OW: $140 mil

Final: $445 mil

No not really. All Temujin did was throw around a bunch of fancy words that you may have been impressed by. But the post lacked any real statistical analysis to prove his point.

Read it again. Try comprehending. He tore your argument apart. At this stage, you're basically saying if Spider-Man 3 breaks the record, it's guaranteed a 3.0 multiplier. But if it makes $134 million OW, is a 2.5 multiplier suddenly in play?

So, try reading it again. Toss those fancy words in a thesaurus if you have to.

Take your own advice buddy. Reading comprehension 101, maybe you were asleep during that class. First post I posted about this subject.

"Just something to think about. No opening weekend record breaker has had a multiplier under 3.0. I think that's very interesting to think about. History generally repeats itself time and time again and if Spiderman does open with 150 million I think there would be a better shot of it getting a 3.0 multiplier than something under a 2.5. As crazy as that may sound, I think it is something to think about.

I continued to repeat that history should not be ignored. Where exactly did I say it was a definite thing that was certain to happen? I merely stated a fact throughout history. My reasoning was attacked so I defended it. No where did I state it was a given. So take your own advice once in a while. Thanks. It's not my problem that you are impressed by a paragraph that could have come out of any introductory statistics textbook. Yeah he really "tore" my argument apart ..

Copycat.

$138 million 3-day
$165 million 4-day
$370 million Domestic Total
$975 million Worldwide Total

Ummm... I'm a stat major at Stanford. If you want me to elucidate your understanding with more than an "introductory paragraph" I'd be happy to, but I thought it might be a bit boring for the forums. . .

The higher the opening weekends are becoming, the harder it is to hit that 3X multiplier. It can still happen but less likely. I think Spidey's multiplier will be in the 2.6 to 2.7 range. Its final gross dependant on how big it opens, how good it is, and how strong comp Shrek/Pirates prove to be.

A stat major?! What the hell? Are you gonna build your life around spewing out random stats to everyone?

I agree with Speevy. History should not be ignored.

It should be when it's coincidence and not a rule.

The argument of past record breaking openers having something to do with Spider-Man 3's multiplier is ridiculous, and after some of the excellent posts that proved them wrong I don't see a reason to still argue the point. If there's any one place where "rules" - they're more like guidelines - are meant to be broken, it's the film box office.

Oh don't get me wrong I was not attacking your original post. I'm just saying that post was something that is taught in introductory statistics classes. It's not something that complex that you would need to go into a higher level of statistics to be introduced to. You are clearly knowledgable about the subject and most likely more knowlegable than me about the subject.

Either way all I did was present a possibility not a rule, my first post shows that. You can take from it what you want. History should never be ignored and should always be taken into consideration even if it isn't the determining factor.

I'm sure we could both run some hypothesis tests on the data, but the data would clearly violate the conditions necessary to run a T test in this case.

Disney is allowing 8:00PM showings on May 24th. So on Thursday Night there will be a 8:00PM and a 12:00AM showing of Pirates.

Is that money going to be counted towards Friday's gross or Thursday?

Brandon Gray will say it is Thursday's gross.

I will say it is Friday's gross.

OW (3-day): 129m ($30,800 average@4200 theaters)

Domestic TotaL: 366m (2.84 muLtipLier)

Overseas: 530m

WorLdwide: 896m

BJ has neglected his Pirates Thread must update.

um is Brandon Gray the official source of box office figures now? it's really retarted to separate previous nights viewing from day 1. Both numbers should be made available and both numbers should be looked at. Anyone who sees the movie on any time prior to the official release was going to see it on opening day anyways.

The effects were mind blowing in the trailer in the theater.


I though am worried about being to long, however if it has great action it could be alright. Pirates franchise is strong. The last one had legs that were better then Rots at the box office. I am comparing opening weeks here as they both had gigantic opening weeks, much larger then Spiderman 3 and Spiderman 2.

I see a 120 million opening weekend easily. If X3 can get a 100 million three day with a much smaller audience, this can gross higher. 150 million 4-day is a certain almost.

It'll open huge, but I think the fall of Spider-Man should be more foreboding than anything.

Spidey is out during school. When Pirates comes out school is gonna be out.

big weekdays, big big big weekdays...

I think it's a good thing that PotC is so long. There's a lot of storyline to wrap up. If they made it any shorter, they'd have people complaining that they didn't give an ending to some of the subplots.

Joy

Interesting change:

Last week (4-30) Pirates 3 was at 327M after 4 weeks of release on HSX. Now (5-8) Pirates 3 is at 359M after 4 weeks of release. A 32M jump in just a week This is the highest the film has been on HSX, the highest was 358M.

hype is building at school, there are a few stragglers left for spiderman 3, but the hype is switching to PIrates now.