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publicenemy#1
Extraordinary
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 12:25 am Posts: 18944 Location: San Diego
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Avengers 4 predictions
So... with how Infinity War ended, just how big can this be?
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Sun Apr 29, 2018 12:32 pm |
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zwackerm
Hold the door!
Joined: Sun Jun 01, 2014 10:26 pm Posts: 20434 Location: Where they shot Knock at the Cabin
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Re: Avengers 4 predictions
I think it will gross less in total, but open within 10m of infinity war.
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Sun Apr 29, 2018 12:34 pm |
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Passionate Thug
Top Poster
Joined: Sun Oct 17, 2004 1:01 am Posts: 5261 Location: Wakanda
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Re: Avengers 4 predictions
As long as they don't get cute with it like WB did with JL in trying to hide Superman in the marketing when everyone knew he was in the movie I'm thinking about a 35% drop from IW if they are straight up about who's in it and 45% drop if they play coy.
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Sun Apr 29, 2018 12:43 pm |
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Corpse
Don't Dream It, Be It
Joined: Wed Aug 02, 2006 12:45 pm Posts: 37152 Location: The Graveyard
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Re: Avengers 4 predictions
It's not going to lose 35%-45% of its audience no matter who they show in the marketing... It might not even reach $400 million total if that was the case, and that's silly.
_________________Japan Box Office “Gods are great ... but the heart is greater. For it is from our hearts they come, and to our hearts they shall return.” “We were like gods at the dawning of the world, & our joy was so bright we could see nothing else but the other.” “There are three things all wise men fear: the sea in storm, a night with no moon, and the anger of a gentle man.” “You have to pretend you get an endgame. You have to carry on like you will; otherwise, you can't carry on at all.” "Paper is dead without words / Ink idle without a poem / All the world dead without stories."
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Sun Apr 29, 2018 12:44 pm |
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Passionate Thug
Top Poster
Joined: Sun Oct 17, 2004 1:01 am Posts: 5261 Location: Wakanda
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Re: Avengers 4 predictions
HP:DH2 lost about that from HP: DH1, remember also this will be released in the next year
Last edited by Passionate Thug on Sun Apr 29, 2018 12:48 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Sun Apr 29, 2018 12:48 pm |
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publicenemy#1
Extraordinary
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 12:25 am Posts: 18944 Location: San Diego
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Re: Avengers 4 predictions
Passionate Thug wrote: As long as they don't get cute with it like WB did with JL in trying to hide Superman in the marketing when everyone knew he was in the movie I'm thinking about a 35% drop from IW if they are straight up about who's in it and 45% drop if they play coy. DC in general couldn't win with that sitution. Had Superman been in the advertising people would get mad like with Doomsday. People just love to rag on DC. MCU won't advertise the "dead" and it'll work.
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Sun Apr 29, 2018 12:48 pm |
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Darth Indiana Bond
007
Joined: Wed Jul 20, 2005 11:43 pm Posts: 11075 Location: Wouldn't you like to know
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Re: Avengers 4 predictions
Yeah it is popular to bash DC right now
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Sun Apr 29, 2018 12:52 pm |
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Jonathan
Begging Naked
Joined: Mon Oct 25, 2004 12:07 pm Posts: 14737 Location: The Present (Duh)
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Re: Avengers 4 predictions
Magnus wrote: TLJ/Ultron level drop on OW. Which puts it around 225m-235m OW. Legs can be anthseee from 2.4-2.6 so that’s a range of 540m-610m. This looks about right, although I also keep thinking about how much other the second part in two-part movies dropped from the first half when the first half was already maxing out on hype (Back to the Future Part II/III, Reloaded/Revolutions, Dead Man's Chest/At World's End). So a sub-$500 million gross also wouldn't surprise me. Not that Disney is gonna cry over that amount or anything.
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Sun Apr 29, 2018 12:57 pm |
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Dil
Forum General
Joined: Wed Oct 28, 2009 9:48 pm Posts: 8942 Location: Houston, Texas
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Re: Avengers 4 predictions
Jonathan wrote: Magnus wrote: TLJ/Ultron level drop on OW. Which puts it around 225m-235m OW. Legs can be anthseee from 2.4-2.6 so that’s a range of 540m-610m. This looks about right, although I also keep thinking about how much other the second part in two-part movies dropped from the first half when the first half was already maxing out on hype (Back to the Future Part II/III, Reloaded/Revolutions, Dead Man's Chest/At World's End). So a sub-$500 million gross also wouldn't surprise me. Not that Disney is gonna cry over that amount or anything. Yeah Magnus's prediction looks right on. I can see a decrease for the OW, but IW ends on such a compelling hook that an increase probably wouldn't be too surprising either. I really think it will come down to the marketing, but this already has more going for it than your usual Part 2's outside of DH2 IMO.
