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misterglass
Iron Man
Joined: Sat Oct 23, 2004 12:56 pm
Posts: 678
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I think Dawn of the Dead and CHainsaw Massacre aren't valid comparisons..they were both major studio remakes with a certain namebrand value among moviegoers. Saw doesn't have that. I think it could do okay, but not that well. I can't even imagine theatre owners giving it many screens, even with Halloween coming up because there's no real stars or anything to sell it beyond the premise. I think the best comparison at this point is Darkness Falls..but without the all-important PG13
Can't remmeber what I said eralier, but I still think under $15 million opening weekend.
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misterglass/NYC
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| Mon Oct 25, 2004 10:17 am |
 
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Jeff
Christian's #1 Fan
Joined: Sat Oct 23, 2004 8:25 pm
Posts: 28110
Location: Awaiting my fate
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I'm not quite certain how Saw will do. It should do well due to Halloween and the (so far) excellent reviews. However, it seems a bit too "indie" or "strange" for many mainstream audiences. I'm going to predict $12-$15 million opening weekend, but excellent legs and $40-$50 million overall.
_________________
See above.
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| Mon Oct 25, 2004 10:06 pm |
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Dr. Lecter
You must have big rats
Joined: Sat Oct 16, 2004 4:28 pm
Posts: 92093
Location: Bonn, Germany
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Opening weekend:
Joseba B-Loki - $8 million
BOYFRESH - $8.1 million
micasey300 - $8.9 million
Plot - $10 million
Terminator1997 - $10.1 million
matatonio - $12 million
Snickety Snack 2 - $12.3 million
coasterman2002 - $12.8 million
lovemerox - $13 million
trixster - $13.5 million
mansonmyers - $13.5 million
rhyno - $15.1 million
Zingaling - $16.5 million
hans - $16.5 million
Algren - $17 million
Dr. Lecter - $17.3 million
Animosity Reigns - $19.2 million
Killuminati510 - $19.5 million
Total gross:
Joseba B-Loki - $20 million
mansonmyers - $36 million
micasey300 - $36.5 million
BOYFRESH - $37 million
Snickety Snack 2 - $37 million
coasterman2002 - $39.6 million
trixster - $40 million
matatonio - $40 million
rhyno - $46 million
Zingaling - $46.2 million
Dr. Lecter - $46.5 million
lovemerox - $47 million
Killuminati510 - $50.4 million
Terminator1997 - $51.7 million
Animosity Reigns - $60+ million
hans - $66-70 million
Algren - $68 million
_________________The greatest thing on earth is to love and to be loved in return!
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| Tue Oct 26, 2004 5:46 pm |
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zingy
College Boy Z
Joined: Mon Oct 11, 2004 8:40 pm
Posts: 36662
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http://www.comingsoon.net/weekendwarrior/2004/oct29.php
Saw will be in about 2,500 theaters.
New predictions..
Opening- $17.8
Total- $53.4
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| Tue Oct 26, 2004 9:22 pm |
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DP07
The Thirteenth Floor
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 2:26 am
Posts: 15553
Location: Everywhere
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I'm going to predict that it tanks. The marketing campaign is extremely weak both in terms of the number of ads on TV, and also in terms of the quality of those ads. This falls far short of Open Water in both those areas. I haven't seen the trailer play even once at theaters, and I've hardly seen any ads on TV. The ad I saw during the World Series didn't seemed like it had the ability to grab anyone's attention.
7.2m (I think I'm being generous, it could easily be under 50m IMO)
Total: 15m
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| Tue Oct 26, 2004 9:41 pm |
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matatonio
Teh Mexican
Joined: Fri Oct 15, 2004 11:56 pm
Posts: 26066
Location: In good ol' Mexico
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im changing my prediction
$16.1M/$47M
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| Thu Oct 28, 2004 8:49 pm |
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Jeff
Christian's #1 Fan
Joined: Sat Oct 23, 2004 8:25 pm
Posts: 28110
Location: Awaiting my fate
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I've actually lowered my predictions to $13.0 million, just because I think it isn't going to be the type of film most people will go to see. I do expect good legs for it though.
_________________
See above.
