Great link, thanks.

I am trying to figure out why the VEP/VAP gap is so large now, though. Ever since 1996 it's gotten huge.

"Point is, turnouts for midterms are increasing, not the opposite like the stereotype goes."

Well its a silly assumption we make that a right wing party can only come to office if the turnout falls dramatically and that is not the case.

George Bush likley benefited from the increased turnout in 2004.

It's a generality, not an iron-clad rule. However, in an 80%+ turnout, I have no idea how close elections would go.

Well in such cases Senate and Presidental race favours democrats as that would mean minorities are voting in epic numbers.


IMO if the GOP want to ensure better chance they need to appeal to minorities and it is possible. The conservatives here in Canada are quite popular with Suburban middle class and upper class minorities.

That'd require one hell of a shift. The GOP has thrived on racial resentment since Goldwater. Now they cloak it in "welfare queen" rhetoric, or stuff about lazy people on handouts, or an undue obsession with the border (never mind that illegal immigration has actually begun to wane in the last couple of years thanks to the economy). They aren't going to gain any minorities until they stop talking shit about them in code.

I mean, you have to remember, the age-old idea of white privilege giving common whites some rank is collapsing, and that makes a lot of people mad. It's simply not something you guys have in Canada.

yeah but the Conservatives are getting tough on immigration and actually a lot immigrants agree. However they are doing so in humane and sensible manner unlike what is going on in your country.

However to be the problem of illegal immigration is quite small here. Mostly the focus is stooping bogus refugees and people who come on visas marry someone for a year or two and then become permanent.


As I said the perceptions of the GOP and Democrats was quite the opposite a long time ago. We always forget but the GOP was the party of Lincoln.

Yep. The Tancredos of the country poison the well on curbing illegal immigration by making the rhetoric so venomous. And American minorities know when there's racism bubbling underneath (or over the lid).

If the GOP want to survive they need to appeal to younger people like 25-40.

It sounds crazy but Ronald Reagan was quite popular with young people back in the 80's, I think he won the youth vote in 1984 lol. Ron Paul base is mostly is younger people.

Young people under 30 or so are not all left leaning, its that a lot of the more politically active are left leaning. When it comes to social issues most are liberally, but other things its more a mixed view.


When I was in my teens I was a liberal but I become a realist and conservative ideology was more appealing to me. In the end I am likley a centrist.

Like I support gay marriage, people should be able to smoke pot. I am against a women having an abortion for superficial reasons or after a few months into their pregnancy. I am against open prostitution and do support the death penalty for the most heinous of crimes (not to the average murderer).

GOP made a huge mistake letting all the youth vote/minority vote go to the democrats. It all comes down to them going from a right wing party to a radical right wing party.

Its funny here in Canada, well over 6 in ten support the death penalty but less then half actually want it to be reinstated. I think most people agree with the idea but think going back to the death penalty is a step back in time.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Death_pena ... ic_opinion

When it comes to abortion most people are in favour of it but I think many find the idea of doing so in a late stage as disgusting and vile. Why this has not become law is beyond me...The fact any mother can suggest something able to kick her in the inside not be alive or a living thing is beyond me. It is rare, (like less than 2%), however it is likley the only moral issue I really passionately for.

Even the crazy dutch agree with this view
http://www.angus-reid.com/polls/29653/d ... abortions/

I don't see it happening in the short or medium term because the social conservatives took over and have to hog the limelight. And that's no way for them to appeal to the young.

And I just don't see the social conservatives going away as a force for a while. Mean-spirited reactionary thought is as old as time and always organized in some way.

yeah but things change over time, some parties realize after decades of defeat that finally they need to change their thinking lol...

Except the GOP has been dominate since the 1980s, that's why I'll never understand this whole "Republican Revolution" Revolution? What from themselves?

Pretty much. The center cannot hold here. We're in the process of a big shift.

I still think America is a centre right country and remain one for some time...

The thing is what you think is Centre Right is Republicans but to me GOP is not centre right but hard right.

Democrats are mostly centrists and many are centre right.

Agreed. To call Democrats the liberal party is ridiculous. We don't have a liberal party in America. (Oh sure, there are a liberal Democrats, but they are in the minority in the party).

We basically have a conservative party and a moderate party here.

America isn't a center-right country. It's just governed like one. More than anything America is a fairly apathetic country.

Lol I agree

Why do you insist on saying stuff like this? Do you not find it in the least self-serving and laughable? I am not saying the opposite is true or isn't true, but I know if I said it you would laugh your ass off.

Probably. I see Americans in two camps: One is made of those that follow politics and care about politics. These people are either liberal or conservative (to simplify). They support political parties or at least have a political philosophy. The second group is made of those that don't follow politics. They are self-described moderates. They aren't really moderates in the sense that they split the difference between the two extremes. Rather, they simply know little about politics and self-describe as moderates because they can use that as a crutch for knowing nothing. Some in this group muster the strength to come out and vote every four years. Many do not.

Sometimes I think Obama is no less conservative than Nixon.

At least from point of view, if you were to say that, I would call you insightful.

I don't see Nixon as a conservative and do not see Obama as corrupt. Nixon was more like a corrupt opportunist. Certainly he was to the right of McGovern, but on most issues he seemed mostly non-partisan, to a great extent. He could fairly be called the greatest president on the environment that we have ever had, even though I bet that he did not much care for the issue on a personal level. I don't see Watergate as a right/left issue; rather as evidence of the power hungry nature of all politicians of all stripes.

As I said the country has moved to the right over the past 20-30 years.

I am not saying it has become right wing.


So even democrats act very much like old school republicans.