So, what movie is everyone having a tough time reading?

For me, its Memoirs of a Geisha. I remember thinking it would break 200 million at one point. Mostly because I thought its a huge NYT bestseller, and because Wantanabe and especially Ziyi actually have a relatively huge fan-base here. Then all this new information came up about language problems, and poor casting decisions. I still have zero clue if this will be a big hit or not (for an epic drama and potential Oscar movie). Everyweek my view on if it'll be a success or not changes.

The other one that's hard for me to put a finger on is Hitchhikers Guide. On the one hand, it has a huge book fanclub, which will mean a 40 million opener at least. That could see POTC type interest spark. Big surprise opener = people that hadn't considered checking it out will. It also has had an incredibly smart trailer/promotional campaign. On the other hand, its British humor, sci-fi, and is just a bit kookie. It won't bomb, but on the other hand it might not be a top 5 grosser like I think it could be. I thought it would do fabulously well, but people brought up good points about if it has broader appeal due to its sense of humor. Big prediction range, anywhere between 150 million to 75 million for me. Geisha is along the same lines, but for all I know, may struggle to break 50 considering some of the complications now associated with it.

Those are the two toughest to read right now. ROTS will break 300 million. Its still a tough call on if it will be larger than that, could break Spiderman even, but its not as questionable to me.

War of the World is Spielberg/Cruise. Even for the type of movie it is, I think it'll break 200 million, and feels pretty secure.

I'm wondering where the surprise big grosser (Shrek 2 type) or surprise bomb (Alamo, Around the World in 80 Days) is going to come from too.

I would say Bewitched, and Harry Potter

I agree about Hitchhiker. I can see it doing anything from 75 to 200 total, depending how what mood people are in and what kind of ads and reviews it gets. Hitchhiker's best chance is to have great word of mouth and try to fill the surprise hit niche. More than most summer movies, its fate will rest in how well made it is - or isn't. In Hitchhiker's favor: it is a comedy and that's what people want in the summer. British humor may seem obscure but with Spamalot looking to soon take the Producer's crown as the king of Broadway, Americans are growing accustomed to that style of wit.

Another unpredictable one to me is The Island, it could break out and be a big hit, or just fizzle.

And then there's Kingdom of Heaven. Ridley Scott knows action, he's great at it. But can Orlando Bloom carry a movie like this? Orlando has his good aspects but he lacks gravitas. And doesn't the trailer seem limp to many? It may suffer from having no easy connection for an American to grasp onto, not much we can identify with. With Gladiator, Americans are used to comparisons between the US and Rome; with Alien, it was a horror movie with a woman in distress; Blade Runner, a 40s style noir detective story set in the future. Will Americans care about the Crusades? There's reason to doubt they will. But Ridley Scott has that X factor, he can periodically surprise us and maybe he will, I won't count this movie out until I see more clips and trailers.

for me, Charlie and the Chocolate Factory

My opinions.

Kingdom of Heaven - Big name director, event like movie, but lack of starpower.
Herbie Fully Loaded - It will attract families, but can it attract babybooming teens and adults.
Hitchhicker - Event Sci Fi pic, or just a family pic, who knows.
Bewitched - Reconizable cast, but could adapting a classic sitcom lead to bad buzz? Let's see the trailer.
Charlie and the Chocolate Factory - Usual mid range performer (like most Burton movies do), or Blockbuster. Trailer seems to be over the top for the usual family movir.
Corpse Bride - like Charlie, can it expand it's fanbase.
Narnia - Can go anywhere between Lemony Snickets, and Harry Potter.

These will be the most interesting movies to predict, and more interesting where they actually go.

Bewitched? :-s I've never heard of it. Who's in it? *edit* Is this the new one with Ashwarya Rai*
Harry Potter, I'm pretty sure the franchise is going to continue to slowly decrease in gross. Even though they've decided to breathe new life into it by switching up directors, each movie is making a little less than the one before it, and there was pretty good critical love for HP3. It could surprise, but I still expect it to make just about 20-30 million less than HP3, and don't really see the franchise doing a 180 and having one of the later installments out gross the first two.

