I might be really off with most of my final grosses, but I am quite proud of my lowball predictions on Jack & Jill and Breaking Dawn

So far I'm doing horrible.

Yeah bring on sarcasm...you are leading the scores in the Google Doc.

Dead last for me. For anyone wanting to take a look at the Google Doc:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc ... 1hXSjJ0VkE

Damn I wanted to play this but forgot to enter.

Somehow I'm currently in 2nd place with 30 points. That's not going to last.

Tin Tin is going to mess everything up.

Well I wasn't aware of that. But it won't last. We still have a ways to go.

Aah I c, in that case you are not the worst....yet

I'm going to make a projection here for my points.

I absolutely sucked at the 20 questions, getting only 3 right.
I absolutely sucked at the top 5 ranking getting only one spot right.

I did pretty good predicting grosses, being in the top five on 13 films out of 25.

Is that last bit good enough to come out on top? Probably not, but you never know.

Not a bad projection. Spreadsheet is updated.

Total grosses can still vary wildly though. Last number I had listed for Sherlock was $140 million, and now Lecter is projecting $190 million.

====

Pessimistic. What this season is all about.

For reals. Only two movies hitting above the highest predictions. (M:I4 and Immortals)

Current rankings based on scores so far:


#1 David - 37 pts
#2 Flava'd vs the World - 35 pts
#3 Viper Rogers - 32 pts
#4 O - 32 pts
#5 trixster - 31 pts
#6 Jack Sparrow - 30 pts
#7 Omni - 30 pts
#8 SolC9 - 29 pts
#9 Mike - 29 pts
#10 Vanilla - 27 pts
#11 MadGez - 27 pts
#12 MG Casey - 26 pts
#13 Magnus - 26 pts
#14 Rev - 22 pts
#15 2001 - 21 pts
#16 devon28flick - 21 pts
#17 Caseys_Wife - 15 pts

at least I'm not dead last

I AM A GOD.

...

A very big progress for me from last game

Grr, so close. Stupid Alvin and the Chipmunks predictions killed me.

Best Picture noms give me some hope.

0f the films that haven't been decided yet...

I need Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close to gross 105M+. Extremely unlikely, but not impossible now.

Girl With The Dragon Tattoo needs 145M+. This isn't going to happen without a BP nom, but it isn't totally impossible.

Hugo needs 70M+. This has a real chance now with the most noms beefing up it's marketing and 3D prices.

War Horse needs 85M+. With a Best Pic nom, this should get there.

These were all films I was not counting in my points figuring I'd lost them. I should get at least two of those 4 now.

Still a chance for Hugo and War Horse, though it seems less likely after the lack of award boost for War Horse and the low expansion of Hugo. We'll see.

20 Box Office Questions

#1: How many films will gross over $150 million? (The Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn Part I, Mission: Impossible - Ghost Protocol, Sherlock Holmes: A Game of Shadows)? - Three

Winners: No one - as of 2/20, Puss in Boots is at $149,074,000 but with its DVD release today I don't foresee it happening. O was the only to predict only four films to pass $150 million however, which was impressive.


#2: How many films will gross over $200 million? (The Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn Part I, Mission: Impossible - Ghost Protocol)? - Two

Winners: Flava'd vs the World


#3: Which will be bigger – Puss in Boot’s opening weekend ($34.1 million) or the sum of Tower Heist and A Very Harold & Kumar 3D Christmas’ opening weekends ($38 million)? - The Sum

Winners: David, devon28flick, Magnus, Rev, trixster, Vanilla


#4: What film will be #1 on the Dec 23rd – 25th weekend? - Mission: Impossible - Ghost Protocol

Winners: devon28flick, Magnus, Omni, trixster, Viper Rogers


#5: What film will be #1 on the Dec 30th – Jan 1st weekend? - Mission: Impossible - Ghost Protocol

Winners: (no one)


