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 The Pirates of the Caribbean:AWE|Prediction|Tracking Thread 
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loyalfromlondon
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I'm still finding this one difficult to predict. I'll say $125 million three day, $155 million four day, and $375 million total.

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Wed Aug 23, 2006 2:47 pm
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I'm thinking smaller opening, better legs.

About the same total gross? Maybe.

3-Day Opening- $112.3 mil
4-Day Opening- $144.6 mil

Total- $425.6 mil

3.8 Multiplier

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Wed Aug 23, 2006 3:00 pm
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Opening: $127
Final: $412


Wed Aug 23, 2006 3:51 pm
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juding by the pretty good legs this film had domestically and overseas i will say this is a lock for 300 million.

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Wed Aug 23, 2006 6:17 pm
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Commander Coo Coo Bananas
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Looks like "At Worlds End" is the title after all.
http://forums.keeptothecode.com//viewtopic.php?t=6934

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Random stuff:

1.
liesse00 wrote:
Looks like "At Worlds End" is the title after all.
http://forums.keeptothecode.com//viewtopic.php?t=6934

Makes sense; Tia Dalma mentioned that the gang would have to go to World's End.

2. Is is possible to gain fans between a second and third movie? Logically, one would think that most of the fanhood gain would be between Film 1 and Film 2, with a few stragglers coming in for Film 3. So BO sould level off after the second movie. At least, that's what I thought would happen for RotK. Oops.

3. Well, it's the end of August. Has Keith Richards done his thing, as promised?

4. I thought Pirates would follow the LotR curve, but Pirates is much steeper. LotR started at $312M and gained ~ 10% per movie. DMC gained about 33% on BP. On the same curve, AWE would have to make $545M, which I don't think is possible for any movie barring some Titanic-like shock. It certainly won't happen with all that competition.

For the moment, I'm going to stay with DMC -5%, or ~$390M, because of the competition. If anybody blinks and they all get weekends to themselves, I'll predict AWE at ~$430M.

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Thu Aug 31, 2006 1:32 pm
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Jerry Bruckheimer has said that Keith would shoot his scenes in September. They don't finish shooting AWE completely until end of November.


Thu Aug 31, 2006 2:43 pm
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190 4day

450-500 total

1.4 billion worldwide


Sat Sep 02, 2006 5:43 pm
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enrico wrote:
190 4day

450-500 total

1.4 billion worldwide


BJ likes :biggrin:

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Sat Sep 02, 2006 7:30 pm
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Opening: $130m ($156m 4-Day)
Total: $390m


Sat Sep 02, 2006 7:34 pm
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My New Prediction

Pirates of the Carribean: At Worlds End

Brian's Opening weekend Breakdown

Midnights - 17m (only 7m with 12:00am showings, with rush outs to 8:00pm showings, I think It'll Make 10m before Midnight)
OD: 50m
IMAX: 3m

Overall: 60m with 12:00am midnight showings

Friday: 60m (70 if BOM includs 8:00pm showings)
Saturday: 50m -16.6%
Sunday: 45.5m -9%
Monday: 36.4m -20%

Opening Weekend
Opening Day:60.0m
Saturday:50m -16.6%
Sunday:45.5m -9%
WEEKEND TOTAL:155.5m
Day 4:36.4m -20% 4 Day Memorial 201.9
Day 5:9.828m -73%
Day 6:8.645m -12%
Day 7:8.242m -4.7%
5 DAY TOTAL:211.728m
6 DAY TOTAL:220.373m
Opening Week:228.615m
Second Weekend
Friday:17.22m +109%
Saturday:24.977m +45%
Sunday:18.98m -24%
SECOND WEEKEND TOTAL:61.17m -60.7%

Day 11:6.07m -68%
Day 12:6.256m +3% 12 Days to 300m ([color=green]302.1m)
Day 13:5.63m -10%
Day 14:5.517m -2%
Second Week:84.643m -62.9%

