KJ's Spring Box Office Contest 2012



As the late 2011 winter game wraps up (Oscar boost for some films this weeekend!), it's time for the Spring Box Office Contest which has some very promising releases! It will cover movies released from March 2nd through April 29th, 2011. The winner will receive a $25 gift card.

There are 10 box office questions asking various box office questions covering which movie released in December will be the biggest to what will be the highest grossing Best Picture nominee of the holiday season. Once again, these questions cover movies released between March 2nd through April 29th, 2012.

Next, you will predict what will be the top 5 grossing movies of the spring season. Not one person has got them top 5 movies in the correct order for the past four box office games. Each rank is worth 1 points with a bonus of 15 points if you get all 5 correct in the right order.

And FINALLY, is the true test. You will predict 20 spring films' total grosses. For each movie, the five closest predictors will get 3 points a piece.

The 10 Box Office Questions
(Questions refer to any movie released between March 2nd & April 29th, 2012.)

#1 - How many films will gross over $150 million?
#2 - Will The Hunger Games have an opening weekend over $80 million?
#3 - How many movies will have an opening weekend over $35 million?
#4 - What film will be #1 on the April 13th - 15th weekend?
#5 - What film will be #1 on the April 20th – 22nd weekend?
#6 - Which will gross more - The Hunger Games, or the sum of John Carter and The Lorax?
#7 - Will Wrath of the Titan's opening weekend double Mirror Mirror's opening weekend?
#8 - What action movie will gross more – The Cold Light of Day, Lockout, or Safe?
#9 - Which will gross more in total - Titanic 3D or John Carter?
#10 - How many films will gross over $100 million?


Predict the Top 5 Grossing Movies of Spring 2012

#1
#2
#3
#4
#5


Predict the Following Films' Total Gross

American Reunion
The Cabin in the Woods
Casa de mi Padre
Chimpanzee
The Cold Light of Day
21 Jump Street
Dr. Seus' The Lorax
The Five-Year Engagement
The Hunger Games
John Carter
The Lucky One
Mirror Mirror
Project X
Safe
Silent House
Think Like a Man
A Thousand Words
The Three Stooges
Titanic 3-D
Wrath of the Titans

Backups (optional to predict, but just in case a movie moves out of the season):
ATM
Jeff, Who Lives at Home

Prediction can be posted in this thread or sent in a PM to me. All predictions are due at 11:59 PM on Thursday, March 1st.

Good luck to all! Hope to get MORE players than ever!

Cool. I love these.

I'm convinced there's going to be a bit of release date shifting with the April 6th releases.

Oh, and you're missing a #2 in the first set of questions.

Nice catch, thank you.

I'm actually worried about many of the late April movies shifting dates as so many of them are seemingly low profile.

Bullet to the Head has no trailer yet. Could see it being shifted to later in the year, after The Expendables 2.

1. 2
2 No
3. 5
4. Titanic
5. Think Like a Man
6. The sum of John Carter and The Lorax
7. Yes
8. Safe
9. Titanic
10. 6

The Lorax: 217
The Hunger Games: 212
Wrath of the Titans: 143
Titanic: 116
American Reunion: 109

American Reunion: 109
The Cabin in the Woods: 27
Casa de mi Padre: 7
Chimpanzee: 19
The Cold Light of Day: 970k
21 Jump Street: 106
The Lorax: 217
The Five-Year Engagement: 74
The Hunger Games: 212
John Carter: 72
The Lucky One: 46
Mirror Mirror: 37
Project X: 42
Safe: 30
Silent House: 23
Think Like a Man: 50
A Thousand Words: 20
The Three Stooges: 17
Titanic: 116
Wrath of the Titans: 143

ATM: 350k
Jeff, Who Lives at Home: 3

#1 - How many films will gross over $150 million? One
#2 - Will The Hunger Games have an opening weekend over $80 million? Yes
#3 - How many movies will have an opening weekend over $35 million? Three
#4 - What film will be #1 on the April 13th - 15th weekend? American Reunion
#5 - What film will be #1 on the April 20th – 22nd weekend? Think Like a Man
#6 - Which will gross more - The Hunger Games, or the sum of John Carter and The Lorax? The Hunger Games
#7 - Will Wrath of the Titan's opening weekend double Mirror Mirror's opening weekend? No
#8 - What action movie will gross more – Bullet to the Head, The Cold Light of Day, Lockout, or Safe? Cold Light of Day
#9 - Which will gross more in total - Titanic 3D or John Carter? Titanic 3D
#10 - How many films will gross over $100 million? Four

