New

Hide and Seek 3,005
Alone in the Dark 2,124
Aliens of the Deep (IMAX) 27
Fascination 10

Expanding

Are We There Yet? 2,710 +1
Coach Carter 2,574 +22
The Aviator 2,503 +242
Million Dollar Baby 2,010 +1,863
Sideways 1,694 +995
Finding Neverland 1,258 +389
Ray 510 +217
Hotel Rwanda 417 +98
A Love Song for Bobby Long 20+ (est.) +19
The Chorus 24 +23

Steady

Racing Stripes 3,185
Assault on Precinct 13 2,297
The Phantom of the Opera 1,511
Enduring Love 2

Declining

Meet the Fockers 3,015 -431
White Noise 2,115 -132
In Good Company 1,960 -3
Elektra 1,530 -1,673
Lemony Snicket's A Series of Unfortunate Events 793 -731
Ocean's Twelve 702 -573
National Treasure 644 -427
Closer 348 -156
Darkness 187 -235
A Very Long Engagement 159 -42
Shall We Dance 117 -73
The Polar Express 112 -89
The Motorcycle Diaries 60 -15
Alexander 39 -63
The Machinist 9 -2

All 5 oscar best picture nominees are expanding. Hide and Seek is over 3000 theaters. A week after the huge snowstorm, and a week before Super Bowl. All factors considered, should be an exciting and robust weekend.

Hide and Seek is the first 3,000+ theaters opener in 2005. This has a great shot at $20+ million, in my opinion.

I could see it opening under 12 million before I could see it opening over 20. The word of mouth is AWFUL on this one, and the R rating will keep a lot of people from seeing it. Can this really do just 3 million less then White Noise, which had tremendous marketing and a PG-13?

Hide and Seek has good marketing to. The trailers are shown non-stop, as are the commercials. The R rating is the only restricting thing I can honestly say might affect it. Nothing else. WOM won't hit it until next week. And, WOM wasn't exactly excellent for White Noise, yet it'll top $60 million. The Forgotten didn't have great WOM either, but okay enough for $60+ million.

No, Racing Stripes and Elektra were the first one.

Oh yeah, I forgot. Well, first horror. :razz:

But The Forgotten and White Noise were both PG-13, and by and large it's been proven that PG-13 thriller/horrors have better legs then Rs (not to mention they didn't have the Superbowl in weekend two). And maybe there has been good marketing, but I just haven't seen it. Only about two tv ads, and both of them had nothing that made it look that great. The Forgotten had that money shot of someone getting sucked into the sky, and White Noise had EVP and a lack of competition. There's nothing that makes Hide and Seek look any different then a totally mediocre movie, and it does have significantly more competition.

Xiayun, there is another film opening this weekend, called "The Painting". I've never heard of it, but it is showing at my local theater starting on Friday. So it has at least one theater (though I'm certain it has quite a few more). Anyway else know anything about this?

Huge increases for Million Dollar Baby and Sideways. I think at least $14-15M and $5-6M are both easily within reach for the two.

You'll be quite the happy camper this weekend, Libs, won't ya? Your two favs making the top ten and all... :razz:

I think there's waay too much competition from the Oscar films for Hide and Seek to maintain such a large portion of the adult audience necessary for $20m.

Totally agree. Actually, I'm starting to think Million Dollar Baby could squeak past Hide and Seek to be #1 over the weekend. I guess we'll see.

The majority of 18-25 year olds would probably pick Hide and Seek over Million Dollar Baby or Sideways. You all know how teens are. Million Dollar Baby should have a great weekend, but I don't see it or other oscar nominees affecting Hide and Seek.

The huge theatre count will help Hide and Seek as well as the fact that De Niro has been seen and liked by many folks lately in Meet the Fockers. It should make at least $18 million this weekend.

Million Dollar Baby and Sideways got great increases, I see around $12 million for the former and $5+ million for the latter.

Ray's theatre count expansion as well as the noms, might push it past $75 million.

Why would the "majority" necessarily pick it? You mentioned teens, but the R rating of Hide and Seek prevents them from buying a ticket to it. The other two movies are both (now, at least) high-profile, now that they just scored Oscar nominations. That kind of thing definitely boosts box office, and considering competition is pretty intense, Hide and Seek could possibly be limited a bit.

The biggest possible surprise of the weekend would be if Million Dollar Baby came out on top!

But, past age 35, who's going to see Hide and Seek? This movie doesn't have a large enough fanbase to just get a $20m opening in January, admist competition from FIVE films that people still need to catch up on. It might capture the young adult base, but the film doesn't appeal in enough demographics (when compared with the others) to open to such numbers in January.

While it'll probably be #1, don't expect it to be $7m or so above the #2 film

Meet the Fockers - 3,015 / -431
Are We There Yet? - 2,710 / +1
Coach Carter - 2,574 / +22
Alone in the Dark - 2,124
White Noise - 2,115 / -132
In Good Company - 1,960/ -3
Elektra - 1,530 / -1,673

Updated the first post.

Correctamundo
Most people dont care too much for these uhum oscar movies that they have selected. I can see Hide & Seek winning by a huge margin. I really dont like how people are influenced to watch a movie just because the academy tells them to by giving it the awards

I used the wrong word, Libs. I should have said teens to "young adults" who can actually watch the movie. 17-25 year olds can all watch it, and those people will most likely go to Hide and Seek. People over 25 will probably see an oscar nominee, though not everyone goes to movies based on the "Nominated for __ Oscars" slogan. And even with that, you still have plenty of people over the age of 25 who would go see Hide and Seek. I can see it topping $20 million, and MDB with around $14 million.

Great! I'll be able to finally see Million Dollar Baby!!

I agree. I think some people don't realize how much Million Dollar Baby has going for it. Mystic River was a highly acclaimed movie, also by Eastwood, and it was one of the most rented titles of the year. Million Dollar Baby is opening relatively wide for such a film in 2,000+ theatres. Morgan Freeman and Clint Eastwood will be able to attract lots of older folks and the positioning of it right after the Oscar nominations announcement is perfect. This movie appeals to people on many levels. Some will want to see it because of the Oscar noms, others because of the cast, others because of the story.

I always found it moronic that people would only go to see a movie based on the number of awards a movie received like they need some sort of approval instead of checking out what the content of the movie is about

The thing is, most of these smaller movies (like Sideways or Million Dollar Baby, for example) aren't released wide *until* they're nominated for Oscars.