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 Long-term BO prediction sub-forum? 
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The Thirteenth Floor
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Post Long-term BO prediction sub-forum?
What about a sub-forum for all predictions for movies still over a month or two from release? When they near release the threads could be moved in with the rest of the BO forum. This could help in a few ways.

1) More discussion and debate would be generated for these films. Usually these threads get quickly buried because they cannot compete with the many threads involving new releases. They can go for months without a reply even though I'm sure people would usually post in them every so often if they could only find/see them. Since many threads for upcoming blockbusters would be included in the sub-forum, I think people would tend to be in there often enough to generate a good amount of traffic, and the overall level of posts for these prediction threads would increase. Threads that would be forgotten on page 20 of the BO Bash would stay in the first 3 pages of the sub-forum.

2) It would eliminate many duplicate threads from films that have not had a post in months. While I wish people would check the thread archive, realistically this problem will probably always exist. Since a sub-forum would make these commonly duplicated threads easier to find, this probably would happen less often.

3) It would clear up the BO bash somewhat. It does get crowded and disorganized at times, and this might help with that without any of the negative sided effects that would come from being too restrictive.

4) It seems to be a logical dividing point in the sense that each forum represents a different type of predicting. Long-term predicting is quite different from Derby predicting. So, with seperate focuses for seperate forums could increase the usefulness for users much like the trailer section does for the Cinemania.

5) To add on to that it could encorage people to make more threads for movies that are still a while away from release. While some of these threads might not interest anyone, they will as usual die. Some of these extra threads might get a good amount of conversation though, making for a healthier forum.

6) On the other side of point #2, it would make it easier to find threads.

Thoughts?


Last edited by DP07 on Fri Dec 23, 2005 6:20 am, edited 2 times in total.



Thu Dec 22, 2005 3:11 am
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It'll make the section more clean, but on the other hand, it'll make BO Bash dead.

It's all about Kong, really.


Thu Dec 22, 2005 11:18 am
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Zingaling wrote:
It'll make the section more clean, but on the other hand, it'll make BO Bash dead.

It's all about Kong, really.


You really think it would hurt the BO Bash? Right now I count all of one thread on the front page that would fall into the category of the sub-forum (Madea's Family Reunion). That might partly be because of the holidays, but even in the other months most prediction threads are easily for movies near release. Besides, the weekly prediction thread, theater report thread, daily numbers threads, threater count thread, and others like those are the heart of the BOB, and really predictions for movies like MI3, The Da Vinci Code, and Pirates 2 are a minor part of the forum. Heh, "the BOB" I didn't think about it as I typed it, but I sort of like it.

Anyway, my greater concern is that a sub-forum would not get enough traffic. However, I think that since these threads usually don't get any posts for months at a time, so I think that it would increase posting in them rather then decrease it. I'll admit the main reason I like the idea is because I wish there were more discussion for films that a quite a bit away from release. Among the different areas of the BO, I've always been most interested in the legs after release. After that I like predicting films months before they open while predicting openers right before their release interests me the least.

Back to my point, for these threads, we usually have the same sort of pattern:
-A prediction thread is created months before release, and it quickly gets many replies.
-It falls down many pages and doesn't get any replies in months.
-Someone creates a duplicate thread that's locked or finally bumbs the old thread.
-It gets more replies before again being forgotten.
-The thread finally consistently gets replies in the final weeks before release.

Look at the Underworld 2 thread: http://www.worldofkj.com/forum/viewtopi ... 51&start=0
-27 replies in 3 days.
-1 reply in nearly 7 months
-8 in 2 days
-1 in 2 months
-3 in 2 days

Or Apocalypto: http://www.worldofkj.com/forum/viewtopi ... 85&start=0 and http://www.worldofkj.com/forum/viewtopic.php?t=15366
-36 replies in 5 days
-No replies in nearly 5 months
-Duplicate thread with 12 replies in less then half an hour which is then locked.
-Original tread is bumped, but the thread doesn't have the momentum the other developed, so it dies right away.

Clearly there is interest as people respond when they are bumped. However, they will always fall off the front page again because competition among threads in the BOB is too tough. Then everyone forgets about them even though they would post every so often if they only saw the threads. I think there would be more conversation for these movies in a separate sub-forum.