#6: What will be the highest grossing animated film of the holiday season – Puss in Boots, Happy Feet Two, Arthur Christmas, or The Adventures of Tintin? - Puss in Boots

Winners: Caseys_Wife, David, Flava'd vs the World, Jack Sparrow, MadGez, MG Casey, O, Omni, Vanilla, Viper Rogers


#7: Will Happy Feet Two’s total be more or less than The Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn’s opening weekend? - Less

Winners: 2001, Caseys_Wife, David, Flava'd vs the World, Jack Sparrow, MadGez, Magnus, MG Casey, O, trixster, Vanilla


#8: Which will gross more – Sherlock Holmes: A Game of Shadows or the sum of Immortals and Mission: Impossible - Ghost Protocol? - The Sum

Winners: devon28flick, Flava'd vs the World, Jack Sparrow, MadGez, Mike, O, Rev, SolC9, trixster, Vanilla, Viper Rogers


#9: What will be the highest grossing film of December? - Mission: Impossible - Ghost Protocol

Winners: (no one)


#10: What will be the highest grossing Best Picture nominee released during the holiday season (Oct. 28th - Dec 31st)? - The Descendants

Winners: (no one)


#11: Which will gross more in total – The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo or Mission: Impossible - Ghost Protocol? - Mission: Impossible - Ghost Protocol

Winners: David, Flava'd vs the World, Jack Sparrow, MG Casey, Omni, Rev, trixster, Vanilla, Viper Rogers


#12: Which will gross more – The Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn’s opening day or New Year Eve’s total gross? - The Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn

Winners: 2001, Caseys_Wife, David, devon28flick, MadGez, Magnus, MG Casey, Rev, Viper Rogers


#13: Will Alvin and the Chipmunks: Chipwrecked and Sherlock Holmes: A Game of Shadows’ total grosses be within $25 million of each other? - No

Winners: Caseys_Wife, Flava'd vs the World, MadGez, MG Casey, Mike, O, Omni, Rev, Viper Rogers


#14: What sequel will have the best retention of its previous film's total: Alvin and the Chipmunks: Chipwrecked (62%), Happy Feet Two (32%), Mission: Impossible – Ghost Protocol (150%), Puss in Boots (61.5%), or The Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn (93.5%)? - Mission: Impossible - Ghost Protocol (150%)

Winners: David, devon28flick, Flava'd vs the World, Jack Sparrow, Magnus, Rev, trixster, Viper Rogers


#15: Which will gross more – The Darkest Hour, In Time, Anonymous, Piranha 3DD, The Sitter, or A Very Harold & Kumar 3D Christmas? - In Time

Winners: 2001, David, devon28flick, Flava'd vs the World


#16: Which comedy will gross more – Tower Heist, Jack and Jill, The Muppets, or New Year’s Eve? - The Muppets

Winners: devon28flick, Flava'd vs the World, Jack Sparrow, trixster, Vanilla


#17: Which The Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn have a 3-day opening weekend over $151 million? - No

Winners: Omni, Rev, SolC9, Viper Rogers


#18: How many movies will have a 3-day opening weekend (Fri-Sun) over $30 million? (Puss in Boots, Immortals, The Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn Part I, Sherlock Holmes: A Game of Shadows) - Four

Winners: (no one)


#19: Will the sum of J. Edgar, We Bought a Zoo, and Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy’s total gross be over $200 million? - No - only $137 million

Winners: David, devon28flick, Flava'd vs the World, Mike, Omni, SolC9


#20: How many films will gross over $100 million? (Puss in Boots, The Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn Part I, Sherlock Holmes: A Game of Shadows, Mission: Impossible - Ghost Protocol, Alvin and the Chipmunks: Chipwrecked, The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo) - Six

Winners: (no one)


Top Scorers of the Box Office Questions

1. Flava'd vs the World - 20 pts
2. David, devon28flick, Viper Rogers - 16 pts
5. Rev, trixster, Vanilla - 14 pts
8. Jack Sparrow, Omni - 12 pts
10. MadGez, Magnus, MG Casey, O - 10 pts
14. Caseys_Wife - 8 pts
15. 2001, Mike, SolC9 - 6 pts

Top 5 Winter Movies

#1: The Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn Part 1

Winners: EVERYBODY!

