First off: I really, realllly liked Star Wars: Attack of the Clones. I'll admit it, I'm a sucker for a lot of these movies. Phantom Menace wasn't great, but I thought Episode Two had some really damn cool moments, such as the Yoda Fight (even if it was completely out of character :wink: ). However, even though I'd say it's an A- to Phantom Menace's C+, it still made 130 million less at the box office (closer to 150 million adjusted for inflation). That's a huge amount guys. That's the entire run of The Polar Express or I, Robot. Many made the argument that it was because people wouldn't give it a shot after Episode I dissapointing, but if so, why did it open HIGHER then Phantom Menace, yet still do way worse? Now don't get me wrong, 300 million is nothing to cry about. It's a huge amount, and I'm sure everyone in the Lucas ranch was really pleased. I think it mainly just did so much worse because the movie was a lot darker then Phantom Menace, and didn't sell out to fart jokes just to make the little kids laugh. I'm happy as hell that they decided to do that for Episodes II and III, I really am. But the problem is, if Revenge of the Sith is really as dark as people have been saying it is (it's been rumored it'll get a PG-13 without a doubt, Episode II was already almost there), I think it's going to alienate the younger audience. Sure, they'll see it once, but they're not going to come back to a movie where the main character turns evil, kills almost all the other good guys, and his wife dies horribly. Just as Lemoney Snicket dissapointing and the diminishing returns for Harry Potter are proving, kids simply don't like dark and scary things. So sure, this will probably get the biggest opening yet for the Star Wars movies, as many will go to see the very last one, but I don't see how this can possibly make more then Return of the King, The Passion, Finding Nemo, or Spider-Man 2. Is there some huge hidden secret I simply don't know for why the movie will make so much, or is the movie just going to buck all the trends the box office has shown us? I'm guessing it'll make 100 million opening weekend (it's a three day, right?) but with so much competition, such as Madagascar and The Longest Yard the next weekend, I can't see it holding up well. I'm going with a final of 280 million, and this is from a kid who grew up loving Star Wars, and has even supported the prequels.

Sure, why not.

I agree with your take on 400.

But I do however think it will lurk past 300 and into the 330 range.

I think Harry Potter 4 will win the box office crown for next year, but have to wait and see the trailers till I make that projection official.

KJ

Well your theory has been mentioned time and time again, but I will ask: Alienate kids you ask because it's too Dark??? :? Are these the same kids, the same generation today that demand instant gratification off movies that have to be dark in order for them to succeed??? Kids in this day and age are densensitized to violence and too much is being made over nothing when it comes to the darker nature of this movie... AOTC Made just over 300 Million off Mixed Reviews alone so that in essence at least guarantees EPISODE III be the same way, give or take 30 or 40 Million over like 330-340 Million and that's seeing Darth Vader finally and a closer connection to EPISODE IV in branching one another together.. In short: This movie is going to make an absolute fortune Moviedude$$$$ and will probably be the Summer winner over all of them..

That all sounds well and good, but face it: Lemoney Snicket is underperforming because it's too dark. Harry Potter and the Prisoner of Azkaban was by far the best HP movie, and the critics loved it, but despite opening just as well and having the summer legs and no competition in the coming weeks, it made considerably less then the first two Harry Potters. There are some dark movies that make a lot, but the kids are what gave Episode I the legs it had. Less of them saw it again for Episode II. Honestly BKB, I think you're letting your personal bias and love for the series get in the way of your decision making skills. :wink:

Nope, SW:ROTS will be lucky to reach $300m!

Period.

No, I'm not letting any personal Bias get in the way of my judgement.. What I translate from this is that kids are so hung up on the new Batman right now because of it being Dark, Moody and depressing and having the cool factor going for it as a result compared to the last 2 failures, but the samething would also apply for EPISODE III and now your saying that kids won't see it upon repeat viewings cause of the Dark Nature of the content??? :? Look, they either want these films to be dark or they don't.. As fans, let's not keep jerking Lucas's chain over this since that's what the majority of the complaints were with the SW Prequels to begin with: The kids wanted films that catered to them as adults and not pandered to them as kids like EPISODE I did so what did Lucas do for AOTC?? Made it darker and less kid friendly... Fanboys wanted more action?? Lucas gave it to them... Bottom line is simple: If EPISODE III doesn't get the repeat viewing factor to propel it passed 300 Million because of it being too Dark?? Then the fans are a bunch of Goddamn hypocrites and can't make up their mind for shit and will never be pleased.. Kids are desensitized and none of this should matter since this is what they complain about the most.. :wink:

BUMP!

I want to see more predictions! :wink:

$400m a possibility or not?

Will it struggle to reach even $300m (I say yes)... ?

It'll make around $350 million.

I think it might. After all, the final chapter in trilogies almost always do better the second chapters.