14 DAY TOTAL:313.258m

Third Weekend
Friday:9.379m +70%
Saturday:14.256m +52%
Sunday:10.977m -23%
THIRD WEEKEND TOTAL:34.6m -43.4%

Day 18:4.5m -59%
Day 19:4.54m +1%
Day 20:3.93m -13.5%
Day 21:3.853m -2%

Fourth Weekend
Friday:5.856m +56%
Saturday:9.3m +59%
Sunday:7.915m -15%
FOURTH WEEKEND TOTAL:23.07m -37.3%

24 DAY TOTAL: 387.75m

Day 25:2.85m -64%
Day 26:2.9m +2%
Day 27:2.7m -7.0%
Day 28:2.838m +5%

Fith Weekend
Friday:4.189m +47% (29 days to 400m [403.227])
Saturday:6.28m +50%
Sunday:4.776m -24%
FITH WEEKEND TOTAL:15.245m -34.0%

TOTAL:446.3m
INTERNATIONAL:580m
WW :1.026billion

2.87 multiplier

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Last edited by DIB2 on Thu May 10, 2007 5:11 pm, edited 2 times in total.



Sat Sep 02, 2006 10:46 pm
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Insanity ensues.

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Sat Sep 02, 2006 10:52 pm
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Dr. Lecter wrote:
Insanity ensues.


:nutso:

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Sat Sep 02, 2006 10:59 pm
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Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End

Opening Day: 60.99m
2nd Day: 54.89m -10%
Opening Wknd: 165.97m - Fri: 60.99m / Sat: 54.89m -10% / Sun: 50.09m -8%
4-Day-Wknd: 206.03m - Mon: 40.06m -20%
5-Day: 218.84m - Tue: 12.81m -68%
6-Day: 229.73m - Wed: 10.89m -14%
Opening Wk: 240.68m - Thur: 10.95m +.5%
2nd Wknd: 80.00m -51.5% - Fri: 21.95m +100% / Sat: 36.25m +65% / Sun: 21.80m -40%
11-Day: 327.63m - Mon: 6.94m -68%
12-Day: 334.44m - Tue: 6.81m -2%
13-Day: 340.08m - Wed: 5.64m -16%
2nd Wk: 346.08m - Thur: 6.00m +5%
3rd Wknd: 40.00m -50% - Fri: 12.00m +100% / Sat: 16.95m +45% / Sun: 11.05m -34%
Wk-1: 240.68m - Wknd: 165.97m - 4-Day-Wknd: 206.03m | Total: 240.68m
Wk-2: 105.40m - Wknd: 80.00m | Total: 346.08m
Wk-3: 54.00m - Wknd: 40.00m | Total: 400.08m
Wk-4: 29.95m - Wknd: 21.45m | Total: 430.03m
Wk-5: 20.96m - Wknd: 14.29m | Total: 450.99m
Wk-6: 18.20m - Wknd: 10.64m | Total: 469.19m
Wk-7: 12.19m - Wknd: 8.01m | Total: 481.38m
Wk-8: 6.17m - Wknd: 4.00m | Total: 487.55m
Wk-9: 4.05m - Wknd: 2.60m | Total: 491.60m
Wk-10: 2.97m - Wknd: 2.00m | Total: 494.57m
Wk-11: 2.18m - Wknd: 1.40m | Total: 496.75m
Wk-12: 1.57m - Wknd: 1.00m | Total: 498.32m
Wk-13: 1.20m - Wknd: .80m | Total: 499.52m
Wk-14: .86m - Wknd: .65m | Total: 500.38m
Wk-15: 1.80m - Wknd: 1.20m - 4-Day-Wknd: 1.60m | Total: 502.18m
Wk-16: 1.00m - Wknd: .69m | Total: 503.18m
Wk-17: .85m - Wknd: .65m | Total: 504.03m
Wk-18: .59m - Wknd: .46m | Total: 504.62m
Wk-19: .38m - Wknd: .29m | Total: 505.00m
Wk-20: .26m - Wknd: .21m | Total: 505.26m
Wk-21: .20m - Wknd: .16m | Total: 505.46m
Money Made After Wk-20: ~.5m
Estimated Wks in theaters: 29
Days to 50m: 1-Days - 60.99m
Days to 100m: 2-Days - 115.88m
Days to 150m: 3-Days - 165.97m
Days to 200m: 4-Days - 206.03m
Days to 250m: 8-Days - 262.63m
Days to 300m: 10-Days - 320.68m
Days to 350m: 15-Days - 358.08m
Days to 400m: 21-Days - 400.08m
Days to 450m: 35-Days - 450.99m
Days to 500m: 94-Days - 500.17m
Domestic Total: 506m
International Total: 694m
World Wide Total: 1,200b

