Finally someone else here who is predicting 12 million!

Did people really expect Hidalgo to make, like, $25+ million last year?

Seriously, Sahara looks good, but it has a pretty unknown cast, underwhelming trailers, and an alright release date. I have serious doubts of this movie crossing $20 million. Fever Pitch has a better chance.

It looks good? Dear god, am I the only one who thinks this movie looks atrocious? I seriously don't think there's a worse-looking movie (to me, at least) coming out for the next few months.

Also, that hilarious "Directed by Breck Eisner!" screamed out at you at the end of the trailer...

It must be a good film if Michael Eisner's son is helming it.

Along with Sin City. :wink: Now, let's just forget The Ring Two.

1. Fever Pitch- $17,000,000
2. Sin City- $15,000,000
3. Sahara- $13,000,000
4. Beauty Shop- $7,500,000

SAHARA looks really really crap. And i'v heard no hype. The TV SPOTS remind me of FLIGHT OF THE PHOENIX....yack.


FEVER PITCH has had alot of advertising, and it's trailers been getting great reactions.


And after all the horrors and sci fi violent movies, i rekon america needs anothe big rom com, after HITCH is fading now.

- I think Sahara has more appeal then Hidalgo - VM / the horse / the race - didn't hold alot of pull for the whole audience.

- I think Sahara will do worse than National Treasure but better than Hidalgo

Big questions - are these people really BO draws - yes they will get the ones that go to opening weekend but not alot more IMO.

- Matthew McConaughey - ? =
Penélope Cruz - ? =
Steve Zahn - ? =

If word had been that Sahara was this awful film, I'd agree with you guys. But is anyone else reading the reviews? They're amazing! People say that this is the closest anyone has come to recreating the magic of Indiana Jones. If that's the popular opinion, I don't see how this can bomb. The trailer isn't great thanks to terrible editing via Paramount, but I've seen it non-stop and the TV ads have been a huge improvement. And I don't really think it's a no name cast by any means, Matthew McConaughey's last movie was the 100+ million How to Lose a Guy in Ten Days, whose ads were based entirely on him and Kate Hudson's chemistry. Timeline and Flight of the Phoenix were shuffled all around to try and find a good spot, whereas when Sahara's release date became April 8th Universal and Sony immediately pulled out there completed films opening that weekend (Unleashed and The Cave). Definitely a good sign there.

Argh, I'm sick of this "recreating the magic of Indiana Jones". Exactly that was it what got my hopes up on National Treasure and when I saw it I was pretty disappointed. There won't be a movie to really come close to Indy.

Anyway, as far as box-office goes, I think it looks a bit similar to Flight of the Phoenix and Matthew McConaughey is not a box-office draw by himself. National Treasure had the "From the producer of Pirates of the Caribbean" as well as Nicholas Cage going for it. Heck, even Hidalgo had Viggo Mortensen of fresh LOTR fame. Sahara is the first adventure flick in a while and that will help it, as well as probably decent reviews, but we all know thow well sports films usually do domesticaly. Well Fever Pitch is one combined with a romcom, even better. The high theatre count of 3,000 will help Sahara, but I don't see it breaking $20 million this weekend.

My predictions:

1. Fever Pitch - $20.2 million
2. Sahara - $16 million
3. Sin City - $12.8 million
4. Guess Who - $8.5 million
5. Beauty Shop - $7.9 million
6. Robots - $6.2 million
7. Miss Congeniality 2: Armed and Fabulous - $5.2 million
8. The Pacifier - $3.8 million
9. The Ring Two - $3.5 million
10. The Upside of Anger - $2.8 million

Just my opinion, but I thought National Treasure was easily better then any of the Indiana Jones films.

BTW, King Arthur was widely promoted as being from the producer of Pirates of the Caribbean. :wink:

King Arthur suffered from the same fate as Troy and Alexander. Historical "epics" are rarely ever well-received in the USA.

Sin City:

17.64m -40%

BJ, if it dropped 13% on Saturday, there's just no way it'll drop by 40%. It's just not going to happen, as much as we might want it to.

Anyway, I expect Fever Pitch to be #1.

I feel the drop was do to the friday fronloading, but i expect it to level out like Kill Bill Vol. 1 did. Kill Bill did not have as large of a fanboy fanbase which led to the smaller saturday drop. Now that all the fanboys have seen Sin City I expect the curious movie goers to come now, especialy with the great WOM that Sin City is getting. I will move it to a 45% drop though, your right about 40% being to small.

Im not sure what Fever Pitch can do but I dont expect it to open over 20m, Im thinking in the 15m-19m range with some good legs after opening. So I expect the Sin City and Fever Pitch to be the leading movies next wknd.

There is absolutely no way for Sin City to drop just 40%. Absolutely no chance. It'll perform more like Kill Bill Vol. 2 than Kill Bill Vol. 1.

If Sin City had opened to less than $20 million with an increase on Saturday, I could have seen a 40% second weekend drop.

A 14% drop on Saturday is surely a big sign of being frontloaded. Sin City will drop 55% atleast.

1. Fever Pitch - $23.5 million
2. Sahara - $13 million
3. Sin City - $12.9 million
4. Guess Who - $8 million
5. Beauty Shop - $7.5 million
6. Robots - $6.7million
7. Miss Congeniality 2: Armed and Fabulous - $5.4 million
8. The Pacifier - $4 million
9. The Ring Two - $3.1 million
10. The Upside of Anger - $3.2 million

Well I do think a lot of the drop was from basketball, but it still shows a 40% drop ain't happening. I don't think it'll drop more then 55% next weekend though thanks to not a lot of new competition.

Fever Pitch~ 20 million
Sahara~ 17 million
Sin City~ 13.5 million

The last thing I should be doing is defending any hack directors but Breck Eisner didnt do too bad of a job directing the few episodes of "Taken".

I'm starting to rethink Sin City's drop. It had the smallest decrease on Sunday, which supports my thought that it had such a bad Saturday decline from the Final Four (is it any coincidence that movies have for the past three weekends?), but that won't be happening again this weekend. And the WOM is insanely good aroudn my school. I have not talked to a single person that didn't really like that movie, and LITERALLY 9 out of 10 people said it was one of the all time coolest or best movies they had ever seen, and were talking about it to everyone.

WOM didnt help Kill Bill's drop either. Sin City is bound to be frontloaded so Im still expecting a 55% drop

Then again, Kill Bill Vol. 2 fell even less than Sin City on its first Sunday, as far as I can recall and yet had a huge drop in its second weekend.

Sunday and Monday drops tend to have alot to do with demographics. R rated movies like Sin City tend to have relatively high weekday numbers at this time of the year, so they hold up well on Sunday and Monday.

Well you guys are ignoring what I saying about the WOM though. Guys, I'm serious: It's fucking out of this world how much high schoolers are loving this, and the word is definitely spreading. Kill Bill it was about 1 out of four people that hated it, 1 out of 4 that LOVED it, and the other two liked it but not much more from what I saw, though Vol. 2 got worse WOM, I think because of it being considered talky and boring. But I still have yet to find ANYONE who didn't like Sin City at my school, and almost everyone was blown away by how great it was. The drops have some relevance I believe, but that's not all I'm saying guys, don't act like it is. :razz:

Let me point you to Dawn of the Dead. That had good WOM didnt it but dropped 55% the next week