You are forgetting the original run of FotR. FotR was not the product of frontloading, it was the product of VERY FAST WOM. Yes there were some visible fans, but many many many fans had a wait-and-see attitude, myself included. Many more were waiting for the reviews. When stellar reviews came out, more fans were willing give it a try. And within 24 hours of opening day, WOM spread like wildfire and the floodgates opened. I first saw FotR on the Friday, two days after it was released, and the folks sitting next to me on all sides were on their second viewing already. Fans went nuts and dragged their friends. It wasn't due to the anticipation any more. It was pure WOM.

If WOM were not good, then "every LotR fan" would NOT have seen it.

(gotta run)

yup. one must remember that FOTR made only 46 million (which is huge for december and for a 3 hour flick) in its first weekend ... but no where close to what it should have made to reach even a 200 million total. if one looks at batman begins, it had an almost similar start as FOTR and it just reached 200, yet we still say that it had good legs because of the way it's numbers worked out.

People, you just dismiss the time of the year movies are released in. A $46 million opening in December is more than enough for a $200 million finish, really. See Meet the Fockers. You wanna say that Fockers had way better WoM than Batman Begins then? Certainly if Paul W. Anderson or Uwe Boll directed FOTR, it would be a different situation. But with every other average director, FOTR would have reached $200 million, even with just avergae WoM.

Batman was during summer break...

Summer releases get midweek boosts...

December releases get inflated weekends and inflated weekdays as well as less competition into January.

Both timeframes are about equally lucrative...

Well there is
The Producers(Which looks hillarious, will Farell the nazi is brilliant)
Fun with Dick and Jane(Jim Carrey at least 100 million but potential for much more)
Brokeback Mountain(this years a Beatiful Mind and real oscar contendor)
Munich(Speilberg not blockbuster)

Lots worth seeing.

Kong will dominate the season.
Narnia will have some christian support but the problem with Narnia and to some extent potter is that it is hard to get absorbed into the made up world because tehy are so clearly defined(potter blurs the two worlds enough that it is not the case). Narnia will do well 65 million dollar opening weekend decent legs but it is also a strong PG which may hurt repeat family viewings that type the film will rely on.

Kong has a history even though the remake was pure crap it was still number three that year by a nose number one was Rocky. Kong even had bad word of mouth and still managed to come in third.

1 Rocky (UA) Nov 76 $56.525 m
2 A Star is Born (WB) Dec 76 $37.100 m
3 King Kong (Para.) Dec 76 $36.915 m
4 Silver Streak (Fox) Dec 76 $30.018 m
5 All the President's Men (WB) Apr 76 $30.000 m

Kong is getting awesome early reviews but I expect the final will be lower then LoTR.

Only 1 movie this year has had a comparable Marketing push and buzz like King Kong this year and that is Sith. I am not saying 50 million OD though I would say it does 32 million opening day and a bigger weekend then RoTK. Just me though

Yes, but in a different way. Summer provides big openings, December provides legs.

Hahaha, not quite.

What I meant is I expect it to be the film that wil lead the oscars runs. I suspect it will get a lot from an oscar boost. Crazy prediction. The subject matter does hurt it though.

I will consider it a big hit if it makes one fourth of what A Beautiful Mind did. Even one fifth would be great.

Well I haven't posted here in a while, so I think it is only fitting to make a post about the possibilites for Kong.

Kong will pass 300 million. It looks excellent. Everyone I have talked to who watches TV (which basically means they have seen the Kong trailer) has said it looks excellent and wants to see it.

And whether some want to believe it or not, PJ has definite credibility with the general movie going audience.

This movie will open huge, and and a huge second weekend thanks to Christmas. 300 million easy.


Narnia will easily get over 200 million as well, but it won't get 300 million because it was released so close to Kong.

http://www.drudgereport.com/flash1kk.htm

XXXXX DRUDGE REPORT XXXXX TUE DEC 06, 2005 07:45:32 ET XXXXX

KING KONG TO CHALLENGE ALL-TIME BOXOFFICE CHAMP

'APE WITH A HEART MAKES GROWN MEN CRY'

$1,845,034,000 worldwide and $600,788,188 are the all-time boxoffice records for a single movie, TITANIC, first released on December 19, 1997.

Now roars along another December blockbuster, KING KONG, a film many top Hollywood executives predict will break the record!

The movie opens wide as Victoria Lake next Wednesday, but recent screenings by UNIVERSAL have left the audience cheering and sobbing.

"Grown men around me were crying," says one Hollywood insider.

"Yes, I think this will do TITANIC numbers. It is going to be a huge movie."

Complaints the Peter Jackson movie starts slow and is too long [more than 3 hours] will fill critics' columns.

"The human relationships are s**t ... the dialogue is piss poor and there is a scene of Jamie Bell shooting gigantic bugs off of Adrian Brody with a tommy gun ... those are the bad parts," says a Hollywood reporter. "But.... the scenes between Kong and Naomi Watts tug at the heart strings big time. And the final scene was just great! There were one too many longing looks between the ape and Watts ... but the audience around me ate it up."

Yeah, right.

I agree with him, and I've said before this movie is a good comparison to Titanic. Sure it doesn't have that young love story, but there is a strong enough love story present. I just went on a tangent about why I think it could make north of 500 million on BOM, but in short, I think it has a chance. Beating Titanic is almost out of the question though.

I don't given the the way movies are released now we'll ever see something like Titanic again, with peopel on tv talkign about their 14th viewing. Movies have such a short shelf life, even the ones which do really well. Titantic was in the theater for months.

I think Kong can do really well, but beat Titanic, that seems far fetched to me.

The film that beats Titantic will do so because movie tickets cost $25 per person in the US.

The longer movies are around the shorter a movies run is, things like Gone With the WInd played for years. With the technoclogy for home theaters being so good, I just don;t see a cult like Titanic following happening again.

Why see a movie 14 times in the theater, when it will be out on DVD in 6 months?

As for the comparison, the problem here is the love story is between an Ape and a women. Leonardo DiCaprio was a huge draw for the teenagers to see Titanic again and again, it made such a huge star..I don't see them goign ga-ga over Kong.

Im in now, too much hype surrounding it not to do 300m I think. Now that word is that it's a pretty damn good movie I think it wont have much trouble, it wont go on making 400m+, but it might finish around 320m or so. It's opening wont be incredibly huge, monster type big, but it's holds will be quite decent for the blockbuster that it is.

when's a good time to close this club? Before or after Narnia opens?

Next Wednesday.

That's when I'll decide for sure.

It's sad that people will have such high expectations apparently that if this one by any chance makes "only" $250 million, I am sure some will call it a disappointment.

After, though I think a better question is over $400m, because $300 million is clsoe enough tot LOTR totals to make not that much of a risk to say yes, whereas to say $400 requires more cohones

Well lets just say if Batman Begins got half the hype and marketing Kong got it would be over 300m............ okay maybe im pushing it, but it wouldve been around 250m. 250m I would say would be decent for the movie, but not really that great. Ofcourse it'll be a monster overseas no doubt, so you know it's not like they're going bankrupt or something.

Me! Me! Me!


I want to join! The film looks absolutely stunning!

If it makes anywhere north of 220 it's a success, I just think the ceiling is as high as 500.