#2: Mission: Impossible - Ghost Protocol

Winners: (No one)

#3: Sherlock Holmes: A Game of Shadows

Winners: 2001, Jack Sparrow, O, trixster

#4: Puss in Boots

Winners: 2001, David, Jack Sparrow, O, Omni, trixster

#5: Alvin and the Chipmunks: Chipwrecked

Winners: MadGez, Rev


Total Gross Predictions

The Adventures of Tintin
Flava'd vs the World - $125.0 Million +3
Magnus - $125.0 Million +3
Omni - $125.0 Million +3
trixster - $120.0 Million +3
O - $110.0 Million +3
Mike - $89.0 Million +3
Actual - $80 million


Alvin and the Chipmunks: Chipwrecked
O - $175.0 Million +3
Mike - $175.0 Million +3
2001 - $160.0 Million +3
Viper Rogers - $155.0 Million +3
MG Casey - $145.0 Million +3
Actual - $134 million


Anonymous
Flava'd vs the World - $14.0 Million +3
devon28flick - $13.0 Million +3
Jack Sparrow - $6.0 Million +3
David - $5.0 Million +3
Actual - $4.5 million
SolC9 - $4.0 Million +3


Arthur Christmas
SolC9 - $80.0 Million +3
Mike - $80.0 Million +3
MG Casey - $76.0 Million +3
MadGez - $70.0 Million +3
O - $60.0 Million +3
Actual - $46.7 million
Viper Rogers - $33.0 Million +3


Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close
Rev - $71.0 Million +3
Omni - $71.0 Million +3
O - $65.0 Million +3
Caseys_Wife - $62.0 Million +3
Vanilla - $60.0 Million +3
Flava'd vs the World - $58.0 Million +3
Actual - $32 million


The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
Vanilla - $110.0 Million +3
Rev - $108.0 Million +3
Omni - $108.0 Million +3
O - $105.0 Million +3
Actual - $103 million
Viper Rogers - $88.0 Million +3


Happy Feet Two
Omni - $150.0 Million +3
David - $150.0 Million +3
2001 - $140.0 Million +3
O - $140.0 Million +3
Flava'd vs the World - $133.0 Million +3
MG Casey - $122.0 Million +3
Actual - $62 million


Hugo
trixster - $80.0 Million +3
SolC9 - $80.0 Million +3
Actual - $70 million
Jack Sparrow - $65.0 Million +3
Caseys_Wife - $61.0 Million +3
2001 - $60.0 Million +3
Omni - $60.0 Million +3
David - $60.0 Million +3


Immortals
Actual - $83.1 million
Vanilla - $80.0 Million +3
O - $80.0 Million +3
devon28flick - $75.0 Million +3
MG Casey - $74.0 Million +3
Rev - $74.0 Million +3


In Time
Omni - $44.0 Million +3
David - $42.0 Million +3
Jack Sparrow - $40.0 Million +3
O - $40.0 Million +3
Actual - $37.5 million
SolC9 - $35.0 Million +3


Jack and Jill
trixster - $100.0 Million +3
2001 - $100.0 Million +3
Magnus - $98.0 Million +3
Mike - $98.0 Million +3
MadGez - $88.0 Million +3
Viper Rogers - $72.0 Million +3
Actual - $71.7 million


Mission: Impossible - Ghost Protocol
Actual - $210 million
Vanilla - $180.0 Million +3
Flava'd vs the World - $173.0 Million +3
Rev - $168.0 Million +3
Magnus - $155.0 Million +3
David - $155.0 Million +3


The Muppets
Mike - $100.0 Million +3
MadGez - $100.0 Million +3
SolC9 - $95.0 Million +3
Omni - $95.0 Million +3
O - $90.0 Million +3
Actual - $88.7 million
2001 - $80.0 Million +3


