Im happy if Transformers makes more than 200 million. Hell they are more reasonable than teh Simpsons will do 200 million at BOM
http://www.boxofficemojo.com/forums/vie ... ons#149117
http://www.boxofficemojo.com/forums/vie ... ons#456440

Now back to our rescheduled program..

I wouldnt be surprised if it did

It's funny that people say that POTC3 will be cut short by competition in the form of competiton when POTC2 was able to have only one 50% drop its ENTIRE run while dealing with the same amount of competition

Week 3: 59 million
Week 4: 48 million
Week 5: 72 million

Here is what the competition of AWE should do:

Week 3: 45-50 million
Week 4: 60-65 million
Week 5: 40-45 million

So I don't really see what the problem is. The movies in June are being highly overrated by most.

That I do agree. June looks extremely boring and thinking hard about it people may go back to either catching up or watching one of the big may flicks over the june flicks Fantastic Four that looks extremely boring looking compared to SM3 or dreading again about going to Blowceans 13

I think its biggest hurdle is not the new competition but rather Shrek 3 on its opening weekend and in the next two weekends. DMC didnt have that issue to deal with. It also had no $100m grossers released after it till Talledega. AWE has Fantastic Four and Ratatouillie - but lucky for it looks like Evan Almighty will fall flat.

Still all three should happily pass $360m which is great.

Yes - I think the studios dropped the ball on June really. They crowded the blockbusters in May, then late June/early July when they could have spread them out. But it seems like June has fallen out of favour with studios - unlike back in the early 90s when June was the prime month to release films - Batman (and co), Jurassic Park, The Lion King etc.

FF2 doesn't pose as much of a threat to AWE that some people think. Even if it does open to $60-70 Million, history has shown that massive openers generally don't effect holdovers unless a film is either a) in it's second weekend, or b) the opener hits the exact same demographs. I think AWE has enough wide appeal to not be effected by FF2 too badly, certainly not enough to have a 50% drop. I'm thinking around a 40-45% drop.

I do agree with you that Shrek 3 is the single biggest threat to it. However, I'm starting to think that both can coexist and not cannabolize each other. The Memorial Day weekend is the biggest weekend of the year and I believe there's plenty of breathing room for both Shrek 3 and AWE. After that, June is reletively open, and the onslaught of blockbusters doesn't really begin until Rat.

AWE has one advantage over those films: it has a much, much wider appeal. Unless WOM is horrible, I doubt the 4-day multiplier can get that low. I think a multiplier of at least 2.6 is definetely achievable.

Are you fucking kidding me?

Spidey has to deal with the EXACT same legs. It also has 2 films that are going to open OVER $100 mil in it's 2nd and 3rd weekend.

Spidey is screwed.

Fuck, I meant to put 2.4.

Oh my god.

You all are probably the least intelligent people I have ever spoken to.

Spidey3 is going to open to about $150 mil.

Shrek3 is going to open to about $110-120 mil.

Pirates3 is going to open to about $120-140 mil.

Spidey3 and Shrek3 are both going to drop over 55% on their 2nd weekend, while Pirates is going to drop under 55%.

I still don't think thats possible unless this gets AMAZING WOM and ALL the June films underpreform.

I could possibly see a 2.3 multiplier if it gets great WOM and the June films underpreform, but I doubt both of those happend.[/quote]

You do realize the difference between 2.3 and 2.4 is about 10 mil...

Well, I know the June 8th films will be underperforming drastically for you.

As I stated above, June is (at least in context with the rest of the summer) quite weak. The "blockbuster of the week" thing doesn't really get going until Rat gets released. I think that's enough time for it to make most of the cash it's gonna make.

I don't really have any thing to combat the WOM arguement, other than that it'll have hoepfully good WOM.

Um...no. I see a 150m+ 4-day. Difference is about 15m, which is a good amount.[/quote]

If you see a gross that high, then how high is Spidey gonna go that it's gonna "crush" Pirates?

You are an insane person

Pirates 2 dropped 54% last year in it's second weekend.

Mission Impossible 2, in 2000, had a 53% drop in it's second weekend, it opened on Memorial Day. It was the closest relation that I could get to Pirates.

And you said:



How "huge" will it's opening be if it only beats Pirates by $30 mil? Even if it opens to $180 mil, it will have WORSE legs than Pirates, which you have pegged at 2.3, Pirates would finish with $345, while Spidey, with a 2.2 would finish at $396. Obviously, Spidey WILL NOT open with $180 mil, more like $160 MAX, and with a 2.2 multiplier it would finish with $352 mil, a FAR cry from your $380 prediction.

Spidey already has 2 weeks under its belt when Shrek comes out. It can easily do $260m+ in those two weeks. So Spidey is fine.

Infact they are all fine. Alll will do well.

Just something to think about. No opening weekend record breaker has had a multiplier under 3.0. I think that's very interesting to think about. History generally repeats itself time and time again and if Spiderman does open with 150 million I think there would be a better shot of it getting a 3.0 multiplier than something under a 2.5. As crazy as that may sound, I think it is something to think about.

wow this films a month away!!!! i cannot believe just how much the studios dropped the ball! theres no awareness...im more confident than ever...THIS ISNT DOING 300 MILLION.

130 4 day/295 total.

What was it 300 million people saw the trailer online? No awareness my ass. Either way DMC didn't have a huge marketing campaign until the very end and that did quite well opening weekend.

-this doesnt have near the demand dmc had.
-300 million 300 shmillion. 1 trailers not nearly enough. ive heard a lot of spidey talk and enough shrek talk...but honestly i havent heard a word of pirates. i mentioned ot my bro and 2 of his buds and their reaction was ""already?" and this kid WORKS at a movie theater.

Right, but they didn't. I'm just saying we should take a look at history because history ALWAYS repeats itself. If I was a gambling person and SM3 did open to 150 million, I would rather put my money on a 450 million finish than a 375 million finish.

Anicdotal evidence is one of the worst kinds of evidence you could possibly present. A good amount of people I know are more interested in AWE than SM3 but I don't go trying to use that evidence because I know how stupid that is.

magnus just ass raped chipmunky like a $2 dollar hooker and didnt even tip her. I gotta agree with magnus on all points, though i see pirates finishing around 355m

chimpmonkey you got the weekends wrong..shreks in spideys 3rd weekend and pirates is in its fourth weeked, not 2nd n 3rd worddddddddddddddddddddddddddddd

Spidey3:

OW- $150 mil
2nd- $65 mil
3rd- $29 mil
4th- $13 mil
5th- $7 mil
6th- $4 mil
7th- $2.5 mil
8th- $2 mil

Total- $395 mil

Shrek3:

OW- $120 mil
2nd- $70 mil
3rd- $35 mil
4th- $20 mil
5th- $12 mil
6th- $7 mil
7th- $4 mil
8th- $2.5 mil
9th- $2 mil

Total- $425 mil

Pirates3:

OW- $140 mil
2nd- $70 mil
3rd- $35 mil
4th- $20 mil
5th- $12 mil
6th- $7 mil
7th- $4 mil
8th- $2.5 mil
9th- $2 mil

Total- $445 mil

Pirates wins, Spidey's legs are gonna be crushed by Shrek and Pirates, which CAN co-exist