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The Pirates of the Caribbean:AWE|Prediction|Tracking Thread

Author	Message
Speevy Veteran Joined: Wed May 11, 2005 9:12 am Posts: 3139	Hitokiri Battousai wrote: Erendis wrote: Mesjarch wrote: POTC 3 will be easily above 250 milion after it's second weekend. I think that POTC 3 will act the same way POTC 2 did during its run. It can't, not with the May release date. Last year PotC 2 ran unfettered. This time they have the school year and the competition to deal with. I expect a completely different pattern. Lower frontloading due to Shrek and Spiderman, and a different legs pattern which I can't predict yet. Depending on the WOM, we could easily see a leveling off after 2-3 weekends, as school lets out. School year? On Memorial day? High schools in the northeast don't end until mid to late June
Sat Mar 24, 2007 1:41 pm

Jonathan Begging Naked Joined: Mon Oct 25, 2004 12:07 pm Posts: 14737 Location: The Present (Duh)	THere is no way Ocean's 13 makes over $30M opening weekend. The legs for the second film were crap (A 3.2 multiplier in December is like a 2.3 multiplier at any other time of year), and I don't think anybody wanted another sequel. 25/70 at best, and that's being optimistic. And Hostel wasn't exactly well-received either. It could open to $20M, but it would be lucky to have a 2.2 multiplier after that. And Surf's Up lands exactly in between Shrek the Third and Ratatioulle, so I'm not sure how well that'll do. Basically, Pirates really has 2 free weekends before FF4-2.
Sat Mar 24, 2007 1:49 pm

tina_als_girl Cream of the Crop Joined: Sun May 15, 2005 3:43 pm Posts: 2252 Location: Wellsville, MO	How is Memorial Day tied into the school year? All of our schools are already out for summer by the time Memorial Day comes around (unless we had TONS of snow days to catch up on)... Of course, I'm sure schools in various areas of the country have different types of schedules. I'm just interested to see how the weekdays are going to do compared to the weekends. Here in KC, AMC restructured our ticket prices (AGAIN) at the New Year... Now it's $6 for any seat at any showtime Monday through Thursday... So, the cheaper prices could mean better business on weekdays because of people wanting to save some dough. But then regular prices Friday through Sunday are now up to $9, instead of $8, as are the student prices. Of course, we've also got the $4 or $5 Before Noon thing going on, so that helps the earlier showtimes... So, yeah, it's going to be interesting to see how things do. I think 300 is an indicator, though, as to the fact that teens (in part thanks to MySpace) will be going to movies this year, school or not. Joy
Sat Mar 24, 2007 1:54 pm

zingy College Boy Z Joined: Mon Oct 11, 2004 8:40 pm Posts: 36662	tina_als_girl wrote: How is Memorial Day tied into the school year? All of our schools are already out for summer by the time Memorial Day comes around (unless we had TONS of snow days to catch up on)... Of course, I'm sure schools in various areas of the country have different types of schedules. In general, the south gets out of school on the day before Memorial Day weekend, I think, and the schools in the North are released around the second week of June (like mine). It varies with different areas, but overall, summer weekdays don't truly kick-in until the third week in June.
Sat Mar 24, 2007 1:59 pm

Speevy Veteran Joined: Wed May 11, 2005 9:12 am Posts: 3139	Zingaling wrote: tina_als_girl wrote: How is Memorial Day tied into the school year? All of our schools are already out for summer by the time Memorial Day comes around (unless we had TONS of snow days to catch up on)... Of course, I'm sure schools in various areas of the country have different types of schedules. In general, the south gets out of school on the day before Memorial Day weekend, I think, and the schools in the North are released around the second week of June (like mine). It varies with different areas, but overall, summer weekdays don't truly kick-in until the third week in June. Wow you're lucky. I don't graduate until June 20th....
Sat Mar 24, 2007 2:04 pm

tina_als_girl Cream of the Crop Joined: Sun May 15, 2005 3:43 pm Posts: 2252 Location: Wellsville, MO	WOW. I graduated May 19th.... It's too bad that some places let out earlier than others. Of course, it also depends on when they start, too, I guess... We start in late August, whereas I know other places don't start 'til after Labor Day. Joy
Sat Mar 24, 2007 3:47 pm

Erendis Indiana Jones IV Joined: Thu Oct 28, 2004 9:40 am Posts: 1527 Location: Emyn Arnen	Hitokiri Battousai wrote: School year? On Memorial day? Oops sorry, I didn't say that right. I didn't mean school on actual Memorial Day. I meant that US schools finish at different times. So with each weekend in June, more and kids will be on summer weekdays. I think the day-to-day drops and weekend drops will be lessened as more and more summer weekday come online, so to speak. Which is why said that PotC legs would level off by week 3-4 when all the schools are fully out. I think the only measureable difference the school year will make will be in the BO numbers for Days 4-6 or so. Last year, the frontload was so bad that the weekend crowd spilled over into the first week. This year, they'll have to wait until the second weekend. That is: Monster three-day opening weekend (I think the only damage Spidey and Shrek will do will be to steal theatres) Massive drop Tuesday Wednesday Thursday as kids go back to school and college kids start summer internships. Crowded second weekend (small drop). Another drop as kids go back to school again. Okay third weekend as WOM (if any) kicks in. a leveling off of weekday/weekend drops as movie gets old but schools let out. Long legs depending on WOM. _________________ I'm not around much anymore because I don't have time (or permission, probably) to surf the 'net from my new job.
Sun Mar 25, 2007 10:35 am

