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 The 2005 Tracker: SAHARA and FEVER PITCH 
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Extraordinary
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Spiderman2005 wrote:

Yes in terms of surprises. Ring Two and Robots are going to do good, but what films are going to come out of nowhere. I have a feeling another horror film in Feb-Mar will open big.



Ok, if so, then I'll go with ib on this one and say Boogeyman, but honestly, there are so many coming out. Hide and Seek as well, but I think that will perform like that 2004 horror film with Robert DeNiro (the one with Rebecca Romjin Stamos about some clone kid).

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Sat Jan 15, 2005 4:29 pm
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box_2005 wrote:
Spiderman2005 wrote:

Yes in terms of surprises. Ring Two and Robots are going to do good, but what films are going to come out of nowhere. I have a feeling another horror film in Feb-Mar will open big.



Ok, if so, then I'll go with ib on this one and say Boogeyman, but honestly, there are so many coming out. Hide and Seek as well, but I think that will perform like that 2004 horror film with Robert DeNiro (the one with Rebecca Romjin Stamos about some clone kid).


the big suprize will be In Good Company when it crosses 100m :wink:

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Sat Jan 15, 2005 4:34 pm
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BJ wrote:
box_2005 wrote:
Spiderman2005 wrote:

Yes in terms of surprises. Ring Two and Robots are going to do good, but what films are going to come out of nowhere. I have a feeling another horror film in Feb-Mar will open big.



Ok, if so, then I'll go with ib on this one and say Boogeyman, but honestly, there are so many coming out. Hide and Seek as well, but I think that will perform like that 2004 horror film with Robert DeNiro (the one with Rebecca Romjin Stamos about some clone kid).


the big suprize will be In Good Company when it crosses 100m :wink:

It hasn't got a chance. ;)

It'll have a Big Fish-like run or perhaps slightly better. I'm predicting $68m.


Sat Jan 15, 2005 4:36 pm
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At first, Hide and Seek was looking a bit like a Godsend, but Daokta Fanning is turning out to be a good omen for movies, so i say this one will do pretty well and better than i had originally pegged it for.

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Sat Jan 15, 2005 4:37 pm
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Naturalflux7 wrote:
At first, Hide and Seek was looking a bit like a Godsend, but Daokta Fanning is turning out to be a good omen for movies, so i say this one will do pretty well and better than i had originally pegged it for.


Godsend! That's it, thank you! Lol, I totally forgot what it was called.


Anyways, Naturalflux, what did you originally predict for it?


I think this is yet aother film trying to imitate The Sixth Sense; a young child and the supernatural, haven't we seen that before?

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Briefs. Am used to them and boxers can get me in trouble it seems. Too much room and maybe the silkiness have created more than one awkward situation.


My Box-Office Blog: http://boxofficetracker.blogspot.com/


Sat Jan 15, 2005 4:39 pm
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Hide and Seek should perform like The Butterfly Effect with worse legs...$15.5/$43


Sat Jan 15, 2005 4:40 pm
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torrino wrote:
Hide and Seek should perform like The Butterfly Effect with worse legs...$15.5/$43



That is a very good opening for it. I've never had it higher than $10m.

I just checked, and it's opening in 2,500+ theatres opposite Alone in the Dark, which is opening in 2,000+ theatres. They might come in conflict with each other.

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MadGez wrote:
Briefs. Am used to them and boxers can get me in trouble it seems. Too much room and maybe the silkiness have created more than one awkward situation.


My Box-Office Blog: http://boxofficetracker.blogspot.com/


Sat Jan 15, 2005 4:42 pm
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box_2005 wrote:
torrino wrote:
Hide and Seek should perform like The Butterfly Effect with worse legs...$15.5/$43



That is a very good opening for it. I've never had it higher than $10m.

I just checked, and it's opening in 2,500+ theatres opposite Alone in the Dark, which is opening in 2,000+ theatres. They might come in conflict with each other.


Alone in the Dark is going to bomb!


Sat Jan 15, 2005 4:44 pm
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torrino wrote:
BJ wrote:
box_2005 wrote:
Spiderman2005 wrote:

Yes in terms of surprises. Ring Two and Robots are going to do good, but what films are going to come out of nowhere. I have a feeling another horror film in Feb-Mar will open big.



