uhh changing mine a little lower. id go as low as 25 mil but people would call me crazy. ill settle for a 33/145 finish allowing for a pretty decent multiplier.

This is starting to look like a really dark movie, and I'm not sure kids will exactly want to see Jim Carrey, and his older audience that propelled Bruce Almighty to a 70 million opening might not want to see a family movie.

EDIT: I take ALL that back. I forgot the Grinch!

Opening: $39.4
Total: $150.0

Holy freaking crap!!!

BOM lists the budget of Lemony Snicket at $125 million!!!

What were they thinking spending that much on a movie like this? It will break even sometime, but still....

The international appeal will probably be quite strong. I believe the latest Lemony Snicket book is on the Top 10 fiction books lists currently.

They must have a lot of confidence in this movie if they are ready to dish out $125 million.

I expect the P&A budget to be in the range of $40-$50 million, so theoretically they need to make approximately $350 million domestically or around $450-$500 million worldwide. Factor in the DVD sales, and if the film makes $200 million domestically (a feat I expect it to make) and $150 million internationally, then it will be a success.

Yeah, I don't think there's much to worry about. It'll make back it's money eventually, and turn out a nice profit.

And open the door to probably two sequels.

$52M -> $210M

If it makes the $50M opening then $200M, possible $250M, will be easy. It has a better chance than Meet The Fockers to cross $200M, IMO. Dark family/comedy movies often do well this time of year, as long as everything turns out good in the end (I'm willing to bet Surviving Christmas would've done better had it this release date).

54mil opening/255mil

If Grinch had a $17,615avg at 3127 theaters, i think that Lemony Snicket can get at least a $16,500avg at 3200 theaters.
Bruce Almighty got a $19,510avg at 3483 theaters. That was purely do to Jim Carrey. So if you couple Jim Carrey with a super-successful book then i can definitely see at least a $16,500avg, maybe more.

Also, Grinch was rotten (53%), while Lemony Snicket so far has a 75% and i think that it will go higher. Grinch had over a 4.7mult, so i think that Lemony Snicket could at least match that.

