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 Super Duper Tsunami Tuesday 
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Post Re: Super Duper Tuesday
FL is going to be super close for the REPS, if the polls arent off of course.

And did anyone think of the potential of a Hispanic Backlash and NOT a white one perhaps from the SC results? I thought Hillary would take a hit in California and Flordia, and other states to make them closer, but it hasn't happened yet. And Cali. has a big Hispanic Population, so..Cali hasn't changed in terms of polls for months and months now. I'm going to doubt it will in a week.

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Tue Jan 29, 2008 6:56 pm
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Post Re: Super Duper Tuesday
Still hoping Romney overtakes McCain. Unlikely, though.

I'd love to see Rudy place fourth.


Tue Jan 29, 2008 7:00 pm
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Post Re: Super Duper Tuesday
Dkmuto wrote:
Still hoping Romney overtakes McCain. Unlikely, though.

I'd love to see Rudy place fourth.



Fourth would almost assure he drops out tonight or tomorrow I'm sure. And 3rd, best he can do if the polls arent totally wrong (dont see how they can be underprojecting him by 15+ pts though, and vice versa for McCain and Romney) would mean he'll still drop out soonish. Since he put all his money into FL alone, and not leading in any state, coming off loss in FL would basically mean no wins for him. SO he's screwed pretty much. As is Huckabee.

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“Gods are great ... but the heart is greater. For it is from our hearts they come, and to our hearts they shall return.”
“We were like gods at the dawning of the world, & our joy was so bright we could see nothing else but the other.”
“There are three things all wise men fear: the sea in storm, a night with no moon, and the anger of a gentle man.”
“You have to pretend you get an endgame. You have to carry on like you will; otherwise, you can't carry on at all.”
"Paper is dead without words / Ink idle without a poem / All the world dead without stories."


Tue Jan 29, 2008 7:05 pm
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Post Re: Super Duper Tuesday
Dkmuto wrote:
Still hoping Romney overtakes McCain. Unlikely, though.


Romney is thus far well ahead of McCain in delegates. The nomination could still be his.


Tue Jan 29, 2008 7:10 pm
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Post Re: Super Duper Tuesday
The California polls were still mostly taken before Obama's SC win and Kennedy's endorsement, so we don't know the effect yet.

I'm following some of the exit polls discussion, and certainly hard to tell who is winning. Romney needs this win for the momentum since he is trailing in the polls in both NY and CA.

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Tue Jan 29, 2008 7:25 pm
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Post Re: Super Duper Tuesday
xiayun wrote:
The California polls were still mostly taken before Obama's SC win and Kennedy's endorsement, so we don't know the effect yet.

I'm following some of the exit polls discussion, and certainly hard to tell who is winning. Romney needs this win for the momentum since he is trailing in the polls in both NY and CA.



The SurveyUSA poll gathered data from SUN only, so it would include the SC win, but nnot the Kennedy Endorsement. The Politico/CNN one gathered data from a few days before the SC Primary, and one day after, so it is probably most off if any of them are off.

Although, the polls show that only 4/5% of Californians havent made up their mind yet. And about 3/4 are certain of their choice. So I'm betting this is the reason why the polls havent changed for months, and are unlikely to flip around so much from just 7 days left.

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“Gods are great ... but the heart is greater. For it is from our hearts they come, and to our hearts they shall return.”
“We were like gods at the dawning of the world, & our joy was so bright we could see nothing else but the other.”
“There are three things all wise men fear: the sea in storm, a night with no moon, and the anger of a gentle man.”
“You have to pretend you get an endgame. You have to carry on like you will; otherwise, you can't carry on at all.”
"Paper is dead without words / Ink idle without a poem / All the world dead without stories."


Tue Jan 29, 2008 7:46 pm
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Post Re: Super Duper Tuesday
Clinton and Obama now tied in Connecticut. She was ahead by 14 points in the last survey.

