So...will it or will it not?

Right now, it is around $9 million behind Monsters Vs. Aliens (which did just have its boosted weekdays though). Its Saturday/Sunday and next week's dailies will be stronger.

How to Train Your Dragon is looking at a sub-30% drop this weekend and a $18-19 million 4th weekend total.

That means it will likely beat Alice in Wonderland's fourth weekend and might make it among the 20 biggest 4th weekends ever. Next weekend there's still no competition and neither is much the weekend after (Furry Vengeance will hardly be big). So we might see two more $10+ million weekends after this.

I say, yes, it will pass $200 million.

I'll say yes as well

I'll go ahead and say yes, also. But it might require a boost when Shrek 4 opens.

I am going to say yes as well. I didn't see these kind of drops after Easter Weekend.

Looking at the numbers, I'm going to agree with Magnus and say $200m is a lock. It's going to be around $177m after it's fifth weekend. Monsters Vs Aliens total was $174.8m coming off a $8.5m fifth weekend (which Dragon is going to crush), and went on to gross $24m more from that. It doesn't even seem possible for Dragon to finish below it now.

$200m is a lock. Im thinking it can do over $210m

I upped the bar.

Who thinks it will pass $215 million now? After some consideration...I am still in! The WoM is phenonemal and there's absolutely no competition until Shrek 4 (and that being Dreamworks will help it somewhat too!).

In. I think it can beat Kung Fu Panda.

Yes. The absence of any major 3D releases until Shrek 4 will definitely help.

Indeed. It needs to make as much money as it can before Iron Man 2 opens. With some luck it'll be at $195+ million by then, though.

How big of an impact will losing IMAX screens really be, though, especially with Real3D still active? Avatar fell 40% despite losing plentiful of both IMAX and Real3D. Granted, Avatar is... Avatar, but I'm pretty sure Dragon will hold its own.

Monsters Vs. Aliens dropped 43.8% last year when Star Trek took its IMAX screens.

MvA didn't have the legs Dragon is showing. It was dropping an average of 37% prior to that weekend.

Of course Iron Man will be competition, but it's not even gonna get close on killing Dragon.

Cant wait to see this film. What intrigues me is that Dragon was put on the release schedule (for Nov 2009) back in the first half of the decade (along with Monsters vs Aliens). Im glad it turned out to be a success.

It is now tracking a bit over $3 million ahead of Monsters Vs. Aliens, but $15 million behind Kung Fu Panda.

However its fifth weekend is about twice as big as KFP's 5th weekend, so it'll keep making up ground. $205+ million is a lock at this point.


BTW, How to Train Your Dragon managed the 8th-biggest 5th weekend of all-time, if the actuals are a tad higher, it'll actually be the 7th best fifth weekend!! Its fifth weekend is bigger than Spider-Man's, Iron Man's and Shrek 2's!

After only five weeks on release it has already passed the multiplier of 4 and is still going strong!

Saw this yesterday, now I understand why its holding up well. Very enjoyable!!

I think it's time to declare it a lock. Sure Iron Man 2 will hurt everything, but of all films this should hold up best despite the IMAX loss. WoM is just too good and it still has 3D.

Potential for $300+ million?

Considering how almost everyone is predicting $350+ million for Kung Fu Panda 2...I'm not sure why a sequel to Dragon should perform any worse considering it has the best WoM for an animated film since, probably, Ratatouille or maybe even since Shrek 2.

Oh and just watch it make around $12 million next weekend. It'll end up beating Finding Nemo's multiplier. I mean WTF?! It'll have a better multiplier than ALL Pixar films except for Toy Story (which barely counts considering it was released in 1995).

Yeah I'm pretty shocked that it's going to end up beating KFP, something I thought was impossible before it came out. But when it's still selling out in its fifth weekend (when I saw it yesterday), something went very right.

Plus, Mother's Day is that weekend, and being the only major family film out (Furry Vengeance is gonna flop bad) will be a big boost.

Hmm, I'm surprised at its current week-to-week drops which are in the 30%-area. Should be holding up better. However, $215 million should be safe considering it'll be at almost $195 million by the time Iron Man 2 hits.

Still $15 million behind KFP, but already $6 million ahead of MVA. In the worst-case scenario it'll finish with $212-215 million...best-case - probably somewhere around $220 million.

Two crazy things to consider: First, this is pretty much locked to spend SEVEN straight weekends in the Top 3. Second, with Elm Street disappointing somewhat and looking insanely frontloaded, this is looking really good to spend EIGHT straight weekends in the Top 5. Pre-Avatar, what were the last films to achieve those two accomplishments?

Night at the Museum had eight weeks in the Top 5 too, but only six in the Top 3...