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 Wednesday Numbers 
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College Boy Z

Joined: Mon Oct 11, 2004 8:40 pm
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Post Wednesday Numbers
1. National Treasure- $5,680,000 +61% $47,336,000
2. The Incredibles- $4,410,000 +98% $185,896,000
3. Alexander - $3,850,000 NEW $3,850,000
4. The SpongeBob SquarePants Movie- $3,700,000 +117% $38,961,000
5. The Polar Express- $3,500,000 +73% $58,505,000
6. Christmas with the Kranks- $3,400,000 NEW $3,400,000
7. Bridget Jones: The Edge of Reason- $1,150,000 +8% $24,573,000
8. Finding Neverland- $700,000 - $2,044,000
9. After the Sunset- $530,000 +3% $20,542,000
10. Ray- $480,000 +16% $60,430,000
11. The Grudge- $355,000 +3% $105,373,000
12. Saw- $300,000 -8% $51,241,000
13. Sideways- $290,000 +59% $6,664,000
14. Shall We Dance- $196,000 -26% $52,946,000
15. Seed of Chucky- $187,000 -17% $14,077,000
16. Kinsey- $150,000 +176% $1,083,000


Thu Nov 25, 2004 2:37 pm
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I'm Batman

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*Looks at numbers* Hmmm *Walks away from numbers*


Thu Nov 25, 2004 2:42 pm
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College Boy Z

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Nice increases for National Treasure, Spongebob, Incredibles, and Polar Express. Alexander and Kranks did okay.


Thu Nov 25, 2004 2:42 pm
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Alexander actually did terribly considering a $60 million campaign, a star cast and the high-profile of the project and the fact that it'll be frontloaded

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Thu Nov 25, 2004 2:44 pm
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will these #'s change predictions for Alexander

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Thu Nov 25, 2004 2:48 pm
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College Boy Z

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Coasterman2002 wrote:
will these #'s change predictions for Alexander


Even if it does, it's too late. All game deadlines were either this morning or last night.


Thu Nov 25, 2004 2:52 pm
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The Original
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Pretty weak for Alexander. :?
The next 200 Mio Investment that will underperform.
What 2 Reviews on AICN can do :shock:

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Thu Nov 25, 2004 2:55 pm
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FILMO wrote:
Pretty weak for Alexander. :?
The next 200 Mio Investment that will underperform.
What 2 Reviews on AICN can do :shock:


Funnily enough, Harry gave Alexander a very positive review at AICN.

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Thu Nov 25, 2004 2:56 pm
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Dr. Lecter wrote:
FILMO wrote:
Pretty weak for Alexander. :?
The next 200 Mio Investment that will underperform.
What 2 Reviews on AICN can do :shock:


Funnily enough, Harry gave Alexander a very positive review at AICN.



Did I get something wrong?
Werent there 2 early bad reviews and everybody was talking about them???
Actually it doesnt matter. Everyone visiting rottentomatoes will think twice if he goes to see that movie (or visiting IMDB)
I will check that movie. I really dont believe that it is that bad.

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Thu Nov 25, 2004 3:02 pm
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Cream of the Crop

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I think these are very good numbers.
If you look at 5-day multipliers from previous thanksgiving openers, you will see that both Alexander and Kranks are in pretty good positions...

2003
The Haunted Mansion - 7.74
Bad Santa - 9.33
The Missing - 8.02
Timeline - 6.21


2002
Treasure Planet - 7.03
Adam Sandler's 8 Crazy Nights - 5.17
Solaris - 7.74
They 6.80


2001
Spy Game - 7.93
Black Knight - 8.44
Out Cold - 5.39


2000
Unbreakable - 6.75
102 Dalmatians - 10.09

Even Timeline had a 6. 2 multiplier.
I think Alexander, with it's older audience who don't rush out first day, will do better than that.
But even using that multiplier, it gives Alexander 24 million for the weekend. Not great, but not a flop either.


Thu Nov 25, 2004 3:05 pm
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really good for NT, Incredibles, and Spongebob. Good for Polar Express too, still has a shot at $100M. Blah for the openers, but it's not surprising. The weekend is gonna be very close between the top 3.


Thu Nov 25, 2004 3:05 pm
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great!! 8) 8)
i was expecting a larger increase for Polar express!


Thu Nov 25, 2004 3:20 pm
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Bryan_smith wrote:
I think these are very good numbers.
If you look at 5-day multipliers from previous thanksgiving openers, you will see that both Alexander and Kranks are in pretty good positions...

