Why not start now?

I really don't think Ratatouille is going to affect how this is perceived.

The opening should be a general Pixar opening: $70 mil. There is no way it doesn't open with at least $60 mil, but I do think it will be tough to get anything above $75 mil, even with inflation.

Now, the legs. From what we've heard so far, it's going to be one of the most amazing animated films of all time. I do think a 4 multiplier is guaranteed, even if it's only a decent movie. Which would amount to a minimum of $280 mil. But if it's as good as we think it's going to be, then a 5 multiplier is definitely in play.

So, as my prediction stands now:

Opening Weekend: $75,200,000
Second Weekend: $52,600,000 (-30%)

Total: $391,040,000

Multiplier: 5.2

Take your time

prediction=not. a. lot.

What's the plot for this?

The assumption being that Ratatouille will somehow hurt Wall-E? Either way, I doubt there will be a runoff effect. It'll be a new year and a totally different movie. It'll gross $250-$300m. I'm too lazy to look at the competition during the surrounding weeks...

It'll be the most critically acclaimed Pixar movie... but also the least successful.

$50m/$160m

Why?

Because World War 3 will break out in the middle of its 3rd week.

because its so different and wont have the same mass appeal.

Some don't realize that Pixar is guaranteed to open above $60 mil. It's not even a question

That's my feeling. It's difficult to say without having seen any of it yet, but the plot description sounds a little bit too out there to catch on with mass audiences.

Right now, I'm getting the feeling that this will be an absolutely amazing film, but mainstream audiences won't latch onto it and it will severly underperform. I'm going to go out on a limb and guess $110 million total.

There's no talking animals. In fact there's not much talking at all. The Pixar name will help, but it won't get this to 250m.

$60/240 is guaranteed.

There is no question about it.

Since it's opening in the summer, a 4 multiplier is guaranteed.

If it's better than Nemo, then a 5 multiplier will be likely.

Ratatouille could easily fall under that mark. And Cars' OW was just 100K above 60M. Last year people even said that Cars would have reached 500M WW, just because it was a Pixar movie.

Cant wait to see how this turns out, it could really be something special.

Cars had the goodwill of 6 stellar films beforehand to bump up its OW gross. I remember saying at the time I didn't think it would come close to previous Pixar films because the subject matter (Cars) wasn't as universal as toys, fish, monsters and superheroes. I failed to take into account just how trusted the Pixar brand had become. But it still disappointed, both critically and at the box office (especially overseas).

I don't think it's done much to tarnish the Pixar brand, and Ratatouille looks like a return to form, so it should perform well. But I can't help but think Wall-E is another Cars waiting to happen - only on a larger scale. A post-apocalyptic world with silent robots? How many seven-year-old girls can you imagine begging their parents to take them to see that?

I still don't get how Cars disappointed people. Quality-wise it is easily one of Pixar's best (with the exception of The Incredibles and maybe Toy Story).

Cars disappointed because because it's a movie we've seen a hundred times beforehand, only this time it's CGI.

That is also true. Watching the trailer I remember thinking "that looks an awful lot like Doc Hollywood". Actually watching the film made me think the makers of Doc Hollywood should sue.

Pixar was always about taking a basic idea and adding their touch of originiality and imagination, they missed that boat with Cars.

I think a lot of the reason why Cars struck a chord with me lies in the fact that my town is a lot like the one in the movie. That just kind of made it appeal to me more and allowed me to overlook some of the unoriginality (although originality is not something I always require of films, as long as they're good).

Exactly. I'm sure there are films with similar themes to Toy Story, Monsters, Inc., and Finding Nemo. Hell, even films with similar plots. But Cars was so similar to Doc Hollywood in particular that it may as well have been labelled a remake.

Well Cars was a success - it had a 4.1 multiplier so WOM was definitely on the good side.

As for WALL-E - can we really tell until we see a trailer? Even if it is critically acclaimed - doesnt mean it will be huge at the box office. Look at the Iron Giant (I know its not Pixar but still).

I'd say at this stage the standard - $50-60m opening, $180-$220m finish.