Ok, if so, then I'll go with ib on this one and say Boogeyman, but honestly, there are so many coming out. Hide and Seek as well, but I think that will perform like that 2004 horror film with Robert DeNiro (the one with Rebecca Romjin Stamos about some clone kid).


the big suprize will be In Good Company when it crosses 100m :wink:

It hasn't got a chance. ;)

It'll have a Big Fish-like run or perhaps slightly better. I'm predicting $68m.


oh as long as there is over a 1% chance BJ says 100m :wink: Big Fish was good but it didnt have a very wide apeal, I can amagin In Godd Company having a much larger apeal to the average movie goer thats why its opeing with more than big fish in way less theaters :wink:

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Sat Jan 15, 2005 4:44 pm
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BJ wrote:
torrino wrote:
BJ wrote:
box_2005 wrote:
Spiderman2005 wrote:

Yes in terms of surprises. Ring Two and Robots are going to do good, but what films are going to come out of nowhere. I have a feeling another horror film in Feb-Mar will open big.



Ok, if so, then I'll go with ib on this one and say Boogeyman, but honestly, there are so many coming out. Hide and Seek as well, but I think that will perform like that 2004 horror film with Robert DeNiro (the one with Rebecca Romjin Stamos about some clone kid).


the big suprize will be In Good Company when it crosses 100m :wink:

It hasn't got a chance. ;)

It'll have a Big Fish-like run or perhaps slightly better. I'm predicting $68m.


oh as long as there is over a 1% chance BJ says 100m :wink: Big Fish was good but it didnt have a very wide apeal, I can amagin In Godd Company having a much larger apeal to the average movie goer thats why its opeing with more than big fish in way less theaters :wink:

It'd need a multiplier close to 6. Even if it doesn't drop next weekend (or...increases to get to $16-17 to match the 4-day), it still won't be enough.


Sat Jan 15, 2005 4:46 pm
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Yeah, you need to be on a Ring level to get 100 million off a 15 million opener, and frankly I just don't know if COmpany has the juices. As for other surprises, I'd say that Boogeyman could surprise to a 20 million opening (maybe), Hitch could open over 40 million, Constantine could do over 30 million (doubt it though), The Pacifier could do over 30 million, Be Cool could do over 25 million, etc.


Sat Jan 15, 2005 4:50 pm
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torrino wrote:
BJ wrote:
torrino wrote:
BJ wrote:
box_2005 wrote:
Spiderman2005 wrote:

Yes in terms of surprises. Ring Two and Robots are going to do good, but what films are going to come out of nowhere. I have a feeling another horror film in Feb-Mar will open big.



Ok, if so, then I'll go with ib on this one and say Boogeyman, but honestly, there are so many coming out. Hide and Seek as well, but I think that will perform like that 2004 horror film with Robert DeNiro (the one with Rebecca Romjin Stamos about some clone kid).


the big suprize will be In Good Company when it crosses 100m :wink:

It hasn't got a chance. ;)

It'll have a Big Fish-like run or perhaps slightly better. I'm predicting $68m.


oh as long as there is over a 1% chance BJ says 100m :wink: Big Fish was good but it didnt have a very wide apeal, I can amagin In Godd Company having a much larger apeal to the average movie goer thats why its opeing with more than big fish in way less theaters :wink:

It'd need a multiplier close to 6. Even if it doesn't drop next weekend (or...increases to get to $16-17 to match the 4-day), it still won't be enough.


its still a posibility though :wink: a 6.0 multiplyer for this film is a definite posibility as I am expecting it to have the best multiplyer of 05. Ill give it three weeks to show that it can get there and if the performance is not on a 100m scale than 70m it will be :wink:

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Sat Jan 15, 2005 4:55 pm
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MovieDude wrote:
Yeah, you need to be on a Ring level to get 100 million off a 15 million opener, and frankly I just don't know if COmpany has the juices. As for other surprises, I'd say that Boogeyman could surprise to a 20 million opening (maybe), Hitch could open over 40 million, Constantine could do over 30 million (doubt it though), The Pacifier could do over 30 million, Be Cool could do over 25 million, etc.


this film opened with around 400 less theaters than the ring also, and its going to open with more over the three day, Im saying that this film has a much larger apeal than the ring and big fish thats why it will make more than big fish and probably be on par with the ring :wink: its WOM is just as good if not better than the otehr two and the film can only benifit from good WOM considering the tipe of film it is :wink:

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Sat Jan 15, 2005 5:00 pm
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Nah. The Ring was like "The Exorcist". It was a film that audiences hadn't seen before (in terms of originality...if only they knew it was a remake ;)), it was released at the perfect time (right before halloween), and established buzz in only 1500 theatres, so, when it expanded, it exploded. What was The Ring's opening weekend, btw. In Good Company looks to make around $14 for the 3-day.

