I just stumbled upon a nice pattern that happened last decade and decided to create this thread. With 3D and inflation $150m is catching up to become the new $100m sooner than expected.

Here is the number of movies in the last decade

2010 - 15
2009 - 18
2008 - 11
2007 - 13
2006 - 11
2005 - 13
2004 - 11
2003 - 8
2002 - 13
2001 - 11
2000 - 10

Interesting to see so many 11's and 13's in succession.

2000 - was the first year to have 10 movies above $150m mark. Somehow after the first over-performance of 2002 we have the first year (and the only year last decade) that failed to have double-digit $150m movies.

2009 holds the record with 18 movies reaching $150m.

Here is the current list of 2011
1. The Hangover 2
2. Pirates of the Caribbean: On Strange Tides
3. Fast Five
4. Thor

Kung Fu Panda 2 will be in this list before this weekend. X-Men is a real toss-up at this time, which will be interesting to track from here on. Bridesmaids will take some time but will eventually reach this.

Coming Locks
1. Kung Fu Panda 2
2. Cars 2
3. Transformers: Dark of the Moon
4. Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part 2
5. The Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn: Part I
6. Bridesmaids

Likely
1. Happy Feet 2
2. The Adventures of Tintin: Secret of the Unicorn
3. Sherlock Holmes 2
4. Alvin and the Chipmunks: Chipwrecked

Other Possibilities:

1. X-Men: First Class
2. Captain America: The First Avenger
3. Mission: Impossible: Ghost Protocol
4. The Smurfs
5. Cowboys & Aliens
6. Puss In Boots
7. Zookeeper
Not all of these will make it, though we can always have some surprise breakout. So 2011 can still beat 2010.

Where do you see 2011 ending with?
I see that we make about 17 crossing 2010 just behind 2009.

Bridesmaids is a lock.

It is a lock for me as well..but well just maybe for now

Huh?

Somehow I thought it is still at $128m...changed it

Not locks.

^ We'll see

Happy Feet 2 isn't a lock.

You have Smurfs listed twice. I think Smurfs, Zookeeper, and Cowboys are longshots.

Tintin is just a possibility, albeit a strong one given the names and date. Not sure how much general audiences will care about this - we've seen nostalgia alone doesn't cut it - it has to assert its relevance to today.

These three are not locks, maybe a new category for semi-locks.

6. Sherlock Holmes 2
7. Alvin and the Chipmunks: Chipwrecked
8. Happy Feet 2

Alright made the last change....no more editing of the main post

KungFu Panda 2 joins the list this Friday (albeit with a decrease from Thursday)

1. The Hangover 2
2. Pirates of the Caribbean: On Strange Tides
3. Fast Five
4. Thor
5. Kung Fu Panda 2

I have it at around 17 as well. MI4 unless it moves has a long shot though so as Zookeeper and Puss in Boots.

Next up is Bridesmaids, it is already at $146.6m with weekend estimates, should cross this mark before next weekend itself.

Bridesmaids sneaks it just before Transformers

1. The Hangover 2
2. Pirates of the Caribbean: On Strange Tides
3. Fast Five
4. Thor
5. Kung Fu Panda 2
6. Bridesmaids
7. Transformers: Dark of the Moon

Next up is Cars 2. X-Men: First Class will miss this mark now. Harry Potter and the Deathly Hollows Part 2 will be joining this list quite quickly, if it does not make it by Sunday it should definitely cross it by Monday.

Cars 2 and Potter are both there now.

Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2 joins this list quickly. Cars 2 reaches at non-winning pace

1. The Hangover 2
2. Pirates of the Caribbean: On Strange Tides
3. Fast Five
4. Thor
5. Kung Fu Panda 2
6. Bridesmaids
7. Transformers: Dark of the Moon
8. Cars 2
9. Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2

Captain America is dropping way harder than I thought still though it should pass through $150m mark, definitely not this weekend, maybe by next Thursday and surely by next weekend. We'll have 10 movies to cross this mark by Summer and given the opening of Apes number 11 is also a possibility.

Captain America missed the mark by few thousands with $149,760,206 in the bank by Thursday 11th Aug.

Too bad XMen and Rio couldn't quite get to that 150 mark.

Captain America: The First Avenger becomes the 10th movie of 2011 to cross $150m

1. The Hangover 2
2. Pirates of the Caribbean: On Strange Tides
3. Fast Five
4. Thor
5. Kung Fu Panda 2
6. Bridesmaids
7. Transformers: Dark of the Moon
8. Cars 2
9. Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2
10. Captain America: The First Avenger

Looks like another one is coming up faster than expected. Apes should cross this mark in another 2 weeks. There is a small chance for Smurfs as well but that would depend on how much it drops in face of Spy Kids

Apes is coming close to this mark, it might not do it this weekend but it will surely cross the mark by next Monday.

I wonder when The Help will reach this mark

Apes will get there, that will make 11. Smurfs might get there, but with summer days over it's not guaranteed. Help might get there, but again, not a guarantee. As for movies in the next two months, there are no guarantees, and only a few with potential (with just as much potential to bomb).

In September, the only film with that potential IMHO is Contagion. Outbreak does adjust to over 120M, and this has a big cast with not much competition. Still, it's a long shot.

October, Real Steel has a shot, but I'm not personally feeling it. Musicals are dicey, but the original Footlosse does adjust to almost 190M, so I've got to give the remake a chance. The Three Musketeers is the only other one that could do it. I think there won't be a single 150M grosser that opens in September or October though.

November, Breaking Dawn Part 1 is the only lock. Happy Feet 2 has a pretty good shot. Puss in Boots, Immortals, Jack and Jill, The Muppets, and Arthur Christmas are all maybes.

December, nothing is a total lock here, but Chipmunks and Sherlock Holmes are pretty likely. Mission Impossible has a shot, as does Tin Tin and Girl with the Dragon Tatoo.

In all, I"m going to predict we end with 18 titles this year that end up grossing 150M. I hope something breaks out though and helps this year set the record.

Smurfs has virtually no chance now, 145m tops. September of course won't have anything, but I think something in October will find its way to 120m+, 150m seems challenging though. Probably wind up between 09 and 10.

Apes joins the list of $150m movies.

1. The Hangover 2
2. Pirates of the Caribbean: On Strange Tides
3. Fast Five
4. Thor
5. Kung Fu Panda 2
6. Bridesmaids
7. Transformers: Dark of the Moon
8. Cars 2
9. Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2
10. Captain America: The First Avenger
11. Rise of the Planet of the Apes

With 11 movies already reaching this mark 2011 is tied with 2010 at the end of summer. Looks like The Help will be the next to join this. The Smurfs still has a chance specially that the competition ahead is not big at all, it needs a multiplier of 5 from here on which is doable. Given that Sony does not care about milestones this might miss the mark

The Help is surely reaching this mark now probably by 3rd weekend of September. The Smurfs will be another $140m+ movie this year, we have quite a few now.