Yes, Hitchhikers is weird. I remember someone saying British humor is an aquired taste, and that not everyone is into it, but that Spamalot comment is good. That and I think the US has aquired the taste more than we think with our love of Monty Python and the stuff Hugh Grant was doing awhile ago like About a Boy. 200 million? I guess I could se that too. It seems like a good mix of action and humor, so could go the route of the big surprise two summers ago, Pirates of the Carribean. It doesn't have the same star-studded cast (woooo Depp, Knightly, Bloom, and Rush, that's packed). But I also think from the trailers that they tones down the British humor, and introduced Mos Def, which could work for its advantage. Can't tell about this one at all.
Kindom of Heaven I don't have that much trouble reading. Mostly because I think Will Americans be into the Crusades? I think no. Scott or no Scott, King Arthur, the remake of The Four Feathers, and other recent medieval epics just aren't making a big dent BO-wise. Bloom still calls to a certain crowd, and its not 50 year old guys.

Mark, good point about Charlie and the Chocolate Factory. Its got nostalgia and Depp going for it, but I saw the trailer, and it looks horrible. Might get 100 million, might also struggle to break 35.

Chocolate Factory's trailer looks horrible....and weird., Depp looks bad....and Gay...yeah....
i can see it breaking the $100M but not by to much

I'd have to agree on Charlie and the Chocolate Factory.

It just looks so... so crappy. I don't know whether kids will like the colors or have nightmares from the trailer alone.

Bolded are my picks ... Narnia would be included ... but I really trust that disney wants this as a tentpole and thus will spend uber ammounts of money to make sure they protect the investment.

I think Corpse Bride will underpreform ... and I don't think it will be a suprise.

Charlie and the Coco Factory could be the PotC of the summer and it wouldn't supprise me one bit.

My immediate thought is Memoirs of a Geisha. It could gross anywhere from 20 to 80M, depending on the pre-release buzz and how it fares with the awards. A lot of other good choices have been mentioned as well. I also think depending on how Sony advertise it, how many screens it can get, and how well Chow's humor is accepted by the audience, Kung-Fu Hustle could be a mini breakout film and gross 20M or retreat from theaters rather quickly and end with 5M.

Well I'll be.

I think theres a clear winner in this category.

Batman Begins.

Why do i say that? Well this is how my mind works.

Lets take Return of the Sith.

There is no doubt in my mind that Return of the Sith will make less than 250 million. Absolutely positively guaranteed. No way it will ever happen.
There is no way Return of the Sith is outgrossing Phantom Menace.

See where I'm going with this. My range for Return of the Sith is 275 million to 405 Million. There is no way its grossing anywhere outside of this. If it makes 280 million, I'll be disappointed, if it makes 260 million, i'll be WHAT THE F!!. What I just stated is my absolute range for ROTS. My guess for its actual gross is somewhere between 310 and 360 though. Thats my reasonable range. It has an outside chance to anything else.

Harry Potter (and this is ofcourse my personal opinion).
Absolute Range 220 - 280 million
Reasonable Range: 225 to 260 million
Lesser difference here


Begins to me is just tooooooo unpredictable. Before, if Batman topped out at 110 million, I would have been soooooooooo disappointed but not shocked. Come on .. theres always this sick feeling inside saying "waht is it happens).
Ofcourse, with the recent showing of comic book movies, i can even see it biting the dust by 95 million .... extremely disappointed but still not WHAT THE F!.

At the same time, Batman is too much of an icon. I can not forget its history, specially in motion pictures. If it makes 300 million, i'd be ecstatic but it wont be something i haven't considered. If it makes 350 million, same thing.

While I think the reasonable range in my head for the movie is 180 to 240 million with an outside chance of about 290, my absolute range for Begins is 95 million to 360 million.

The chances of anything below 150 million and anything over 275 million are waaaaaaaay minute, I still see the possibility of it getting till there.

So yea ... did that make any sense? no? thought so.

Anyhoo, Batman Begins, in terms of box office this time is to me the most unpredictable of all movies coming out this year.

Among the major films, I'd say Kingdom of Heaven and WOTW. I think KOH will do similar numbers to Troy, but I could see it disappointing considering the relatively boring trailer. On the other hand, I could see it pulling a Gladiator. As for WOTW, I could see it doing as well as Independence Day, but considering Minority Report, I wouldn't be suprised of it greatly disappoints.

ROTS and Harry Potter 4 are the most predictable IMO. Both might match the previous films in the respective franchises, perhaps outgross them slightly, although I think they are more likely to fall short.

Dolce. Bewitched is a remake of a tv show, this time starring Will Farell and Nicole Kidman.

Hans, i would say that Harry Potter is probably the easiest movie to predict. Its movie ffanbase has maxed out and its gross is neither has a chance of reducing that much nor increasing that much. Harry potter has reached saturation and will perform very consistently, in the domestic and international market .. look at a real winner for WB

I'm going to say The Lion, The Witch and the Wardrobe. Then Hitchhiker's.