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Sun Apr 29, 2018 2:08 pm |
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Jack Sparrow
KJ's Leading Idiot
Joined: Thu Dec 31, 2009 8:15 pm Posts: 36923
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Re: Avengers 4 predictions
I'm thinking $210m OW (just about where the first Avengers opened) and good legs for $600m total.
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Sun Apr 29, 2018 2:27 pm |
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Moviebuf
Angels & Demons
Joined: Sun Oct 24, 2004 6:44 pm Posts: 270
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Re: Avengers 4 predictions
This is hard to predict. The general audience reception to IW seems pretty good so far, and with the cliffhanger ending it may actually lead to a "this is the conclusion of Marvel Cinematic Universe up to this point" type of increase.
A lot also will just depend on general movie quality. If the review embargo and initial screening had poor reception we know IW wouldn't be doing as much as it is right now.
_________________ Proclaimed King of Loonies!
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Sun Apr 29, 2018 2:32 pm |
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BK
Forum General
Joined: Sun May 13, 2007 8:30 am Posts: 7041
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Re: Avengers 4 predictions
Passionate Thug wrote: HP:DH2 lost about that from HP: DH1, remember also this will be released in the next year Have you got the right comparison? DH2 destroyed DH1. Did you mean Mockingjay or something else? Anyway, I can't see Avengers 4 beating this one even if this isn't the true finale. I kinda feel that the GA blew their load here expecting it to be the final, and now that it isn't, I'm not sure they'll so willingly give Marvel the time of day next year. However, if it's even better than IW, I could see it matching IW total. Weird isn't it? That the penultimate movie could beat the final one. This isn't a DMC/AWE or TDK/TDKR scenario of "just another sequel", this is Marvel's "book" franchise with a defined end. I would be flabbergasted if A4 could outgross IW. Even matching it would be historical.
_________________ Calls Ghost Rider + Clash of the Titans = 2x Wrath of the Titans + Ghost Rider 2 Lorax over Despicable Me Men in Black 3 Under 100m Madagascar 3 Under 100m Rise of the Guardians over 250m
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Sun Apr 29, 2018 2:37 pm |
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Moviebuf
Angels & Demons
Joined: Sun Oct 24, 2004 6:44 pm Posts: 270
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Re: Avengers 4 predictions
BK wrote: Passionate Thug wrote: HP:DH2 lost about that from HP: DH1, remember also this will be released in the next year Have you got the right comparison? DH2 destroyed DH1. Did you mean Mockingjay or something else? Anyway, I can't see Avengers 4 beating this one even if this isn't the true finale. I kinda feel that the GA blew their load here expecting it to be the final, and now that it isn't, I'm not sure they'll so willingly give Marvel the time of day next year. However, if it's even better than IW, I could see it matching IW total. Weird isn't it? That the penultimate movie could beat the final one. This isn't a DMC/AWE or TDK/TDKR scenario of "just another sequel", this is Marvel's "book" franchise with a defined end. I would be flabbergasted if A4 could outgross IW. Even matching it would be historical. I think the quality will really make or break its comparison to IW. If it is really good, and word gets out about it, then the sky is the limit. If it is mediocre it will go the classic sequel route.
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Sun Apr 29, 2018 2:41 pm |
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Barrabás
llegó a la casa vía marítima
Joined: Sun Aug 05, 2007 4:53 pm Posts: 6165 Location: la gran casa de la esquina
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Re: Avengers 4 predictions
$220-$230m OW. I can't imagine many people who saw this one will want to miss the continuation. It's a pretty ballsy cliffhanger.
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Sun Apr 29, 2018 5:10 pm |
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Jedi Master Carr
Extraordinary
Joined: Fri Nov 11, 2005 9:51 pm Posts: 11637
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Re: Avengers 4 predictions
They need to sell it as the last movie for the original Avengers. Evans, Downey, and maybe even Hemsworth are both done after this film.
