Universal has denied a question when asked about Barbenheimer Controversy - "We aren't aware of any Barbenheimer Controversy" I believe Universal has no plans for Japan.

Talking about current situation, petition is going on from #Nobarbenheimer at Change. You can read all the points. Barbie probably will be doing very bad in Japan if they can't take control of the situation which started from @sangobouro

Found a video that shows the Elemental ads were real.

https://youtube.com/watch?v=yiN2qCZXpGs

Barbie

Stage Greetings and Premiere went successfully today. Came to know that Greg loves Japanese Films. Mitsuki Takahata (VC of Margot Robbie) who earlier decided to back off because of #NoBarbenheimer, change her decision because she was attached with Barbie and obliged to fulfill her duties, along with Director and Producer visiting, she doesn't want to isolate them. Everything was Positive. Though, everyone avoided talking about yesterday outrage. But, according to Vogue Japan, Director did answer one of the question regarding #Nobarbenheimer -

「ワーナー・ブラザースが正式に謝罪してくれてホッとした」
"I'm relieved that Warner Bros. has formally apologized."

Though, Vogue Japan has immediately deleted it (I have taken a snap earlier

Warner Bros has cancelled all Interview with Japanese Reporters. Some netizens here says "if the director and producers have not issued a NG, isn't Warner Bros. the worst?" Though may be because of SAG strike they cancelled media interaction after Premiere.

It was going to get a late release in Japan regardless of the Barbenheimer controversy, because it would be too close to the 78th anniversary of the bombings if it was released in July, August, or September. Releasing it within a month either way of the dates could be seen as insensitive perhaps. So, October at the very earliest, but October is generally a weak month, so they'd likely wait until November or December.

We'll just have to wait and see what happens I guess. My prediction: If the Barbenheimer controversy dies down after Barbie is released and in the coming months, Oppenheimer will get released in November/December.

So... The First Slam Dunk broke ¥15 billion on Monday as reported, making it the 14th film in history to ever reach the milestone. It returned to the top 10 again last week, its 34th week of release, and its run ends on August 31st.

As we've seen with other examples the past couple years, the announcing the end date strategy has proved very lucrative for a film's box office as it gives fans and casuals a set date to see the film by which has caused the numbers in the final week(s) to increase. And that has been the case here, and we will probably see it go up a decent bit more thanks to Obon Festival and just the general strength of August. If Toei throws in a farewell giveaway this month, I can see it challenging Ponyo for the #13 spot.

Detective Conan and Super Mario Bros. remain super close, and while DC had the advantage of winning this battle, Mario has the advantage as it's really benefitted from reaching summer vacation and still maintaining a healthy amount of seating. Mario will overtake it in two weeks I think, and while that should be enough to call it the winner between the two, Toho could still do an expansion for DC like they have with the recent releases to put it ahead again sometime. So, ultimately, we might need to hold off on calling a winner here until we see more of a final result.

As for admissions...

The First Slam Dunk will overtake Frozen II and Avatar very soon, and will likely surpass Weathering With You and E.T. as well to enter the Top 20. I don't think it will get up to 11 million, but we need to see if Toei has any special events/giveaways for its final month in release.

Detective Conan and Super Mario Bros. are also very close in their admissions battle too. Advantage Mario in overtaking it in a couple weeks, but it's still hard to say which will ultimately win until we know if Toho is doing a late expansion for DC like they've done with the past recent films in the franchise. I don't expect either to reach 10 million, but they'll probably surpass Godzilla and challenge The Wind Rises for a spot in the Top 25.

Some people I have talked to through discord think Elemental can become a Frozen like success in Japan just like in South Korea but I do not want to overestimate like them. So It is good to keep expectations in check for Elemental performance in Japan.

After looking at the Mimorin Data I think I was off on how many seats Elemental will have in the total scheme of things.

With 162,168 seats from Mimorin and 98,656 Aeon sats for a total of 260,824 tracked seats, I guess that's more like an overall total of 350,000.

After seeing Oppenheimer I think it's an astounding movie but it will never ever get a wide release in Japan. Maybe a specialty screening, if that.

I still think it's going to be more of a Disney issue than a film issue regarding Elemental. It's been said a million times now, but they've dropped off hugely at the box office.