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Tue Jan 29, 2008 8:37 pm
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Post Re: Super Duper Tuesday
Angela Merkel wrote:
Clinton and Obama now tied in Connecticut. She was ahead by 14 points in the last survey.


Huh?

Quote:
The first Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Connecticut’s Democratic Presidential Primary shows the race couldn’t possibly get any closer.


http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_ ... al_primary

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Tue Jan 29, 2008 9:49 pm
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Post Re: Super Duper Tuesday
mdana wrote:
Angela Merkel wrote:
Clinton and Obama now tied in Connecticut. She was ahead by 14 points in the last survey.


Huh?

Quote:
The first Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Connecticut’s Democratic Presidential Primary shows the race couldn’t possibly get any closer.


http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_ ... al_primary


Angela meant the last survey conducted on Connecticut, not necessarily by Rasmussen.

All previous Connecticut surveys.

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Tue Jan 29, 2008 9:53 pm
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Post Re: Super Duper Tuesday
It looks like Clinton is forfeiting a whole slew of smaller states, such as Kansas and Idaho. She is definitely counting on enough delegates from the two coasts to negate a larger slate of Obama wins in the heartland and South.

I can't wait for the next couple Northeastern polls. If Connecticut has fallen, and Massachusetts is likely to fall, what about New Jersey? How small can the gap be shrunk in New York? California is tightening as well -- Obama and Clinton are already tied in the Bay Area, and Obama likely leads in rural areas; Clinton's large lead is coming almost entirely from Southern California's huge base of Latino support.

Note that Obama won northern Florida -- the part most in sync with rural and red-state America, as he did the rural, conservative areas of all the other states (aside from Iowa, in which Edwards carried rural counties).

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Wed Jan 30, 2008 2:23 am
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Post Re: Super Duper Tuesday
It's gonna be a crazy race between Clinton and Obama, it should all come down to whose campaign is better organized.

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Wed Jan 30, 2008 2:55 pm
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Post Re: Super Duper Tuesday
Momentum

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Wed Jan 30, 2008 3:28 pm
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Post Re: Super Duper Tuesday
Angela Merkel wrote:


I think Hillary needs to come off as relaxed, playful, and focused at tomorrow night's debate. Obama's "momentum" is good but is it enough?

Super Tuesday is going to be one heck of an exciting day! :yes:


Wed Jan 30, 2008 3:41 pm
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Post Re: Super Duper Tuesday
Momentum

Democrats - NEW YORK
Clinton - 45%
Obama - 33%
Spread - 12%

Last New York poll
Clinton - 56%
Obama - 28%
Spread - 28%

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Wed Jan 30, 2008 6:27 pm
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Post Re: Super Duper Tuesday
The debate is going to be very important IMO.

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Wed Jan 30, 2008 6:38 pm
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Post Re: Super Duper Tuesday
It will be interesting how it plays out without Edwards.

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Wed Jan 30, 2008 6:42 pm
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Post Re: Super Duper Tuesday
Angela Merkel wrote:
It will be interesting how it plays out without Edwards.


Exactly. Someone is going to come out of tomorrow's debate gaining a few percentage.

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Post Re: Super Duper Tuesday
This is too nerve wracking. Truth be told, I would be happy with either Obama or Clinton in the White House. Of course, I have my favorite. But ultimately, either would be good change.

McCain is not as scary as Romney so I'm curious to see a debate between him and Hillary to see who looks more presidential and has the better answers.

Has there ever been such an exciting election campaign/process?


Wed Jan 30, 2008 7:14 pm
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Post Re: Super Duper Tuesday
No Country for Sam wrote:
This is too nerve wracking. Truth be told, I would be happy with either Obama or Clinton in the White House. Of course, I have my favorite. But ultimately, either would be good change.

McCain is not as scary as Romney so I'm curious to see a debate between him and Hillary to see who looks more presidential and has the better answers.

Has there ever been such an exciting election campaign/process?

