Knocked Up won't take Pirates down, but it will likely take away potential repeat viewers.

Yes because teenagers, the heaviest demogrpahic for Pirates films, will all flock to go and see Knocked Up, a rated R film.

i dont know when the date pirates comes out and i follow movies. How do u expect the average fan to know when it comes out.

Because silly Jayhawk, they read the date on the trailer which came out with Dancing with the Stars which goes directly to its large female demographic, and then the trailer attached to Blades of Glory. Oh they can't read I guess because here in America everyone is illeterate.

PS- I am being sarcastic because I am happy today! Yeah for sarcasm

yes because all 15m people who saw that trailer a month ago remembers the date.

Yep

Actually, I think the number was 200-300 million.

who watch dancing with stars? If that's what u mean then u need to get ur head check.

I think the 200-300M was a global number.

Im talking about the number of people who saw the trailer when it debuted that night.

Silly debate between the Spiderman and Pirates of the Carrabean dweeds since one movie is oversaturating us like a Jehovah's Witness at your door even though you want one to go away and while the another practically has only one trailer out and expects the finishing shots to be done at may 25 12:00 midnight. They should learn from the Shrek movies that moderation is the way to go

I don't see how you can expect those films to add to that much. Hostel, otuside of it's second weekend (which was a 4-day weekend) had horrible legs, even for a horror film. I doubt it'll make anymore the Hills Have Eyes 2 did. Surf's Up looks good for maybe $20 Million, if that. It comes out on the heels of both Shrek 3 and Pirates, which will hurt it badly. As for Ocean's 13, it's predecessor made $39.1 Million and had very bad legs for a December Release. I don't see more then $30 Million for it.

Overall, that adds to about 60 mil, which is about as much as the film in POTC2's third weekend made. I don't think these are gonna have a substantial effect on P3 unless WOM is terrible.

Yup I really doubt Hostel 2 will even open to half of the first movies opening especially with the VT tech shooting and how they are saying sadistic films like those caused the shooter to behave that way and especially how the movies victims this time will be college aged girls

There's no such thing as bad publicity, my friend.

Tom Cruise

There is such a thing as bad publicity, my friend.

Well played...

I don't see how a sequal to a film that made only slightly more than Hill Have Eyes and had worse WOM can make $8 million more than Hill Have Eyes 2 with MUCH more competition.

I honestly see Ocean's 13 going anywhere from $20-$35 Million. Either it's going to break out by bringing in new fans, or it won't and O12 is going to remain fresh in peoples mind and that'll hurt the OW. I'm expecting the latter really, and I do expect this to be good, so I see somewhat leggy performance.

Surf's Up looks to be the first CGI film of '07 to underperform badly. Not just because of competition, but it's giving off a vibe that is not dissimalir to films like Ant Bully. Really, all it has going for it is being released in the summer.

128/380 for AWE. AWE is gonna get at least a 10 percent decrease WW and DOM.

I've argued plenty about the June 8th openers not hitting 75 million. Even if they do, I'm not convinced POTC 3 will fall 50%.

Poor WOM for the original film are the biggest poisen pills for a sequel. No chance in hell that O13 will have a higher OW gross than O11 and O12. Not after the debacle of O12. There's no logic behind the sequel outgrossing both of the previous installments. Don't tell me marketing either. Marketing has rarely ever been able to counter such poor WOM. Same with Hostel 2. Hostel was poorly recieved. Hostel performed well because it was in an empty season. In the summer months Hostel 2 will get lost in the shuffle. Don't expect anything even close to 17 million.

Surf's Up is the dark horse here. It could succeed but then again there are a million reasons why it won't. CGI overload plus Shrek 3 just came out a couple weeks ago. It could very well turn into 2007's Ant Bully.

Expect something more like:

10 + 20 + 15= 45 million

Wait wait wait...

People are saying Pirates is gonna get hurt the most?

Why?

What does Spidey have in it's 2nd and 3rd weekend?

What about Shrek in it's 2nd?

Now, compare that to Pirates...

Pirates wins! It has the LEAST amount of competition after it opens.

It will have Shrek 3's LEGS to deal with. That is a bigger problem to Pirates 3 than 90% of the stuff that's coming out this summer.

This is fun watching the Pirates and Spidey fans fight each other

Don't you mean 300m+?

Magnus Magnus - transformers will do well above $250m!!! You can put that in the bank

But I agree about Spidey and POTC3. Spidey has the edge release date wise. Shrek's legs will eat into Pirates a little there is no doubt.

As for Hostel and co - I still think they will have a significant impact even though I dont hold much faith in Hostel doing well. I see them as Oceans 13 ($29m), Surf's Up ($21m) and Hostel II ($12m) - which still sums up to a hefty $62m. It also seems that when three or more films targeting different demo's open, they hurt the holdovers more than one big monster hit opening does.