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Biggestgeekever
I heet the canadian!
Joined: Mon Jan 23, 2006 12:58 am Posts: 5192 Location: The Great _______
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Wonder Woman daily predictions/discussion
Weekend actuals are in and Wonder Woman delivered a $29,750,819 Sunday. Suicide Squad, despite having an opening day 41% bigger, had a first Sunday only $460K higher. Even more impressively, this was done despite Game 2 having a higher rating than last year. All the metrics we have suggest the film has fantastic WOM and this Sunday hold is the first sign at the box office of that. As we've seen in the past with TDK, Inception, and Avengers, blockbuster films that have a strong Sunday and great WOM often experience a low Monday decline as well. Adding to this, Wonder Woman's audience skews slightly female, and female driven films routinely have the best weekdays holds during the summer. All told, I would expect Wonder Woman to hold roughly 10% better than the norm, which based on the last few years, should be around 65%.
Mon: $13.0M -56.30% Tue: $15.1M +16.15% Wed: $10.1M -33.11% Thu: $9.2M -8.91% Fri: $15.7M +70.65% Sat: $20.5M +30.57% Sun: $15.4M -24.88%
2nd w/e: $51.6M -50.02%
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Mon Jun 05, 2017 4:28 pm |
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publicenemy#1
Extraordinary
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 12:25 am Posts: 18932 Location: San Diego
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Re: Wonder Woman daily predictions/discussion
50% second weekend drop or less would mean a higher second weekend than BvS. I think it'll be closer to 55% than 50%, hope I'm wrong!
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Mon Jun 05, 2017 6:08 pm |
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Chippy
KJ's Leading Pundit
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 4:45 pm Posts: 63026 Location: Tonight... YOU!
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Re: Wonder Woman daily predictions/discussion
If it can achieve a 50% drop for Weekend 2... We could be looking at a pretty lengthy run. I think the Tuesday hold will be pretty great.
_________________trixster wrote: shut the fuck up zwackerm, you're out of your fucking element trixster wrote: chippy is correct
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Mon Jun 05, 2017 6:43 pm |
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Biggestgeekever
I heet the canadian!
Joined: Mon Jan 23, 2006 12:58 am Posts: 5192 Location: The Great _______
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Re: Wonder Woman daily predictions/discussion
$350M could happen if my predictions pan out; Maleficent got a 4.3 multiplier off its 2nd weekend, which would give WW $370M. I don't see that happening because Maleficent played pretty strongly to family audiences (somehow) and WW will likely drop 50% in its 6th weekend thanks to Spider-Man: Homecoming, whereas Maleficent only dropped 27% in its comparable frame.
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Mon Jun 05, 2017 7:20 pm |
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Brian
Ocarina of Time
Joined: Mon Aug 02, 2010 1:21 pm Posts: 7951 Location: Hyrule
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Re: Wonder Woman daily predictions/discussion
-50% on Monday
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Mon Jun 05, 2017 8:17 pm |
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Algren
now we know
Joined: Tue Oct 19, 2004 9:31 pm Posts: 67125
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Re: Wonder Woman daily predictions/discussion
I do not think its 2nd Sunday hold will be that good. By then, a bit of a reality check will have set in and people will see that it's a pretty shit film. I expect over 30% drop.
_________________STOP UIGHUR GENOCIDE IN XINJIANG FIGHT FOR TAIWAN INDEPENDENCE FREE TIBET LIBERATE HONG KONG BOYCOTT MADE IN CHINA
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Tue Jun 06, 2017 12:12 am |
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Jack Sparrow
KJ's Leading Idiot
Joined: Thu Dec 31, 2009 8:15 pm Posts: 36923
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Re: Wonder Woman daily predictions/discussion
MoS had great first Sunday as well so I wouldn't go ahead and say that this is guaranteed to do a 3X multiplier. I think it will do $280m-$290m now (a little higher than my previous prediction).
