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zingy
College Boy Z
Joined: Mon Oct 11, 2004 8:40 pm Posts: 36662
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 January 14-16 Predictions
It's Martin Luther King weekend, so drops won't be too harsh.
1. Elektra - $24.2 million
2. Meet the Fockers - $19.9 million
3. Coach Carter - $14.0 million
4. White Noise - $13.2 million
5. Racing Stripes - $12.0 million
Last edited by zingy on Mon Jan 17, 2005 9:06 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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Sun Jan 09, 2005 2:08 pm |
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Flava'd vs The World
The Kramer
Joined: Sat Oct 23, 2004 11:36 am Posts: 25332 Location: Classified
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Coach Carter $21.7M
Elektra $19.3M
Racing Stripes $14.5M
Carter and Elektra will both make around $7M opening day, but Elektra will be more frontloaded.
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Sun Jan 09, 2005 2:49 pm |
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El Maskado
Arrrrrrrrrrgggghhhhhhhhhh!
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 8:17 pm Posts: 21572
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Racing Stripes 20.0 million
Elektra 18.5 million
Coach Carter 15.0 million
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Sun Jan 09, 2005 3:01 pm |
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Libs
Sbil
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 3:38 pm Posts: 48677 Location: Arlington, VA
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1. Meet the Fockers - $22.5 million
2. Elektra - $18 million
3. Coach Carter - $15 million
4. Racing Stripes - $12 million
5. In Good Company - $11 million
6. White Noise - $11 million
7. The Aviator - $5 million
8. Lemony Snicket - $4.5 million
9. Fat Albert - $4 million
10. Ocean's Twelve - $3.5 million
Yes, I think Meet the Fockers will be the first movie since Return of the King to top for 4 consecutive weeks.
Last edited by Libs on Sun Jan 09, 2005 3:08 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Sun Jan 09, 2005 3:02 pm |
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xXVincentxX
La Bella Vito
Joined: Fri Oct 15, 2004 11:56 pm Posts: 9146
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Libs wrote: 1. Meet the Fockers - $22.5 million 2. Elektra - $18 million 3. Coach Carter - $15 million 4. Racing Stripes - $12 million 5. In Good Company - $11 million 6. White Noise - $11 million 7. The Aviator - $5 million 8. Lemony Snicket - $4.5 million 9. Fat Albert - $4 million 10. Ocean's Twelve - $3.5 million
There we go! I like those predictions very much. I have no idea why people are predicting Elektra so high. It will be lucky to break $20 million in my opinion. I hope Fockers remains number one.
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Sun Jan 09, 2005 3:08 pm |
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MovieDude
Where will you be?
Joined: Tue Dec 21, 2004 4:50 am Posts: 11675
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For the openers:
Coach Carter 19 million
Elektra 17 million
Racing Stripes 15 million
In Good Company 10.5 million
Holdovers:
Meet the Fockers 18 million
White Noise 10 million
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Sun Jan 09, 2005 4:32 pm |
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Animosity Reigns
Indiana Jones IV
Joined: Tue Oct 19, 2004 8:41 pm Posts: 1777 Location: The Dirty South
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its going to be very tight in the top 4 possibly all only having about 3 million between them all
Coach
elektra
fockers
racing stripes
im seeing all between 17 and 20 million
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Sun Jan 09, 2005 5:21 pm |
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Libs
Sbil
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 3:38 pm Posts: 48677 Location: Arlington, VA
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I think everyone is underpredicting Meet the Fockers. If you check MLK weekend last year, the star-driven comedies (and other "adult" films) like Something's Gotta Give only dipped by about 25%. A drop in the same range would give Fockers about $22M.
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Sun Jan 09, 2005 5:23 pm |
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Animosity Reigns
Indiana Jones IV
Joined: Tue Oct 19, 2004 8:41 pm Posts: 1777 Location: The Dirty South
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there also wasnt 4 new wide releases either that all appeal to different markets...urban, teens, kids, couples, seniors, housewifes...
last year there was just Along came Polly and Tourqe [-X
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Sun Jan 09, 2005 5:26 pm |
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Michael.
No Wire Tampons!
Joined: Sat Jan 08, 2005 12:27 am Posts: 23283
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Meet the Fockers is a teen targeted sequel. Somethings gotta give was directed at an audience that typically do not rush out to see a movie - hence its amazing legs.
