Frozen 1 and Moana 2 had the same Monday drops (83.5% and 84%). Clearly driven by families.

Frozen 1 pulled -53.1% weekend 2 so if Moana did that, could still pull a weekend of $65.6M. May mostly be a weekend vs midweek driven film.

Yes, but clearly Wicked dailies will overtake it at some point, its matter of when.

Yeah definitely, I'm going to guess by Tuesday's #!

Domestically: Wicked is 2.3x bigger than Gladiator (268.8 to 113.5)

Internationally: Gladiator is 2.1x bigger than Wicked (208.8 to 97.1)

Gladiator is bigger than Wicked in OS markets but it also released a week before domestic. Plus released in most markets while Wicked still has many big markets left.

Still Gladiator will probably finish close to 300m OS. Wicked is not getting there barring Japan blowing up big and that is not something one should expect.

Gladiator did indeed have a head start on Wicked in terms of overseas box office. According to the numbers, box office reports from China, France, Germany, and Japan haven't arrived yet https://www.the-numbers.com/movie/Wicked-(2024)#tab=international. However the international box office of The Little Mermaid from the following countries are:
China $3.7 million
France $14.2 million
Germany $13.6 million
and Japan $23.9 million.

The Little Mermaid grossed $55.4 million from these 4 countries. I doubt Wicked will increase $100 million from its current $97.1 million in overseas box office. So Wicked will fall short of $200 million in overseas box office.

Tuesday:

1. MOANA 2 ($8M)
2. WICKED ($7M)
3. GLADIATOR II ($3M)
4. RED ONE ($1M)

It may not be breaking records but Gladiator II is quietly up to $117M after 12 days. Likely will make it up the ranks on the never #1 list.

UK alone its doing blockbuster numbers and can do as much as 40m more from there. OS markets are too complex to be looked at isolation. You have go deep into where its running, how its WOM is and normal legs during this time. I am sure its doing 200m+ OS. In fact it will hit 250m with average run in most markets. Dont forget we have winter holidays coming up in northern hemisphere which helps with legs.

Here in Oz the prime movie going period is between Dec 26th and Jan 26th - Christmas and summer holidays.

Wicked has made $20m AUD since it's OW. I can see it making a further $25-30m AUD from here on. So, another $16-20m USD is likely.

Moana 2 is down over 92% from its opening Wednesday. In comparison Good Dino was down 91%, Frozen 2 88%, and Wish just under 93%.

Still looking at a 60-62% drop to just over 50m

I'd say pretty good chance at this point Wicked ends up with higher total.

Wicked is definitely the movie breaking into the zeitgeist where as Moana 2 is just falling in line with being the family movie of the winter season albeit with a massive opening

I feel fairly positive that Moana is not even grossing 500m at this point, let alone 600m. WOM stinks.