Transformers 3D Demolishes Hong Kong Box Office Records

Actuals

1. Transformers: Dark Of The Moon - under HK 40 million (Mysina)/over HK 40 million (HR)...still do not have an accurate figure (under 40 million HKD would translate to 5.14 million so it seems like HR is right).
2. Beginning Of The Great Revival - $499,887 (total)
3. Treasure Inn - $259,581 (total)
4. X-Men: First Class - $3,294,886 (total)

Others
Certified Copy - $17,990
Night Market Hero - below $2,570

In other news, Certified Copy posted a superb gross. Night Market Hero bombed.

	Monday adm.				July 4
Rank	Title	LW	TW	WKD % chg	QD % chg
1	Transformers: Dark of the Moon 3D	--	36,925	--	-64.6%
2	Transformers: Dark of the Moon	--	7,618	--	-64.4%
3	Beginning Of The Great Revival	--	1,904	--	-69.2%
4	X-Men: First Class	--	722	--	--
5	Treasure Inn	--	401	--	-72.5%

I don't like that drop for either version of Transformers 3 but it's too early to predict based on its Monday admissions number. Wednesday will give us a clearer picture for the upcoming weekend.

I've updated the grosses, OW's for 2010 and posted the OW's and top 10 grosses of 2011 in the second post of this thread.

Some notable achievements this year have been that we are well ahead of last year's top OW grossers. By July 21, we will complete our top 10 OW's with 1m grossers whereas last year, it took the whole year until Gulliver's Travels sealed the deal. Also, we have 7 $1m grossers compared with 5 at the same time last year. By either August 4 or August 11, we will tie last year's 1m grossers list.

I've also put up the records for Hong Kong in the second post as well. It is a work in progress until actuals are released for Transformers 3 this week.

Notes:

- Overheard 2 will premiere August 18.

- It looks like Wu Xia will be given previews on July 28 while it will be fully released on August 4. I'm still unsure as to which one is the actual release date. Broadway and UA Cinemas have two different release dates.

- 4D screen will be showing Kung Fu Panda 2 on July 21 and advanced ticketing has been released. No word yet as to what will be shown on July 14. Ticketing for Transformers 3 stops at July 13.

	Tuesday adm.				July 5
Rank	Title	LW	TW	WKD % chg	QD % chg
1	Transformers: Dark of the Moon 3D	6838	49,811	+628.4%	+34.9%
2	Transformers: Dark of the Moon	--	11,453	--	+50.3%
3	Beginning Of The Great Revival	6534	2,390	-63.4%	+25.5%
4	X-Men: First Class	4588	900	-80.4%	+24.7%
5	Certified Copy	--	682	--	--

	Wednesday adm.				July 6
Rank	Title	LW	TW	WKD % chg	QD % chg
1	Transformers: Dark of the Moon 3D	69,581	33,660	-51.6%	-32.4%
2	Transformers: Dark of the Moon 2D	8,845	7,742	-12.5%	-32.4%
3	Something Borrowed	--	2,443	--	--
4	Beginning Of The Great Revival	3,724	2,174	-41.6%	-9.0%
5	Henry's Crime	--	1,973	--	--

The decrease from Monday is not a good sign. The 3D version dropped 3,200+ admissions but the increase for the 2D version has given me a bit of hope.

	Thursday adm.	(so far)			July 7
Rank	Title	LW	TW	WKD % chg	QD % chg
1	Transformers: Dark of the Moon 3D	42,692	14,965	-64.9%	-30.8%
2	Mr. Popper's Penguins	--	7,002	--	--
3	Transformers: Dark of the Moon	5,215	2,239	-57.1%	-37.6%
4	The Tree Of Life	--	1,253	--	--
5	Beach Spike	--	1,028	--	--

Not a good drop for Transformers. Let's see if it can match Toy Story 3's 2nd Thursday admissions. Great start for Mr. Popper's Penguins (+145% better than Super 8 [2,860], +10% better than Green Lantern [6,376], +22% better than Hangover 2 [5,740]). It should be able to do $600,000 with ease.

Good start for The Tree Of Life. Pretty dismal for Beach Spike though.

July 7 Predictions

I have updated the schedule and records on the first page.

	Thursday adm.				July 7
Rank	Title	LW	TW	WKD % chg	QD % chg
1	Mr. Popper's Penguins	--	28,289	--	--
2	Transformers: Dark of the Moon 3D	72,697	26,993	-62.9%	-19.8%
3	Transformers: Dark of the Moon	13,030	6,034	-53.7%	-22.1%
4	Beach Spike	--	3,875	--	--
5	The Tree Of Life	--	3,796	--	--

Transformers 3 admissions: 33,027 (both) (-61.4%)

Excellent start for Mr. Popper's Penguins. It managed to beat the 3D version of Transformers but not both versions of Transformers combined. Compared to other recent releases, this is +84% better than Hangover 2 [15,379], +166% better than Super 8 [10,629] +88% better than Green Lantern [15,032], but -12% behind X-Men: First Class [32,105]. The sudden surge in ticket sales for Popper's Penguins has led theaters to reschedule the weekend and tip it in its favour. Take a look at the number of showtimes it is getting on Saturday.