I can see Fockers at around $20m, and Elektra around $24m with Coach Carter $19m and Racing Stripes at $16m
I think that Carter may put up Man on Fire resistance that beat 13 going on 30s opening by a whisker back in April; but i really hope not - Elektra deserves the top.
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Sun Jan 09, 2005 6:32 pm |
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MovieDude
Where will you be?
Joined: Tue Dec 21, 2004 4:50 am Posts: 11675
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Naturalflux7 wrote: Meet the Fockers is a teen targeted sequel. Somethings gotta give was directed at an audience that typically do not rush out to see a movie - hence its amazing legs.
I can see Fockers at around $20m, and Elektra around $24m with Coach Carter $19m and Racing Stripes at $16m
I think that Carter may put up Man on Fire resistance that beat 13 going on 30s opening by a whisker back in April; but i really hope not - Elektra deserves the top.
I think that the comparison between Carter and Elektra and MOF and 13 is a good one: I expect Elektra to make more Friday, but Carter to beat it over the weekend. Carter's WOM has been amazing and it's appeal to widespread demographics large, whereas Elektra is a movie whose appeal is limited almost exclusively to internet fanboys. Do the math.
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Sun Jan 09, 2005 6:50 pm |
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Flava'd vs The World
The Kramer
Joined: Sat Oct 23, 2004 11:36 am Posts: 25332 Location: Classified
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Coach Carter is also PG-13, will draw the sports fans, the urban crowds, Sam Jackson fans, and Ashanti fans. Jen is gonna miss out on her #1 again.
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Sun Jan 09, 2005 6:56 pm |
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Libs
Sbil
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 3:38 pm Posts: 48677 Location: Arlington, VA
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Naturalflux7 wrote: Meet the Fockers is a teen targeted sequel. Somethings gotta give was directed at an audience that typically do not rush out to see a movie - hence its amazing legs.
I can see Fockers at around $20m, and Elektra around $24m with Coach Carter $19m and Racing Stripes at $16m
I think that Carter may put up Man on Fire resistance that beat 13 going on 30s opening by a whisker back in April; but i really hope not - Elektra deserves the top.
I don't think Meet the Fockers is teen-targeted. The reason it's been making so much money is because it appeals to a wide age group.
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Sun Jan 09, 2005 6:57 pm |
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MovieDude
Where will you be?
Joined: Tue Dec 21, 2004 4:50 am Posts: 11675
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Not to mention Carter will easily win as far as reviews go. So far Elektra is getting seriously trashed, whereas Coach Carter has 3 out of 4 good reviews on RT so far, it go two thumbs up from Ebert and Roeper.
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Sun Jan 09, 2005 6:58 pm |
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misterglass
Iron Man
Joined: Sat Oct 23, 2004 12:56 pm Posts: 678
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I also think it will have a bigger drop if only because Universal will have to give up some of those theatres for In Good Company, but also because Meet the Fockers has been out for over three weeks now, doing decent business, and I figure it has to run out pretty soon. With four new movies and many expanding, there are going to be other choices next weekend and I think that it will have a similar drop as it did this past weekend (where there was only one new movie). I say Meet the Fockers does under 20 million next weekend..and I do think Elektra will beat it. Even if only the Jennifer Garner fans who liked her in Daredevil go see it, it should manage 20 million in that many theatres. I think it has much stronger chances than the Catwoman movie (which had bad WOM for months before it opened) and The PUnisher (which had no buzz whatsoever).
And MovieDude, you're putting way too much weight in reviews...look at how well White Noise did compared to its reviews (not to mention dozens of other movies in recent months). Elektra is pretty review-proof...fans of Garner and the character will go see it if they want to...if not, they'll go see something else.
_________________ misterglass/NYC
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Sun Jan 09, 2005 7:01 pm |
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sako
Indiana Jones IV
Joined: Sun Oct 17, 2004 6:07 pm Posts: 1684
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I think that Electra and Coach Carter will be very close to each other in the opening weekend.
Electra-21m
CoachCarter-19.5
racing Stripes-8.5
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Sun Jan 09, 2005 7:06 pm |
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MovieDude
Where will you be?
Joined: Tue Dec 21, 2004 4:50 am Posts: 11675
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shades033 wrote: And MovieDude, you're putting way too much weight in reviews...look at how well White Noise did compared to its reviews (not to mention dozens of other movies in recent months). Elektra is pretty review-proof...fans of Garner and the character will go see it if they want to...if not, they'll go see something else.