2003
The Haunted Mansion - 7.74
Bad Santa - 9.33
The Missing - 8.02
Timeline - 6.21


2002
Treasure Planet - 7.03
Adam Sandler's 8 Crazy Nights - 5.17
Solaris - 7.74
They 6.80


2001
Spy Game - 7.93
Black Knight - 8.44
Out Cold - 5.39


2000
Unbreakable - 6.75
102 Dalmatians - 10.09

Even Timeline had a 6. 2 multiplier.
I think Alexander, with it's older audience who don't rush out first day, will do better than that.
But even using that multiplier, it gives Alexander 24 million for the weekend. Not great, but not a flop either.



Good points made. ;)

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Thu Nov 25, 2004 3:23 pm
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Cream of the Crop

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Using the average 5-day multiplier of openers over the past 4 years, of 7.55, here is what the weekend would look like...

National Treasure -- 43 million
The Incredibles -- 33 million
Alexander -- 29.4 million
Spongebob -- 27.9 million
Polar Express -- 26.4 million
Christmas with the Kranks -- 25.9 million
Bridget Jones -- 9.06 million
Finding Neverland -- 5.28 million
After the Sunset -- 3.77 million
Ray -- 3.77 million

That's a 5-day top ten total of 207.6 million. Pretty good.


Thu Nov 25, 2004 3:28 pm
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I say the openers can still go either way. Could be Polar Express like numbers, which will land them in the $20 million range. Or, Shrek 2-like (stress on the LIKE) numbers, and go around $30 or even $40 million.

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Thu Nov 25, 2004 3:35 pm
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kranks will beat out Alexander over the weekend.

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Thu Nov 25, 2004 4:12 pm
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Very good for National treasure and The Incredibles.

Alexander will be a huge flop in the U.S.


Thu Nov 25, 2004 4:16 pm
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neo_wolf wrote:
Alexander will be a huge flop in the U.S.


But it should do rather well overseas.

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Thu Nov 25, 2004 6:25 pm
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Why are people calling Alexander a failure. It had a 3 hr. running time, which limits to 3 show time a day (compared to Kranks, which had 5), and with a 2445 screen release, I think it did fine. I agree that it will have a big multiplier, which will lead to a 23 million dollar three day gross.

Here are my projections (3-day).

National Treasure - 29 million.
Incredibles - 26 million.
Alexander - 23 million.
Christmas with the Kranks - 20 million.
Polar Express - 19 million.
Spongebob - 19 million.
Bridget Jones - 7 million.
Finding Neverland - 4 million.
After the Sunset - 3 million.
Ray - 3 million.

Estimated total - 153 million.

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Thu Nov 25, 2004 6:36 pm
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Nice Numbers!!!


Thu Nov 25, 2004 6:43 pm
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poor poor Kranks..just like I thought *shrug* RIP...I saw this coming a mile away...yes yes 3.4 is nothing to sneeze at but the fact that every other kids movie in the market atm beat it is a very bad sign for Sony

It will do good on video probably...

Alexander is doing a tad better than I thought Im still hoping the main people that wanted to see it will rush out and see it/saw it yesterday and today...


Thu Nov 25, 2004 7:35 pm
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That seems good for Spongebob if it gets a 7 multiplier, but I think that really only works for openers.


Thu Nov 25, 2004 7:43 pm
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Not very impressive for the openers. Not terrible either though. I still think with the Thanksgiving weekend that Christmas with the Kranks will do fairly well.

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Thu Nov 25, 2004 11:55 pm
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I can't belive people are actually saying how terrible Alexander did!!!

I mean, come on.... all of you, everyone was really expecting this one to bomb... even I, who wouldn't give up on the movie, really saw it bombing. While it's still going to bomb, it did considerably well!!!

$3.8 million Wednesday
It could probably go up to $4.5 million Thursday
Then maybe $5 million Friday, $5.5 million Saturday, $4 million Sunday

that is a five day total of around $22.8 million, which actually goes against precedent. According to previous years, even bad and bombing movies had multipliers of at least 6 and around 7 for the norm, whichw ould mean a $25+ million 5-day gross.

Considering all the bad press this film recieved
also, no one seems to take in to account this is a 3 hour movie!!!

I think it did pretty well. It should end up with Gangs of New York type numbers!

I'm really tired from Thanksgiving now so I'll talk about the other grosses with new numbers probably 2mor0....

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Fri Nov 26, 2004 4:15 am
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Plus, the budget is $150,000,000, not $200,000,000.


IMDb...


Fri Nov 26, 2004 4:20 am
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