New Year's Eve
MG Casey - $80.0 Million +3
Viper Rogers - $76.0 Million +3
2001 - $75.0 Million +3
David - $70.0 Million +3
Actual - $59 million
MadGez - $40.0 Million +3


Puss in Boots
SolC9 - $160.0 Million +3
Mike - $160.0 Million +3
Flava'd vs the World - $156.0 Million +3
Actual - $149.8 million
trixster - $145.0 Million +3
O - $145.0 Million +3
Magnus - $140.0 Million +3


The Rum Diary
Jack Sparrow - $29.0 Million +3
Omni - $29.0 Million +3
Mike - $26.0 Million +3
SolC9 - $23.0 Million +3
trixster - $20.0 Million +3
Vanilla - $20.0 Million +3
Actual - $13.1 million


Sherlock Holmes: A Game of Shadows
SolC9 - $200.0 Million +3
Magnus - $195.0 Million +3
trixster - $190.0 Million +3
MadGez - $190.0 Million +3
Actual - $187 million
2001 - $185.0 Million +3



The Sitter
trixster - $40.0 Million +3
Magnus - $40.0 Million +3
Omni - $40.0 Million +3
Vanilla - $40.0 Million +3
Actual - $31.5 million
SolC9 - $30.0 Million +3
David - $30.0 Million +3
MadGez - $30.0 Million +3


Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy
Caseys_Wife - $43.0 Million +3
Jack Sparrow - $35.0 Million +3
O - $35.0 Million +3
Actual - $25 million
SolC9 - $20.0 Million +3
devon28flick - $19.0 Million +3


Tower Heist
Jack Sparrow - $87.0 Million +3
Flava'd vs the World - $85.0 Million +3
SolC9 - $80.0 Million +3
Actual - $78.5 million
Caseys_Wife - $76.0 Million +3
Mike - $66.0 Million +3


The Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn
Flava'd vs the World - $300.0 Million +3
trixster - $300.0 Million +3
Omni - $300.0 Million +3
Magnus - $300.0 Million +3
Mike - $300.0 Million +3
MadGez - $300.0 Million +3
Jack Sparrow - $297.0 Million +3
Viper Rogers - $288.0 Million +3
SolC9 - $285.0 Million +3
Actual - $284 million


War Horse
2001 - $95.0 Million +3
David - $95.0 Million +3
Flava'd vs the World - $87.0 Million +3
Magnus - $80.0 Million +3
Actual - $80 million
MadGez - $80.0 Million +3
O - $70.0 Million +3


We Bought a Zoo
Vanilla - $80.0 Million +3
MG Casey - $75.0 Million +3
Actual - $75 million
SolC9 - $70.0 Million +3
Viper Rogers - $62.0 Million +3
Omni - $62.0 Million +3


A Very Harold & Kumar 3D Christmas
Caseys_Wife - $39.0 Million +3
SolC9 - $36.0 Million +3
Mike - $36.0 Million +3
Actual - $35.2 million
David - $35.0 Million +3
O - $35.0 Million +3

Top Scorers of the Total Box Office Predictions

1. SolC9 - 42 pts
2. O - 39 pts
3. Omni - 36 pts
4. Mike - 33 pts
5. Flava'd vs the World - 30 pts
6. David, MadGez - 27 pts
8. 2001, Magnus, trixster, Vanilla - 24 pts
12. Jack Sparrow, Viper Rogers - 21 pts
14. MG Casey - 18 pts
15. Caseys_Wife - 15 pts
16. devon28flick, Rev - 12 pts