Mr. Popper's Penguins Weekend Explosion

Pacific Place - Fri: 7, Sat: 14
Festival Walk - Fri: 9, Sat: 14
Hollywood - Fri: 8, Sat: 15
Windsor - Fri: 8, Sat: 12
Megabox - Fri: 8, Sat: 12
Telford - Fri: 7, Sat: 12
Olympian City - Fri: 6, Sat: 16
Tsuen Wan - Fri: 5, Sat: 11

While more than half are upping the showtimes for Popper's, the rest are simply giving it bigger screens. At this point, beating Green Lantern's OW is a lock. 1m is now in play.

Transformers 3 ended up not matching Toy Story 3's 2nd Thursday (88% of TS3's 2nd Thursday [37,405]). At this point, a 2m weekend is out of the picture. It could be drop upwards of 85% tomorrow unless if it significantly picks up. More than likely though, it will drop around 75-80%.

Beach Spike is doing quite poorly. Maybe it has something to do with the insane number of Chinese rom-com movies this summer? And we still have 2 more to go after this... The Tree of Life did quite good.

	Friday adm.	(so far)			July 8
Rank	Title	LW	TW	WKD % chg	QD % chg
1	Transformers: Dark of the Moon 3D	78,185	19,804	-74.7%	+32.3%
2	Mr. Popper's Penguins	--	8,525	--	+21.8%
3	Transformers: Dark of the Moon	13,993	3,305	-76.4%	+47.6%
4	The Tree Of Life	--	2,048	--	+63.4%
5	Beach Spike	--	907	--	-11.8%

Transformers looks like it's picking up just a bit. I don't think Popper's can come back from the big lead. That is a solid increase for Tree Of Life. Terrible for Beach Spike.

^ That's a good drop for Transformers 3, considering last Thursday was the beginning of an extended holiday in Hong Kong.

Mr. Popper's Penguins did excellent. Jim Carrey is still a solid draw in comedies. And who doesn't love animals (in films) in Hong Kong?

Not exactly. The holiday effect is canceled out by the deflated Thursday since it opened on Wednesday. It's not horrible but it's not exactly great either.

I think I need to start getting bolder with predictions on live action animal films. Zookeeper 2m OW?

		Thursday Actuals				July 7
LW	TW	Title	Last Fri. (USD)	Thursday (USD)	% chg	Total
1	1	Transformers: Dark of the Moon	$1,203,851	$304,626	-74.7%	$6,746,866
--	2	Mr. Popper's Penguins	--	$154,491	--	$154,491
--	3	Beach Spike	--	$29,141	--	$29,141
--	4	The Tree Of Life	--	$22,851	--	$22,851
2	5	Beginning Of The Great Revival	$39,673	$3,897	-90.2%	$544,815
4	6	X-Men: First Class	$15,337	$2,078	-86.5%	$3,315,047
--	7	Sex & Zen: Extreme Ecstasy 3D	--	$2,066	--	$5,241,986
--	8	Microsex Office	--	$1,834	--	$433,025
5	9	Green Lantern 3D	$10,271	$1,402	-86.3%	$1,462,187
7	10	Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides 3D	$5,417	$1,386	-74.4%	$5,820,548

The drops don't tell us much since they are based on different days. Transformers 3's 1st week came in at a mammoth $6,442,240. Weekdays grossed about $1,315,316. Even if it grosses around 1.8m for this weekend, it'll be at 8.2 million and then it'll take home about $600,000-700,000 from the 2nd week weekdays. Harry Potter frenzy begins and then all bets are pretty much off.

Mr. Popper's Penguins did quite well given the release date. Sex & Zen and Pirates are still chugging along. It's funny to see them surviving. This wouldn't have happened a few years ago. Dang, this market is starting to gain legs.

	Friday adm.				July 8
Rank	Title	LW	TW	WKD % chg	QD % chg
1	Transformers: Dark of the Moon 3D	131,994	33,239	-74.8%	+23.1%
2	Mr. Popper's Penguins	--	30,289	--	+7.1%
3	Transformers: Dark of the Moon	25,382	7,114	-72.0%	+17.9%
4	The Tree Of Life	--	5,128	--	+35.1%
5	Beach Spike	--	3,674	--	-5.2%

Transformers 3 admissions: 40,353 (-74.4%)

Very good drop for Transformers. Yesterday's drop didn't tell us a whole lot but this drop is telling us it's going to drop less than 50% on Saturday/Sunday. Popper's slowed down quite a lot from yesterday's outburst but it is still doing good. I still think The Tree of Life is doing quite well even with the semi-wide release + accolades. Crappy for Beach Spike.

	Saturday adm.	(so far)			July 9
Rank	Title	LW	TW	WKD % chg	QD % chg
1	Transformers: Dark of the Moon 3D	65,471	29,344	-55.2%	+48.2%
2	Mr. Popper's Penguins	--	15,642	--	+83.5%
3	Transformers: Dark of the Moon	12,292	5,661	-53.9%	+71.3%
4	The Tree Of Life	--	3,166	--	+54.6%
5	Beach Spike	--	985	--	+8.6%

I still think Transformers will get close to a 2 multiplier. It should be just below the 50% mark for the day. I don't think Popper's can reach 60,000 admissions for Saturday...around the 50,000-55,000 range. The Tree Of Life should be around the 7,500 mark. I can't believe Beach Spike's Saturday pre-sales are lower than Thursday's...3,300 for the day.

