The two other films that I have found that Universal has released recently in theaters in under 1600 theaters is two films that made BJs top hundred meaning they are some of his favs they are About a Boy and Love Actually those two films had massive 500+ increases in ther second wknds :wink: so I expect this film to have somewhere around 2,200 - 2,500 sreens next wknd to capitalize on the films awesome performance so far than I expect a final increase in its third wknd to pursh it a little under 3000 theaters where it shall settle untill a wknd after Presidents Day My optomism also expects the film to boost 20%-40% next wknd thanks to the massive theater increase it will receive and the great WOM that is spreading like wildfire thoughout the U.S. :wink: After the two wknds of 400-600 theater increases i expect it to leg its way beond 100m and top out around 140m-160m :wink:

Can you taste the optomism \:D/

Your 10x-12x multiplier for In Good Company makes me smile, BJ. :razz:

Hey, there's gotta be atleast one risky predictor. :wink:

I think this is going to be like the ring, WOM is going to spread fast and will manage 5-6 wknds well over 10m than after that it should have legs much better than the ring did because it is a film that operates completely of WOM and not hipe :wink: the ring I feel was made out to be alot better than it realy was though I have not seen it I have met many who were disapointed with it there main reason was they felt it was not scary enough. As for this film, I feel that it is living up to the hipe better than the ring ever did it opened with about 800 thousand less $$$ in around 400 less screens :wink: And it has yet to show what it can realy do at the box office. Im still hoping for that 20m+ second wknd :razz: but I do fell that an increase is a lock. The ring had a multiplyer over 8.6, almost a 9.0, and it was a horror/thriller film I dont think a mutiplyer over 10.0 is to much for this film :wink: We shall just have to wait and see :wink:

this is not risky predicting, its predicting based on facts and this film has much more in its favor than against it :wink:

You do realize that The Ring never had one weekend over $20 million.... right?

Yeah. I can't wait 'till we're in January '06 and we look at the '05 rankings...

1. Star Wars Episode III: Revenge of the Sith - $370m
2. Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire - $255m
3. Batman Begins - $210m
4. In Good Company - $160m

BJ, About a Boy was released in the summer, which is why it had around a 5x multiplier. That's about all we can really hope for - $82m. And, AAB had REALLY good WOM.

About a Boy may have had very good WOM but that did not benifit its run much because it came out in the summer time, the time when the mindless fun exiting blockbusters come out, the films opening wknd pta shows that it does not have nearly the apeal to the people that IGC has. Heck IGC is probably my most anticipated of the year now fallowed by sin city and that film had the strong hold for months now. The PTA is way larger than the rings also, the fact that this is the biggest opening for a film under 1600 screens since the blair witch project shows its massive apeal to pretty much everyone. If about a Boy were released in january or febuary and showed great WOm like it did than instead of having the natural consistent summer 40% drop it would have had the awesome 20%-25% that films that are very well recieved get this time of year. The thing I must stess most is PTA this films is massive almost 2000 dollars more per theater than about a bow which opened in around 250 less theaters and the ring with opened in around 400 more. fir openingwknd grose it pulled in around 800 thousand beind the ring I think that it will top the rings second wknd and proove its dominace.

Also for the rankings IGC will not make the top 6-8 there is going to be a lot a breaking out this year as has been shown already :wink:

the rings apeal as i have said before was not nearly as massive as IGC is now. Take into acout that the ring would havee only had 4 wknds over 10m if it were not for halloween. the ring also showed horible late run legs during november and decenber of course it had already racked up over 100m in five wks. IGC will without a doubt have way better legs im talking awesome not one drop over 30% for 12 wknds :wink: in its 5th wknd of wide release it will have two awesome holiday wknds in a row, oh yeah, that will realy help it stay afloat and by then it will be far enough in its run with all the great wom that it will not drop over 30% after the boost is over :wink:

BJ, you are talking about one of the films with the most suprising legs of the decade. I don't think you can predict something like The Ring, MBFGW, Pirates of the Carribean, The Sixth Sense, or Titanic. Once they have already shown great legs, it's one thing, but when they begin to show those amazing legs, they virtually always take everyone by suprise.