But it's not just that the movie is terrible. You say Garner fans will still see it. That's probably true, but how many are there really? Alias has not and never will catch on with the public no matter how many bells and whistles ABC pulls. Garner's only post Daredevil film (and to say Garner had nearly anything to do with that is ridiculous, most people didn't even know who she was) was 13 Going on 30, which was without a doubt a dissapointment financially, especially with Sony's fantastic marketing. Add in boring commercials, a third tier superhero no one has heard of, the terrible WOM from Daredevil, and the fact that it's appeal is essentially limited to just internet fanboys, and I think it's going to have to work hard to get past 20 million.
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Sun Jan 09, 2005 7:20 pm |
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misterglass
Iron Man
Joined: Sat Oct 23, 2004 12:56 pm Posts: 678
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13 Going on 30 didn't appeal to Garner's male fans from Alias....Elektra does...and then you add the comic book fans (the character is 20 years old, introduced in a very popular run on Daredevil by Frank Miller)....and the kids who have nothing else to see that weekend...and $20 million is easy.
Oh, and other people have heard of her from the Daredevil movie ($100 million is nothing to sneeze at and that's before DVD sales/rentals)....most people agree that Garner and her character was the best part of that movie. I'll say $22-23 million for Elektra opening weekend.
_________________ misterglass/NYC
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Sun Jan 09, 2005 7:42 pm |
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MGKC
---------
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 10:42 pm Posts: 11808 Location: Kansas City, Kansas
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1. Elektra - $20.3 (NEW)
2. Meet the Fockers - $20.0 (-30%)
3. Coach Carter - $16.1 (NEW)
4. Racing Stripes - $14.9 (NEW)
5. White Noise - $13.2 (-45%)
6. The Aviator - $5.7 (-25%)
7. Lemony Snicket - $3.4 (-54%)
8. Ocean's Twelve - $2.9 (-47%)
9. Fat Albert - $2.7 (-55%)
There are others higher than Fat Albert that I am missing (Spanglish, National Treasure).
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Sun Jan 09, 2005 7:50 pm |
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MovieDude
Where will you be?
Joined: Tue Dec 21, 2004 4:50 am Posts: 11675
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shades033 wrote: 13 Going on 30 didn't appeal to Garner's male fans from Alias....Elektra does...and then you add the comic book fans (the character is 20 years old, introduced in a very popular run on Daredevil by Frank Miller)....and the kids who have nothing else to see that weekend...and $20 million is easy.
Oh, and other people have heard of her from the Daredevil movie ($100 million is nothing to sneeze at and that's before DVD sales/rentals)....most people agree that Garner and her character was the best part of that movie. I'll say $22-23 million for Elektra opening weekend.
Since when was Alias a show that only had male appeal? I know way more girls then like it then guys. There are comic book fans and some people, but it's not the only thing to see that weekend. Meet the Fockers, White Noise, Coach Carter, Racing Stripes and In Good Company will all pass 10 million that weekend, and I think that at minimum 3 will pass 15 million, with maybe 2 over 20. I'm not saying Elektra will make nothing, I just think what your listing is why it will make 18, which isn't half bad for a movie that got dumped into January.
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Sun Jan 09, 2005 8:00 pm |
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El Maskado
Arrrrrrrrrrgggghhhhhhhhhh!
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 8:17 pm Posts: 21572
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Heck Pamela Anderson didnt draw any fans to her movie Barbwire so what are the chances of Elektra actually breaking past 20 million. I know you say both scenerios are different but they arent off too far since the comparison I used was a female star with a huge male following and in a movie based on a comic book.
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Sun Jan 09, 2005 8:14 pm |
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Michael.
No Wire Tampons!
Joined: Sat Jan 08, 2005 12:27 am Posts: 23283
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MovieDude wrote: Not to mention Carter will easily win as far as reviews go. So far Elektra is getting seriously trashed, whereas Coach Carter has 3 out of 4 good reviews on RT so far, it go two thumbs up from Ebert and Roeper.
Sorry what? I didnt see ANY reviews for ELEKTRA on Rottentomatoes.com.... Its baseless comments like this that not only show the persons underlying agenda but also add to the negativity of personal preference.