Lemony Snicket's - A Series of Unfortunate Events

Opening Day: 11.68m
2nd Day: 17.52m +50%
Opening Wknd: 42.34m - Fri: 11.68m / Sat: 17.52m +50% / Sun: 13.14m -25%
4-Day: 49.57m - Mon: 7.23m -45%
5-Day: 58.25m - Tue: 8.68m +20%
6-Day: 65.63m - Wed: 7.38m -15%
Opening Wk: 74.46m - Thur: 8.83m +25%
2nd Wknd: 28.20m - Fri: 7.06m -20% / Sat: 8.13m +15% / Sun: 13.01m +61%
11-Day: 115.83m - Mon: 13.17m +2%
12-Day: 128.34m - Tue: 12.51m -5%
13-Day: 140.60m - Wed: 12.26m -2%
2nd Wk: 153.35m - Thur: 12.75m +4%
3rd Wknd: 36.20m - Fri: 10.84m -15% / Sat: 14.09m +30% / Sun: 11.27m -20%
18-Day: 193.70m - Mon: 3.95m -64%
19-Day: 196.27m - Tue: 2.57m -35%
20-Day: 198.20m - Wed: 1.93m -25%
3rd Wk: 200.09m - Thur: 1.89m -2%
4th Wknd: 23.77m - Fri: 4.91m +160% / Sat: 11.43m +130% / Sun: 7.43m -35%
25-Day: 225.35m - Mon: 1.49m -80%
26-Day: 226.88m - Tue: 1.53m +4%
27-Day: 228.18m - Wed: 1.30m -10%
4th Wk: 229.61m - Thur: 1.33m +3%
5th Wknd: 17.14m - Fri: 3.19m +140% / Sat: 7.97m +150% / Sun: 5.98m -25%
32-Day: 252.44m - Mon: 5.68m -5%
33-Day: 253.58m - Tue: 1.14m -80%
34-Day: 254.44m - Wed: .86m -25%
5th Wk: 255.36m - Thur: .92m +7%
6th Wknd: 10.70m - Fri: 2.12m +130% / Sat: 5.72m +170% / Sun: 2.86m -50%
39-Day: 267.06m - Mon: 1.00m -65%
40-Day: 267.86m - Tue: .80m -25%
41-Day: 268.54m - Wed: .68m -15%
6th Wk: 269.23m - Thur: .69m +2%
7th Wknd: 10.31m - Fri: 1.79m +160% / Sat: 5.01m +180% / Sun: 3.51m -30%
46-Day: 280.24m - Mon: .70m -80%
47-Day: 280.87m - Tue: .63m -10%
48-Day: 281.40m - Wed: .53m -15%
7th Wk: 281.95m - Thur: .55m +4%
8th Wknd: 7.25m - Fri: 1.16m +110% / Sat: 3.48m +200% / Sun: 2.61m -25%
53-Day: 289.98m - Mon: .78m -70%
54-Day: 290.37m - Tue: .39m -50%
55-Day: 290.75m - Wed: .38m -2%
8th Wk: 291.16m - Thur: .41m +8%
9th Wknd: 5.62m - Fri: .82m +100% / Sat: 2.46m +200% / Sun: 2.34m -5%
60-Day: 298.89m - Mon: 2.11m -9%
61-Day: 299.52m - Tue: .63m -70%
62-Day: 300.10m - Wed: ..58m -15%
9th Wk: 300.69m - Thur: .59m +2%
10th Wknd: 6.08m - Fri: 1.30m +130% / Sat: 2.73m +110% / Sun: 2.05m -25%
67-Day: 307.18m - Mon: .41m -80%
68-Day: 307.53m - Tue: .35m -15%
69-Day: 307.84m - Wed: .31m -10%
10th Wk: 308.20m - Thur: .36m +25%
11th Wknd: 4.41m - Fri: .79m +120% / Sat: 2.19m +160% / Sun: 1.53m -30%
74-Day: 312.99m - Mon: .38m -75%
75-Day: 313.31m - Tue: .32m -15%
76-Day: 313.60m - Wed: .29m -10%
11th Wk: 313.95m - Thur: .35m +20%
12th Wknd: 3.22m - Fri: .60m +80% / Sat: 1.50m +150% / Sun: 1.12m -25%
81-Day: 317.62m - Mon: .44m -60%
82-Day: 318.16m - Tue: .54m +20%
83-Day: 318.67m - Wed: .51m -5%
12th Wk: 319.22m - Thur: .55m +7%
13th Wknd: 3.42m - Fri: .88m +60% / Sat: 1.41m +60% / Sun: 1.13m -20%
88-Day: 322.87m - Mon: .23m -80%
89-Day: 323.07m - Tue: .20m -14%
90-Day: 323.27m - Wed: .20m -2%
13th Wk: 323.51m - Thur: .24m +20%
14th Wknd: 2.20m - Fri: .48m +100% / Sat: 1.01m +110% / Sun: 71m -30%
95-Day: 325.96m - Mon: .25m -65%
96-Day: 326.22m - Tue: .26m +4%
97-Day: 326.48m - Wed: .26m -3%
14th Wk: 326.75m - Thur: .27m +7%
15th Wknd: 1.89m - Fri: .41m +50% / Sat: .82m +100% / Sun: .66m -20%
102-Day: 328.81m - Mon: .17m -70%
103-Day: 329.02m - Tue: .21m +25%
104-Day: 329.19m - Wed: .17m -20%
15th Wk: 329.39m - Thur: .20m +20%
16th Wknd: 1.55m - Fri: .36m +80% / Sat: .72m +100% / Sun: .47m -35%
109-Day: 331.08m - Mon: .14m -70%
110-Day: 331.23m - Tue: .15m +10%
111-Day: 331.37m - Wed: .14m -5%
16th Wk: 331.55m - Thur: .18m +25%
17th Wknd: 1.28m - Fri: .29m +60% / Sat: .58m +100% / Sun: .41m -30%
116-Day: 332.95m - Mon: .12m -70%
117-Day: 333.07m - Tue: .12m +3%
118-Day: 333.18m - Wed: .11m -7%
17th Wk: 333.30m - Thur: .12m +9%
18th Wknd: 1.06m - Fri: .24m +100% / Sat: .48m +100% / Sun: .34m -29%
Money made after Wk-17: 5m
Days to 50m: 5-Days - 58.25m
Days to 100m: 10 Days - 102.66m
Days to 150m: 14-Days - 153.35m
Days to 200m: 21-Days - 200.09m
Days to 250m: 32-Days - 252.44m
Days to 300m: 62-Days - 300.10m
Domestic Total: 338m
International Total: 515m
World Wide Total: 853m

8)

Lemony Snicket's A Series of Unfortunate Events - 3,620

That's a great theater count!

i'd like that to happen, but its a bit too far fetched

yeah it does seem a bit high but I think as long as it opens over 40m it shoud breeze past 250m and have a shot at 300m 8)

FOTR opened near 50m and just passed 300m, i think if Lemony opens at 50m, it will be able to do 240, no more than that i think. As for 515m international, HP3 made about that much and is far more popular i think. I see something more like 200-280m int.

this is not FOTR but it is a kids/family film that is opening in the same wknd as FOTR, I think there is absolutly no way this film will not get obove 250m if it opens over 40m. It will fall less than 40% second wknd and I expect an increase in its third wknd why because Ive looked at many charts and there has been very few kids/family films to not increase and if they didnt increase they all fell less than 20%. I dont think this film will ever have a wknd drop over 45%. So as long as it opens over 40m even 300m is pretty close to a lock 8) S for the International prediction that was just a guess i made i had no facts to back up that prediction so I could increase or decrease that prediction at this point 8)

with my prediction the film has a 6.95 mutiplyer 8)

ok :wink:

Except for the LOTR films, there is no rush factor to see films the opening weekend in December. Check the all-time opening chart for December, and the PTA is mostly around $9000-11000. I predict $35M opening.

:? are you saying that an opening over 40m displays a rushing out to see the movie facter :?:

Opening: 29.4 million.
Closing: 176.4 million.

nice legs for the film :wink: but why a 30m opening it seems destined for a 40m+ opening 8)

What I mean in December, people can wait for holidays to see movies. That's why movies in December don't open big but have great legs. There will be people who will be with their families next week, and they can wait until then watch it. So it's hard to open with a high PTA in December, unless it's so highly anticipated as the LOTR trilogy.

I see :wink: I still think it will open over 40m though 8)

Well, Fellowship of the Ring opened with over $47 million, and I expect a similar opening for Lemony Snicket.

a fellow believer :wave: