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 January 14-16 Predictions 
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Naturalflux7 wrote:
Meet the Fockers is a teen targeted sequel. Somethings gotta give was directed at an audience that typically do not rush out to see a movie - hence its amazing legs.

I can see Fockers at around $20m, and Elektra around $24m with Coach Carter $19m and Racing Stripes at $16m

I think that Carter may put up Man on Fire resistance that beat 13 going on 30s opening by a whisker back in April; but i really hope not - Elektra deserves the top.


Teen Targeted Sequal???? - You could say that about the American Pie or movies like that but you can't say that about Meet the Parents / Fockers.

I will bet you that Deniro, Hoffman, and Streisand is bring alot more of the older mature crowd and it is equal between young and older viewers.

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Last edited by Goldie on Sun Jan 09, 2005 8:43 pm, edited 2 times in total.



Sun Jan 09, 2005 8:41 pm
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shades033 wrote:
I think the post trying to compare Jennifer Garner (star of 2 $20 million+ openers) to Pamela Anderson...who isn't even considered an actress!...is the funniest thing I've read. Elektra doesn't half the negative advance buzz as Catwoman (or Barb Wire, for that matter) and I think that it actually looks okay. Totally agree with most of the post above though...I blame Ain't It Cool News in the generally jaded negative reaction to every superhero movie these days. I expect it to continue for Constantine, Sin City and Fantastic Four too.

She wasnt the star of Daredevil and she would of hardly had any effect on the opening for that movie. As for 13 Going on 30, it freaking opened in 3413 theaters and it holds the record for the lowest per theater average for a movie in over 3000 theaters. Check its theater average of $6000. And nope my comparison to Barbwire isnt that far off. The reviews for the movie will be bad as the clips shown


Sun Jan 09, 2005 8:41 pm
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El_masked_esteROIDe_user wrote:
shades033 wrote:
I think the post trying to compare Jennifer Garner (star of 2 $20 million+ openers) to Pamela Anderson...who isn't even considered an actress!...is the funniest thing I've read. Elektra doesn't half the negative advance buzz as Catwoman (or Barb Wire, for that matter) and I think that it actually looks okay. Totally agree with most of the post above though...I blame Ain't It Cool News in the generally jaded negative reaction to every superhero movie these days. I expect it to continue for Constantine, Sin City and Fantastic Four too.

She wasnt the star of Daredevil and she would of hardly had any effect on the opening for that movie. As for 13 Going on 30, it freaking opened in 3413 theaters and it holds the record for the lowest per theater average for a movie in over 3000 theaters. Check its theater average of $6000. And nope my comparison to Barbwire isnt that far off. The reviews for the movie will be bad as the clips shown



That would actually help if it were true.
Agent Cody Banks holds that record.

13 going on 30's problem was it was opened way too wide and its commercials made it look too generic; a standard chick flick without much else to offer - many thought of it as being a rip off of BIG and waited for the dvd. But the response was positive.


Sun Jan 09, 2005 8:45 pm
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Goldie wrote:
Naturalflux7 wrote:
Meet the Fockers is a teen targeted sequel. Somethings gotta give was directed at an audience that typically do not rush out to see a movie - hence its amazing legs.

I can see Fockers at around $20m, and Elektra around $24m with Coach Carter $19m and Racing Stripes at $16m

I think that Carter may put up Man on Fire resistance that beat 13 going on 30s opening by a whisker back in April; but i really hope not - Elektra deserves the top.


Teen Targeted Sequal???? - You could say that about the American Pie or movies like that but you can't say that about Meet the Parents / Fockers.

I will bet you that Deniro, Hoffman, and Streisand is bring alot more of the older mature crowd and it is equal between young and older viewers.


Since the first one skewed towards the younger demographics, it makes sense that this one would too. However that said you do have a point. The vet actors involved probobly widened it into a multiple quadrant movie.