	Saturday adm.				July 9
Rank	Title	LW	TW	WKD % chg	QD % chg
1	Mr. Popper's Penguins	--	56,921	--	+87.9%
2	Transformers: Dark of the Moon 3D	110,853	53,896	-51.4%	+62.1%
3	Transformers: Dark of the Moon	21,982	12,433	-43.4%	+74.8%
4	The Tree Of Life	--	8,572	--	+67.2%
5	Beach Spike	--	3,821	--	+4.0%

Transformers 3 2nd Saturday admissions: 66,329 (-50.1%)

Excellent for Popper's Penguins. This puts it in the vicinity of about $850,000-$1,000,000 for the weekend. Tomorrow should see it rise a bit more and it will have a shot at beating both versions combined. As expected, the driving force of this film is not kids but couples. The great thing about Popper's is that it's also attracting kids too. Today at about 3 PM, Popper's admissions went up 7,000 in 1 hour when Transformers 3 (combined) only went up by 3,200. What a massive hit it is here. It is even tracking somewhat close to X-Men: First Class.

	Mr. Popper's Penguins	X-Men: First Class
Thursday	28,289	32,105
Friday	30,289	33,129
Saturday	56,921	64,048

Transformers did good as well but Popper's performance the entire weekend has stunned everyone. Transformers, however, is looking at 1.8-1.9m for the weekend. It was slightly affected by Popper's but that is still a great 2nd weekend. Movies are becoming more leggy here. The 2D version is a big winner this weekend as it has increased a bit more in share % from last weekend. (2D share today was 18.74%.)

The Tree of Life had another solid performance. No doubt the talks proved helpful and buzz has been spreading. Beach Spike managed to go up in admissions from yesterday's decrease but it is still a terrible result. The revolving door of rom-coms this summer has proven fatal for it.

	Sunday adm.	(so far)			July 10
Rank	Title	LW	TW	WKD % chg	QD % chg
1	Transformers: Dark of the Moon 3D	64,849	30,220	-53.4%	+3.0%
2	Mr. Popper's Penguins	--	18,940	--	+21.1%
3	Transformers: Dark of the Moon	11,506	6,833	-40.6%	+20.7%
4	The Tree Of Life	--	2,936	--	-7.3%
5	Beach Spike	--	1,019	--	+3.5%

Transformers is still doing well in weekend morning shows. The afternoons/evenings are where it's struggling behind Popper's Penguins. I think it will see a slight drop...around 52,500 admissions given the long running time. Speaking of which, Popper's has a great shot of passing 60,000 admissions today. It has done exceptional walk-in business and theaters have rewarded it by putting it on the biggest screens in most areas today. Afternoons/nights are where it's done the best and it could be able to push Popper's past 60,000 late tonight. If it manages to pass 60,000 with ease, then it can also take down Transformers for the day. The 2D version continues to show strength.

The Tree of Life had a minor slip-up but it has done quite well already this weekend. Wow, Beach Spike did not have a single pre-sales or final admissions day (so far) that has increased by double digits. Really poor.

Going back to Transformers/Mr. Popper's Penguins for a bit, there is an interesting scenario developing with the weekday schedules. Popper's Penguins has been given the biggest screen and the 4th biggest at most locations while Transformers has gotten the 2nd/3rd biggest screens. Clearly, theaters were not expecting Popper's to do as well as they thought and they quickly recovered to give it bigger screens throughout the weekend. Now, I think they are waiting to see who has better weekdays to decide who will get the more favorable showtimes next weekend when Harry Potter opens. It may come down to them sharing screens/splitting showtimes with each other. Besides that, for the smaller theaters with only 2 or 3 screens, this creates a big problem as they still need to manage the demand for Harry Potter. We could see one of the two being dropped in favor of the better performing movie in the next 3 days.

	Sunday adm.				July 10
Rank	Title	LW	TW	WKD % chg	QD % chg
1	Mr. Popper's Penguins	--	59,544	--	+4.6%
2	Transformers: Dark of the Moon 3D	104,319	52,632	-49.5%	-2.3%
3	Transformers: Dark of the Moon	21,406	12,973	-39.4%	+4.3%
4	The Tree Of Life	--	8,395	--	-2.1%
5	Beach Spike	--	3,305	--	-13.5%

	Weekend adm.			July 7-10
Rank	Title	LW	TW	% chg
1	Mr. Popper's Penguins	--	175,043	--
2	Transformers: Dark of the Moon 3D	419,863	166,760	-60.3%
3	Transformers: Dark of the Moon	81,800	38,554	-52.9%
4	The Tree Of Life	--	24,437	--
5	Beach Spike	--	14,675	--

My Weekend Estimates:

1. Transformers: Dark of the Moon - $1,893,715 (-56%, -63% 5-day)/$8,335,955
2. Mr. Popper's Penguins - $955,939
3. The Tree of Life - $155,857
4. Beach Spike - $110,359

July 7 Recap

Given that it does not have 3D advantage, Poppers did excellent, I am just wondering how much it will drop in face of HP. TF3 while that drop is good does not look promising specially in face of HP next weekend.

Today, at most locations, Popper's has done better in admissions than Transformers but in others, Transformers is still way out in front. How theaters schedule Transformers/Mr. Popper's Penguins might come down to how well it's playing at the individual theater. We'll know more about Popper's 2nd weekend drop tomorrow when they post the full-day schedules for Thursday.