Average Predictions for the Fall/Winter Season

1. The Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn Part I - $304.2 million
2. Sherlock Holmes: A Game of Shadows - $204.4 million
3. Alvin and the Chipmunks: Chipwrecked - $193.6 million
4. Puss in Boots - $174.8 million
5. The Adventures of Tintin - $160.8 million
6. Happy Feet Two - $160.4 million
7. Mission: Impossible - Ghost Protocol - $142.7 million
8. The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo - $136.8 million
9. War Horse - $121.9 million
10. Jack and Jill - $111.4 million
11. The Muppets - $103.4 million
12. Tower Heist - $101.3 million
13. Arthur Christmas - $92.2 million
14. Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close - $90.8 million
15. New Year's Eve - $88.7 million
16. We Bought a Zoo - $76.1 million
17. J. Edgar - $71.8 million
18. Hugo - $71.6 million
19. Immortals - $61.9 million
20. Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy - $57.9 million
21. The Sitter - $55.9 million
22. A Very Harold & Kumar 3D Christmas - $47.9 million
23. In Time - $46.9 million
24. The Rum Diary - $34.3 million
25. Anonymous - $28.2 million

Under-prediction / Over-prediction Chart

Way Under-predicted
Mission: Impossible - Ghost Protocol (+37%)
Immortals (+25%)
We Bought a Zoo (-1%)
Hugo (-2%)
The Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn Part I (-7%)
Sherlock Holmes: A Game of Shadows (-9%)
The Muppets (-17%)
Puss in Boots (-17%)
In Time (-25%)
Tower Heist (-29%)
The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo (-33%)
Alvin and the Chipmunks: Chipwrecked (-35%)
A Very Harold & Kumar 3D Christmas (-36%)
New Year's Eve (-50%)
War Horse (-51%)
Jack and Jill (-55%)
The Sitter (-78%)
J. Edgar (-91%)
Arthur Christmas (-97%)
The Adventures of Tintin (-101%)
Tinker, Tailor, Solider, Spy (-132%)
The Rum Diary (-162%)
Happy Feet Two (-159%)
Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close (-167%)
Anonymous (-533%)
Way Over-predicted

Closest Predictions (Total Gross Predictions minus Actual Grosses)
(This category will break all ties in overall ranking)

1. O - $693 million
2. Jack Sparrow - $733 million
3. MG Casey - $751 million
4. Omni - $756 million
5. Flava'd vs the World - $781 million
6. MadGez - $786 million
7. Mike - $826 million
8. SolC9 - $828 million
9. 2001 - $836 million
10. devon28flick - $847 million
11. trixster - $899 million
12. David - $904 million
13. Magus - $907 million
14. Viper Rogers - $920 million
15. Vanilla - $957 million
16. Rev - $1,070 million
17. Caseys_Wife - $1,162 million

OVERALL RANKING

1. O - 52 pts
2. Flava'd vs the World - 51 pts
3. Omni - 50 pts
4. SolC9 - 49 pts
5. David - 45 pts
6. Mike - 40 pts
7. trixster - 40 pts
8. MadGez - 39 pts
9. Vanilla - 39 pts
10. Viper Rogers - 38 pts
11. Jack Sparrow - 36 pts
12. Magnus - 35 pts
13. 2001 - 33 pts
14. MG Casey - 29 pts
15. devon28flick - 29 pts
16. Rev - 28 pts
17. Caseys_Wife - 24 pts

Congrats O!!! You win the $25 gift card!!!

Past Winners:

Summer Box Office Contest 2011 - Omni
Late Winter Box Office Contest 2010 - Vanilla
Summer Box Office Contest 2010 - Vanilla
Spring Box Office Contest 2010 - Viper Rogers

Congrats, O.

It seems we, in general, have a tendency to over-predict.

Nice one O

congrats O whoever u are

can't wait for SUMMER contest

The pattern I've talked about a couple of times in correlation to WWW threads (that virtually every high profile movie last year got) that pop up based on over-expectations stemming solely from WOKJ without any real arguments apart from "This has potential." ("It sold shitload of books." is the #2 reason out there, look at the Dragon Tattoo talk in this thread for instance) which can be used for any movie I guess, but ain't a real argument, no?

Damn it, so close!

Congrats, O!