I know. I just wanted BJ to know how crazy is prediction is.

We're coming up out of the ocean. A ship sails through the mist. There's a waterfall and we pull back to see that it pours into the void. A ship hangs off of the edge.

Tia Dalma's voice is heard: "Would you brave the weird, and haunted shores, at World's End, to fetch back wicked Jack and his precious Pearl?"

Elizabeth and Will; desert landscape - Jack enters shot! A creature scuttles up onto his shoulder. He has a little panic and tries to shake the creature off.

We see TiaDalma looking scared. Will turns around, sword at the ready. Elizabeth turns around to. Something explodes behind Jack!

Jack and another chap struggle trying to tip a boat.

Now we cut to Jack onboard a big ship. He says: Did no one come to save me just because they missed me? Cut to Jack the Monkey

Beckett is on a glorious great ship, saying "Things have changed". He goes on in another shot, this time in his office: "The East India trading Company now governs the seas."

Our first look at Davy Jones. Pirates are being rounded up and shackled.

The skull and crossbones flaps in the wind, aflame. A pirate ship has been set alight.

Beckett declares "The age of piracy is at an end!"

Swann calls out "Elizabeth!"

A long shot ships. Too many to count. Epic looking shot.

Jack, Sao Feng and Barbossa stand together amidst a huge group. Barbossa says "Theres not been a gathering like this in our lifetime". Thousands of pirates have grouped together, around an arena. In the middle are four little people - Jack seems to be amongst them.

JACK says "And I owe them all nothing"

See battles. The Kraken rips a ship apart. Will, Jack and Elizabeth stand together, swords drawn. That huge epic shot of ships again. This time, there's many more ships coming in the opposite direction - the mother of all battles between the East India Trading Company and the amassed pirates.

Davy and Jack have a duel in the rain.

Caption: WALT DISNEY PICTURES PRESENTS

Will makes to strangle Beckett.

Ships are sucked into a whirlpool in a thunderstorm.

Close up of Elizabeth and Will's hands. She pleads "Don't leave me".

Tia Dalma appears to be controlling the storm, using magic.

Davy Jones scurries up a mast, very quickly. Jack and Barbossa draw swords for battle. Jack says "I never thought I'd see the day"

Caption: FROM PRODUCER JERRY BRUCKHEIMER AND GORE VERBINSKI

A magical human shape appearing in the stormy skies. Cut to Will falling through a ruined deck.

Elizabeth is dressed in Eastern garb. A sword is thrown into the air. Davy Jones is mourning. Explosions in an Eastern street. Jack and Elizabeth get ready to leap somewhere.

Finally, the titlecard appears: PIRATES OF THE CARIBBEAN:AT WORLDS END

Cut to Norrington, saying "You're mad". Jack replies "Of course I am. This wouldnt work if I wasnt". he's getting ready to light a big cannon.

[Cut to black]

POTC3 will do 300m+ because of the fanbase. However, I don't think it will do above 350m because it really won't be able to branch out ot the public like POTC2 did with such heavy competiton and little hype so far.

It takes time to hype up a movie. It just doesn't magically happend in two months.

Austin Powers Goldmember didn't even had a trailer or a title at this point (it had one crappy teaser released, but then pulled). All the hype and marketing came in the final month and the movie did great. Hype and buzz don't take more then a couple weeks to build and nothing before that matters. Everyone will know that POTC 3 is coming out on the day of release. Hell, POTC 2 didn't really have much real-world or internet hype until the final 4 days before release. The movie sold everything out, but didn't start doing so until the hours before the showtimes. Some people will wait for 300 or Snakes on a Plane for months, but most of the audience just decides to see it at the end. This is one smart thing Lions Gate does. They don't waste money on early advertising and so tracking tends to underestimate their movies.

Honestly I think they could go with no advertising until the Monday before release and get the same numbers. Tracking would underestimate it, but that happens often anyway.

Endless hype built months in advance: Godzilla and Hulk
No hype until the very end: Goldmember

No way in hell it gets less then 350m.

142m/410m

Magnus you know little about marketing and how hype plays. Hype is something that comes and dies. It is just that simple. I comes quickly and dies quickly and is hard to maintain, I don't know why you can't see that. Plus people don't know when about films until right before it comes out. Hell I asked someone in math today and he thought Spiderman three was coming out next week, and this guy ain't no idiot. Spiderman is doing a horrible thing in over playing its advetisement, it is showing too much which will do one of few things, one it will make some average movie goers get sick of the film, two it will releave some of the shock value making it less spectacular because people will know too much, and last it will build too sterdy of expectations if they try to shock people, hurting its legs if the shock is done wrong, if their is a shock at all.

As for Shrek, its trailer just sucked, well it was ok, but compared to recent trailers it did suck.

Magnus is on the right track, they are attaching the Pirates trailer to a measly movie like MTR just to try to jack up MTR opening.But when you think a trailer so late and such a big event to have its trailer premiere to a movie that would barely open to 20 million is such a waste. Its like the opposite of SM3 bombardment campaign except at least SM3 had a better trailer. Im beginning to think Shrek 3 will win out against the overhyped capaign of SM3 and underadvertisement of POTC

The general public doesn't make plans about which movie to watch months in advance. A franchise as big as the POTC does not need the marketing blitz that an unknown movie like 300 did. At the end of the day, the public will go the movie that they think looks the best. Honestly there was rather little marketing for DMC until the very end. Sure there may have been a lot of interest on the internet, but the general public I'm sure didn't know the movie was coming out in July during March or April.

As I see it, Disney's lack of marketing for AWE is becuase of two reasons, firstly, to create distance between it and DMC which came out on DVD just 3 months ago. And second and most important, becuase quite frankly they don't need to. DMC has created alot of the hype and anticipation for AWE already thanks to the cliff hanger ending which isn't really much of one but whatever. A $400+mil movie is a better trailer for AWE (and let's face it, that's all DMC was) then any trailer Disney could come up from here on in.

All Disney need to do right now is tell people when it's opening, and bingo they're show up in droves. Out of the big three Disney was always in the best position from a marketing standpoint, as they had released a movie just a year ago which is still fresh in peoples minds.

That doesn't make sense. Why would they want to distance themselves from a 400 million grosser with good WOM?

To prevent hype fatigue. Not distance as in "disassociate" but to provide the audience with some breathing room in between installments.