Nazgul9 Extraordinary Joined: Sat Oct 23, 2004 12:32 pm Posts: 11289 Location: Germany	$125m/$365m _________________
Wed Mar 28, 2007 9:06 am

BJ Killing With Kindness Joined: Mon Oct 11, 2004 8:57 pm Posts: 25035 Location: Anchorage,Alaska	Nazgul9 wrote: $125m/$365m to low. _________________ The Force Awakens
Wed Mar 28, 2007 2:06 pm

Jim Halpert Stanley Cup Joined: Sat Aug 26, 2006 1:52 pm Posts: 6981 Location: Hockey Town	after the trailer which kicked ass, i may have to up mine a little bit here 377m.
Wed Mar 28, 2007 5:00 pm

Biggestgeekever I heet the canadian! Joined: Mon Jan 23, 2006 12:58 am Posts: 5192 Location: The Great _______	OD: $50 Million Saturday: $39 Million -22.00% Sunday: $33 Million -15.38% Monday: $29 Million -12.12% 3-Day OW: $122 Million ($30,500 PTA from 4,000 theaters) 4-Day OW: $151 Million ($37,750 PTA from 4,000 theaters) Second Weekend: $54 Million -55.74% Third Weekend: $29 Million 46.30% Domestic Total: $385 Million International Total: $590 Million Worldwide Total: $975 Million
Wed Mar 28, 2007 8:02 pm

BJ Killing With Kindness Joined: Mon Oct 11, 2004 8:57 pm Posts: 25035 Location: Anchorage,Alaska	Biggestgeekever wrote: OD: $50 Million Saturday: $39 Million -22.00% Sunday: $33 Million -15.38% Monday: $29 Million -12.12% 3-Day OW: $122 Million ($30,500 PTA from 4,000 theaters) 4-Day OW: $151 Million ($37,750 PTA from 4,000 theaters) Second Weekend: $54 Million -55.74% Third Weekend: $29 Million 46.30% Domestic Total: $385 Million International Total: $590 Million Worldwide Total: $975 Million to low on all, the film will easily break 60m opening day fo sho. _________________ The Force Awakens
Wed Mar 28, 2007 9:04 pm

Biggestgeekever I heet the canadian! Joined: Mon Jan 23, 2006 12:58 am Posts: 5192 Location: The Great _______	BJ wrote: Biggestgeekever wrote: OD: $50 Million Saturday: $39 Million -22.00% Sunday: $33 Million -15.38% Monday: $29 Million -12.12% 3-Day OW: $122 Million ($30,500 PTA from 4,000 theaters) 4-Day OW: $151 Million ($37,750 PTA from 4,000 theaters) Second Weekend: $54 Million -55.74% Third Weekend: $29 Million 46.30% Domestic Total: $385 Million International Total: $590 Million Worldwide Total: $975 Million to low on all, the film will easily break 60m opening day fo sho. I was gonna go a little higher and have the domestic total be $400 Million, but then I saw something about you lowering your prediction to $450 Million and I just knew I couldn't have it that high.
Wed Mar 28, 2007 10:31 pm

BJ Killing With Kindness Joined: Mon Oct 11, 2004 8:57 pm Posts: 25035 Location: Anchorage,Alaska	Biggestgeekever wrote: BJ wrote: Biggestgeekever wrote: OD: $50 Million Saturday: $39 Million -22.00% Sunday: $33 Million -15.38% Monday: $29 Million -12.12% 3-Day OW: $122 Million ($30,500 PTA from 4,000 theaters) 4-Day OW: $151 Million ($37,750 PTA from 4,000 theaters) Second Weekend: $54 Million -55.74% Third Weekend: $29 Million 46.30% Domestic Total: $385 Million International Total: $590 Million Worldwide Total: $975 Million to low on all, the film will easily break 60m opening day fo sho. I was gonna go a little higher and have the domestic total be $400 Million, but then I saw something about you lowering your prediction to $450 Million and I just knew I couldn't have it that high. It was only a consideration. _________________ The Force Awakens
Wed Mar 28, 2007 11:10 pm

MovieDude Where will you be? Joined: Tue Dec 21, 2004 4:50 am Posts: 11675	132/165/405
Wed Mar 28, 2007 11:44 pm

choubachou Indiana Jones IV Joined: Thu Oct 21, 2004 1:13 pm Posts: 1796	Day1: 52.0 Day2: 42.0 (-19%) ($94M) Day3: 39.0 (-7%) ($133M) Day4: 34.0 (-11%) ($165M) Total: $393M Worldwide: $1,010.0M _________________ Best of 2014: 1- Apes 9.5/10 2- Noah 9.0/10 3- Lone Survivor 8.5/10 4- Captain America 8.0/10 5- 300: 8.0/10
Thu Mar 29, 2007 12:16 am

tina_als_girl Cream of the Crop Joined: Sun May 15, 2005 3:43 pm Posts: 2252 Location: Wellsville, MO	Just to help with predicts, here's an official Disney press release concerning just how many people saw the AWE trailer (over 350 million worldwide; and this is WITHOUT it in the theaters yet): http://johnnydepp-zone.com/boards/viewtopic.php?t=32695 (I don't have the original source link, but that site is legit with their news reports) Joy
Thu Mar 29, 2007 1:08 pm