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Tue Jun 06, 2017 12:18 am |
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publicenemy#1
Extraordinary
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 12:25 am Posts: 18932 Location: San Diego
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Re: Wonder Woman daily predictions/discussion
Jack Sparrow wrote: MoS had great first Sunday as well so I wouldn't go ahead and say that this is guaranteed to do a 3X multiplier. I think it will do $280m-$290m now (a little higher than my previous prediction). Man of Steel's Sunday was Father's Day....
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Tue Jun 06, 2017 12:21 am |
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Jack Sparrow
KJ's Leading Idiot
Joined: Thu Dec 31, 2009 8:15 pm Posts: 36923
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Re: Wonder Woman daily predictions/discussion
That's still a great hold and I don't think it would have dropped more than 16% otherwise.
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Tue Jun 06, 2017 12:23 am |
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Rolling Thunder
Forum General
Joined: Fri Nov 19, 2004 12:11 pm Posts: 9148 Location: Kentucky Bluegrass
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Re: Wonder Woman daily predictions/discussion
Spent awhile looking over IMDB reviews and found it interesting that many of the poor ones were actually from women. Found at least two dozen saying that while they appreciate a female superhero entry, they didn't understand all the apparent hype and critical praise. It's why I'm still not sold on this having super legs.
_________________ Making Predictions Great Again!
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Tue Jun 06, 2017 8:38 am |
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Jack Sparrow
KJ's Leading Idiot
Joined: Thu Dec 31, 2009 8:15 pm Posts: 36923
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Re: Wonder Woman daily predictions/discussion
I think the DC fans are just hyped that their is finally a movie that is critically praised. Marvel movies have been constantly doing great over OW with critical approval but they are decreasing in legs something I believe might happen with WW as well, it would still do better than SS and BvS multipliers. Mummy and Transformers is not easy competition for WW.
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Tue Jun 06, 2017 11:21 pm |
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publicenemy#1
Extraordinary
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 12:25 am Posts: 18932 Location: San Diego
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Re: Wonder Woman daily predictions/discussion
I'm predicting 15% increase for Tuesday, $13.5m.
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Wed Jun 07, 2017 1:53 am |
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Laida
Newbie
Joined: Fri May 19, 2017 8:39 am Posts: 6
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Re: Wonder Woman daily predictions/discussion
23% bump from Monday. Deadline's early prediction for its second weekend is at 60M. Being optimistic is a good thing.
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Wed Jun 07, 2017 10:31 am |
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Jack Sparrow
KJ's Leading Idiot
Joined: Thu Dec 31, 2009 8:15 pm Posts: 36923
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Re: Wonder Woman daily predictions/discussion
Given that Tuesday's are big and WW is skewing more women (bigger weekdays) its not surprising that it increased. I don't think its heading for $60m second weekend, its Friday bump won't be big enough.
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Wed Jun 07, 2017 8:40 pm |
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Biggestgeekever
I heet the canadian!
Joined: Mon Jan 23, 2006 12:58 am Posts: 5192 Location: The Great _______
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Re: Wonder Woman daily predictions/discussion
When I wrote up those projections, I did forget about the game on Friday, so it's possible the film will have a stronger Saturday bump. If WW can get $53M this weekend, I think it will make it to $350M domestic.
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Sat Jun 10, 2017 5:54 pm |
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Jack Sparrow
KJ's Leading Idiot
Joined: Thu Dec 31, 2009 8:15 pm Posts: 36923
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Re: Wonder Woman daily predictions/discussion
That Friday number is surely surprising. I wonder if it can maintain the momentum and go above GotG2.
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Sun Jun 11, 2017 12:59 am |
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Chippy
KJ's Leading Pundit
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 4:45 pm Posts: 63026 Location: Tonight... YOU!
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Re: Wonder Woman daily predictions/discussion
Can it break into the Top 10 All Time 3rd Weekends?