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Sun Apr 29, 2018 6:19 pm |
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Jmart
Superman: The Movie
Joined: Fri Oct 22, 2004 8:47 am Posts: 21165 Location: Massachusetts
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Re: Avengers 4 predictions
I don’t see much of a drop off if any. Outside of Captain’s probable death (someone has to get sacrificed like Gamora and Tony is going to have that wedding/kid) I’m pretty sure the movie is going to have a feel good happy ending. Kids are going to eat that shit up whereas they might not like the ending to this and might not yet understand how comic book deaths work. IW is going to do just fine, but it wouldn’t surprise me if the drop next week is slightly harsher than some are predicting even with no direct competition.
_________________My DVD Collection Marty McGee (1989-2005)
If I’m not here, I’m on Letterboxd.
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Sun Apr 29, 2018 9:38 pm |
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BK
Forum General
Joined: Sun May 13, 2007 8:30 am Posts: 7041
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Re: Avengers 4 predictions
Marketing has to be on-point and it must be made known this is the LAST LAST.
Without that, GA might think Ultron or Civil War levels of irrelevance.
I think it's also gonna be hard to sell the same film/promise twice in 12 months.
I loved the film, but you can't fuck with the GA and expect no consequences.
_________________ Calls Ghost Rider + Clash of the Titans = 2x Wrath of the Titans + Ghost Rider 2 Lorax over Despicable Me Men in Black 3 Under 100m Madagascar 3 Under 100m Rise of the Guardians over 250m
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Sun Apr 29, 2018 10:21 pm |
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Jack Sparrow
KJ's Leading Idiot
Joined: Thu Dec 31, 2009 8:15 pm Posts: 36923
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Re: Avengers 4 predictions
I think the marketing was with the angle that this is the culmination of past 10 years but nowhere it was mentioned that this is the end which might work here but yeah its definitely going to open lower and unless its WoM is even better than the first Avengers its not going to do more than IW.
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Mon Apr 30, 2018 1:02 am |
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Rolling Thunder
Forum General
Joined: Fri Nov 19, 2004 12:11 pm Posts: 9148 Location: Kentucky Bluegrass
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Re: Avengers 4 predictions
There's enough discontent with what transpired in IW to see a noticeable decline. Still don't see it missing $200m OW, though.
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Mon Apr 30, 2018 12:14 pm |
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Jack Sparrow
KJ's Leading Idiot
Joined: Thu Dec 31, 2009 8:15 pm Posts: 36923
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Re: Avengers 4 predictions
I'm upping my early prediction to $220m+ to get past TLJ as third biggest OW.
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Mon Apr 30, 2018 9:43 pm |
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Algren
now we know
Joined: Tue Oct 19, 2004 9:31 pm Posts: 67151
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Re: Avengers 4 predictions
Doesn't this come out next year? Obviously Marvel will position this as "the end". That is bound to mean it makes more than Part 1. If Part 1 made $258m, then I'm going with $285m for Part 2.
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Mon Apr 30, 2018 9:48 pm |
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Jack Sparrow
KJ's Leading Idiot
Joined: Thu Dec 31, 2009 8:15 pm Posts: 36923
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Re: Avengers 4 predictions
I don't think it will work like that. A lot of people thought that IW would be the end of all even if they really didn't mention it. They only marketed "10 years of MCU" but I felt that people thought its the end of MCU's 10 years. Even if the next one is end of all 10 years it just won't be able to top the hook IW had, its no longer the novelty of seeing ALL these heroes again in action.
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Mon Apr 30, 2018 9:53 pm |
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Algren
now we know
Joined: Tue Oct 19, 2004 9:31 pm Posts: 67151
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Re: Avengers 4 predictions
Jack Sparrow wrote: its no longer the novelty of seeing ALL these heroes again in action. That was not the novelty even this time around.
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Mon Apr 30, 2018 10:27 pm |
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Jack Sparrow
KJ's Leading Idiot
Joined: Thu Dec 31, 2009 8:15 pm Posts: 36923
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Re: Avengers 4 predictions
It was this time that's what culmination of MCU 10 years meant.
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Tue May 01, 2018 5:41 am |
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Rev
Romosexual!
Joined: Tue Oct 19, 2004 3:06 am Posts: 32132 Location: the last free city
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Re: Avengers 4 predictions
Oh it's going to be bigger. IW has made me a believer lol Opens to 260-265m n totals 700-800m. When all said n done both films will combined to gross around 3.5 billion worldwide
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Tue May 01, 2018 7:30 am |
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