The Matrix Reloaded and Revolutions? :wink:

I've thought of it too, but you know what: many fans are disappointed by the last installments of George (Episode I+II) and many of them will skip this one - I'm quite sure about it...

Well, ones with three year gaps that is.[/url]

ROTS will pass $400 mil.

Just remember folks, The last Back to the Future made alot less than its second sequel and same with the Matrix. It could happen with Star Wars

Possibly, but if that was the case for all movies, then Matrix Revolutions wouldn't have made over $100 million. The thing is that the Star Wars series has its hardcore fans, its sci-fi fans, and then just kids. There are a hell of a lot of kids watching the Star Wars movies, and I'm sure their not too picky about the details of the movie as long as they enjoy it.

Scream
Jurrasic Park
Terminator
Home Alone
Hannibal Lector
American Pie
Jaws
Die Hard
Beverly Hills Cop
Matrix
Crocodile Dundee
Exorcist
Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles
Rambo
The Godfather
Alien
The Naked Gun
Blade

Every single one has the third movie perform considerably worse then the second, and in many cases the first.

Also add

Back to the Future
Robocop
Karate Kid

Where's the proof???


I don't see any films listed there to back you up, do I?














:wink:





I dunno, I'm predicting a sub-$350m, so I'm certainly not the greatest optimist. I think we need to check out the competition more. I have no clue how the other May releases released prior and after SW3 will do. All of them combined could really take away a substantial part of the audience.

One thing is for sure: comparing 2005 with 1999, the other studios sure are not scared of the Star Wars name anymore (Spidey is the major reason; if a film going against SW can make $400m, that's saying a lot).

I think the fact that a lot of distributors are deciding to release their films in direct competition to SW3 says a lot in of itself; obviously they're expecting to make some money themselves.

Yeah, after Spider-Man destroyed Episode II, studios seem to realize Star Wars isn't this huge event they have to run away from.

I say this film is going to make over 400m because there is now way that the multiplyer for a star wars film is going to drop bellow a 3.0. That coupled with an opening day around 35m-40m and an opening wknd well over 100m 400m is a lock 8) alow me to post my prediction with an average drop of 40%

Star Wars Episode III - The Revenge of the Sith

Opening Day: 38.4m
2nd Day: 32.66m -15%
Opening Wknd: 107m - Fri: 32.66m -15% / Sat: 42.46m +30% / Sun: 31.84m -25%
4-Day-Opening: 145.36m
4-Day: 158.36m - Mon: 12.73m -60%
5-Day: 167.63m - Tue: 9.54m -25%
6-Day: 176.14m - Wed: 8.51m -10%
Opening Wk: 184.22m - Thur: 8.08m -5%
2nd Wknd: 62.22m - Fri: 16.16m +100% / Sat: 24.24m +50% / Sun: 21.62m -10%
4-Day-Wknd: 79.66m - Mon: 17.45m -20%
Wk-2: 97.66m - Wknd: 62.22m / 4-Day-Wknd: 79.66m | Total: 281.43m
Wk-3: 43.76m - Wknd: 30.17m | Total: 325.19m
Wk-4: 24.26m - Wknd: 17.84m | Total: 349.45m
Wk-5: 14.6m - Wknd: 10.04m | Total: 364.05m
Wk-6: 10.00m - Wknd: 6.51m | Total: 379.04m
Wk-7: 7.65m - Wknd: 4.98m | Total: 386.69m
Wk-8: 6.31m - Wknd: 3.52m | Total: 393.00m
Wk-9: 4.02m - Wknd: 2.57m | Total: 397.02m
Wk-10: 2.54m - Wknd: 1.62m | Total: 399.56m
Wk-11: 1.63m - Wknd: 1.01m | Total: 401.19m
Wk-12: 1.05m - Wknd: .64m | Total: 402.64m
Money made after Wk-12: 6m
Days to 100m: 3-Days - 113.52m
Days to 150m: 5-Days - 158.36m
Days to 200m: 9-Days - 200.38m
Days to 250m: 12-Days - 263.69m
Days to 300m: 17-Days - 301.79m
Days to 350m: 30-Days - 351.09m
Days to 400m: 73-Days - 400.24m
Domestic Total: 409m
International: 448m
WW: 860m

8)

thats around a 3.35 multiplyer. AOTCs had a 3.8 mutliplyer without Imax.

No star wars film has completely broken down after opening wknd and I dont expect the final film of the franchise to start. As long as this film is in over 3000 theaters an opening wknd over 100m is pretty much garanteed.

yeah right it made over 300m, 300m! Spiderman indeed made more than episode II but I think that was to be expected after spideys first two wknds roled around.

I'm not saying it's an event film, just that a lot has changed since 1999.

eeew, this wont make $400,000,000.

More like $280,000,000.

But it SHOULD RIGHTFULLY IMO make $20.

[size=24]YES, SOMEBODY WITH A BRAIN, TOTALLY MANSON[/size