TF3 was always going to drop big when Harry Potter arrived. It got hit by Popper's but still held up quite well. It's a lock to drop more than 60% this weekend.

I'm going to split this into 2 posts because otherwise it'll be too big/long to read.

Thursday Schedules

Palace IFC
New	Holdovers	Leaving
Harry Potter And The Deathly Hallows: Part 2 (3D English) - 17 showings	Mr. Popper's Penguins - 4 showings (▼ 14)	Certified Copy
	The Tree Of Life - 1 showing (▼ 6)
	Transformers: Dark of the Moon 3D - 4 showings (▼ 10)

Pacific Place
New	Holdovers	Leaving
Harry Potter And The Deathly Hallows: Part 2 (3D English) - 21 showings	Mr. Popper's Penguins - 5 showings (▼ 14)	London Boulevard
	The Tree Of Life - 2 showings (▼ 6)	The Conspirator
	Transformers: Dark of the Moon 3D - 4 showings (▼ 11)

Olympian City
New	Holdovers	Leaving
Harry Potter And The Deathly Hallows: Part 2 (3D English) - 19 showings	Beach Spike - 1 showing (▼ 5)	Beginning of the Great Revival
Harry Potter And The Deathly Hallows: Part 2 (3D Cantonese) - 3 showings	Mr. Popper's Penguins - 5 showings (▼ 15)	X-Men: First Class
Harry Potter And The Deathly Hallows: Part 2 (English) - 4 showings	Transformers: Dark of the Moon - 1 showing (▼ 6)	Something Borrowed
	Transformers: Dark of the Moon 3D - 4 showings (▼ 10)

Palace APM
New	Holdovers	Leaving
Harry Potter And The Deathly Hallows: Part 2 (3D English) - 22 showings	Beach Spike - 3 showings (▼ 6)	X-Men: First Class
Harry Potter And The Deathly Hallows: Part 2 (3D Cantonese) - 3 showings	Mr. Popper's Penguins - 9 showings (▼ 16)
Harry Potter And The Deathly Hallows: Part 2 (English) - 3 showings	Transformers: Dark of the Moon 3D - 3 showings (▼ 13)
	Transformers: Dark of the Moon - 2 showings (▼ 7)

Festival Walk
New	Holdovers	Leaving
Harry Potter And The Deathly Hallows: Part 2 (3D English) - 22 showings	Beach Spike - 1 showing (▼ 5)	Hangover 2
Harry Potter And The Deathly Hallows: Part 2 (3D Cantonese) - 4 showings	Mr. Popper's Penguins - 8 showings (▼ 12)
Harry Potter And The Deathly Hallows: Part 2 (English) - 3 showings	The Tree Of Life - 1 showing (▼ 6)
	Transformers: Dark of the Moon 3D - 4 showings (▼ 14)
	Transformers: Dark of the Moon - 1 showing (▼ 5)

Tsuen Wan
New	Holdovers	Leaving
Harry Potter And The Deathly Hallows: Part 2 (3D English) - 15 showings	Beach Spike - 1 showing (▼ 4)
Harry Potter And The Deathly Hallows: Part 2 (3D Cantonese) - 2 showings	Mr. Popper's Penguins - 4 showings (▼ 11)
	Transformers: Dark of the Moon 3D - 2 showings (▼ 8)
	Transformers: Dark of the Moon - 2 showings (▼ 3)

Times Square
New	Holdovers	Leaving
Harry Potter And The Deathly Hallows: Part 2 (3D English) - 14 showings	Mr. Popper's Penguins - 8 showings (▲ 7)	Transformers: Dark of the Moon
	The Tree Of Life - 3 showings (▼ 5)	Beginning Of The Great Revival
	Transformers: Dark of the Moon 3D - 4 showings (▼ 9)

The One
New	Holdovers	Leaving
Harry Potter And The Deathly Hallows: Part 2 (3D English) - 18 showings	Beach Spike - 2 showings (▼ 5)
Harry Potter And The Deathly Hallows: Part 2 (English) - 2 showings	Mr. Popper's Penguins - 7 showings (▼ 12)
	The Tree Of Life - 1 showing (▼ 6)
	Transformers: Dark of the Moon 3D - 5 showings (▼ 11)
	Transformers: Dark of the Moon - 1 showing (▼ 2)

They are showing 3 different versions of Harry Potter at a couple of theaters. That is awesome! Mr. Popper's Penguins has overtaken Transformers as the #2 movie with these Thursday schedules.

Harry Potter is doing better than Transformers 3's Opening Thursday schedules in most places. Wow. It's not doing better than Toy Story 3's, however, due to more competition.

Interesting that TF3 was taken out over MPP. Looks like TF3 will see a brutal drop this weekend.