Multiplyer: 3.04

:smile:

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Last edited by BJ on Sun Sep 17, 2006 4:46 pm, edited 1 time in total.



Sun Sep 17, 2006 4:43 pm
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Dr. Lecter wrote:
Insanity ensues.


no doubt.

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Sun Sep 17, 2006 4:45 pm
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Magnus wrote:
Teaser I beleive comes out in 2 weeks with Santa clause 3(probably will be online the day before). Can't wait!


what a shite film to release the trailer with :disgust:

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Fri Oct 20, 2006 7:19 pm
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Commander Coo Coo Bananas
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It's Disney and big with the kids. It's perfect.

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Fri Oct 20, 2006 8:25 pm
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BJ wrote:
Magnus wrote:
Teaser I beleive comes out in 2 weeks with Santa clause 3(probably will be online the day before). Can't wait!


what a shite film to release the trailer with :disgust:


A movie that will be of same quality as Santa claus 3. So what is your problem?? I think disney is doing a bag up job releasing the teaser with an equally shitty movie santa claus 3.


Fri Oct 20, 2006 8:40 pm
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ashwani wrote:
BJ wrote:
Magnus wrote:
Teaser I beleive comes out in 2 weeks with Santa clause 3(probably will be online the day before). Can't wait!


what a shite film to release the trailer with :disgust:


A movie that will be of same quality as Santa claus 3. So what is your problem?? I think disney is doing a bag up job releasing the teaser with an equally shitty movie santa claus 3.


BS, Pirates rocks hard, Sant Clause 1,2 and soon to be 3 all suck and are in a world of craptacularness that a pirates film could never reach.

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Fri Oct 20, 2006 8:48 pm
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I personally like both franchises, but that's just me.

At least the PotC3 trailer will be with SC3 instead of *shudder* Eragon, as some PotCers have suggested.

Plus, SC3 comes out November 3, so that means we get the teaser sooner, so YAY!

Joy


Sat Oct 21, 2006 2:33 pm
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ashwani wrote:
BJ wrote:
Magnus wrote:
Teaser I beleive comes out in 2 weeks with Santa clause 3(probably will be online the day before). Can't wait!


what a shite film to release the trailer with :disgust:


A movie that will be of same quality as Santa claus 3. So what is your problem?? I think disney is doing a bag up job releasing the teaser with an equally shitty movie santa claus 3.


Still in denial huh?

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Sat Oct 21, 2006 6:06 pm
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Where the hell be the trailer :cry:

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Tue Jan 02, 2007 10:21 pm
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Should have been released with Night at the Museum, even if it's Fox. Stupid, stupid move. I can't imagine it being attached to anything else but maybe Ghost Rider.


Tue Jan 02, 2007 10:23 pm
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Zingaling wrote:
Should have been released with Night at the Museum, even if it's Fox. Stupid, stupid move. I can't imagine it being attached to anything else but maybe Ghost Rider.


Blasphemous, disney has lost there minds.

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Tue Jan 02, 2007 10:47 pm
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a clip, a clip!!!!!!!!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fU2a_2rdgsQ

:biggrin:

its nothing much but its a clip at least.

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