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 The Pirates of the Caribbean:AWE|Prediction|Tracking Thread 
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Dont Mess with the Gez
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What is the chance this film actually gets moved?? It could happen..

Or else Im sure it will get a Superbowl trailer and then trailers with Ghostrider and Meet the Robinsons.

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Tue Jan 02, 2007 10:57 pm
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Killing With Kindness
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MadGez wrote:
What is the chance this film actually gets moved?? It could happen..

Or else Im sure it will get a Superbowl trailer and then trailers with Ghostrider and Meet the Robinsons.


No way this moves, disney knows this film will blast shrek 3 out of the water.

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Tue Jan 02, 2007 10:58 pm
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Post The latest on marketing push for it..
MadGez wrote:
What is the chance this film actually gets moved?? It could happen..

Or else Im sure it will get a Superbowl trailer and then trailers with Ghostrider and Meet the Robinsons.




While they may still have something for Superbowl, the surefire Superbowl ad will be WILD HOGS and they
are strongly leaning towards that on GHOST RIDER.

Buena Vista is very high on Wild Hogs being another PACIFIER sized hit.


Wed Jan 03, 2007 2:30 pm
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They just wrapped filming a week or two ago. Rumor has it they've got a 70-day reshoot scheduled, but not sure if that's true or not.

Some industry rumors are saying a teaser could be seen as early as mid-January.... That could mean it might debut with the family-oriented "Arthur & the Invisibles"...

I'm personally quite positive that the theatrical trailer will be with "Meet the Robinsons".

Joy


Wed Jan 03, 2007 3:44 pm
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Post Teaser fun
tina_als_girl wrote:
They just wrapped filming a week or two ago. Rumor has it they've got a 70-day reshoot scheduled, but not sure if that's true or not.

Some industry rumors are saying a teaser could be seen as early as mid-January.... That could mean it might debut with the family-oriented "Arthur & the Invisibles"...

I'm personally quite positive that the theatrical trailer will be with "Meet the Robinsons".

Joy




FYI..

Disney has totally ruled out any kind of theatrical trailer in January.

Bridge to Terabithia/Robinsons is their request for ARTHUR.


Wed Jan 03, 2007 4:09 pm
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I'm not too worried about the lack of trailers. They don't exactly have to raise awareness like, say, Eragon. RotK didn't produce a trailer until two months before it was in theatres and that didn't hurt it at all. All Pirates needs is a TV commercial or two with the release date and the fans will WOM the rest.

Woulda been nice to get all excited during the Superbowl, though... :sad:

btw, 70 days of reshoots is cutting it a little close to the release date, don't you think?

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Wed Jan 03, 2007 4:21 pm
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Dead Man's Chest pulled off its miracle with a 24-hour Youtube ad campaign. Don't worry, they know what they're doing. One ad and anyone that wants to see POTC3 will go see it, end of story.

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Wed Jan 03, 2007 4:57 pm
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Erendis wrote:
btw, 70 days of reshoots is cutting it a little close to the release date, don't you think?


Well, like I said, it's a rumor. I agree--it is definitely too close for such a long reshoot.

Here's a link for links to higher-def versions of the Movie Surfers segment on PotC:

http://disney.go.com/disneypictures/mov ... peak1.html

I only managed to get the Quicktime to work on IE and not Netscape. You'll have to fastforward through Terabithia and Robinsons to get to PotC...

Thanks for the info, nofabio. Damn.... I can't believe there's still no word on a teaser. I mean, even Harry Potter's got a teaser trailer and poster, and it doesn't come out 'til July!

Joy


Thu Jan 04, 2007 3:49 am
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Post Re the info...
tina_als_girl wrote:
Erendis wrote:
btw, 70 days of reshoots is cutting it a little close to the release date, don't you think?


Well, like I said, it's a rumor. I agree--it is definitely too close for such a long reshoot.

Here's a link for links to higher-def versions of the Movie Surfers segment on PotC:

http://disney.go.com/disneypictures/mov ... peak1.html

I only managed to get the Quicktime to work on IE and not Netscape. You'll have to fastforward through Terabithia and Robinsons to get to PotC...

Thanks for the info, nofabio. Damn.... I can't believe there's still no word on a teaser. I mean, even Harry Potter's got a teaser trailer and poster, and it doesn't come out 'til July!

Joy




Kind of surprising especially since the San Diego Comic Con footage they showed in July with a few tweaks would
have been fine at least for an initial teaser.

Though on the flipside you can generally argue that Wild Hogs, Meet the Robinsons, Primeval, The Inivisible, Ratatouille need
the trailer placements a lot more than Pirates 3 and that this keeps the general public from getting sick of Pirates of the Caribbean especially with the huge push for the DVD for DMC.

My guess is it will probably work out that Disney goes with Wild Hogs on Ghost Rider and PIRATES 3 on Wild Hogs and
instead of Pirates 3 goes with Ratatouile and Underdog on Meet the Robinsons though Underdog may debut with Bridge
to Terabithia first.


Thu Jan 04, 2007 4:21 pm
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tina_als_girl wrote:
Erendis wrote:
btw, 70 days of reshoots is cutting it a little close to the release date, don't you think?


Well, like I said, it's a rumor. I agree--it is definitely too close for such a long reshoot.


Wouldn't a 70 day reshoot pretty much constitute a complete reshoot? I mean, that's more than 3 months.


Thu Jan 04, 2007 4:32 pm
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The incorrect "70 days of reshoots" story is based on a misunderstood Wikipedia reference to this article.

Quote:
"We are actually not going back [to the Bahamas]," says Verbinski. "We have shooting that is going to be off the coast of California. A little bit of water, but a lot of stage work left."

Verbinski says they have "about 70 days" of work left on the film, which was partially completed during work on Dead Man's Chest."