That Thursday comparison of HP with TF3 is futile. TF3 wasn't going to be as big anyways and there is no way it beats HP in WW and/or OS total

Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2 Opening Day watch

Palace IFC (@ 4 PM July 12)

9:00 AM - 25/94 (morning show)
9:30 AM - 64/181 (morning show)
10:00 AM - 93/95 (morning show)
11:25 AM - 21/94
11:55 AM - 37/181
12:25 PM - 89/95
2:00 PM - 19/90
2:20 PM - 36/181
2:50 PM - 93/95
4:20 PM - 18/90
4:40 PM - 16/94
4:45 PM - 44/181
5:15 PM - 93/95
6:50 PM - 49/90
7:35 PM - 65/84
9:15 PM - 52/90
10:05 PM - 95/95
Total - 909/1925 (47.2% full)

Festival Walk (3D English - @ 4 PM July 12):

9:25 AM - 56/138 (morning show)
9:30 AM - 328/354 (morning show)
10:00 PM - 66/156 (morning show)
11:55 AM - 189/354
12:25 PM - 32/156
1:00 PM - 106/156
2:05 PM - 32/138
2:20 PM - 221/354
2:45 PM - 42/156
3:20 PM - 112/156
4:25 PM - 37/138
4:45 PM - 192/354
5:10 PM - 36/156
5:40 PM - 106/156
6:45 PM - 30/138
7:10 PM - 272/354
7:35 PM - 51/156
8:00 PM - 133/156
9:05 PM - 32/138
9:35 PM - 235/354
9:55 PM - 35/156
10:20 PM - 65/156
Total - 2408/4530 (53.2% full)

It's doing more than 2x the pre-sales that Pirates 4 did at Festival Walk and is doing better than Transformers 3 at IFC even though I took Transformers 3 pre-sales 8 hours later.

Something else to look out for is the battle for showtimes between Popper's and Transformers.

	Showtimes
	Transformers: DotM 3D	Transformers: DotM 2D	Mr. Popper's Penguins
Olympian City
Thursday	4	1	5
Palace APM
Thursday	3	2	9
Langham Place
Thursday	6	2	8
The One
Thursday	5	1	7
Pacific Place
Thursday	4		5
Palace IFC
Thursday	4		4
Festival Walk
Thursday	4	1	8
Times Square
Thursday	4		8
Yuen Long
Thursday	1	3	4
iSquare
Thursday	7		8

Keep an eye out as this will determine who will be #2 this weekend. It looks like theaters are undecided at this point and are splitting the screens with Popper's having a clear advantage at 2 locations.

July 14 Predictions

Yeah, Mr. Popper's Penguins beat out 3D TF3 in admissions 3/4 days last weekend but did not beat both versions (3D/2D) of Transformers combined. Weekdays, MPP is already beating Transformers combined today.

I think TF3's opening weekend record proved it was big.

Transformers 3

5-day Opening weekend: $5,126,924
Weekdays (OW): $1,340,217
Opening week (8-day): $6,467,141

	Thursday adm.	(so far)		July 14
Rank	Title	LW	TW	% chg
1	Harry Potter And The Deathly Hallows: Part 2 (3D English)	--	62,089	--
2	Transformers: Dark of the Moon 3D	14,965	5,155	-65.6%
3	Mr. Popper's Penguins	7,002	4,306	-38.5%
4	Harry Potter And The Deathly Hallows: Part 2 (English)	--	4,291	--
5	Harry Potter And The Deathly Hallows: Part 2 (3D Cantonese)	--	2,342	--

Harry Potter 7-2 admissions: 68,722

I am pretty sure that both Transformers 3's non-holiday OD and Spider-Man 3's OD record are going down. This is grossing over 1m today. I don't think it will beat Transformers 3's single day gross...it'll have to wait until the weekend to do that.

Notes:

- Tintin has been moved up to November 24.

- Snow Flower and the Secret Fan, Insidious come out August 25.

- The re-release of Battle Royale in 3D is set for September 1.

- Puss in Boots is set for release January 21, 2012.

	Thursday adm.			July 14
Rank	Title	LW	TW	% chg
1	Harry Potter And The Deathly Hallows: Part 2 (3D English)	--	87,422	--
2	Mr. Popper's Penguins	28,289	16,101	-43.1%
3	Transformers: Dark of the Moon 3D	26,993	11,212	-58.5%
4	Harry Potter And The Deathly Hallows: Part 2 (English)	--	7,952	--
5	Harry Potter And The Deathly Hallows: Part 2 (3D Cantonese)	--	6,158	--

Harry Potter 7-2 admissions: 101,532 (Opening Day)

3D share (English + Chinese): 92.2%
2D share: 7.8%

Well, it's definitely past Transformers 3's OD but we will have to wait until actuals to find out how close it is to Spider-Man 3's OD record ($960,000). My estimate at this time is $950,000 and the range should be anywhere from $910,000-$975,000. 1m is unfortunately out of reach. I expected at least 90,000 for the English version so the very small increase from pre-sales to final admissions was a slight surprise. We'll have to wait until next time for our first 1m OD movie.

Mr. Popper's Penguins had an excellent hold but it will drop bigger on Saturday/Sunday due to Harry's blowout showtimes (see below). Transformers also had a great hold. I thought it would drop much harder. Weekend should see slightly bigger drops.

	Friday adm.	(so far)			July 15
Rank	Title	LW	TW	WKD % chg	QD % chg
1	Harry Potter And The Deathly Hallows: Part 2 (3D English)	--	53,109	--	-14.5%
2	Transformers: Dark of the Moon 3D	19,804	7,025	-64.5%	+36.3%
3	Mr. Popper's Penguins	8,525	5,987	-29.8%	+39.0%
4	Harry Potter And The Deathly Hallows: Part 2 (English)	--	4,257	--	-0.8%
5	Harry Potter And The Deathly Hallows: Part 2 (3D Cantonese)	--	3,251	--	+38.8%

That's still very good for Harry Potter. I think it will increase slightly today. Maybe it can even gross 1m?