I don't think Giesha will be a success... even if it is good.

I think Charlie will barely make over $100 million.

I get the distinct feeling Narnia is going to be the #1 grossing film this year. Even higher than ROTS. Even if its bad, which I don't see it being, it's still family fair. Kids can't really tell the difference bewteen a good movie and a mediocre one. I'm trying to brainstorm ways it could potentially flop, but coming off of LOTR love, I think even if it has short legs and is very front-loaded, it still can't drop below 200 million.

Batman is a tricky one too. People could be so jaded after Joel "The Butcher" Schumaker two installments that they don't even bother showing up. On the other hand, bABA is campaigning so hard for Begins that he could singlehandedly convince half the on-line world to watch it, which is at least 150 million right there.

woahza!! online community = 150 million!!!

**plans out agenda for next 2 months before Batman Release**

Narnia is so being overpredicted.

Seriously, the only way I see it making over $250 million is if it's trailer blows me away.

Bewitched
Charlie and the Chocolate Factory
King Kong
Madagascar (another Shark Tale or a Shrek?)

and...

The Amityville Horror - This has been so differently viewed here at KJ, I don't know what to expect. There's the haters and the lover.

I don't see why The Amityville Horror can't pull off The Texas Chainsaw Massacre numbers.

Yeah, I'm starting to agree with everyone on Chocolate Factory being really unpredictable. It could be the biggest flop (if those trailers aren't already odd) or it could do fairly well as a kids movie and a remake of a favorite with Depp.

Amityville looks like it could do very well. I haven't seen the original and I'm still interested in seeing this one after I saw the trailer. There is also massive saturation of Horror in the market right now, so it might not stand-out much. It has a wide range. Could do 35, could also do 90-ish (didn't AvP hit 90).

Zingy, why do you think Narnia is being overpredicted? I think its a pretty secure 200 million. Even Garfield pulled out 80, talk about a movie last year that was seriously unpredictable.

I didn't think Garfield was unpredictable. I nailed that one, actually. It was very easy to see that a kids movie with a beloved talking animal like Garfield could pull atleast $75 million during June.

But anyways, Narnia doesn't show one sign to me that it can pull $300 million. $250 million is possible, but also the maximum in my opinion. Though, I'll base a detailed prediction on it's trailer or teaser.

Do you know why there are the haters and lover for this movie?? It's because of ME and it's fun to go against the grain when it comes to me hyping a movie, which in this day and age, it's few and far between for me to get excited about any movie... Amityville will do very well folks.. You watch..

Let me put it to you like this: If back in the summer of 1999 when EPISODE I came out, if we had seen Darth Vader, The Emperor, A Multitude of Wookies, A Cameo by the Millenium Falcon, etc, then I think this movie would've propelled past 430 Million back then and actually would've have given TITANIC a run for the $$$.. It would've, but the Older fans who grew up on SW were so polarized and shocked at how drastically EPISODE I was different than what they were accustomed to seeing, that the Expectation level bottomed out and as a result, the movie was blasted because of it.. Flash forward to the Present, 2005 and what are we getting with ROTS??? The REAL EPISODE I, what the fans wanted so desperately for EPISODE I to be and wasn't... As a matter of fact, after we see this final movie, I'd be willing to bet that when you look at the BIG PICTURE, George Lucas could've probably of did away with the other 2 movies and just made ROTS and that would've been good enough.. In short: I think ROTS is gonna do phenomenal numbers this summer.. Lucas will sit here and claim that it's "Too Dark" or that it's "Not Kid Friendly" and will only make 200 Million, but come on.. What a bunch of modest bullshit that is.. It's not like Lucas is gonna come right out now on the show 60 Minutes and say that this movie will make the boatload cause by doing that, he would come across as being arrogant about it and that's not gonna happen.. 200 Million for the Final SW movie ever??? Think how odd that sounds for a movie franchise like this??? 200 Million will be accomplished in less than 2 weeks, much less the whole summer..

for now its Hitchhikers Guide to the Galaxy for BJ.

I love Johnny Depp and everything he's ever been in and I also love Tim Burton and the BATMAN movies he's done as well as others, but I have to say that what's gonna kill Charlie and the Chocolate Factory is the fact that the older audience will only recognize Gene Wilder as Willy Wonka and no one else but him.. It's just the way it is and as a result, I think this movie will not do well.. The Curiosity factor will play into this the 1st weekend, but based on the trailers, it just looks so radically weird and so radically different than what we grew up with, the older audience that is.. Gene Wilder made this role and Depp is gonna have some awfully large shoes to fill with this..