Are you going to say that a film that opens in 400 less theaters than the ring with around 800 thousand less dollars and a killer average is not suprising?

I never said it was posible to predict a film like this because all the films you just compared it to are like this film they all came out of nowhere and did great. Im saying I expect this film to do the same if not better than the ring and pirates in terms of multiplyer. I think this will make more than the ring did and I cant wait to read the numbers the day it does :wink: I dont think that I am being unreasonable especialy after seeing the way this film performed in the three day and the four day.

I have very high hopes for this film and I hope to see them come true

For this movie to make $20.169m over the weekend, BJ, a...

400% increase is needed on Friday (From a projected $830k Thursday gross), a 100% increase on Saturday, and a -7% Sunday drop.

For it to INCREASE, try: 350% on Friday, 70% on Saturday, and -30% on Sunday.

Still unlikely...

BJ, it's a lost cause. This will not do $20+ million this weekend. I'll bet my predicting life on it. :razz:

its all in how bad the crowd wants it, I had made that prediction on friday when I thought the opening wknd would be over 16m. Now Im just hoping that it can get over 20m In no longer saying it will but I am say that it will increase fro last wknd :wink:

Awg where is your proof that it can not increase to over 20m? I made that prediction 4 days ago, I just never got around to changing it, I wanted to wait for the tuesday numbers.

Well...

If IT does increase 1500 theatres, there's the slight chance. But, with a Ring-sized increase (bringing it to 2200-ish, which won't happen), it'll still need a pretty high PTA to get the $20m.

Okay. I gave you what was needed for a 1.2-ish percent increase. Can you go do some research and find me the LAST movie to have performed like that...in wide release? 350/70/-30. Go get it, beyotch!

And, while you're at it, search for the number of movies released in January that had 6.0x multipliers (or, expanders). Did Big Fish have a 6.0x multiplier?

PREDICT THE SECOND WEEKEND

Okay, here's a lil' competition just to make things a bit interesting and to stop the consistent "diss BJ's mentality" stuff (Even though it's damn entertaining, BJ ). Just, simply, predict the second weekend. Predict the Friday gross, the Saturday gross, the Sunday gross, and the weekend total. The winner will receive the opportunity to gain a post in an "un-useless" manner by congratulating themselves or humoring themselves or partaking in self-deprecating humor as if it were no big deal or whatnot.

My Predictions:
Friday: $3.182m
Saturday: $4.773m
Sunday: $2.62515m
Total: $10.580150m (-25.96%)

BTW, BJ, check your PM in a while.

Big fish had a 5.1 or a 5.2 :wink:

Just checked. It was: 4.1440386278055237958840769054602

Hehe. That's when you subtract the $$ it made prior to the wide-release.

2nd Wide Weekend: $10,000,000 (-30%)

The PTA has to drop.

The main problem I am having with this film is finding a decent comparison, the only film to open at the same level as this film in recent years was the ring, and that film went on to make over 100m :wink:

I'll give you even 98.% correct wednesday and thursday numbers.

Wednesday $687,000 (-18.00%)
Thursday $764,000 (+11.21%)

Friday $2,591,794 (+239.24%)
Saturday $3,986,179 (+53.80%)
Sunday $2,112,675 (-47%)

Weekend - $8,690,647 (-39.18%)

Error margin +/- $250

Friday: $3,300,000
Saturday: $4,620,000 (+40%)
Sunday: $2,864,000 (-38%)

Weekend: $10,784,000 (-24.6%)

...And if it's outside the measly error margin of 250 dollars?

Im going to call 500%+ friday increase but I still have not setup a wknd prediction I need to film a similar film that does not have the word ring in its title :wink:

Hmm, that would be serious blow to my superior box office knowledge and power of prediction.

But anyway, that can't happen, so we wont worry about it.








Universe could implode though.