Archangel Forum General Joined: Sat Oct 16, 2004 9:31 pm Posts: 9998 Location: Australia	That's great news, was wondering lately how much the Pirates and Spiderman trailers managed to pull in. I wonder though, does the 1st Transformers Trailer still hold the record for most views online or has that been broken again? With the Myspace thing, i'm expecting the final Transformers trailers to reset all online records. Though I doubt the studio will be pushing for a worldwide (online/tv) blanket like Pirates 3. Right now, i think i've got no doubts that Pirates 3 will be the biggest movie worldwide, the domestic and international crowns are up for grabs of course. Here's my top 5 for 2007.... Domestic: 1) Pirates 3 - $400m 2) Spiderman 3 - $380m 3) Shrek 3 - $370m 4) Harry Potter 5 - $270m 5) Transformers - $230m 6) His Dark Material - $210m International: 1) Harry Potter 5 - $610m 2) Pirates 3 - $600m 3) Spiderman 3 - $470m 4) Shrek 3 - $450m 5) Transformers - $330m 6) His Dark Materials - $320m Worldwide: 1) Pirates 3 - $1bn 2) Harry Potter 5 - $880m 3) Spiderman 3 - $850m 4) Shrek 3 - $820m 5) Transformers - $560m 6) His Dark Materials - $530m Yes, I'm expecting His Dark Materials to rule the holiday season, there's something about it which reminds me of Night At The Museum and Chronicles of Narnia. _________________ Im Archangel. Telin le thaed. Lasto beth nin, tolo dan nan galad. I surrender who I've been for who you are Nothing makes me stronger than your fragile heart If I had only felt how it feels to be yours I would have known what I've been living for all along What I've been living for
Mon Apr 09, 2007 1:24 am

BJ Killing With Kindness Joined: Mon Oct 11, 2004 8:57 pm Posts: 25035 Location: Anchorage,Alaska	"BUMP" _________________ The Force Awakens
Wed Apr 18, 2007 1:59 am

gotdane Iron Man Joined: Wed May 10, 2006 1:55 am Posts: 622 Location: AMC	The midnight at El Capitan is already sold out. _________________
Wed Apr 18, 2007 3:05 am

BJ Killing With Kindness Joined: Mon Oct 11, 2004 8:57 pm Posts: 25035 Location: Anchorage,Alaska	gotdane wrote: The midnight at El Capitan is already sold out. nice, pirates is already getting ready to put the beatdown on spidey. _________________ The Force Awakens
Wed Apr 18, 2007 12:08 pm

Excel Superfreak Joined: Sat Aug 20, 2005 12:54 am Posts: 22190 Location: Places	gotdane wrote: The midnight at El Capitan is already sold out. what a surprise. _________________ Ari Emmanuel wrote: I'd rather marry lindsay Lohan than represent Mel Gibson.
Wed Apr 18, 2007 12:45 pm

Flava'd vs The World The Kramer Joined: Sat Oct 23, 2004 11:36 am Posts: 25303 Location: Classified	Pirates has to beat SM3 by about 50 million to overtake it in total Franchise gross. I think it can do it! I'll go with $131M 3 day - $160M 4 day - $390M total.
Wed Apr 18, 2007 1:03 pm

BJ Killing With Kindness Joined: Mon Oct 11, 2004 8:57 pm Posts: 25035 Location: Anchorage,Alaska	Excel: Special Edition wrote: gotdane wrote: The midnight at El Capitan is already sold out. what a surprise. Really, are you going to cry when spidey is blasted into cannon fodder?? _________________ The Force Awakens Last edited by BJ on Wed Apr 18, 2007 2:51 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Wed Apr 18, 2007 2:49 pm

BJ Killing With Kindness Joined: Mon Oct 11, 2004 8:57 pm Posts: 25035 Location: Anchorage,Alaska	Magnus wrote: The closer this comes, the more I think it will be the lowest out of the May films. It just is in the worst possible situation: It's coming off of just decent WOM while SM and Shrek are coming off of great WOM, its the last May film, it's marketing is not as good as either Shrek or Spider-man, and its going to be 2hr 45min(I think many aren't going ot like it cause of its length). OW: 127m OW(4-day): 158m Total: 348m I think theres a good chance POTC3 will fall under 350m. Disney will regret releasing this on Memorial Day. They should have staked out a July spot much earlier when they had the chance. You're a bloody nutcase. _________________ The Force Awakens Last edited by BJ on Wed Apr 18, 2007 3:02 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Wed Apr 18, 2007 2:53 pm
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