If 2004 is a year of horror movies, I think that 2005 is a year of romantic comedy. (even THE WEDDING DATE is doing well.)


Trailer
http://www.mtv.com/shared/movies/interv ... _12_03_04/

My prediction:
20/80

Isn't 2005 the year of horror movies, so far? :razz:

Anyways, it'll do decent.

Opening Weekend: $14 million
Total Gross: $46.2 million

Yeah, it looks like High Fidelity dumbed down. But I'll take my Fidelity however I can get it. 14/50

This movie will probably be helped by the rabid fan base of the Red Sox, in addition to the starpower of Drew Barrymore. Let us not forget this is the same actress who headlined Never Been Kissed ($55M) and Ever After ($65M) into higher-than-expected grosses.

I think Fever Pitch will perform solidly. A $20M opening and a $55-60M total, perhaps.

Also, let's not forget who directed the movie. That would be the Farrelly Brothers, who also directed hits like Dumb and Dumber and There's Something About Mary. I think this will be one of their midrange hits, like Shallow Hal.

It's releasing in about two weeks, so... bump.

Opening: $16.8M
Total Gross: $55.4M

It won't do too well, the trailers are underwhelming and terrible.

$15M/$40M

Don't forget that Drew Barrymore was also in Duplex, and that was a big bomb.

Let's see.

Baseball season coming up to get people in the mood - check

Drew Barrymore in a romantic comedy - check

Farrelly brothers - check

Competition - could be a problem

19/68

$14M-$18M
$39M-$55M

The main problem in this film is that it takes an audience that is notoriously against sport and places them in a movie basically about sport.

If theres one thing that WILL turn off audiences it will be that

Notoriously against sport?

Opening: $20.4
BO Total: $65.7

It all depends on how well this movie is recieved by the public. From the trailers, I think they are trying to appeal to the romantic comedy audience, more than the sports audience, and that is a very smart thing to do.

Also, the competiton this movie will have to face is Sin City, which opens the week before, and Sahara, which opens the same week as Fever Pitch. I don't think Sahara is going to be that big of a problem, but Sin City might be on it's second weekend.

Opening: $14.3
Total: $35.0

Seems like it could bomb, but it's been getting good overall reactions...

Meh!, im not all that excited about this one, but it looks......cute.......but i can see clearly a $20M opening!

$21M/$51M

Instead of getting into an argument about how women aren't notoriously against sport [i was generalizing] ill say this.

People on box office websites tend to morally object to the idea that they are grouped/ generalised as part of a demographic. Movie studios use sterotypes to form their marketing and movies - the majority rules and people who are not in a majority love expressing outrage at the implication that all women hate sports; that all African American people like rap movies, that all teenage boys wanna see Angelina Jolies breasts or whatever, when of course there is no implication - theres the facts, theres audience groupings and thats what studios base profits upon.

People really need to come to terms that when someone generalises on a box office website they are looking at the bigger picture; they arent sitting saying "All women ever hate sport" they are saying that a movie with lots of sport will not appeal to the "typical" woman; of course there are lots of women who like sport - but the general targeted audience who go see romantic comedies are not interested in seeing a Baseball game.

I think that the issue of demographic labelling is something that should be widely adressed in box office websites; because its a big part of the reasoning behind studios releasing films; but people get so easily offended by the ethos that studios use that they almost like to ignore it. Classic groupings of the audience seem to offend some on a deeply personal level; they dont like the idea that studios are making a film to pick them out.

I hate to think this will do well, but the trailer did get laughs when I saw it.

15m/48m

Well Fever Pitch is doing some good holdover buisness, so who knows.
Its interesting to note though that Fever Pitch did really very shoddily in its opening frame [it has THE lowest PTA ever for the top 145 widest releases] ; not much of a deal was made about it. Anyone remember in 2004 when "13 Going on 30" opened second place with a $21m bow? People were proclaiming that Jennifer Garner was box office poison because it didnt top $25m and the chart... But no such criticisms dumped on Drew Barrymore this year, it seems. Infact, theres been no hoopla at all over its misfire at the box office, which is quite the opposite of last year, perhaps becuase "13" was against Denzels "Man On Fire" and it seems that Mr Washington has quite a following on these sites?

It will take a big theater drop to find out if Fever Pitch has what it takes to stick around.

Let me think...did you see the predictions for Fever Pitch when it came out and the predictions for 13 Going on 30 when it came out? Barely any predictions for Fever Pitch topped $20 million while the predictions for 13 Going on 30 were mostly $25+ million...

And what was even worse in 13 Going on 30's case is its second weekend drop which was by far and away higher than Fever Pitch's...

so basically the difference is everyone expected Fever Pitch to dissapoint, whilst 13 was expected to be a massive superhit? Fever Pitch didnt have a big $24m+ hit opening the week after, and if it DID drop more than 13 then god knows its pta would have practically been non-existent. There are way too many conditionals in the box office fanboy world, it gives me a headache

The reason behind your post I replied to was your fanboyism towards Garner

For some reason, in scanning the post - that really stood out.

Other than seeing that - not much else to say.

- I don't think anyone thought Fever Pitch would disappoint or be a super hit - it isn't a super slap stick movie.

I thought it would have an average OK BO.

- And come on - other than yourself - who really thought that JG's 13 would be a super-hit? And even Massive ??????

Well i didnt think it would be a super hit, i thought it could pull off at least a $27m opening and a $85m+ close.
But the fact that Fever Pitch has performed shockingly for a picture in over 3,200 sites and goes relatively un-noticed at doing it says a lot.

But you were not alone expecting 13 Going on 30 to be big. Even the derby average was over $25 million. Much unlike Fever Pitch...