Not bad for Transformers. Let's see if it break 15,000 admissions today. Mr. Popper's Penguins had an exceptional drop. Too bad its showtimes are getting somewhat cut for Harry Potter. I think it could fall somewhere around 65% Saturday.


Harry Potter 7-2 Saturday showings watch

Pacific Place - 22 showings (3 morning shows) 3D English
Palace APM - 27 showings (4 morning shows) 3D English; 4 showings (1 morning) 2D English; 3 showings (1 morning) 3D Chinese; 34 showings combined
Tsuen Wan - 18 showings (3 morning shows) 3D English; 3 showings (1 morning) 2D English; 21 showings combined
Palace IFC - 21 showings (3 morning shows) 3D English
Festival Walk - 26 showings (4 morning shows) 3D English; 3 showings 2D English; 3 showings (1 morning show) 3D Chinese; 32 showings combined
The One - 31 showings (5 morning shows) 3D English; 2 showings 2D English; 33 showings combined

The biggest casualties of these increased showings for HP come from Beach Spike, The Tree of Life and Mr. Popper's Penguins. Transformers, for the most part, was largely unaffected.

Speaking of which, Transformers 3 has a big lead in showtimes in the business districts; and a slight lead everywhere else. Either way, Harry Potter should be able to gross over 1m both days (Sat/Sun) barring any major frontloadedness. Interesting to note though that HP7-1 did 29.68% of its opening weekend admissions on its opening day. If HP7-2 follows the same route, it will finish with 350,110 admissions for the weekend.

		Thursday Actuals				July 14
LW	TW	Title	Last Thu. (USD)	Thursday (USD)	% chg	Total
--	1	Harry Potter And The Deathly Hallows Part 2	--	$790,625	--	$790,625
1	2	Transformers: Dark of the Moon	$304,626	$113,993	-62.6%	$9,120,164
2	3	Mr. Popper's Penguins	$154,491	$88,826	-42.5%	$1,459,388
4	4	The Tree Of Life	$22,851	$11,880	-48.0%	$210,463
3	5	Beach Spike	$29,141	$6,236	-78.6%	$171,964
8	6	Microsex Office	$1,834	$1,832	-0.1%	$433,161
7	7	Sex & Zen: Extreme Ecstasy 3D	$2,066	$1,426	-31.0%	$5,248,641
9	8	Green Lantern 3D	$1,402	$1,400	-0.1%	$1,460,335
--	9	Certified Copy	--	$1,286	--	$28,232
--	10	Mysterious Island	--	$1,237	--	$7,000

Wow, that's a big overestimation. Pirates had an incredibly high ratio (even higher than Transformers) so I was expecting something quite similar. I can't believe it just barely beat out Transformers for the non-holiday record and did not even cross $800,000. Maybe WB will fudge the opening day record like Paramount did with Transformers. The good news is that it increased 100% from DH1's opening day, although that was released the weekend before Christmas. 4m is still on the table but it will need to have a robust Saturday/Sunday for that to happen. Transformers should do around $525,000 for the weekend. Mr. Popper's Penguins will have 2 great days of drops and then terrible holds on Saturday/Sunday. Nice for The Tree of Life. $45,000 should be achievable. Beach Spike dropped like a rock and will fall even further this weekend. I don't know where or why Green Lantern/Microsex Office are still playing. Really weird grosses for both. The total for Mysterious Island is an estimate (website labeled it as Inception).

	Friday adm.				July 15
Rank	Title	LW	TW	WKD % chg	QD % chg
1	Harry Potter And The Deathly Hallows Part 2 (3D English)	--	75,251	--	-13.9%
2	Mr. Popper's Penguins	30,289	18,014	-40.5%	+11.9%
3	Transformers: Dark of the Moon 3D	33,239	13,088	-60.6%	+16.7%
4	Harry Potter And The Deathly Hallows Part 2 (English)	--	6,741	--	-15.2%
5	Harry Potter And The Deathly Hallows Part 2 (3D Cantonese)	--	5,427	--	-11.9%

	Saturday adm.	(so far)			July 16
Rank	Title	LW	TW	WKD % chg	QD % chg
1	Harry Potter And The Deathly Hallows Part 2 (3D English)	--	69,129	--	+30.2%
2	Transformers: Dark of the Moon 3D	29,344	12,046	-58.9%	+71.5%
3	Mr. Popper's Penguins	15,642	8,494	-45.7%	+41.9%
4	Harry Potter And The Deathly Hallows Part 2 (English)	--	6,170	--	+44.9%
5	Harry Potter And The Deathly Hallows Part 2 (3D Cantonese)	--	5,351	--	+64.6%

	Saturday adm.				July 16
Rank	Title	LW	TW	WKD % chg	QD % chg
1	Harry Potter And The Deathly Hallows Part 2 (3D English)	--	108,526	--	+44.2%
2	Mr. Popper's Penguins	56,921	23,933	-58.0%	+32.9%
3	Transformers: Dark of the Moon 3D	53,896	22,151	-58.9%	+69.2%
4	Harry Potter And The Deathly Hallows Part 2 (English)	--	10,535	--	+56.3%
5	Harry Potter And The Deathly Hallows Part 2 (3D Cantonese)	--	8,766	--	+61.5%