Predict the Top 5 Grossing Movies of Spring 2012

#1 - The Hunger Games
#2 - American Reunion
#3 - The Lorax
#4 - Wrath of the Titans
#5 - Titanic 3D

Predict the Following Films' Total Gross

American Reunion - $139 million
The Cabin in the Woods - $23 million
Casa de mi Padre - $19 million
Chimpanzee - $21.5 million
The Cold Light of Day - $1.4 million
21 Jump Street - $93 million
Dr. Seus' The Lorax - $111 million
The Five-Year Engagement - $38 million
The Hunger Games - $314 million
John Carter - $81 million
The Lucky One - $44 million
Mirror Mirror - $61 million
Project X - $54 million
Safe - $29 million
Silent House - $49 million
Think Like a Man - $52 million
A Thousand Words - $31 million
The Three Stooges - $33 million
Titanic 3-D - $91 million
Wrath of the Titans - $107 million

Backups (optional to predict, but just in case a movie moves out of the season):
ATM - $3.3 million
Jeff, Who Lives at Home - $5.7 million

Isn't ATM an IFC release going on demand a month before theatres? IMO, 1 mil. would be amazing for it. Those types of releases don't do big theatrical numbers. Melancholia might be the king of them with 3 mil.

Ya you're probably right, but it seems like a much more marketable movie than anything released in that fashion. I think it will at least do better than say, P2 or High Tension.

I just don't believe it'll get enough theatres to do those types of numbers. A lot of major chains won't show movies available on demand before the theatrical release.

I know mine won't show them. This won't go even remotely wide. I'd be surprised if it did 1 Million.

What are the final rankings of the Winter contest?

Anyway..

#1-How many films will gross over $150 million? Two
#2-Will The Hunger Games have an opening weekend over $80 million? Yes
#3-How many movies will have an opening weekend over $35 million? Three
#4-What film will be #1 on the April 13th - 15th weekend? Titanic 3D
#5-What film will be #1 on the April 20th – 22nd weekend? Think Like a Man
#6-Which will gross more - The Hunger Games, or the sum of John Carter and The Lorax? The sum of...
#7-Will Wrath of the Titan's opening weekend double Mirror Mirror's opening weekend? Yes
#8-What action movie will gross more – Bullet to the Head, The Cold Light of Day, Lockout, or Safe? Lockout
#9-Which will gross more in total - Titanic 3D or John Carter? Titanic 3D
#10-How many films will gross over $100 million? Four

Predict the Top 5 Grossing Movies of Spring 2012

#1 - The Hunger Games
#2 - The Lorax
#3 - Titanic 3D
#4 - Wrath of the Titans
#5 - American Reunion

Predict the Following Films' Total Gross

American Reunion - 85m
The Cabin in the Woods - 30m
Casa de mi Padre - 20m
Chimpanzee - 15m
The Cold Light of Day - 10m
21 Jump Street - 75m
Dr. Seus' The Lorax - 175m
The Five-Year Engagement - 70m
The Hunger Games - 255m
John Carter - 80m
The Lucky One - 40m
Mirror Mirror - 65m
Project X - 50m
Safe - 30m
Silent House - 40m
Think Like a Man - 50m
A Thousand Words - 15m
The Three Stooges - 35m
Titanic 3-D - 125m
Wrath of the Titans - 100m

Backups (optional to predict, but just in case a movie moves out of the season):
ATM - 4m
Jeff, Who Lives at Home - 5m

I find The Cabin in the Woods very difficult to predict. I dig the trailer a lot, but I'm not sure whether or not audiences will go for it. Mainstream moviegoers can be touchy with their horror. They want to be terrified. They can recoil when a horror movie tries to be clever or funny or subversive.

It's likely an under 20 Million total grosser, as much as I'd love it to do well. Entertainment Weekly raved about it in their last issue. Can't wait to see it. Looks fun and clever. But like you said, horror audiences only go out and support the ones they think look scary. Horror/comedy hybrids rarely do well. Maybe they should just do the false advertising thing and sell it as scary. Who cares if audiences end up disappointed. At least it got their money .

The 10 Box Office Questions
(Questions refer to any movie released between March 2nd & April 29th, 2012.)