And i dont see Coach Carter doing as good numbers as Man On Fire, but i think it will probobly go the ways of Miracle +. The sports-drama market seems pretty solid; but Coach Carter hasn't had the buzz or ads of other sports films.
Futhermore the "internet fanboy" comment. I totally disagree, if anything its this audience that are effictively hurting Elektra's pre-release buzz with close minded comments about a film they haven't even seen. The general teenage movie going public seems far more motivated towards Elektra, and ive had alot of people in my film class talking about going to see it.
And also, ive Always found the box office community in general quite unaccepting of Jennifer Garner as a draw, so it totally dosent surprise me that theres so much opposition towards her on forums like this whenever her movies come out. Fact of the matter is that since her Daredevil days her profile has skyrocketed and - like it or not "13 Going on 30" recorded alot of on DVD rental ; with reports that alot of the buisness came from adult men. It seems that if it aint a pretentious, oscar winning actress, then it aint worth anyones time here...
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Sun Jan 09, 2005 8:24 pm |
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misterglass
Iron Man
Joined: Sat Oct 23, 2004 12:56 pm Posts: 678
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I think the post trying to compare Jennifer Garner (star of 2 $20 million+ openers) to Pamela Anderson...who isn't even considered an actress!...is the funniest thing I've read. Elektra doesn't half the negative advance buzz as Catwoman (or Barb Wire, for that matter) and I think that it actually looks okay. Totally agree with most of the post above though...I blame Ain't It Cool News in the generally jaded negative reaction to every superhero movie these days. I expect it to continue for Constantine, Sin City and Fantastic Four too.
_________________ misterglass/NYC
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Sun Jan 09, 2005 8:34 pm |
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El Maskado
Arrrrrrrrrrgggghhhhhhhhhh!
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 8:17 pm Posts: 21572
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Naturalflux7 wrote: Sorry what? I didnt see ANY reviews for ELEKTRA on Rottentomatoes.com.... Its baseless comments like this that not only show the persons underlying agenda but also add to the negativity of personal preference.
And i dont see Coach Carter doing as good numbers as Man On Fire, but i think it will probobly go the ways of Miracle +. The sports-drama market seems pretty solid; but Coach Carter hasn't had the buzz or ads of other sports films.
Futhermore the "internet fanboy" comment. I totally disagree, if anything its this audience that are effictively hurting Elektra's pre-release buzz with close minded comments about a film they haven't even seen. The general teenage movie going public seems far more motivated towards Elektra, and ive had alot of people in my film class talking about going to see it.
And also, ive Always found the box office community in general quite unaccepting of Jennifer Garner as a draw, so it totally dosent surprise me that theres so much opposition towards her on forums like this whenever her movies come out. Fact of the matter is that since her Daredevil days her profile has skyrocketed and - like it or not "13 Going on 30" recorded alot of on DVD rental ; with reports that alot of the buisness came from adult men. It seems that if it aint a pretentious, oscar winning actress, then it aint worth anyones time here...
What are you? Her freaking publicist? Dont slap me with some libel suit.
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Sun Jan 09, 2005 8:36 pm |
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Michael.
No Wire Tampons!
Joined: Sat Jan 08, 2005 12:27 am Posts: 23283
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shades033 wrote: I think the post trying to compare Jennifer Garner (star of 2 $20 million+ openers) to Pamela Anderson...who isn't even considered an actress!...is the funniest thing I've read. Elektra doesn't half the negative advance buzz as Catwoman (or Barb Wire, for that matter) and I think that it actually looks okay. Totally agree with most of the post above though...I blame Ain't It Cool News in the generally jaded negative reaction to every superhero movie these days. I expect it to continue for Constantine, Sin City and Fantastic Four too.
Yup, Its go with the flock syndrome IMO. People on movie sites assume way too much about the general public. Instead of attempting to provide insight into what the public is trying to think, and even researching it a little - they just slap their own opinion down and present it as a "This is what everyone thinks" , which is my pet hate.
That said, even though the filmbuff sector seems to be more hostile than any other towards this film - the reactions are still not THAT bad. To be honest, im quite suprised that there has been opposition to this film which seems to have been tailored slightly to acommodate us film geeks.
Last edited by Michael. on Sun Jan 09, 2005 8:43 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Sun Jan 09, 2005 8:40 pm |
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