	Sunday adm.	(so far)			July 17
Rank	Title	LW	TW	WKD % chg	QD % chg
1	Harry Potter And The Deathly Hallows Part 2 (3D English)	--	71,737	--	+3.8%
2	Transformers: Dark of the Moon 3D	30,220	13,023	-56.9%	+8.1%
3	Mr. Popper's Penguins	18,940	10,910	-42.4%	+28.4%
4	Harry Potter And The Deathly Hallows Part 2 (English)	--	7,666	--	+24.2%
5	Harry Potter And The Deathly Hallows Part 2 (3D Cantonese)	--	7,132	--	+33.3%

	Sunday adm.				July 17
Rank	Title	LW	TW	WKD % chg	QD % chg
1	Harry Potter And The Deathly Hallows Part 2 (3D English)	--	104,809	--	-3.4%
2	Mr. Popper's Penguins	59,544	26,442	-55.6%	+10.5%
3	Transformers: Dark of the Moon 3D	52,632	21,559	-59.0%	-2.7%
4	Harry Potter And The Deathly Hallows Part 2 (English)	--	11,349	--	+7.7%
5	Harry Potter And The Deathly Hallows Part 2 (3D Cantonese)	--	11,234	--	+28.2%

	Weekend adm.			Jul 14-17
Rank	Title	LW	TW	% chg
1	Harry Potter And The Deathly Hallows Part 2 (3D English)	--	376,008	--
2	Mr. Popper's Penguins	175,043	84,490	-51.7%
3	Transformers: Dark of the Moon 3D	166,760	68,010	-59.2%
4	Harry Potter And The Deathly Hallows Part 2 (English)	--	36,577	--
5	Harry Potter And The Deathly Hallows Part 2 (3D Cantonese)	--	31,585	--

Harry Potter 3D admissions - 407,593
Total admissions - 444,170

3D share - 91.8%
2D share - 8.2%

July 14 Recap

July 28

Wu Xia

OW - $450,000
Total - $1,050,000

This weekend will feature 5 new films but only 1 will pack any punch. Wu Xia is Donnie Yen's latest martial arts flick. Fresh from his success of the Ip Man films, Donnie Yen jumps right back into his niche and hopes to entice those not interested in robots, magic or animated pandas.

Even though it did not open well in China, this film should do slightly better in Hong Kong given that Donnie Yen is more well known here. Theaters will still be playing Harry Potter and Kung Fu Panda this week so it will have to fight for screens. Most likely, it will be put on 1 screen given Donnie Yen's recent track record here with The Lost Bladesman opening to over 500k and the Ip Man films.

In a weak local summer year, this could shine but ultimately it will fall into the shadows of the big blockbusters. For now, an opening weekend of about $450,000 is possible although that can go up into the $600,000 territory. Summer will save it and push it over 1m even with Captain America/Smurfs coming out the week after. Cars 2 and Rise Of The Planet Of The Apes will most definitely steal away its remaining showtimes as those are expected to be mid-sized hits.

As for the other openers, Dylan Dog looks like scraps. Nowhere Boy is an arthouse film and Doraemon will only appeal to little children. The Beaver may look like a drama but the beaver may be too much for moviegoers here which should limit its chances and opening weekend.

Harry Potter actual - $3.7m

Notes:

- Contagion moves to September 8.

- Final Destination 5 might move to August 18.

- Cars 2 will have special screenings in IMAX/regular theaters starting on July 30 for 2 weekends. Release date is August 11.

- Kung Fu Panda 2 will be shown on the 4D screen when it comes out July 21. Transformers 3's last day is July 20.

	Monday adm.				July 18
Rank	Title	LW	TW	WKD % chg	QD % chg
1	Harry Potter And The Deathly Hallows Part 2 (3D English)	--	42,777	--	-59.2%
2	Mr. Popper's Penguins	20,752	11,300	-45.5%	-57.3%
3	Transformers: Dark of the Moon 3D	18,106	9,214	-49.1%	-57.3%
4	Harry Potter And The Deathly Hallows Part 2 (3D Cantonese)	--	4,437	--	-60.5%
5	Harry Potter And The Deathly Hallows Part 2 (English)	--	4,246	--	-62.6%

Harry Potter 7-2 Admissions - 51,460

Pretty good number for Harry Potter. It should be around $350,000 for the day. If it keeps up this pace, it will be at 4.8m by Wednesday.