#1 - How many films will gross over $150 million? 2
#2 - Will The Hunger Games have an opening weekend over $80 million? Yes
#3 - How many movies will have an opening weekend over $35 million? 3
#4 - What film will be #1 on the April 13th - 15th weekend? Cabin in the Woods
#5 - What film will be #1 on the April 20th – 22nd weekend? The Lucky One
#6 - Which will gross more - The Hunger Games, or the sum of John Carter and The Lorax? Sum of JC & Lorax
#7 - Will Wrath of the Titan's opening weekend double Mirror Mirror's opening weekend? Yes
#8 - What action movie will gross more – Bullet to the Head, The Cold Light of Day, Lockout, or Safe? Lockout
#9 - Which will gross more in total - Titanic 3D or John Carter? John Carter
#10 - How many films will gross over $100 million? 5


Predict the Top 5 Grossing Movies of Spring 2012

#1 the Hunger Games
#2 the Lorax
#3 Wrath of the Titans
#4 American Reunion
#5 Five Year Engagement


Predict the Following Films' Total Gross

American Reunion $115,450,000
The Cabin in the Woods $43,450,000
Casa de mi Padre $6,500,000
Chimpanzee $18,775,000
The Cold Light of Day $1,500,000
21 Jump Street $86,550,000
Dr. Seus' The Lorax $220,350,000
The Five-Year Engagement $108,650,000
The Hunger Games $250,750,000
John Carter $95,670,000
The Lucky One $72,350,000
Mirror Mirror $35,445,000
Project X $40,100,000
Safe $28,750,000
Silent House $36,650,000
Think Like a Man $45,460,000
A Thousand Words $21,340,000
The Three Stooges $26,550,000
Titanic 3-D $55,100,000
Wrath of the Titans $135,650,000

Backups (optional to predict, but just in case a movie moves out of the season):
ATM $1,500,000
Jeff, Who Lives at Home $7,850,000

I see you've left off Bullet to Head and Movie 43, understandable considering the non-existent advertising, but do you not want to use Lockout/Pirates! or the Raven as back ups?

I guess it'll be harder to predict for ATM/Jeff but chances are they both gross less than 5m and everyone gets points.

edit: Oops forgot the closest predictors get points, but point still stands.

I'm hoping by the end of this weekend that the final rankings will be clear enough to post the results.

The 10 Box Office Questions
(Questions refer to any movie released between March 2nd & April 29th, 2012.)

#1 - How many films will gross over $150 million? 1
#2 - Will The Hunger Games have an opening weekend over $80 million? Yes
#3 - How many movies will have an opening weekend over $35 million? 4
#4 - What film will be #1 on the April 13th - 15th weekend? Titanic
#5 - What film will be #1 on the April 20th – 22nd weekend? Think Like A Man
#6 - Which will gross more - The Hunger Games, or the sum of John Carter and The Lorax? The Hunger Games
#7 - Will Wrath of the Titan's opening weekend double Mirror Mirror's opening weekend? Yes
#8 - What action movie will gross more – Bullet to the Head, The Cold Light of Day, Lockout, or Safe? Bullet To The Head
#9 - Which will gross more in total - Titanic 3D or John Carter? Titanic 3D
#10 - How many films will gross over $100 million? 4


Predict the Top 5 Grossing Movies of Spring 2012

#1 - The Hunger Games
#2 - The Lorax
#3 - Wrath of the Titans
#4 - Titanic 3D
#5 - American Reunion


Predict the Following Films' Total Gross

American Reunion - $105m
The Cabin in the Woods - $35m
Casa de mi Padre - $40m
Chimpanzee - $20m
The Cold Light of Day - $5m
21 Jump Street - $80m
Dr. Seuss' The Lorax - $140m
The Five-Year Engagement - $45m
The Hunger Games - $270m
John Carter - $85m
The Lucky One - $35m
Mirror Mirror - $50m
Project X - $40m
Safe - $30m
Silent House - $40m
Think Like a Man - $50m
A Thousand Words - $25m
The Three Stooges - $25m
Titanic 3-D - $110m
Wrath of the Titans - $125m

Backups (optional to predict, but just in case a movie moves out of the season):
ATM - $15m
Jeff, Who Lives at Home - $10m

I actually think 5 of those low-key movies have a decent chance of moving in my book. I wanted to include Lockout and The Raven as backups, but since they're the farthest movies away in this game, that gives them the most chance of moving release dates after predictions have already been sent.

Either way, late April's gonna suck box-office wise.