Depending on how the rest of the year goes, they may not have a film in the Yearly Top 10 for a fourth consecutive year. Avatar 2 is currently #7, but it'll be bumped down to #8 when MI7 passes it. Can three more films surpass it to take it out of the 2023 Top 10? Well, Godzilla: Minus One and Fly Me to Saitama 2 are very likely to do it, so only one more film would knock it out of the 2023 Top 10 which is probably likely. Would be a pretty weak August-October if no film released there does ¥4.32 billion+.

EDIT! Kingdom III is likely to outgross Avatar 2 too, so yeah, it'll very likely miss the Yearly Top 10 and make Disney go a fourth consecutive year without one film in the Yearly Top 10. Either Godzilla: Minus One or Fly Me to Saitama 2 would have to underperform.

Of course, this is assuming that Elemental doesn't get in the 2023 Top 10. I'm just making the point that Japan audiences have largely abandoned Disney releases at the box office. It's going to be really difficult for Elemental to breakout based on this. And note that the average gross for a Pixar original (or just Pixar film in general) is ¥4-5 billion. A lot of their films (Incredibles, Incredibles 2, Ratatouille, Wall-E, Up, Inside Out, and Coco) end up in this range. That should be the goal for Elemental. But Disney films have been performing well below precedent or norms, so we'll see what happens soon. *Fingers crossed* it can do well.

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Seems like this weekend has a good chance at having 6 films over 300m, can’t remember the last time that happened but surely not since the pandemic

Since we're on 3-day weekends now, it seems doable.

And The First Slam Dunk rising back to #2-4 (very close race) today on its 243rd day in release is nuts. Up over 900% versus last week or over its final week. I knew Toei was likely to have something planned for its final month in release, but figured that'd take place over Obon Festival next week. But nope! Looks like they're going to take full advantage of the full moth.

If we see more numbers like this, it won't just overtake Ponyo for #13 all time, but possibly Avatar for #12 all-time too.

The orange circle shows are half sold out in Shinjuku Tokyo Toho.

I don't know how good this is for Elemental because this is probably one of the busiest cinemas in Japan but I am encouraged.

Yeah, try looking around other theaters. Always good to have marked showings at Toho Shinjuku, of course, but it is indeed the busiest theater in the country. It's very unusual for films to not be over 50% full most days of the week. It's even unusual to not see many very full showings nearing sell out (marked with a triangle) most of the time for most films.

I'll consider anything above 450 million yen for Elemental's 3 day opening to be a rollicking success. That would mean it's likely to exceed the original projection of 1.2 billion yen total for its run.

Why are Togo's online ticket sales on all day

but 109 Cinemas and SMT Movix online tiket sales are suspended for 3 or 4 hours ending at 6am.

What's so special about Toho where they don't have to cancel sales from the website for "Maintence"

A ¥450m start would get it much higher than ¥1.2 billion. It'd be aiming for up to ¥3 billion (at least) with that sort of opening this time of year. The weekdays for the next few weeks are going to be very strong, and during Obon Festival itself next week, those weekdays will greatly outpace the weekend earnings.

As for why Toho Cinemas doesn't have any down time when looking to make a reservation, it's probably just due to them being so big and having the capabilities of running 24/7.

Looks like a four-way race at the box office this weekend in Japan. Crayon Shin-chan has a big lead early on though.

Definitely going to be pretty close between several films this weekend.

I think we can rule out Transformers debuting at #1 though. It should have the weakest Saturday increase, so it should be out of the race.

My prediction is Kingdom III just manages to hold onto #1 for a second weekend. Crayon Shin-chan might be able to compete with it in admissions, but Kingdom should have the avg. ticket price advantage to hold it off.

So, second and third will go to Crayon Shin-chan and Elemental. My guess is Crayon Shin-chan takes #2 with Elemental pretty close behind at #3.

That'll leave Transformers at #4. I haven't checked Aeon yet, but it looks to have just barely beaten Elemental for third place on Friday, but as mentioned, it should have the weakest Saturday increase and fall behind.

And fifth and sixth place, How Do You Live? and MI7 aren't going to be too far behind the top 4 either.