This was reported in June and Gore was referring to the amount of shooting they had scheduled for the fall. They finished this in December.


Thu Jan 04, 2007 5:28 pm
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I'm just wondering why the studios haven't move one of those films to the holiday season. Maybe move Shrek 3 to early November or December 14th.

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Wed Feb 14, 2007 9:48 pm
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It's going to be fine. Wild Hogs is gonna be huge, Pirates will have it's trailer attached to that. If not, they can wait for Blades of Glory. I'd say it has a great shot at $375M. $400M is going to be tough without the summer weekdays.


Wed Feb 14, 2007 9:53 pm
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Magnus wrote:
This film is really starting to scare me. Disney is acting like WB did with SR. They think that the hype will come automatically. That strategy NEVER works. Now, normally I wouldn't say anything cause the studio can always go on an all-out blitz once the film comes close to release BUT...this scenario is different. Even with an all-out blitz campagin all through May, POTC3 will have a hard time creating massive buzz because of SM3 and Shrek 3, which are both already FAR AHEAD of POTC3 in terms of marketing.

At first I thought this movie really could do well but I think Disney is hurting its potential.

Updated prediction

OD: 42m
Sat: 41m
Sun: 38m
Mon: 30m
OW: 120m
OW(4-day): 150m
Total: 330m

Its IM and OW multiplier will be simliar to TDAT I think. The total is still great and Disne will be more than happy with it, but I think this does have 350m+ potential and Disney is limiting POTC3 from getting it.


:puke: the opening day prediction alone is laughable.

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Wed Feb 14, 2007 10:05 pm
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this isnt 2006 when this is the main draw. its becoming clear its between spidey and shrek for the summer title and not pirates.


Wed Feb 14, 2007 10:12 pm
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excel wrote:
this isnt 2006 when this is the main draw. its becoming clear its between spidey and shrek for the summer title and not pirates.


I have no doubt that when the smoke clears come July Pirates will be on top :biggrin:

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Wed Feb 14, 2007 10:19 pm
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Post Trailer Update
BJ wrote:
excel wrote:
this isnt 2006 when this is the main draw. its becoming clear its between spidey and shrek for the summer title and not pirates.


I have no doubt that when the smoke clears come July Pirates will be on top :biggrin:



Just as a heads up, the PIRATES OF THE CARIBBEAN: AT WORLD'S END theatrical trailer is officially set to debut with WILD HOGS as of today.

Could it change? Yet again? Yep.


Thu Feb 15, 2007 12:22 am
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I think Wild Hogs is there last major chance to get something out with a hit Disney movie. I think it will stick. Thanks.

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Thu Feb 15, 2007 12:29 am
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Post Re: Trailer Update
notfabio wrote:
BJ wrote:
excel wrote:
this isnt 2006 when this is the main draw. its becoming clear its between spidey and shrek for the summer title and not pirates.


I have no doubt that when the smoke clears come July Pirates will be on top :biggrin:



Just as a heads up, the PIRATES OF THE CARIBBEAN: AT WORLD'S END theatrical trailer is officially set to debut with WILD HOGS as of today.

Could it change? Yet again? Yep.


YAY!!!!!!!!

When does wild hogs come out, im there opening wknd :biggrin:

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Thu Feb 15, 2007 12:41 am
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Post TWO WEEKS FROM TODAY!
We can probably expect a trailer online. Wild Hogs (MAR 2nd) will already be huge. 2 Months of Pirate hype is PLENTY in this "we want it now" day and age.

Excited.


Thu Feb 15, 2007 12:51 am
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^I'd argue the complete opposite about originality. POTC3 is the MOST original sequel this summer...

SM3...comic book superhero movie.
S3...CGI movie that's satire of everyday (not very original) things.

Generally, all the other sequels are in the same categories. Tired sequels out for the buck.

POTC3 is a Pirate adventure movie. The popularity of this is being underestimated once again.

I still think it will be the highest grosser this summer.


Thu Feb 15, 2007 1:09 am
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Though Pirates 2 did dominate a rather weak summer last year. It had virtually no competition for the rest of the summer and even the film that opened the week before it wasnt all that strong.

Opening a week after Shrek and three weeks after Spidey will hurt it somewhat. Plus the fact that its coming out 10 months after the last one wont help it.

However it will still do well over $300m domestic so it will be Huge regardless - but wont surpass the last one.

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Thu Feb 15, 2007 1:15 am
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Magnus wrote:
I still think Disney has already screwed up. Hell, releasing it in May 2007 was the first step for them limiting POTC3 potential.

Fact is that as crazy as this sounds, POTC3 is the least original blockbuster coming this summer. It's not only a third one, but it's being released just 10 months after the 2nd one. At least films like SM3 had a three year break.


Bullshit. Shrek3 takes that prize easily, Shrek2 suffered most from being a near line for line replica of the first. Shrek is the most repetitive franchise ever, and the third installment will bring absolutely nothing new besides more stupid jokes. Spiderman 3 looks like the 2nd with a black spidey outfit and more big budget CGI. Pirates has succesfully made each film have a new feel each time, in short its the winning franchise.


Pirates rules all.

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Thu Feb 15, 2007 1:17 am
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BJ wrote:
Magnus wrote:
I still think Disney has already screwed up. Hell, releasing it in May 2007 was the first step for them limiting POTC3 potential.

Fact is that as crazy as this sounds, POTC3 is the least original blockbuster coming this summer. It's not only a third one, but it's being released just 10 months after the 2nd one. At least films like SM3 had a three year break.


Bullshit. Shrek3 takes that prize easily


QFT.


Thu Feb 15, 2007 1:18 am
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For the record - I predicted $90m for POTC and $280m for POTC2 so what do i know :lol:

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Thu Feb 15, 2007 1:19 am
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