The tides are turning back against McCain.

Not so much pro-Obama as anti-McCain, but I think that's what the Dems need right now anyways.

Yeah, the Palin bounce was just that -- as predicted. They're called bounces for a reason; you bounce up and then right back down again.

Where are you seeing this bounce?

I'm on the Obama side, but as far as I can tell -- it's looking closer and closer everyday. Electoral-Vote is showing a tie in Pennsylvania now. Pennsylvania hadn't been tied since February.

In the overall polls, it's tied. Some state polls are old (even a few days makes a difference), but the trend is definitely moving back Obama's way.

I have to think the worse things may get before the election, the more it could favor McCain.

Why?? I would think the worse things get, the more people will sense that he isn't change.

Mainly because I think many undecideds and moderates view Obama as a risk/chance candidate right now. Still unsure about him, even if they like him. If the country is hit with some disaster (not like a terrorist attack or something, but the economy and other things matter too), I'm not sure they would pick an unfamiliar candidate election day. I think we sorta saw this with OH and TX during the primaries when Clinton ran the 3AM "Is he ready?" Red Phone ads. The late deciders (undecides and moderates mostly) went for Clinton (the familiar candidate) in the last day or two, especially after that ad.

It's because the McCain campaign deliberately picked a fight with the press. There's the old saying, don't get into an argument with people who buy ink by the barrel.

Dear Chris,

You are a trusting sort of soul.

Condolences,
-Dolcinea

My two cents:

Things are going to get ugly (duh). They are only going to do so about 2 weeks before the election so that Obama will not have time to regroup and respond. Until then, everything is going to be quiet, and its going to be all Palin. She's a nice distraction for now.

Dems better thank Hillary for getting Wright out in the open early. He's old news now, and McCain will have to come up with something else.

Here's hoping the debates change everything around when the real issues pop up. Do they always have a big effect on the polls? Like 5%+?

only if obama wins and really Obama got owned by Hilary...


Plus imo McCain will launch increasingly negative ads which will excite his base.

The reason why this election went from Obama leading to being tied is because Republicans are now energized.

The economy can swing in it in Obama's favor. The democrats always have the advantages in that regard. I still think it will be a close election and am hopeful that Obama can win or else this country is just screwed and will make me want to move to Europe.

Some conservatives are speculating on the John Major effect. Republicans fight off defeat now and win only to face an even longer exile later.

One has to imagine that there must be some accountability for the party of abject failure at governing. But as we've seen in McCain's economic adviser and her tenure at HP, among the rich and powerful you tend to fail upward.

Wasn't John McCain quoted once as saying he doesn't really know the economy that well?

If McCain wins, we still have a democratic congress. Although, they would really need to step it up.

The new Gallup Daily Tracking poll has Obama up 47%-45%...big one day bump from the one point lead McCain held yesterday.

Yeah this story got buried. Its bound to resurface again though.

The reason it hasn't it because of the source of it: Amir Tahiri, the guy who broke the FAKE story about Iran introducing a law that was going to require Jews to wear indentifiable clothing (arm bands I believe he said). He is very close to the Neo Cons, and has absolutely no trouble with creating fake stories in order to push propaganda. He's a known liar. No wonder the story hasn't gotten any farther.

Zogby and NY Times both swung to Obama today as well. Other polls have it tied. Still, the dow's drop isn't even reflected in these polls.

Fair enough. It should stay buried then.

New CBS Poll

M: 43
O: 48

This part caught my eye: Obama leads McCain 54 percent to 38 percent among all women. He holds a two point edge among white women, a 21 percentage point swing in Obama's direction from one week ago.

The National polls are varying so greatly that imo the only real accurate polls are the State polls.

The national polls are pretty consistent. Gallup, CBS and Rasmussen all have O ahead.

Like it weird how support among White voters shifts so much...