_________________trixster wrote: shut the fuck up zwackerm, you're out of your fucking element trixster wrote: chippy is correct
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Mon Jun 12, 2017 11:33 am |
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Algren
now we know
Joined: Tue Oct 19, 2004 9:31 pm Posts: 67125
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Re: Wonder Woman daily predictions/discussion
Algren wrote: I do not think its 2nd Sunday hold will be that good. By then, a bit of a reality check will have set in and people will see that it's a pretty shit film. I expect over 30% drop. Fuck...21.6%.
_________________STOP UIGHUR GENOCIDE IN XINJIANG FIGHT FOR TAIWAN INDEPENDENCE FREE TIBET LIBERATE HONG KONG BOYCOTT MADE IN CHINA
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Mon Jun 12, 2017 7:12 pm |
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zwackerm
Hold the door!
Joined: Sun Jun 01, 2014 10:26 pm Posts: 20418 Location: Where they shot Knock at the Cabin
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Re: Wonder Woman daily predictions/discussion
I'm thinking 8.3m Monday, -29% from last Monday
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Mon Jun 12, 2017 7:15 pm |
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SolC9
Forum General
Joined: Fri Jun 24, 2005 11:11 pm Posts: 7172 Location: Wisconsin
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Re: Wonder Woman daily predictions/discussion
zwackerm wrote: I'm thinking 8.3m Monday, -29% from last Monday Not a bad prediction, though I wouldn't be surprised if it goes lower with game 5 of the NBA finals tonight. I'm expecting anywhere from 7.5 to 8.5M Monday, with another nice increase on Tuesday.
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Mon Jun 12, 2017 8:44 pm |
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Jack Sparrow
KJ's Leading Idiot
Joined: Thu Dec 31, 2009 8:15 pm Posts: 36923
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Re: Wonder Woman daily predictions/discussion
Should easily stay above $8m mark on Monday. Can it do $10m on Tuesday?
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Tue Jun 13, 2017 12:02 am |
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bl1222
Veteran
Joined: Sun Sep 18, 2005 8:36 pm Posts: 3900
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Re: Wonder Woman daily predictions/discussion
Jack Sparrow wrote: Should easily stay above $8m mark on Monday. Can it do $10m on Tuesday? Not impossible.
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Tue Jun 13, 2017 12:11 am |
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SolC9
Forum General
Joined: Fri Jun 24, 2005 11:11 pm Posts: 7172 Location: Wisconsin
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Re: Wonder Woman daily predictions/discussion
Jack Sparrow wrote: Should easily stay above $8m mark on Monday. Can it do $10m on Tuesday? If it stays above 8M Monday, I'd say it has a great shot at 10M+ Tuesday.
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Tue Jun 13, 2017 12:38 am |
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Jack Sparrow
KJ's Leading Idiot
Joined: Thu Dec 31, 2009 8:15 pm Posts: 36923
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Re: Wonder Woman daily predictions/discussion
I think I got too excited with its weekend numbers. If it gets a drop similar to last Monday it will do $7.4m so yeah my initial thought of easy $8m is not as easy. If it crosses $8m then with a 22% (similar to first Tuesday) it gets $9.76m now the increase this Tuesday will surely be a bit better but the Monday drop might not be as good. But you never know the Sunday was just too brilliant and big, makes it difficult to predict Monday.
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Tue Jun 13, 2017 1:11 am |
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zwackerm
Hold the door!
Joined: Sun Jun 01, 2014 10:26 pm Posts: 20418 Location: Where they shot Knock at the Cabin
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Re: Wonder Woman daily predictions/discussion
Jack Sparrow wrote: I think I got too excited with its weekend numbers. If it gets a drop similar to last Monday it will do $7.4m so yeah my initial thought of easy $8m is not as easy. If it crosses $8m then with a 22% (similar to first Tuesday) it gets $9.76m now the increase this Tuesday will surely be a bit better but the Monday drop might not be as good. But you never know the Sunday was just too brilliant and big, makes it difficult to predict Monday. There are far more schools out now.
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Tue Jun 13, 2017 7:32 am |
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