Big Fish didn't have great WOM. But it did have good legs...;).

you guys should take this to my tracking thread ;)


Sat Jan 15, 2005 5:12 pm
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torrino wrote:
Nah. The Ring was like "The Exorcist". It was a film that audiences hadn't seen before (in terms of originality...if only they knew it was a remake ;)), it was released at the perfect time (right before halloween), and established buzz in only 1500 theatres, so, when it expanded, it exploded. What was The Ring's opening weekend, btw. In Good Company looks to make around $14 for the 3-day.

Big Fish didn't have great WOM. But it did have good legs...;).

you guys should take this to my tracking thread ;)


As far as I can recall, everyone I know loved Big Fish.

But anyway, I agree with your prediction for In Good Company. I see around $60-75 million for total.

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Sat Jan 15, 2005 5:19 pm
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torrino wrote:
Nah. The Ring was like "The Exorcist". It was a film that audiences hadn't seen before (in terms of originality...if only they knew it was a remake ;)), it was released at the perfect time (right before halloween), and established buzz in only 1500 theatres, so, when it expanded, it exploded. What was The Ring's opening weekend, btw. In Good Company looks to make around $14 for the 3-day.

Big Fish didn't have great WOM. But it did have good legs...;).

you guys should take this to my tracking thread ;)


ok from now any argument about this film will be in your tracking thread :wink:

The Ring opened to 15.02m in 1,981 theaters with a theater average of $7,579 :wink:

when we get to see the numbers tomorrow I expect as massive increase and Ive expained why it would have a big increase more than twise now. In Good Company will have a 3-day over 15m for sure and a 3-day over 16m is still a posibility. Eather way I expect it to make more than The Rings opening wknd with around 400 less theaters so an average over $10,000 for the wknd is to be expected. It only took the Ring 5 weeks to get to 100m this film will not be as big at first it will leg its way I expect 100m by the 11th wknd if not sooner its already opening with more money with less theaters. A film does not have to show anything new to be well recieved. There is plenty of films that proove that :wink:

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Sat Jan 15, 2005 5:27 pm
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Dr. Lecter wrote:
torrino wrote:
Nah. The Ring was like "The Exorcist". It was a film that audiences hadn't seen before (in terms of originality...if only they knew it was a remake ;)), it was released at the perfect time (right before halloween), and established buzz in only 1500 theatres, so, when it expanded, it exploded. What was The Ring's opening weekend, btw. In Good Company looks to make around $14 for the 3-day.

Big Fish didn't have great WOM. But it did have good legs...;).

you guys should take this to my tracking thread ;)


As far as I can recall, everyone I know loved Big Fish.

But anyway, I agree with your prediction for In Good Company. I see around $60-75 million for total.


Big fish opened with the maximum it could in over 2,400 theaters wit han average of $5,740 at 13.81m this film will crush this opening easily and make about 35m-40m more when all is said and done :wink:

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Sat Jan 15, 2005 5:33 pm
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SATURDAY NUMBERS
1. Coach Carter - $9.9m
2. Meet the Fockers - $8.1m
3. Racing Stripes - $6.0m
4. In Good Company - $5.9m
5. Elektra - $4.9m
6. White Noise - $4.6m
7. The Aviator - $2.3m
8. Lemony Snicket - $1.7m
9. Phantom of the Opera - $1.4m
10. Ocean's Twelve - $1.3m


Sun Jan 16, 2005 12:46 pm
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DOMESTIC 2005 YEARLY
1. White Noise - $37,500,000
2. Coach Carter - $18,100,000
3. In Good Company - $10,900,000
4. Elektra - $9,400,000
5. Racing Stripes - $9,300,000


Sun Jan 16, 2005 12:50 pm
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Spiderman2005 wrote:
DOMESTIC 2005 YEARLY
1. White Noise - $37,500,000
2. Coach Carter - $18,100,000
3. In Good Company - $10,900,000
4. Elektra - $9,400,000
5. Racing Stripes - $9,300,000


hehe, White Noise is the biggest grosser of 2005! They should be proud, lol.

