well considering i have my reservations about spiderman, it may not be a good idea to wait till the very end. it'll be less than a month and the film will get diluted amongst all the big hitters coming out one after another.

Oh I think the marketing will have started a lot earlier, but the real marketing blitz could start somewhere around there.

Another reason it's taken so long is because of all the delays they've had in the production of the PotC sequels. There are apparently more visual effects shots in AWE than CotBP and DMC combined, so... yeah, it's taking them a while.

Joy

In the end it wont really matter that much. Theyve kicked off the marketing (up to 21 million viewers saw the trailer on tv) so in the end it will depend more on how much of an audience it will lose to (or gain from) Shrek and Spidey than whether the marketing started 6 months before or 2 months before.

The more I think of it the more I feel each of the big three will do just fine (350m+).

Spidey has the biggest first 2 weeks and then may take some heavy hits.
Shrek has a good opening weekend and may take a hit 2nd weekend but has the Memorial Day buffer before rebounding.
Pirates may take a hit opening weekend - but has minimal major competition for the next two weeks.

So they will all do well.

I can understand the tactic and everything, but on the other hand, if you're afraid to even markert a movie because it's too soon...then maybe you shouldn't release it too soon.

Can any of you experts give me some insight into how Spidey and Shrek will cut into PotC's theatre count? No matter how good or bad trailers are, there are a limited number of screens, and blockbuster Shrek and Spidey will be too new to give up their 3800+ (or whatever) theatres each.

That said, I think that PotC is wise in going last of the three contenders. PotC needs some space to stretch out its long womanly legs.

I'm thinking Spidey might be on 3500 when it opens

Shrek will be at 4300

Shrek will probably drop 100 or so...

Spidey will be at 3100 or so...

Pirates should still be able to get 3800+

no way.

Spider-man 3 will get the most screen of all the movies coming in may.

i say SM3 4300-4400 screens
Shrek 3 4100-4200 screens
potc 3 3600-3700 screens

i remember very well last year that MI3 took 4000+ screens
poseidon 3500 screens
dvc 3800
oth 3700

and when x3 came which i thouht would get 4000 screens becasue x2 got 3700 but it got less due to so many screens already taken by other movies that came before it in may.

Same will happen this year.

with basicly only 3 films being released I dont think there will be a screen problem at all.

umm only 3 movies??!!

what about 28 weeks later and other movies coming.

i don't know we will see.

3 major movies, nothing compared to May last year with 5 vying for theaters.

What big movies? Besides Shrek 3, POTC doesn't really have any competition at all. I think both of those movies could coexist in the same way Spiderman and ATOC did years ago. Here is what it has for competition

Week 2- Its got basically nothing to compete with.

Week 3- Hostel 2, Ocean's 13, Surf's Up
The reason for Hostels success was that it was released in a movie dead zone. Hostel didn't exactly have great WOM. Ocean's 13 is coming after Ocean's 12 which was poorly received. We all know what happens to even quality movies when coming off a poorly received predecessor. And Surf's Up- another penguin movie? Great

Week 4- Fantastic Four 2, I Could Never Be Your Woman, Nancy Drew
Only important one here is Fantastic Four 2. I think Fantastic Four has a lot going against it and is being hugely over predicted on these boards. 3 huge blockbusters just came out the month before. On top of that the first one wasn't exactly a huge WOM hit. It got a ok B+(?) from Cinemascore and a poor B- at Yahoo.

Week 5- Evan Almighty
Really a dead or alive movie. Could be a decent 125 million hit or a bust. Jim Carrey movies that have sequels without him don't do well. This will be the true test of Carrel's drawing power

Precisely.

Not distancing movies apart is known apparently in the industry as 'doing a Matrix Revolutions', and we all know how that turned out, not pretty. The whole marketing for that movie reads like a 'how not to market a movie' guide.

Well im currently ranking the May Three as:

Shrek - $381m
Spiderman - $373m
Pirates - $360m

Very similar and I think they are quite reasonable and most likely what we will see. Pirates will be hurt the most due to Shrek but will have the saving grace of 2 weeks of weaker competition after it.

No it's not. O13 is coming off of a poorly received O12. Ditto for Hostel 2. Surf's Up could be a big hit or it could be an Ant Bully.

I don't know where you're pulling these numbers from.

Ocean's 12 only opened up to 39 million and that was coming off a well liked Ocean's 11. No way Ocean's 13 hits anywhere near 35 million. I'd peg it more in the 20-25 million range.

Hostel 2 getting more than 25 million?! Right. Hostel opened up to 19 million. Hostel wasn't liked by any means and was only a success because it was opened in a movie dead zone. It will get gobbled up in the summer competition. 10-15 million for that.

Surf's Up. We just had a penguin CGI movie. They really want to release another one? Yeah that's going to pull an Ant Bully. It doesn't have a big name like Pixar to draw in the families. Anyway family friendly movies like POTC3 and Shrek 3 will still be out at that time. I'll give it 20 million but that is being generous for this movie. I wouldn't be surprised if it really pulled an Ant Bully and went under 15 millon.

Ocean's 13- With a summer release it's OW can only go up. 35M is like a 25M in winter. It's legs will crap and will just get over 100M with that OW.
Hostel-Who didn't like it?Critics? That doesn't matter, most I know who saw it liked it, and at worst got mixed WOM.
Surf's Up- Really up in the air at the momment. It could do very well, or flop pretty badly.

Yeah, that early June slot is quite deceptive.

It might look like a clear 2nd weekend for Pirates, but it will suffer a pretty harsh drop. It needs to recover straight away because there's no breather after that (it gets harder June progresses). Also, Shrek 3 might recover in its 3rd week.

It's all in the first 2 weeks fellas. I must be above $250m by the 2nd Sunday to have any shot at $400m.

Nevermind...

POTC 3 will be easily above 250 milion after it's second weekend. I think that POTC 3 will act the same way POTC 2 did during it's run.

It can't, not with the May release date. Last year PotC 2 ran unfettered. This time they have the school year and the competition to deal with. I expect a completely different pattern. Lower frontloading due to Shrek and Spiderman, and a different legs pattern which I can't predict yet. Depending on the WOM, we could easily see a leveling off after 2-3 weekends, as school lets out.

Shrek 3 will definitely be causing trouble to PotC3: both movies target kids and teenagers (as well as other people) and Shrek 2 was even more leggy than PotC2. There's no way its legs are as good as PotC2.

School year? On Memorial day?

O13- You forget how important WOM is to a sequel. O12 wasn't well recieved. There is no reason to think people will rush into theaters to see this one. If the WOM is good its legs might be good, but there is no way this one does anything close to 35 million opening weekend. Do remember who is marketing this movie too, WB. Sure they did well with 300, but as the old ancient Chinese proverb goes you throw enough shit at the wall, some will stic

Hostel- Few liked it. C+ at Yahoo. Only 61% gave the movie a positive grade according to Cinemascore.

Surf's Up- Completely agree with you about Surf's Up. I'm leaning more towards flop at the moment however.