / $105,090 )
79 L.O.C. (Kargil) $94,220 ( $526,883 / $621,103 )
80 Modern Times (Re-issue) $92,727 ( $70,850 / $163,577 )
81 Lost Boys of Sudan $88,598 ( / )
82 Kal Ho Naa Ho $77,403 ( $1,914,519 / $1,991,922 )
83 Yossi and Jagger $77,243 ( $189,762 / $267,005 )
84 I Vitelloni $64,945 ( $51,483 / $116,428 )
85 The Animation Show $61,738 ( $304,606 / $366,344 )
86 The Weather Underground $58,403 ( $499,265 / $557,668 )
87 Il Cuore Altrove $57,519 ( $51,435 / $108,954 )
88 Bus 174 $54,441 ( $162,760 / $217,201 )
89 Intolerable Cruelty $53,890 ( $35,273,738 / $35,327,628 )
90 Suddenly $44,806 ( / )
91 Dirty Pretty Things $42,307 ( $8,070,107 / $8,112,414 )
92 Hukkle $42,220 ( $11,726 / $53,946 )
93 Encounter in the 3rd Dimension (IMAX) $39,041 ( $6,954,494 / $6,993,535 )
94 The Bread, My Sweet $35,084 ( $988,072 / $1,023,156 )
95 Out of Time $33,153 ( $41,055,692 / $41,088,845 )
96 Blizzard $27,691 ( $476,909 / $504,600 )
97 Elephant $27,519 ( $1,239,436 / $1,266,955 )
98 Bonhoeffer $27,157 ( $269,024 / $296,181 )
99 The Human Stain $26,271 ( $5,355,637 / $5,381,908 )
100 The Hebrew Hammer $26,247 ( $55,910 / $82,157 )
101 Alien Adventure (IMAX) $23,079 ( $4,319,784 / $4,342,863 )
102 Cirque du Soleil: Journey of Man (IMAX) $22,700 ( $15,604,734 / $15,627,434 )
103 China: The Panda Adventure (IMAX) $22,165 ( $3,681,373 / $3,703,538 )
104 Good Boy! $16,489 ( $37,651,257 / $37,667,746 )
105 Party Monster $13,089 ( $729,809 / $742,898 )
106 Millenium Mambo $11,948 ( $2,956 / $14,904 )
107 The Singing Detective $10,943 ( $326,231 / $337,174 )
108 Pirates of the Caribbean: The Curse of the Black Pearl $10,478 ( $305,403,440 / $305,413,918 )
109 Carnage $7,740 ( $52,418 / $60,158 )
110 Monty Python and the Holy Grail (Re-issue) $6,614 ( $1,821,082 / $1,827,696 )
111 Porn Theatre $6,577 ( $25,076 / $31,653 )
112 demonlover $4,952 ( $227,092 / $232,044 )
113 Rivers and Tides $4,048 ( $2,196,228 / $2,200,276 )
114 The Flower of Evil $4,044 ( $178,119 / $182,163 )
115 Venus Boyz $3,485 ( $15,030 / $18,515 )
116 Seaside $1,524 ( $13,766 / $15,290 )
117 The Embalmer $688 ( $56,190 / $56,878 )


TOTAL: $749,843,213 ( $3,056,654,741 / $3,788,465,997 )




NOTE: 2004's box office year officially started January 2nd, 2004, and not January 1st.

Friday Estimates



COACH CARTER 8.3
MEET THE FOCKERS 5.6
IN GOOD COMPANY 4.5
ELEKTRA 4.5
WHITE NOISE 3.7
RACING STRIPES 3.3
AVIATOR, THE 1.4
PHANTOM OF THE OPERA, THE 1.0
OCEAN'S TWELVE 1.0
LEMONY SNICKET'S A SERIES OF UNFORTUNATE EVENTS .9


WOW

I won't put up any charts until BOM estimates are in, but wow, that is kinda low for Elektra, but extraordinary for Coach Carter!


So we have yet another top 10 January Opening! So far, it's shaping out to be a great month!

Horrible for Elektra! Great for Coach Carter. This is truly the year of suprises!!!! Even In Good Company beat Elektra!! I believe In Good Company is a 2005 opener. In the ads it said January 14 was its opening day and I believe the December 29th release was for the awards.

What is it considered officially? If this is just a wide release for In Good Company, it would technically not be a 2005 release. We could include it among the 2005 ones though, since only a tiny fraction of its gross (less than $100k) is from 2004.

As I said all the ads even around Christmas said the movie was opening January 14th.

It will be considered a 2004 release, since it was released at least in one theater in 2004.

DOMESTIC YEARLY 2005
1. White Noise - $32,838,000 (1/7)
2. Coach Carter - $8,274,000 (1/14)
3. In Good Company - $5,034,000 (1/14*)
4. Elektra - $4,489,000 (1/14)
5. Racing Stripes - $3,275,000 (1/14)

(wide releases only)
* date film went wide!!

Then ok, we can't include it among the 2005 films.


But hey, CC did well enough, lol, so no worries. I was hoping Elektra would give us another big opening, but oh well. It didn't do bad though.

That is good for CC.

Nobody expected Elektra to do worse than Catwoman. Zing and others have seen it and have said it is far better than Catwoman :???: Hopefully other movies will make up for it.

Ya, but Catwoman was a summer release, and was more high-profile. I doubt many went into Catwoman knowing it was as bad as it turned out to be (on average, we here know much more about movies prior to their release than the avg. filmgoer). A lot of people simply don't have the time to go watch movies this time of the year. I mean, work, school, etc.

Funny thing is, we need 5 $20m weekends to match The Passion's first 5 days; that, ultimately, is what concerns me, whether The Passion can be made up for or not.

I expect Robots and Ring Two to give 2005 a major boost, but we need films like CC and White Noise to pull ahead of next year.

Robots and The Ring 2 will account for a big chunk of Passion. Plus there will be some surprises with horror movies like Boogeyman. Most movies in the genre over the last 2 years have done fairly well.

I guess we can call 2005 THE YEAR OF SURPRISES.

Take a look at this:

White Noise $24m opening weekend
Coach Carter $20m+ opening weekend
In Good Company beats Elektra on Jan. 14 despite being in less than half of Elektra's theaters

What's next???

You mean in terms of surprises?

Well, The Ring Two could open with $60m, and Robots with $35-40m. That would help a lot, lol, and I think it would be surprising.

Yes in terms of surprises. Ring Two and Robots are going to do good, but what films are going to come out of nowhere. I have a feeling another horror film in Feb-Mar will open big.