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Sun Jan 16, 2005 2:57 pm
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Biggest Opening Weekends: January (Wide)



This refers to wide-release opening weekends, which is why films like Black Hawk Down and n Good Company are included. Underlined = 4-day weekends.


1 Star Wars (Special Edition) $35,906,661 | 2,104 | $17,065
2 Black Hawk Down $28,611,736 | 3,101 | $9,226
3 Along Came Polly $27,721,185 | 2,984 | $9,289
4 White Noise $24,113,565 | 2,261 | $10,665

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5 Coach Carter $23,600,000 | 2,524 | $9,350

6 Save the Last Dance $23,444,930 | 2,230 | $10,513
7 Snow Dogs $17,814,259 | 2,302 | $7,738
8 Just Married $17,548,993 | 2,766 | $6,344
9 Varsity Blues $17,515,723 | 2,121 | $8,258 4
10 The Butterfly Effect $17,065,227 | 2,605 | $6,550
11 Kangaroo Jack $16,580,209 | 2,818 | $5,883
12 The Recruit $16,302,063 | 2,376 | $6,861
13 You Got Served $16,123,105 | 1,933 | $8,340
14 She's All That $16,065,430 | 2,222 | $7,230
15 Final Destination 2 $16,017,141 | 2,834 | $5,651
16 Orange County $15,053,226 | 2,317 | $6,496
17 Next Friday $14,465,156 | 1,103 | $13,114
18 National Security $14,369,694 | 2,729 | $5,265
19 Legends of the Fall $14,038,128 | 2,005 | $7,001 [/u]

Image


20 Racing Stripes $14,030,000 | 3,185 | $4,405
21 In Good Company $13,890,000 | 1,566 | $8,869
22 Philadelphia $13,817,010 | 1,245 | $11,098 4
23 The Wedding Planner $13,510,293 | 2,785 | $4,851
24 Higher Learning $13,276,662 | 1,409 | $9,422

Image

25 Elektra $12,500,000 | 3,204 | $3,901
26 Beverly Hills Ninja $12,220,920 | 2,112 | $5,786 4
27 A Walk to Remember $12,177,488 | 2,411 | $5,050
28 Darkness Falls $12,024,917 | 2,837 | $4,238
29 Good Morning, Vietnam $11,752,913 | 785 | $14,971
30 Metro $11,411,107 | 2,001 | $5,702 4
31 The Count of Monte Cristo $11,376,150 | 2,007 | $5,668
32 The Mothman Prophecies $11,208,851 | 2,331 | $4,808
33 Spice World $10,527,222 | 2,339 | $4,500
34 Fallen $10,401,586 | 2,448 | $4,249 4
35 Good Will Hunting $10,261,471 | 1,787 | $5,742
36 From Dusk Till Dawn $10,240,805 | 2,004 | $5,110
37 Biker Boyz $10,106,992 | 1,766 | $5,723
38 Demon Knight $10,019,555 | 1,729 | $5,795 4

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Briefs. Am used to them and boxers can get me in trouble it seems. Too much room and maybe the silkiness have created more than one awkward situation.


My Box-Office Blog: http://boxofficetracker.blogspot.com/


Sun Jan 16, 2005 3:58 pm
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ooooh i forgot the slew of Horror movies next weekend.

I rekon HIDE AND SEEK will take the top with around $16M.

And ALONE IN THE DARK will end up with $6,000,000.


Sun Jan 16, 2005 6:36 pm
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CURSEDs budget is $35,000,000 according to IMDB, so if it opens over $15M, it's in the safe.


Sun Jan 16, 2005 6:37 pm
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DOMESTIC 2005 YEARLY
1. White Noise - $43,183,000
2. Coach Carter - $29,200,000
3. Racing Stripes - $18,555,000
4. In Good Company - $16,919,000
5. Elektra - $15,025,000



Added color to space the chart up! :wink:


Mon Jan 17, 2005 10:13 pm
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DOMESTIC 2005 YEARLY
1. White Noise - $44,390,650
2. Coach Carter - $32,241,815
3. Racing Stripes - $20,273,135
4. In Good Company - $19,440,457
5. Elektra - $16,407,637
6. Assault on Precinct 13 - $1,538,130


as of January 20, 2005


Fri Jan 21, 2005 7:26 pm
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