The Florida recount was pretty exciting. I'm sure the uproar would have been much greater had the nation been informed of the Electoral College being a relic institution of slavery.

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Wed Jan 30, 2008 7:26 pm
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Post Re: Super Duper Tuesday
Angela Merkel wrote:
Momentum

Democrats - NEW YORK
Clinton - 45%
Obama - 33%
Spread - 12%

Last New York poll
Clinton - 56%
Obama - 28%
Spread - 28%


I do believe New York is a one party state, so no REPS/Independents can take part in the DEM contest, and no DEMS or Independents can take part in the REP contest. Polls will have to say if their sampling used only DEMs, and not any REPS and Independents, same with the REPS.

Delegate update:


DEMS:

Clinton: 256 (51%) (not sure where she gained more (10 I believe) from, I'm just going to assume she picked up some more SuperDelegates somewhere)
Obama: 181 (36%)
Edwards: 64 (13%)


REPS:

McCain: 93 (47%)
Romney: 59 (30%)
Huckabee: 40 (20%)
Paul: 4 (2%)
Giuliani: 1 (<1%)

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“Gods are great ... but the heart is greater. For it is from our hearts they come, and to our hearts they shall return.”
“We were like gods at the dawning of the world, & our joy was so bright we could see nothing else but the other.”
“There are three things all wise men fear: the sea in storm, a night with no moon, and the anger of a gentle man.”
“You have to pretend you get an endgame. You have to carry on like you will; otherwise, you can't carry on at all.”
"Paper is dead without words / Ink idle without a poem / All the world dead without stories."


Wed Jan 30, 2008 9:11 pm
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Post Re: Super Duper Tuesday
Angela Merkel wrote:
I can't wait for the next couple Northeastern polls. If Connecticut has fallen, and Massachusetts is likely to fall, what about New Jersey? How small can the gap be shrunk in New York? California is tightening as well -- Obama and Clinton are already tied in the Bay Area, and Obama likely leads in rural areas; Clinton's large lead is coming almost entirely from Southern California's huge base of Latino support.


Here is the new Massachusetts poll:

Clinton - 43%
Obama - 37%
Edwards - 11%

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12 Years a Slave - A-
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My thoughts on box office


Wed Jan 30, 2008 10:39 pm
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Post Re: Super Duper Tuesday
No Country for Sam wrote:
This is too nerve wracking. Truth be told, I would be happy with either Obama or Clinton in the White House. Of course, I have my favorite. But ultimately, either would be good change.

McCain is not as scary as Romney so I'm curious to see a debate between him and Hillary to see who looks more presidential and has the better answers.

Has there ever been such an exciting election campaign/process?


Not in my lifetime! And what makes it better is that this is the first election in something like 80 years when there wasn't an incumbent President or Vice President running, so both parties had to find their candidates from a bigger pool. And there is no huge front runner anywhere.

For political junkies like me, this is great!

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Wed Jan 30, 2008 10:52 pm
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Post Re: Super Duper Tuesday
Has there ever been a democrate nominee for president other than a white man???
If not then the party has made history already after Edwards stepping down.

:thumbsup:

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Thu Jan 31, 2008 12:20 am
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Post Re: Super Duper Tuesday
Rev wrote:
Has there ever been a democrate nominee for president other than a white man???
If not then the party has made history already after Edwards stepping down.

:thumbsup:

Abraham Lincoln may have been gay, but he's still a white man.

We need a lesbian, Hindu, obese Pacific-Islander with implants. Yes, diversity!

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Thu Jan 31, 2008 12:35 am
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Post Re: Super Duper Tuesday
Angela Merkel wrote:
Rev wrote:
Has there ever been a democrate nominee for president other than a white man???
If not then the party has made history already after Edwards stepping down.

:thumbsup:

Abraham Lincoln may have been gay, but he's still a white man.

We need a lesbian, Hindu, obese Pacific-Islander with implants. Yes, diversity!


seriously?

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