As it stands now the following movies don't have trailers on iTunes: Cold Light of Day, Bullet to the Head, Movie 43 and Lockout.

The two in the middle don't have trailers at all.

It doesn't make sense for any action movie to move. There's no space in summer, August or anywhere now. They have to release it.

If BTTH doesn't make it to cinemas it's good for both the former and latter. If both BTTH and M43 don't release the schedule should really shake up, the Raven for instance should move forward. In fact it'd be better if Cold Light of Day went there.

Many movements possible.

Can Hugo make it to 70M with it's DVD release in one week?

Most likely I'm thinking, but points are pretty much decided on that one already.

I've taken a closer look, and think the undecided ones shouldn't affect the outcome (with the top four only having a spread of 4 points).

Subject to change

The 10 Box Office Questions
(Questions refer to any movie released between March 2nd & April 29th, 2012.)

#1 - How many films will gross over $150 million? 2
#2 - Will The Hunger Games have an opening weekend over $80 million? Yes
#3 - How many movies will have an opening weekend over $35 million? 2
#4 - What film will be #1 on the April 13th - 15th weekend? American Reunion
#5 - What film will be #1 on the April 20th – 22nd weekend? The Lucky One
#6 - Which will gross more - The Hunger Games, or the sum of John Carter and The Lorax? Sum
#7 - Will Wrath of the Titan's opening weekend double Mirror Mirror's opening weekend? No
#8 - What action movie will gross more – Bullet to the Head, The Cold Light of Day, Lockout, or Safe? Safe
#9 - Which will gross more in total - Titanic 3D or John Carter? Titanic
#10 - How many films will gross over $100 million? 5


Predict the Top 5 Grossing Movies of Spring 2012

#1 The Hunger Games
#2 The Lorax
#3 Wrath of the Titans
#4 The Five Year Engagement
#5 American Reunion


Predict the Following Films' Total Gross

American Reunion $101M
The Cabin in the Woods $41M
Casa de mi Padre $19M
Chimpanzee $18M
The Cold Light of Day $10M
21 Jump Street $85M
Dr. Seus' The Lorax - $151M
The Five-Year Engagement - $105M
The Hunger Games - $237M
John Carter - $80M
The Lucky One - $57M
Mirror Mirror - $71M
Project X $39M
Safe - $28M
Silent House - $40M
Think Like a Man - $45M
A Thousand Words - $29M
The Three Stooges - $31M
Titanic 3-D $90M
Wrath of the Titans - $108M

Edited due to BTTH dropping off the schedule.

edit #2*

edit #3* wednesday
edit #4 thursday

#1 - How many films will gross over $150 million? 2
#2 - Will The Hunger Games have an opening weekend over $80 million? No
#3 - How many movies will have an opening weekend over $35 million? 3
#4 - What film will be #1 on the April 13th - 15th weekend? American Reunion
#5 - What film will be #1 on the April 20th – 22nd weekend? Think Like a Man
#6 - Which will gross more - The Hunger Games, or the sum of John Carter and The Lorax? The Hunger Games
#7 - Will Wrath of the Titan's opening weekend double Mirror Mirror's opening weekend? No
#8 - What action movie will gross more – Bullet to the Head, The Cold Light of Day, Lockout, or Safe? Safe
#9 - Which will gross more in total - Titanic 3D or John Carter? John Carter
#10 - How many films will gross over $100 million? Four

Predict the Top 5 Grossing Movies of Spring 2012

#1 - The Hunger Games
#2 - American Reunion
#3 - The Lorax
#4 - Wrath of the Titans
#5 - John Carter

Predict the Following Films' Total Gross

American Reunion - $151 million
The Cabin in the Woods - $32 million
Casa de mi Padre - $37 million
Chimpanzee - $21 million
The Cold Light of Day - $31million
21 Jump Street - $90 million
Dr. Seus' The Lorax - $121 million
The Five-Year Engagement - $42 million
The Hunger Games - $275 million
John Carter - $132 million
The Lucky One - $62 million
Mirror Mirror - $83 million
Project X - $70 million
Safe - $45 million
Silent House - $51million
Think Like a Man - $66 million
A Thousand Words - $51 million
The Three Stooges - $46 million
Titanic 3-D - $85 million
Wrath of the Titans - $157 million

Backups (optional to predict, but just in case a movie moves out of the season):
ATM - $28 million
Jeff, Who Lives at Home - $31million