New Predictions:

The Interpreter - $21,000,000.
Should open over $20M, after two solid international starts, oscar cast and good reviews.

The Amityville Horror - $11,000,000
Sahara- $8,500,000
A Lot Like Love- $8,000,000

THE INTERPRETER is PG-13.

TI - $17.8
Amity - $11.5
KR - $9.5
ALLL - $9.0
KFH - $7.5
Sah - $6.5

Oh I thought it was R, well its pg-13 should help.

Someone from HSX mentioned that early tracking is showing Interpreter at No. 1, Kung-Fu Hustle at No. 2, and A Lot Like Love third, among new wide releases.

I think people are lowballing King's Ransom. The "urban comedies (tm)" always open big and then drop quick. Alot Like Love will suffer for it. Switch the two around. I still think Interpreter gets #1, Hustle will sneak in above others for #2, Ransom will take three and ALLL fourth. I don't know how the carry-over Amityville will fit into this. I expect it to get around 10 million, so it'll be duking it out with Hustle for second...bumping Ransom and Love to fourth and fifth.

The number of screens is quite important this weekend. The Interpreter shouldn't have trouble averaging 2 screens per theater, but the other three should be interesting. Whichever got the more prominent and bigger screen in the theater will make a difference. I expect a lot of MC2 ones to be replaced by A Lot Like Love. Beauty Shop should suffer some loss as well.

Na, see I usually call urban movies doing better then expected (I was the only person here that had heard of State Property 2 before it made 1.3 million on a Wednesday opening), but I haven't heard much about this at all. It has the potential for a surprise 9 million opener, but even though the case was pretty clearly proven false, I think some people aren't aware that Anthony Anderson did NOT rape that girl on the set of Hustle & Flow. That will definitely hurt, and I've only seen the trailer about three times, and only two TV spots, and I watch a lot of channels that appeal to the urban crowd like BET.

A couple of things I'm not clear on:
Is Kung Fu Hustle in english?
Is Kung Fu Hustle a comedy?

If no for question 1 and yes for question 2 (which I understand to be correct) then how are they marketing it in the States? Most comedies chuck a funny line or two into the ads which could be difficult if it isn't in english, and hard to sell as a result. Are they dubbing it in english?

It's correct that the answer is No for 1 and yes for 2. It's in Cantonese, but it's an action comedy, where most of the laughs come from the screen instead of through dialogs. I think that helps marketing.

King's Ransom WILL bomb. It looks like a direct to video release and the commercials aren't funny. I wouldn't be surprised if it opened under 3 million. Big Bounce of 2005.

I don't see it doing THAT badly.

The Cookout, which looked about ten billion times worse, opened to $7M. That opened on Labor Day weekend (I think), but I don't see why King's Ransom will do less than half of The Cookout on opening weekend.

"Action Comedy"- I like that phrase... Cheers...

Openers

The Interpreter - $19.5m

Kung Fu Hustle - $9.4m I dont know if it can even do this much, the tv spots arent selling the movie at all and the R rating will affect it even more, lets not even start with how bad some people tear movie aparts just for being subtitled when they had no idea it would be ( Hero for example ), but I still think wom will be good enough to keep its week to week drops great.

A Lot Like Love - $11.3m

Kings Ransom - 6.8m

It didnt even get to 1.3m yet, let alone opening day. 756k over the weekend, 216k on opening day.

Yeah but remember that breakdancing one or whatever it was (I'm drawing a blank for some reason, it might be skateboarding. I've been working on this paper too long). You got served i think it was called. I dunno, I see alot of adds for it here, but I guess that Anderson thing might wiegh it down, and maybe their isn't the same advertising for it anywhere else except for on subways here. But I wouldn't go as low as some of you guys are going, at least Killuminati's nearing 7 million. I just think Fever Pitch is still out there and has good wom, and its going to take a bit off of Love's top. Seriously, we've had alot of freakin' rom coms and chick flicks out lately.

Cookout did 5mil and I actually saw marketing for that movie, this one has little to none, but you're right this does look better so maybe people who actually are aware of the movie will see it.

Looks like a remake of Ruthless People, which I thought was good. Started a thread on this awhile ago in cinemania which died quick. Might be an indication of how many people are interested in it? It might have bad marketing outside of what I've seen here, like Moviedude said.

I heard of State Property 2 as well, just didn'r expect it to make over a million

I believe that King's Ransom is being undermarketed (of what I read online, as I don't live in the States) and I think that some don't even know it's coming out. I sense results similar to The Cookout....

They have shown the trailer during DIARY OF A MAD BLACK WOMAN and BEAUTY SHOP. I'm sure that will attract people. I'm sure almost everyone that saw DIARY OF A MAD BLACK WOMAN will see this, it looks much better than what DIARY actually was (still looks like shit though) and most everyone loved DIARY.

No way, You Got Served appealed to a huge demographic of people that do that sort of thing, not to mention was about a physical competition (not quite a sport, but still has a lot of interest) and had show stopping dance movies in the trailer, and was marketed by the amazing Sony that can turn anything into a hit. They're both urban movies but entirely different movies.

The Interpeter 19.7 million
Kung fu hustle 7.5 million

Retaining screen counts has nothing to do with how good the movie will hold. Godzilla kept all it's 7000 screens in it's second weekend, and it still noisedived almost 60%.

Don't most studios require theaters to carry their film for at least two weeks, regardless of performance?