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| Thu Oct 28, 2004 10:51 pm |
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Dr. Lecter
You must have big rats
Joined: Sat Oct 16, 2004 4:28 pm
Posts: 92093
Location: Bonn, Germany
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My FINAL predictions:
Opening weekend - $16.6 million
Total gross - $46.3 million
_________________The greatest thing on earth is to love and to be loved in return!
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| Thu Oct 28, 2004 11:41 pm |
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Dr. Lecter
You must have big rats
Joined: Sat Oct 16, 2004 4:28 pm
Posts: 92093
Location: Bonn, Germany
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 Opening weekend:
DP07 - $7.2 million
Joseba B-Loki - $8 million
BOYFRESH - $8.1 million
micasey300 - $9.6 million
Plot - $10 million
Terminator1997 - $10.1 million
Snickety Snack 2 - $12.3 million
coasterman2002 - $12.8 million
lovemerox - $13 million
RogueCommander - $13 million
trixster - $13.5 million
mansonmyers - $13.5 million
rhyno - $15.1 million
matatonio - $16.1 million
hans - $16.5 million
Dr. Lecter - $16.6 million
Algren - $17 million
Zingaling - $17.8 million
Animosity Reigns - $19.2 million
Killuminati510 - $19.5 million
Total gross:
DP07 - $15 million
Joseba B-Loki - $20 million
micasey300 - $24 million
mansonmyers - $36 million
BOYFRESH - $37 million
Snickety Snack 2 - $37 million
coasterman2002 - $39.6 million
trixster - $40 million
rhyno - $46 million
Dr. Lecter - $46.3 million
lovemerox - $47 million
matatonio - $47 million
Killuminati510 - $50.4 million
Terminator1997 - $51.7 million
Zingaling - $53.4 million
Animosity Reigns - $60+ million
hans - $66-70 million
Algren - $68 million
_________________The greatest thing on earth is to love and to be loved in return!
Last edited by Dr. Lecter on Fri Oct 29, 2004 12:00 am, edited 1 time in total.
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| Thu Oct 28, 2004 11:44 pm |
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MGKC
---------
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 10:42 pm
Posts: 11808
Location: Kansas City, Kansas
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Final prediction:
Opening: $9.6 million
Total: $24 million
The Grudge is going to take away its audience that was looking for a good scary movie. Saw is only going to get the true horror fans.
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| Thu Oct 28, 2004 11:49 pm |
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The Scottie
King Albert!
Joined: Sun Oct 17, 2004 1:04 pm
Posts: 11838
Location: The Happiest City on Earth
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My predictions.
12.1 million opening.
31.0 million closing.
_________________Visit My Youtube Account and here is what you will see.    and many more.
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| Fri Oct 29, 2004 2:11 am |
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xiayun
Extraordinary
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 3:41 pm
Posts: 25109
Location: San Mateo, CA
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15/39. There is enough buzz to push its PTA to $6500 range, although being rated-R could hurt it and help The Grudge and Ray.
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| Fri Oct 29, 2004 2:38 am |
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STEVE ROGERS
The Greatest Avenger EVER
Joined: Fri Oct 29, 2004 4:02 am
Posts: 18501
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Well, if The Grudge can make 40 Million in it's opening weekend, then SAW shouldn't have no problem possibly matching it.. I mean they marketed it for release on Halloween and with that, it has basically 1 weekend to do what it's gonna do before this gets the plug pulled on it.. You know how it is?? After Halloween, the general public begins focusing on feel good holiday movies for the entire family and some dude hacking through his ankle with a(pardon the pun) SAW, doesn't exactly bring in Yuletide greetings.. 
_________________http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2dmXF3CE04A This kills TDKR At the box office next summer.. Get used to this
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| Fri Oct 29, 2004 5:16 am |
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zingy
College Boy Z
Joined: Mon Oct 11, 2004 8:40 pm
Posts: 36662
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Final Predictions...
Opening- $17.5
Total- $52.5
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| Fri Oct 29, 2004 6:48 am |
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insomniacdude
I just lost the game
Joined: Wed Oct 13, 2004 7:00 pm
Posts: 5868
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14/46
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| Fri Oct 29, 2004 7:07 am |
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Cotton
Some days I'm a super bitch
Joined: Sun Oct 24, 2004 7:22 pm
Posts: 6645
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9.1 / 26.7
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| Fri Oct 29, 2004 8:17 am |
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Dr. Lecter
You must have big rats
Joined: Sat Oct 16, 2004 4:28 pm
Posts: 92093
Location: Bonn, Germany
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UPDATED PREDICTIONS LIST
Opening weekend:
DP07 - $7.2 million
Joseba B-Loki - $8 million
BOYFRESH - $8.1 million
Cotton - $9.1 million
micasey300 - $9.6 million
Plot - $10 million
Terminator1997 - $10.1 million
Scott Vasquez - $12.1 million
Snickety Snack 2 - $12.3 million
coasterman2002 - $12.8 million
lovemerox - $13 million
RogueCommander - $13 million
trixster - $13.5 million
mansonmyers - $13.5 million
Insomniacdude - $14 million
xiayun - $15 million
rhyno - $15.1 million
matatonio - $16.1 million
hans - $16.5 million
Dr. Lecter - $16.6 million
Algren - $17 million
Zingaling - $17.5 million
Animosity Reigns - $19.2 million
Killuminati510 - $19.5 million
Total gross:
DP07 - $15 million
Joseba B-Loki - $20 million
micasey300 - $24 million
Cotton - $26.7 million
Scott Vasquez - $31 million
mansonmyers - $36 million
BOYFRESH - $37 million
Snickety Snack 2 - $37 million
xiayun - $39 million
coasterman2002 - $39.6 million
trixster - $40 million
rhyno - $46 million
Insomniacdude - $46 million
Dr. Lecter - $46.3 million
lovemerox - $47 million
matatonio - $47 million
Killuminati510 - $50.4 million
Terminator1997 - $51.7 million
Zingaling - $52.5 million
Animosity Reigns - $60+ million
hans - $66-70 million
Algren - $68 million
_________________The greatest thing on earth is to love and to be loved in return!
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| Fri Oct 29, 2004 10:10 am |
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Dr. Lecter
You must have big rats
Joined: Sat Oct 16, 2004 4:28 pm
Posts: 92093
Location: Bonn, Germany
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Rottentomatoes Rating - 54%
IMDB Rating - 7.6/10
Metacritic Score - 42/100
_________________The greatest thing on earth is to love and to be loved in return!
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| Fri Oct 29, 2004 11:01 am |
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Samweis Gamdschie
Cream of the Crop
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 2:35 pm
Posts: 2077
Location: At the edge of reality
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Opening: 10m
Total Gross: 26m
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| Fri Oct 29, 2004 4:19 pm |
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Anonymous
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$11.1m/$24.1m
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| Fri Oct 29, 2004 4:21 pm |
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Dr. Lecter
You must have big rats
Joined: Sat Oct 16, 2004 4:28 pm
Posts: 92093
Location: Bonn, Germany
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UPDATED PREDICTIONS LIST
Opening weekend:
DP07 - $7.2 million
Joseba B-Loki - $8 million
BOYFRESH - $8.1 million
Cotton - $9.1 million
micasey300 - $9.6 million
Plot - $10 million
Samweis Gamdschie - $10 million
Terminator1997 - $10.1 million
Nebs - $11.1 million
Scott Vasquez - $12.1 million
Snickety Snack 2 - $12.3 million
coasterman2002 - $12.8 million
lovemerox - $13 million
RogueCommander - $13 million
trixster - $13.5 million
mansonmyers - $13.5 million
Insomniacdude - $14 million
xiayun - $15 million
rhyno - $15.1 million
matatonio - $16.1 million
hans - $16.5 million
Dr. Lecter - $16.6 million
Algren - $17 million
Zingaling - $17.5 million
Animosity Reigns - $19.2 million
Killuminati510 - $19.5 million
Total gross:
DP07 - $15 million
Joseba B-Loki - $20 million
micasey300 - $24 million
Nebs - $24.1 million
Samweis Gamdschie - $26 million
Cotton - $26.7 million
Scott Vasquez - $31 million
mansonmyers - $36 million
BOYFRESH - $37 million
Snickety Snack 2 - $37 million
xiayun - $39 million
coasterman2002 - $39.6 million
trixster - $40 million
rhyno - $46 million
Insomniacdude - $46 million
Dr. Lecter - $46.3 million
lovemerox - $47 million
matatonio - $47 million
Killuminati510 - $50.4 million
Terminator1997 - $51.7 million
Zingaling - $52.5 million
Animosity Reigns - $60+ million
hans - $66-70 million
Algren - $68 million
RT rating - 53%
IMDB Rating - 7.6/10
Metacritic Score - 43
Yahoo Rating - B
_________________The greatest thing on earth is to love and to be loved in return!
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| Fri Oct 29, 2004 8:53 pm |
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BacktotheFuture
I'm Batman
Joined: Mon Oct 11, 2004 8:53 pm
Posts: 5554
Location: Long Island
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Opening-17.2 Mil
Final-40.1 Mil
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| Fri Oct 29, 2004 9:01 pm |
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Dr. Lecter
You must have big rats
Joined: Sat Oct 16, 2004 4:28 pm
Posts: 92093
Location: Bonn, Germany
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PREDICTIONS LIST
Opening weekend:
DP07 - $7.2 million
Joseba B-Loki - $8 million
BOYFRESH - $8.1 million
Cotton - $9.1 million
micasey300 - $9.6 million
Plot - $10 million
Samweis Gamdschie - $10 million
Terminator1997 - $10.1 million
Nebs - $11.1 million
Scott Vasquez - $12.1 million
Snickety Snack 2 - $12.3 million
coasterman2002 - $12.8 million
lovemerox - $13 million
RogueCommander - $13 million
trixster - $13.5 million
mansonmyers - $13.5 million
Insomniacdude - $14 million
xiayun - $15 million
rhyno - $15.1 million
matatonio - $16.1 million
hans - $16.5 million
Dr. Lecter - $16.6 million
Algren - $17 million
BacktotheFuture - $17.2 million
Zingaling - $17.5 million
Animosity Reigns - $19.2 million
Killuminati510 - $19.5 million
Total gross:
DP07 - $15 million
Joseba B-Loki - $20 million
micasey300 - $24 million
Nebs - $24.1 million
Samweis Gamdschie - $26 million
Cotton - $26.7 million
Scott Vasquez - $31 million
mansonmyers - $36 million
BOYFRESH - $37 million
Snickety Snack 2 - $37 million
xiayun - $39 million
coasterman2002 - $39.6 million
trixster - $40 million
BacktotheFuture - $40.1 million
rhyno - $46 million
Insomniacdude - $46 million
Dr. Lecter - $46.3 million
lovemerox - $47 million
matatonio - $47 million
Killuminati510 - $50.4 million
Terminator1997 - $51.7 million
Zingaling - $52.5 million
Animosity Reigns - $60+ million
hans - $66-70 million
Algren - $68 million
RT rating - 47%
IMDB Rating - 7.6/10
Metacritic Score - 43
Yahoo Rating - B
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A lot of underpredicting happened! Apparently, it will be between Animosity Reigns and Killuminati510 for the closes opening weekend prediction. Well done, guys!
_________________The greatest thing on earth is to love and to be loved in return!
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| Sat Oct 30, 2004 10:47 pm |
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STEVE ROGERS
The Greatest Avenger EVER
Joined: Fri Oct 29, 2004 4:02 am
Posts: 18501
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Re: Saw Predictions Thread - Opening Day - $6,800,000 Dr. Lecter wrote: Well, I have seen this movie and the only thing I can say about it, is that it is amazing. However, I am not sure if it will get broader audiences, as the content of the movie is very gruesome and gritty. However, the Halloween weekend will definitely help its opening weekend and the marketing so far has been nothing short of amazing. Especially the first teaser trailers were very well-made and impressive. I am negatively surprised that this one is only opening in ~1800 theatres, though. I hope the final number will be higher. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Clips/Trailers:Teaser 1:http://download.ifilm.com/qt/portal/2642103_200.movTeaser 2:http://lionsgate.arcostream.net/lionsga ... 00Kbps.wmvTrailer:http://www.apple.com/trailers/lions_gate/saw/large.htmlFilm Clips:http://www.cinemovies.fr/fiche_extrait.php?IDfilm=6567------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- My predictions are at the moment:Opening weekend - $15.2 million Total gross - $42.4 million What are yours?What are yours? I mean it's Halloween for heaven sakes.. You would think it would open higher given that fact.. How the hell did The Grudge make so damn much?? Is this movie really that good or did the rating have something to do with it??_________________http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2dmXF3CE04A This kills TDKR At the box office next summer.. Get used to this
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| Sun Oct 31, 2004 1:46 am |
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Dr. Lecter
You must have big rats
Joined: Sat Oct 16, 2004 4:28 pm
Posts: 92093
Location: Bonn, Germany
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Re: Saw Predictions Thread - Opening Day - $6,800,000 BKB_The_Man wrote: I'm shocked that this film didn't match "The Grudge" box office #'s and will open considerably lower than The "Grudge".. I mean it's Halloween for heaven sakes.. You would think it would open higher given that fact.. How the hell did The Grudge make so damn much?? Is this movie really that good or did the rating have something to do with it?? The Grudge had very much going for it. First of all, movies opening the weekend before Halloween are usually better off than the ones that open directly on Halloween. And the many other reasons:
1. The Grudge had no horror competition to go up against when it opened. SAW had to deal with The Grudge which was coming off a huge weekend.
2. The Grudge has Sarah Michelle Gellar who definitely attracted many people from her Buffy fanbase. The Grudge had a major teen factor going for it whereas SAW is more of an adult movie and SAW has no real stars. I mean Danny Glover is its biggest star, hehe.
3. The Grudge reminded people of The Ring. The Ring was a huge success with amazing WoM, good reviews and it was overall beloved. People knew that The Grudge is also a remake of an Asian horror movie, so they flocked to the theatres to see it. _________________The greatest thing on earth is to love and to be loved in return!
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| Sun Oct 31, 2004 2:28 pm |
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