The point i was trying to make is that Fockers has and is going to continue to be more fronloaded than Somethings Gotta Give


Sun Jan 09, 2005 8:46 pm
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Damn roid, looks like the Star Wars and Lord of the Rings fanboys are going to have to move over: The Garners are a defensive bunch. :lol: We're being accused of goin with the flow, when in fact most people are predicting 20-25+ million weekends for Elektra. Ok, so 13 Going on 30 did better then Agent Cody Banks. Chasing Liberty opened higher then First Daughter, big deal. And how can you say 13 Going on 30 was HURT by so many theaters? I'm not debating whether or not people liked the movie, I'm debating whether or not many of them went to see what was essentially a movie sold on just Garner, and it underperformed, plain and simple. No, there aren'tany reviews so far on RottenTomatoes for Elektra, but everything that has floated in has been absolutely awful. My older brother gave it a D-, the first time he has since Connie and Carla 8 months ago. How can you say that we're making general opinion fact when you say that Coach Carter isn't getting any buzz or ads because you and your goomba friends haven't seen any ads? At the poll I had at my movie club for Most Anticipated January release, which over 150 high school students go to, Coach Carter led by a whopping 40%, with Elektra, White Noise, and Assault on Precinct 13 at about 15% each, and everything else off the radar. It may not be hugely scientific, but show me something that your average joe wants to see Elektra more. And no, "everyone in my film class wants to see it!" is not a fair argument.


Sun Jan 09, 2005 9:01 pm
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I really think Coach Carter Or MTF will take the number 1 spot. The reviews for CC have been great, plus it looks like a very good drama.
Elektra will fail I think...prolly around 15 million AT MOST. I don't think this film will cross 50 million

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MovieDude wrote:
Damn roid, looks like the Star Wars and Lord of the Rings fanboys are going to have to move over: The Garners are a defensive bunch. :lol: We're being accused of goin with the flow, when in fact most people are predicting 20-25+ million weekends for Elektra. Ok, so 13 Going on 30 did better then Agent Cody Banks. Chasing Liberty opened higher then First Daughter, big deal. And how can you say 13 Going on 30 was HURT by so many theaters? I'm not debating whether or not people liked the movie, I'm debating whether or not many of them went to see what was essentially a movie sold on just Garner, and it underperformed, plain and simple. No, there aren'tany reviews so far on RottenTomatoes for Elektra, but everything that has floated in has been absolutely awful. My older brother gave it a D-, the first time he has since Connie and Carla 8 months ago. How can you say that we're making general opinion fact when you say that Coach Carter isn't getting any buzz or ads because you and your goomba friends haven't seen any ads? At the poll I had at my movie club for Most Anticipated January release, which over 150 high school students go to, Coach Carter led by a whopping 40%, with Elektra, White Noise, and Assault on Precinct 13 at about 15% each, and everything else off the radar. It may not be hugely scientific, but show me something that your average joe wants to see Elektra more. And no, "everyone in my film class wants to see it!" is not a fair argument.

:mrgreen:
Watch out for those Garner fans, they will attack you in full force for not recognizing the mighty Alias. Not to mention the Garner messenger is from England so what does he really know about what the american public wants


Sun Jan 09, 2005 9:15 pm
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MovieDude wrote:
And no, "everyone in my film class wants to see it!" is not a fair argument.


Say what you will but dont misquote me.
Imnot the kind of person who can spend my days arguing with other people about whos opinion is more valid and proper. So lets leave it out eh?

Furthermore it would help if i actually was from England.
Again the power of assumption is so strong with you mighty smart people that i never fail to be amazed as to your powers of insight and knowing exactly what the public wants =;


Last edited by Michael. on Sun Jan 09, 2005 9:22 pm, edited 1 time in total.



Sun Jan 09, 2005 9:21 pm
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Not all Garner fans are defensive. Mr. X has a feeling that Elektra is going to suck.

What a disloyal fan. =;


Sun Jan 09, 2005 9:22 pm
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Hey, i thought Daredevil was terrible and i was a big Jennifer Garner fan then too.


Sun Jan 09, 2005 9:25 pm
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Actually, I don't think I can be considered a Jennifer Garner fan...I've only see one episode of Alias--the season premier last week..and I didn't even watch the whole two hours. But I still thought Garner was the best part of the Daredevil movie and I'm looking forward to seeing Elektra.