Thursday Schedules

Pacific Place
New	Holdovers	Leaving
Kung Fu Panda 2 (3D English) - 12 showings	Harry Potter And The Deathly Hallows: Part 2 (3D English) - 14 showings (▼ 18)
	Mr. Popper's Penguins - 5 showings (▼ 6)
	The Tree Of Life - 1 showing (▼ 5)
	Transformers: Dark of the Moon 3D - 4 showings (-)

Palace APM
New	Holdovers	Leaving
Kung Fu Panda 2 (3D Cantonese) - 11 showings	Harry Potter And The Deathly Hallows: Part 2 (3D English) - 14 showings (▼ 24)	Transformers: Dark of the Moon
Kung Fu Panda 2 (Cantonese) - 5 showings	Harry Potter And The Deathly Hallows: Part 2 (3D Cantonese) - 2 showings (▼ 3)	Beach Spike
Love Is The Only Answer - 4 showings	Harry Potter And The Deathly Hallows: Part 2 (English) - 2 showings (▼ 6)
	Mr. Popper's Penguins - 5 showings (-)
	Transformers: Dark of the Moon 3D - 3 showings (▼ 4)

Olympian City
New	Holdovers	Leaving
Kung Fu Panda 2 (3D Cantonese) - 8 showings	Harry Potter And The Deathly Hallows: Part 2 (3D English) - 11 showings (▼ 19)	Beach Spike
Kung Fu Panda 2 (Cantonese) - 4 showings	Harry Potter And The Deathly Hallows: Part 2 (3D Cantonese) - 2 showings (▼ 4)
Kung Fu Panda 2 (3D English) - 5 showings	Harry Potter And The Deathly Hallows: Part 2 (English) - 3 showings (▼ 5)
	Mr. Popper's Penguins - 4 showings (-)
	Transformers: Dark of the Moon - 1 showing (-)
	Transformers: Dark of the Moon 3D - 3 showings (-)

Festival Walk
New	Holdovers	Leaving
Kung Fu Panda 2 (3D Cantonese) - 8 showings	Harry Potter And The Deathly Hallows: Part 2 (3D English) - 15 showings (▼ 21)	The Tree Of Life
Kung Fu Panda 2 (Cantonese) - 2 showings	Harry Potter And The Deathly Hallows: Part 2 (3D Cantonese) - 2 showings (▼ 3)	Transformers: Dark of the Moon
Kung Fu Panda 2 (3D English) - 8 showings	Harry Potter And The Deathly Hallows: Part 2 (English) - 2 showings (▼ 5)
Kung Fu Panda 2 (English) - 3 showings	Mr. Popper's Penguins - 5 showings (▼ 8)
	Transformers: Dark of the Moon 3D - 3 showings (▼ 4)

The business districts aren't giving Kung Fu Panda 2 that many screens which is kind of understandable but still disappointing. Other places are giving Kung Fu Panda 2 more showtimes but less peak/premium showtimes like 7 PM.

Business so far has been very close. Kung Fu Panda 2 has a very slight lead due to the afternoon business but otherwise individual theaters are reporting varied results. Some theaters are having relatively weak KFP2 sales while others are extremely strong and are beating out Harry Potter 2:1.

Weekend will be very interesting as both KFP2 and Harry Potter are expected to increase in business, moreso with Panda 2.

Predictions for the upcoming weekend will come later tonight.

	Tuesday adm.				July 19
Rank	Title	LW	TW	WKD % chg	QD % chg
1	Harry Potter And The Deathly Hallows Part 2 (3D English)	--	58,678	--	+37.2%
2	Mr. Popper's Penguins	33,827	15,673	-53.7%	+38.7%
3	Transformers: Dark of the Moon 3D	24,853	11,606	-53.3%	+26.0%
4	Harry Potter And The Deathly Hallows Part 2 (3D Cantonese)	--	5,767	--	+30.0%
5	Harry Potter And The Deathly Hallows Part 2 (English)	--	5,569	--	+31.2%

Another good day for Harry Potter. It should be able to make around 1.1 or 1.2m from the 3 weekdays combined. Mr. Popper's Penguins is losing its ground to Transformers. It looks just about done.

July 21 Predictions

Kung Fu Panda 2 Opening Day watch

Palace IFC (@ 10 PM Tuesday)

9:20 AM - 21/84 (morning show)
9:50 AM - 36/95 (morning show)
11:50 AM - 20/94
1:40 PM - 25/94
2:30 PM - 30/95
3:30 PM - 14/94
4:20 PM - 22/95
5:20 PM - 20/94
6:10 PM - 34/95
7:55 PM - 56/84
9:50 PM - 30/95
Total - 308/1019 = 30.2% full

Not bad for Kung Fu Panda 2...it's clearly behind Transformers 3 and Harry Potter's pre-sales but it should make up for it in walk-ins.

	Thursday adm.	(so far)		July 21
Rank	Title	LW	TW	% chg
1	Kung Fu Panda 2 (3D Cantonese)	--	20,300	--
2	Harry Potter And The Deathly Hallows: Part 2 (3D English)	62,089	17,599	-71.7%
3	Transformers: Dark of the Moon 3D	5,155	3,361	-34.8%
4	Kung Fu Panda 2 (Cantonese)	--	2,565	--
5	Mr. Popper's Penguins	4,306	1,915	-55.5%

Not terribly great pre-sales for Kung Fu Panda 2. I'd say it will make around 55,000 admissions for the day with an outside chance of 60,000 (for the 3D Cantonese version). Let's see if it can make a 3 multiplier for the day. That is a huge drop for Harry Potter. It could make 36,000 admissions which would be a 59% drop from opening day. I'm kind of surpised by that drop by Transformers but it's been struggling to post a 2 multiplier the past 3 days so a 6,000 total for the day would bring it to a 47% drop. Weak hold by Mr. Popper's Penguins but it was expected since it has gradually faded against Transformers the last week.