It's just like it was IMO for the trailers in the Cinemania a while back. The trailer threads were getting very few posts for the same reason. I think the situation is much improved since then. While the trailer forum might not be the most active, it has a good amount of traffic, certainly more then the trailers would otherwise get.


Thu Dec 22, 2005 10:24 pm
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This probably belongs in the site actually. I'm not sure why I didn't post it there in the first place.


Thu Dec 22, 2005 10:29 pm
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Anyone?

Whoever posts their thoughts on the matter rocks!! ;)

Whatever you think.


Fri Dec 23, 2005 6:17 am
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Your posts are longer and more in depth than Zingaling's, and you're views obviously contrast. So I'll agree with you. Go subforum.


Fri Dec 23, 2005 6:21 am
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kypade wrote:
Your posts are longer and more in depth than Zingaling's, and you're views obviously contrast. So I'll agree with you. Go subforum.


:lol: I've probably made stuff too complex as usual.

Oh, and you rock! ;)


Fri Dec 23, 2005 6:30 am
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I think it's a good idea for times like now, when Kong threads crowd the BO Bash. Same for the times when Harry Potter or ROTS were out. However, during slower periods, all BO Bash lives from are those long-term prediction threads.

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Fri Dec 23, 2005 11:08 am
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Dr. Lecter wrote:
I think it's a good idea for times like now, when Kong threads crowd the BO Bash. Same for the times when Harry Potter or ROTS were out. However, during slower periods, all BO Bash lives from are those long-term prediction threads.


So, you mean Sept.-October and more then anything Feb-April. I think Jan has enough holiday holdovers to support the forum. Maybe during the months leading up to the blockbusters, some selected films could be moved into the regular bash. Or, another idea might be to have the largest blockbusters moved there 3 months in advance, rather then 1 month, since those threads are at that point not at risk of getting lost in the BOB. Plus threads like "predict the summer top 10" could be in the regular forum.


Fri Dec 23, 2005 5:38 pm
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No, thank you.


Edit: The reason being that predictions for future releases are usually kept in balance by discussion of the current films. In the case of King Kong, one has eclipsed the other simply because it is a huge story; we've seen it happen before, we'll see it happen again. I think in general, we can keep above it, so that it's hard to lose sight of the forum entirely.

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Fri Dec 23, 2005 5:47 pm
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Hmmm. I think the answer is to control the mass influx of newer threads through polite moderation, not the segregation of future topics to new forums.

10 Kong threads and 15 Potter threads should not be encouraged either way.


Fri Dec 23, 2005 5:54 pm
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andaroo wrote:

10 Kong threads and 15 Potter threads should not be encouraged either way.


Wise words. If it was up to me, I'd have started locking all the Kong threads after the 5th or so.

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Fri Dec 23, 2005 6:45 pm
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Dr. Lecter wrote:
andaroo wrote:

10 Kong threads and 15 Potter threads should not be encouraged either way.


Wise words. If it was up to me, I'd have started locking all the Kong threads after the 5th or so.


I pretty much agree with all the people in the Kong mainia thread that said locking isn't the solution. I remember when they tried it at BOM, it killed activity in the forum, and became very unpopular. If each thread is not a duplicate and has its own niche, then I think it's healthier to have them. Unpopular Kong threads have died quickly never to be seen again, so they don't crowd up the front page.


Fri Dec 23, 2005 7:41 pm
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Box wrote:
No, thank you.


Edit: The reason being that predictions for future releases are usually kept in balance by discussion of the current films. In the case of King Kong, one has eclipsed the other simply because it is a huge story; we've seen it happen before, we'll see it happen again. I think in general, we can keep above it, so that it's hard to lose sight of the forum entirely.


andaroo wrote:
Hmmm. I think the answer is to control the mass influx of newer threads through polite moderation, not the segregation of future topics to new forums.

10 Kong threads and 15 Potter threads should not be encouraged either way.


That's not the real reason I support this idea though. With stuff like Kong and HP, it might be a bit of a help, but really at any time of the year long term threads get lost in the Bash, much as the trailer threads used to. It's really only a few blockbusters that are the exception. So, overall, I think this would mean more discussion for these threads.


Fri Dec 23, 2005 8:33 pm
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I think that this should exsist!

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Sat Dec 24, 2005 12:05 am
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