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Sun Jan 09, 2005 9:41 pm
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Meet the Fockers - $21.5m
Coach Carter - $18.6m (the Miracle of '05)
Racing Stripes - $15.4m (Little less than Kangaroo Jack, I believe)
In Good Company - $9.6m (Let's hope this doesn't end like Win a Date with Tad Hamilton!)
Elektra - $18.8m


Sun Jan 09, 2005 10:22 pm
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BJs early wknd outlook 8)

1.Elektra - 27.06m New
2.Coach Carter - 26.25m New
3.Meet the Fockers - 21.51m (-24% from last Wknd)
4.In Good Company - 12.95m New
5.White Noice - 12.49m (-48% from last Wknd)
6.The Racing Stripes - 12.05m New
7.The Aviator - 6.75m (-12%% from last Wknd)
8.Lemony Snicket's A Series of Unfortunate Events - 5.47m (-27% from last Wknd)
9.Fat Albert - 4.30m (-28% from last Wknd)
10.Oceans Twelve - 4.12m (-25% from last Wknd)
11.Spanglish - 3.42m (-22% from last Wknd)
12.National Treasure - 2.90m (-35% from last Wknd)

Top Ten Total: 131.95m
Top Twelve Total: 138.09m

4-Day Wknd:
1.Coach Carter - 31.26m New
2.Elektra - 31.09m New
3.Meet the Fockers - 25.07m (-12% from last Wknd)
4.The Racing Stripes - 16.81m New
5.In Good Company - 15.79m New
6.White Noice - 14.25m (-41% from last Wknd)
7.The Aviator - 7.69m (+1%% from last Wknd)
8.Lemony Snicket's A Series of Unfortunate Events - 7.27m (-2% from last Wknd)
9.Fat Albert - 5.73m (-5% from last Wknd)
10.Oceans Twelve - 4.81m (-10% from last Wknd)
11.Spanglish - 4.06m (-8% from last Wknd)
12.National Treasure - 4.06m (-9% from last Wknd)

Top Ten Total: 159.77m
Top Twelve Total: 167.89m

:cool:

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Sun Jan 09, 2005 11:47 pm
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Interesting prediction for Coach Carter, BJ. So, you think it will have a $13,125 PTA? Remember, this is not only an MTV film, but most sports movies don't have PTA's over $10,000. I don't think even Remember the Titans did.


Mon Jan 10, 2005 12:04 am
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Zingaling wrote:
Interesting prediction for Coach Carter, BJ. So, you think it will have a $13,125 PTA? Remember, this is not only an MTV film, but most sports movies don't have PTA's over $10,000. I don't think even Remember the Titans did.


Zing, no way this only has 2000 theaters. White Noise had that many because industry analysts were expecting 6 million. Urban films tend to get theater openings that wide, but I believe this has interest beyond just the big cities. I'd count on at least 2,300.


Mon Jan 10, 2005 12:25 am
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Even if that is so, and it does get 2,300 theaters, it would still be a PTA of $11,400. I still think anything over $10,000 is unlikely. Remember the Titans had great WOM going into it, and it had a $11,000 PTA. I don't think Coach Carter has WOM anywhere near what Remember the Titans had. Plus, even Friday Night Lights had positive WOM and reviews going into it, but that had a $7,000 PTA. I can't imagine Coach Carter doing an $11,000+ PTA.


Mon Jan 10, 2005 12:34 am
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Zingaling wrote:
Interesting prediction for Coach Carter, BJ. So, you think it will have a $13,125 PTA? Remember, this is not only an MTV film, but most sports movies don't have PTA's over $10,000. I don't think even Remember the Titans did.


Zing I base my prediction off a 2500 theater count Friday Night Lights had over 2600 theaters I think this can pull around the same amount. Remember the Titans had an 11,209 theater average :wink: with a theater count over 2500 it will score just over a 10,000 screen average. I see a lot of apeal from people toward this film that are not part of the internet croud such as myself. i think it can clear 25m but the prediction I set will not be final till I see its offical theater count :cool:

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Mon Jan 10, 2005 1:27 am
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I agree with Zing...I don't think Coach Carter can have a PSA over $10k...Friday Night LIghts and Remember the Titans both opened in October in less busy weekends where this is opening in a weekend where there is quite a bit of competition in all the demographics that might be interested in it. I'm thinking $14-17 million for it.

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Mon Jan 10, 2005 8:27 am
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1.Meet the Fockers - 23.00m
2.Elektra - 18.0m New
3.Coach Carter - 17.7m New
4.The Racing Stripes - 13.0m New
5.In Good Company - 10.0m New
6.White Noice - 11.9m
7.The Aviator - 6.6m
8.Lemony Snicket's A Series of Unfortunate Events - 5.4m
9.Fat Albert - 4.3m
10.Oceans Twelve - 4.3m
11.Spanglish - 3.45m
12.National Treasure - 3.0m

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Mon Jan 10, 2005 8:59 am
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shades033 wrote:
I agree with Zing...I don't think Coach Carter can have a PSA over $10k...Friday Night LIghts and Remember the Titans both opened in October in less busy weekends where this is opening in a weekend where there is quite a bit of competition in all the demographics that might be interested in it. I'm thinking $14-17 million for it.
]

Friday Night Lights had to fight off Ladder 49's second weekend and The Forgotten's third, over 20 million combined, and both direct competition. I think that Carter has considerably less competition.


Mon Jan 10, 2005 10:45 am
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ive got In Good Company tipped as a One to Watch http://naturalflux7.com/forums/showthread.php?t=1457 so i do think this one can definately pull in good numbers this weekend.

Coach Carter will proboby see around 2,400 theaters top if BOM is estimating 2,000. Which means a weekend of $20m+ will probobly be out of reach.

Elektra will probobly get around 3,100 and Racing Stripes will saddle up with a similar figure.
Stripes could pull in above $15m, but i still see Elektra as winning this battle unless Coach Carter can really break out.

But imo, Coach Carter may be a little transparent to movie goers as yet another sports drama. Ive even read some negative pre-response on movie message boards, which is unusual for a sports film to be honest. Lots of "do we really need another" and "this movies gonna suck" posts. Although, granted, Elektra is getting a similar opposition on movie boards.

Also, the subject matter is basketball. Its not a football movie which means its not going to be as big. The trailers make it seem like "its been done before" and lack excitement and any special appeal. I think that Friday Night Lights had a terriffic ads campiagn and a good subject matter.


Mon Jan 10, 2005 10:48 am
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Friday Night Lights also didn't have any big name stars (Billy Bob doesn't really bring in that many people). Sam Jackson and Ashanti will bring in some big crowds alone. As for the been there done that and low theatre count thing, White Noise killed both this weekend. Elektra also has the been there done that thing going on 'cept with Catwoman and Daredevil being it's previous'. Coach Carter has Friday Night Lights, which was much better received. Meet The Fockers could easily top both though. But for now, I still say Carter tops the chart with $22M, with Fockers as a close second with $20.5M. This weekend is gonna be pretty big, hope we don't have to wait till 2 for the numbers again.


Mon Jan 10, 2005 4:31 pm
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The reviews are more important for Coach Carter than either Elektra or Racing Stripes. With good reviews, I don't see why Coach Carter can't approach Friday Night Lights's numbers. From my tracking indicators, Elektra and Coach Carter should do well, while Racing Stripes will have a low PTA.

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Mon Jan 10, 2005 5:19 pm
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1.Elektra - 19.5m
2.Coach Carter - 19m
3.Meet the Fockers - 18.5m
4.The Racing Stripes - 14m
5.White Noice - 12m
6.In Good Company - 11m
7.The Aviator - 5m
8.Lemony Snicket's A Series of Unfortunate Events - 5m
9.Fat Albert - 3.5m
10. The Phantom of the Opera $2.8m


Mon Jan 10, 2005 7:37 pm
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Doesn't House of Flying Daggers expand this weekend?

Anyone think it'll enter the top 10 if it does expand?

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