Overall, looks like a very good weekend. Holdovers holding good but not great, none of the openers look to breakout, but remember that August isn't known for its openings. Business is super spread out over the summer vacation dailies and Obon Festival, so just normal/good openings go a really long way.

I'm estimating that How Do You Live? hit ¥5 billion on Thursday, its 21st day in release. There's a chance it got to the mark on Wednesday (day 20), but I think Tuesday being a discount day probably kept it just shy of the mark.

21 days will be the same amount of time Miyazaki's last film, The Wind Rises, also took to reach the mark. Of course, HDYL? had a bigger opening, so it's tracking behind it overall. ¥10 billion isn't out of the question (50-60% it still can, I'd say), but it can be a little difficult to get to that milestone when it takes 20+ days to hit ¥5 billion. Generally speaking, of course, as it depends on when a film opens, its type of performance (small opening + strong legs vs big opening + weaker legs, for example), and other factors.

The good news: Its holds have gradually been improving. They're still below where they want to be, but if they continue to improve, it can really use the Obon Festival period to boost its numbers.

Fastest Films to ¥5 billion (Blockbuster Milestone):

4 days - Demon Slayer: Mugen Train (2020)
_____
8 days - One Piece Film Red (2022)
9 days - The Super Mario Bros. Movie (2023)
9 days - Detective Conan: The Black Iron Submarine (2023)
9 days - Jujutsu Kaisen 0 (2021)
10 days - Howl's Moving Castle (2004)
_____
11 days - The Matrix Reloaded (2003)
12 days - Harry Potter and the Chamber of Secrets (2002)
13 days - Harry Potter and the Sorcerer's Stone (2001)
13 days - Spirited Away (2001)
14 days - Suzume (2022)
14 days - Weathering With You (2019)
14 days - Beauty and the Beast (2017)
14 days - Your Name. (2016)
14 days - Star Wars: The Force Awakens (2015)
14 days - Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End (2007)
14 days - Bayside Shakedown: Save the Rainbow Bridge! (2003)
15 days - Evangelion 3.0+1.0: Thrice Upon a Time (2021)
15 days - Jurassic World (2015)
15 days - Yo-Kai Watch: It's the Secret of Birth, Nyan! (2014)
15 days - Alice in Wonderland (2010)
15 days - Harry Potter and the Prisoner of Azkaban (2004)
_____
16 days - Frozen II (2019)
16 days - Toy Story 4 (2019)
16 days - Aladdin (2019)
16 days - Ponyo (2008)
16 days - Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix (2007)
16 days - The Da Vinci Code (2006)
16 days - Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest (2006)
16 days - Star Wars: Episode I - The Phantom Menace (1999)
17 days - Detective Conan: The Bride of Halloween (2022)
17 days - Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker (2019)
17 days - Code Blue (2018)
17 days - Frozen (2014)
17 days - Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows - Part 2 (2011)
17 days - Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides (2011)
17 days - Star Wars: Episode III - Revenge of the Sith (2005)
18 days - Detective Conan: The Scarlet Bullet (2021)
18 days - Detective Conan: The Fist of Blue Sapphire (2019)
18 days - Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom (2018)
18 days - Rookies (2009)
18 days - Spider-Man 3 (2007)
18 days - Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire (2005)
19 days - Star Wars: The Last Jedi (2017)
20 days - Umizaru: The Last Message (2010)
_____
21 days - How Do You Live? (2023)
21 days - Detective Conan: Zero the Enforcer (2018)
21 days - The Wind Rises (2013)
21 days - One Piece Film Z (2012)
21 days - Hero (2007)
22 days - Top Gun: Mavierick (2022)
22 days - Avengers: Endgame (2019)
22 days - Avatar (2009)
22 days - The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King (2004)
22 days - Finding Nemo (2003)
22 days - Terminator 3: Rise of the Machines (2003)
22 days - Star Wars: Episode II - Attack of the Clones (2002)
23 days - The First Slam Dunk (2022)
23 days - Detective Conan: Crimson Love Letter (2017)
23 days - Big Hero 6 (2014)
23 days - Arrietty (2010)
24 days - Toy Story 3 (2010)
24 days - The Last Samurai (2003)

I had forgotten how long it took Slam Dunk to reach 5B

What an incredible run it had after that, crazy