I think that this comparison is pretty fitting. Just like Hitch, 50 First Dates' release date was the Valentine's Day weekend. Both are romantic comedies starring a huge box-office draw.

50 First Dates had Adam Sandler whose track record was great with Anger Management, The Waterboy and Bigy Daddy all opening to $39+ million and finishing north of $130 million. In 50 First Dates Sandler was paired with Drew Barrymore, for the first time again since The Wedding Singer. The movie did very well opening to around $40 million and finishing with a bit over $120 million.

Hitch stars Will Smith who is undoubtedly one of the biggest draws out there. He has repeatedly proven it with flicks like Bad Boys II and I, Robot which made $140+ million last summer. Hith is his first romcom effort, though, so nothing is certain there. Besides that, while his co-actress Eva Mendes sure is not an unknown face, she is also not as popular as Drew Barrymore which might give the movie a little disadvantage.

What will really help Hitch, though, is that it opens the weekend before the President's Day weekend and that its first Monday is Valentine's Day which pretty much gives the movie two 4-day weekends in a row, I think.

50 First Dates opened with $39,852,237 and finished with $120,908,074. It also got a huge theatre count of 3,591 which obviously helped it, however, I don't see Hitch getting a much smaller one, considering that its distributor Sony is well-known for giving its movies huge theatre counts.


Do you think Hitch can outgross it?


Personally, I think it is very possible due to the films release date before the President's Day weekend. I see an opening weekend of $35+ million and a total of $120-125 million, just above 50 FD's.

I'll track the two movies against each other in this thread once Hitch is released

The ideal comparison. And yes, I believe Hitch will win this battle. It's getting great crowd reactions.

Opening: $36 million ($42 million 4-day)
Total: $124.8 million

Hitch will crush 50 First Dates

Opening Wknd: 44.36m

4-Day: 50.94m

Domestic Total: 165m

:wink:

I agree.

Opening Weekend: $35.0 million (a bit lower, as it is Will Smith's first Rom-Com)/4-Day -- $48.5 million
Second Weekend: $28.5 (-20%)/4-Day -- $36.0 million

Fifty First Dates was a very well done romantic comedy with broad appeal and amazingly potent star power.

Hitch will also have to face the holdover buisness from The Wedding Date.

Friday: $11 million
Saturday: $15.4 million (+40%)
Sunday: $10 million (-35%)
Monday: $5.5 million (-45%)

3-Day: $36.4 million
4-Day: $41.9 million

That's a little more detailed. Apparently, Valentine's Day being on a Monday only helps the teen movies. In 2000, it only helped The Beach and Scream 3, and their drops were still 45%. Everything dropped like normal. So, Valentine's Day won't be a big deal this year for movies, if it follows the same pattern. We'll see.

That's interesting. I'll have to change my predictions then.

Then again, do you see any romcoms in the TOP 10 back in 2000? There weren't any. However, there was one romcom on the cahrt and that was the Down to You which actually dropped 25.18% on Monday :grin: I'd expect Hitch to drop no more than 35%.

Some Detail:

Friday: 12.46m

Saturday: 19.94m +60%

Sunday: 11.96m -40%

Monday: 6.58m -45%

:wink:

I really think it'll drop less than 40% on Monday.

I think that it will, but only by a little. 125m

It probably will. I didn't see Down to You. However, that movie was on a really smaller scale. Hitch will be pretty big, so I think it'll drop around 35% on Monday, in my opinion.

it should drop 35% on sunday and monday.

New Predictions:

Friday: $8.5 million
Saturday: $16.2 million (+90%)
Sunday: $10.55 million (-35%)
---
3-Day Weekend: $35.25 million

Monday: $7.38 million (-30%)
---
4-Day Weekend: $42.63 million

50 First Dates was well made. But Hitch's trailers have been MUCH funnier then 50FD's were. Personally I thought it looked alright, but not great from the ad. And competition from The Wedding Date? Yeah right. That'll be DOA. Boring, cliche premise, no big stars, there's NOTHING special about the movie, and little to no marketing. It'll be lucky to break 5 million opening weekend. Hitch should be huge though: About 45/155

What is The Wedding Date? Never heard of it.

Romcom with Debra Messing and Dermot Mulroney. It looks uninspired (and it looks like a ripoff of that Picture Perfect movie with Jennifer Aniston that came out seven or eight years ago), but I think Debra Messing is great, so I'll still try to see it.

I've seen absolutely no commercials or trailers for it. It probably won't be a big threat to Hitch.

Hitch should be #1 for 2 weeks i think, opening at around $38m, and ending up with about $150m.

No, Hitch will not beat out 50 First Dates. Hitch isn't going to be a movie loved by all. And Will Smith's main drawing power is action, not any comedy. ](*,)

I want Hitch to win, but im afraid 50FD will win

I hope 50FD wins. Hitch looks stupid to me.

I think that because of the mainly male perspective here that people are underestimating The Wedding Date as smidgen, sure i dont think it looks amazing, but it definately has its niche market, and although i see a smallish opening of around $12m, the holdovers will be very good permitting it gets decent reviews. It could be a surprise grower as Debra Messing is a much loved star.

Messing is a much loved star? Who is she? The Will and Grace lady?

Ya, she plays Grace in Will and Grace. :wink: